|
| |
Here is some research I've worked on in the last week about Sheets and his contract extension....the stats used for Sheets are approx.one week old.
***
One of the big questions about extending Ben Sheets' contract is whether or not the Brewers can afford the contract that Sheets is likely to receive...
Well, let's take a look at some of the deals given to the most comparable pitchers in the past few years -- these are deals I'm counting as after arby-buyout type deals, like the 4/$36 deal Sheets signed in 2005. There are a surprising number of very comparable pitchers, guys like Aaron Harang and Josh Beckett, that are on deals like this right now. I didn't include them because, frankly, they're unrealistic to compare to a pitcher of Sheets' service time facing FA for the first time.
So, I found ten deals on Cot's Baseball Contracts I'd like to analyze. Those contracts are for Johan Santana, Barry Zito, A.J. Burnett, Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter, Mark Buehrle, Jason Schmidt, and Jake Peavy.
Here I've included the deal they signed, the month and year they signed it, and their career stats up to their point (if a deal was signed before July, I did not include that current year's starts. If a deal was signed after July, I included the full stats from that year, simply for convenience of calculation). I have also included top/best ERA, low/worst ERA, and median ERA.
Top, Low, and Median ERA only calculated for seasons with 17 or more starts
Ben Sheets: 73-74, 190 GS, 13 CG, 1 SHO, 1229.7 IP, 1221 H, 576 R, 1048 K/266 BB;
Top ERA: 2.70 Low ERA: 4.76 Median ERA: 3.82
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): 93-44, 251 G, 175 GS, 6 CG, 3 SHO, 1308 IP, 1068 H, 500 R, 1381 K/364 BB
Top ERA: 2.61 Low ERA: 3.33 Median ERA: 2.87
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010): 76-51, 172 GS, 5 CG, 3 SHO, 1087.3 IP, 943 H, 427 R, 1090 K/348 BB;
Top ERA: 2.27 Low ERA: 4.52 Median ERA: 3.49
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): 82-55, 201 G, 180 GS, 7 CG, 2 SHO, 1193.3 IP, 986 H, 506 R, 1042 K/548 BB;
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 3.95 Median ERA: 3.26
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56): 107-75, 259 G, 234 GS, 22 CG, 7 SHO, 1629 IP, 1681 H, 770 R, 943 K/373 BB;
Top ERA: 3.12 Low ERA: 4.99 Median ERA: 3.63
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): 98-47, 188 G, 177 GS, 11 CG, 4 SHO, 1201.3 IP, 1153 H, 443 R, 1016 K/263 BB
Top ERA: 2.73 Low ERA: 3.49 Median ERA: 2.97
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): 102-63, 222 GS, 9 CG, 4 SHO, 1430.3 IP, 1228 H, 620 R, 1096 K/560 BB;
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 4.48 Median ERA: 3.66
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5): 100-68, 245 G, 228 GS, 25 CG, 12 SHO, 1516 IP, 1551 H, 758 R, 1161 K/463 BB;
Top ERA: 2.83 Low ERA: 6.26 Median ERA: 4.09
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47): 127-90, 313 G, 304 GS, 20 CG, 9 SHO, 1953 IP, 1798 H, 926 R, 1728 K/766 BB
Top ERA: 2.34 Low ERA: 4.60 Median ERA: 3.83
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55): 49-50, 134 G, 131 GS, 14 CG, 8 SHO, 853.7 IP, 719 H, 395 R, 753 K/377 BB;
Top ERA: 3.30 Low ERA: 4.05 Median ERA: 3.53
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): 92-39, 183 GS, 16 CG, 8 SHO, 1240.7 IP, 1134 H, 509 R, 899 K/382 BB;
Top ERA: 2.70 Low ERA: 4.14 Median ERA: 3.32
Now, that's a lot of data. How should we digest it? For, there are contracts all over the place -- Hudson and Burnett have older contracts that are likely less relevant; also, there are significant differences between the Zambrano and Zito deals because one occurred on the open market, and one was a team extension. The same goes for Johan Santana and Mark Buehrle.
Jake Peavy's contract is the most interesting of the bunch -- he actually signed a contract for the future (I wonder if we can do that for Braun, haha!), which will not take the place of his current deal or the 2009 option. Because his deal binds for the future, and is an extension, I find it to be a very relevant deal to consider for Sheets' situation, for a mid-season contract. It's one further bargaining chip to create a proper value for Sheets.
