Following a solid 7 IP outing in Houston, where Sheets did not have his best stuff early and worked his way to a quality start late in the game, the Brewers' ace has pitched 5 consecutive quality starts. This is all following the 6 run blow-up against the Dodgers, about which Sheets felt personally responsible and embarassed. Five consecutive appearances by "angry Ben" has really helped the Brewers along, with the ace working into the 9th twice during the stretch, and averaging better than 7 IP a start over those 5 GS.

One thing that bothers me about Sheets' recent rampage is Yost's pitch count tactics with the ace. Yesterday, for instance, Sheets had battled for the quality start after 6 IP, which were fairly inefficient, given his pitch count. Yost allowed the ace to pitch one more inning, which effectively torched his pitch count; Sheets finished the 7th inning with 117 pitches, a count of well over 16.5 pitches per IP.

Sheets is having a stellar season for the Brewers right now, and from his comments after the Pittsburgh complete game, he has taken the rotation on his own shoulders and is determined to lead the team. I think it is clear that this veteran leadership is invaluable to the Brewers.

Part of me wonders, however, what the consequences will be if Yost keeps allowing Sheets to rack up the pitches. After a relatively efficient start to the season, compared to his career norms, Sheets' efficiency has regressed slightly over his last 5 starts, and his pitch efficiency has ballooned in his three most recent starts. Perhaps this can be attributed to his start at Coors, which was more taxing on Sheets' arm because of the atmosphere and game conditions in Denver; perhaps a stretch of starts at home in humid Miller Park will help the ace along.

Here is a breakdown of Sheets' pitch efficiency, using the Dodgers' start at Miller Park as a breaking point for the early season, given Sheets' comments about that start (it serves as a type of watershed for Sheets' season thus far):

First 8 starts: 52.7 IP, 787 NP (43 K/12 BB) = 14.93 NP/IP

Last 5 starts: 36.3 IP, 548 NP (29 K/5 BB) = 15.10 NP/IP

Last three starts: 21.7 IP, 339 NP (17 K/5 BB) = 15.62 NP/IP

The jump between the first 8 starts and the last 5 starts is not awful; it basically amounts to little more than one extra pitch per 7 innings for the ace. However, the trend in the last three starts is more alarming. Compared with his earlier efficiency numbers, the NP/IP above 15.60 means that Sheets is throwing roughly 4 or 5 more pitches per 7 IP. That does not seem entirely alarming over the course of three games, but if an entire 34 game season of 7 IP starts progressed at that rate, Sheets would amass up to 170 more pitches on his arm (which would equal approx. 1.5 extra GS workload).

It is difficult to pinpoint why the ace is throwing more pitches, however:

First eight starts: 7.34 K/9 IP, 2.05 BB/9 IP; 3.58 K/BB; 59 GO/54 AO; 1.02 WHIP

Last five starts: 7.19 K/9 IP, 1.24 BB/9 IP; 5.80 K/BB; 45 GO/34 AO; 1.16 WHIP

Last three starts: 7.05 K/9 IP, 2.07 BB/9 IP; 3.40 K/BB; 29 GO/17 AO; 1.11 WHIP

Sheets' strike out rate per 9 IP is lower, and is walk rate is almost equal to his first eight starts, when he was much more efficient. He is allowing more baserunners than earlier in the season, and he is also pitching more ground outs than earlier in the season. As I mentioned above, this could be the result of pitching at Coors, where Sheets was likely attempting to sink the ball, relying heavily on his fastball and not using his curveball very much. The result was an outing of 100 pitches in 6 IP (16.67 NP/IP), with 11 ground outs (vs. 4 air outs).

Perhaps the key for Sheets is not necessarily striking out fewer batters in order to pitch more efficiently, but to pitch a greater number of air outs.

Of course, that also could mean more home runs allowed:

First eight starts: 7 HR; 1.20 HR/9 IP

Last five starts: 4 HR; 0.99 HR/9 IP

Last three starts: 2 HR; 0.83 HR/9 IP

Ironically, Sheets' pitch efficiency is better when he allows more HR per 9 IP. Given his style of pitching, he seems to be most effective when he allows the HR ball, records air outs, and strikes out a bunch:

Career: 15.39 NP/IP; 7.64 K/9 IP, 1.93 BB/9 IP, 3.96 K/BB; 1389 GO/1397 AO; 1.20 WHIP; 1.05 HR/9 IP