Sub-division One: Extensions. This group is more relevant if Sheets is renewed during the season:
Extensions: 32/$520.5; ($16.27 million average, $22.9 million high; $14.6 median)
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5):
Top ERA: 2.61 Low ERA: 3.33 Median ERA: 2.87 (22.9)
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5):
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 3.95 Median ERA: 3.26 (18.3)
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010):
Top ERA: 2.27 Low ERA: 4.52 Median ERA: 3.49 (17.33)
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73):
Top ERA: 2.73 Low ERA: 3.49 Median ERA: 2.97 (14.6)
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56):
Top ERA: 3.12 Low ERA: 4.99 Median ERA: 3.63 (14)
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5):
Top ERA: 2.83 Low ERA: 6.26 Median ERA: 4.09 (12.7)
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47):
Top ERA: 2.70 Low ERA: 4.14 Median ERA: 3.32 (11.75)
Sub-division Two: Free Agency. This is very relevant for after the season:
Free Agents: 15/$228; ($15.2 million average, $18 million high; $15.67 median)
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126):
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 4.48 Median ERA: 3.66 (18)
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47):
Top ERA: 2.34 Low ERA: 4.60 Median ERA: 3.83 (15.67)
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55):
Top ERA: 3.30 Low ERA: 4.05 Median ERA: 3.53 (11)
So, now we have a range of yearly figures, from $14.6 million to $22.9 million for extensions, and $15.2 million to $18 million for free agency. Anything below $15 is low, and anything over $20 seems high for Sheets' case (he's good, but he's not Johan Santana).
We can get this figure even more specific for Sheets based on performance comparisons, from various points of view:
Sub-Division Three: Median ERA. These are the very middle ERA figures from each player's career.
By Median ERA:
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): Median ERA: 2.87
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): Median ERA: 2.97
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): Median ERA: 3.26
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): Median ERA: 3.32
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010): Median ERA: 3.49
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55): Median ERA: 3.53
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56): Median ERA: 3.63
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): Median ERA: 3.66
Ben Sheets: Median ERA: 3.82
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47): Median ERA: 3.83
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5): Median ERA: 4.09
If we look at his median performance, Sheets is towards the lower end of the pack of recent contracts. Obviously even a median of 3.82 is still a very good ERA, but it separates Sheets from Santana, Oswalt, Hudson, Zambrano, and Peavy. The separation from Santana is crucial here. Being closer to Peavy is a very good thing -- better than being closer to Zambrano for good reasons (Peavy signed a deal for fewer years, and a much more manageable contract than Zambrano).
Sub-Division Four: Top ERA. This is each pitcher's best ERA:
By Top ERA:
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010): Top ERA: 2.27
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47): Top ERA: 2.34
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): Top ERA: 2.61
Ben Sheets: Top ERA: 2.70
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): Top ERA: 2.70
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): Top ERA: 2.73
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): Top ERA: 2.75
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): Top ERA: 2.75
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5): Top ERA: 2.83
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56): Top ERA: 3.12
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55): Top ERA: 3.30
Now we have a different picture of Sheets. His median is a bit lower, but he obviously has an upside as good as just about any of these guys. This seems to give Sheets a type of range for his contract that is different than a guy like Zambrano, Peavy, or Santana, who have top ERAs much closer to their median ERA. Sheets simply has a different career arc than some of these guys, which is perfectly fine, and it might actually be helpful for the Brewers' chances of landing Sheets. That's not saying Sheets is a bad pitcher or is not as worthy of a large contract; it just means that Sheets' large contract ought to be structured differently and worth something a little bit different.
Sub-Division Five: Career average. This uses the index of their quality start average ((IP/GS)/(runs average)) to rank the players. Career Average
Roy Oswalt (1.92): 3.32 runs average, 6.39 IP/G
Tim Hudson (1.84): 3.69 runs average, 6.78 IP/GS
Jake Peavy (1.79): 3.53 runs average, 6.32 IP/GS
Johan Santana (1.51): 3.44 runs average, 5.21 IP/G*
Barry Zito (1.65): 3.90 runs average, 6.44 IP/GS
Carlos Zambrano (1.55): 3.82 runs average, 5.94 IP/G
A.J. Burnett (1.53): 4.16 runs average, 6.37 IP/G
Ben Sheets (1.53): 4.22 runs average, 6.47 IP/GS
Mark Buehrle (1.48): 4.25 runs average, 6.29 IP/G
Jason Schmidt (1.46): 4.27 runs average, 6.24 IP/G
Chris Carpenter (1.38): 4.50 runs average, 6.19 IP/G
* moved up due to median ERA and top ERA, and note that extensive use as a reliever distorts his career stats more than anyone else, and to a large degree.
Once again, we find Sheets with a very good performance, but in the middle of the pack -- here it's clear that he's separated from Oswalt, Hudson, Peavy, and Santana. This puts him in the dubious company of Barry $ito and Carlos Zambrano, but it also puts him in the favorable company of A.J. Burnett (even though his contract is older) and Mark Buehrle.
So, here are Sheets' closest performance ranges for developing a contract value:
Contract Ranges: Sheets' closest comparisons by the categories above. For different value comparisons, I have thrown out older contracts that might be somewhat irrelevant where necessary: By Career Average
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5):
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56):
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126):
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55):
Total: 21/$328.5 Average: 1/$15.64
w/o Burnett: 16/$273.5 (1/$17.09)
By Median ERA
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56):
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126):
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47):
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5):
Total: 19/292.5 Average: 1/15.39
w/o Schmidt and Carpenter: 11/182 ($16.54) By Top ERA
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): Top ERA: 2.61
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): Top ERA: 2.70
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): Top ERA: 2.73
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): Top ERA: 2.75
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): Top ERA: 2.75
Total: 27/475 Average: 1/$17.59
w/o Hudson: 23/428 ($18.61)
So, that leaves us with this aggregate contract range...
Aggregate:
Total: 21/$328.5 Average: 1/$15.64
w/o Burnett: 16/$273.5 (1/$17.09)
Total: 19/292.5 Average: 1/15.39
w/o Schmidt and Carpenter: 11/182 ($16.54)
Total: 27/475 Average: 1/$17.59
w/o Hudson: 23/428 ($18.61)
117/$1979.5 (1/$16.92)
....and, more importantly, the last four contracts:
Last four contracts:
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5)
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010)
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5)
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56)
So, now we have a very good picture of Sheets' value range. I have not included more specific calculations of service time, which may or may not be relevant, and I obviously have not included things like a personal preference to go to a proven contender, a big market, or a hot city, because I obviously do not know Sheets' personal preferences.
***
Given the above information, I have three deals ready for Sheets...
1. "The Sucker Deal." I sell Sheets on the short term competition window for this team, and I offer him a brief, 2/$40 contract. Sheets takes the contract because it puts him back on the market before he's 33, and gives him the shot for another big contract. The Brewers benefit from the terms of the deal because of the lack of long-term risk. Everybody wins.
2. "The Peavy Deal." Straight up. I offer 3/$52 million. Realistically, it benefits Sheets because it adds another year of security at a very good price, and frankly, it prices him in a Top ERA, Career Average, and Median ERA group that is very elite. Jake Peavy was not on one of his close comparisons in any of those categories, and if I'm negotiating with Sheets I tell him up front that I want to pay him like one of the best pitchers in the game because he's that valuable to the Milwaukee Brewers and their plans for contention. I tell him that I know that his top value is close to Peavy, and that he could have a very good chance to produce great numbers over a 3-year span, and hey, he'll still have the chance to get that deal before he turns 34. Everybody wins.
3. "The Big Deal." This is the money deal, the one with more long term Brewers' risk. I offer Sheets 4/$75 million. This contract is perfect value, because it is exactly between the Santana, Buehrle, Peavy, and Zambrano deals. Who can argue with that? It also gives Sheets very good security, but the length of years is not so long that the Brewers will be hung by the contract. Given the scarcity of pitchers near Sheets' caliber in the MLB, he deserves a contract that pays him exactly like the big guns that have signed contracts before him. For a career standpoint, this is a valuable deal for Sheets to sign because it does slot him above a guy like Buehrle, and places him behind Santana, and it actually pays him better than Peavy as well.
Sheets absolutely wins with this deal, and the Brewers gain his services for a long enough period of time to play with the current core for another year, and also with the full offensive arsenal that includes Gamel and LaPorta. It also opens the possibility of seeing Sheets as rotation mates with Yovani Gallardo for four years, and maybe even Jeremy Jeffress for a year (maybe more, probably not). If Parra can stay healthy, it keeps considerable power in our rotation for years to come, and limits the number of softer, sinkerballer pitchers we need to use.
|
|
|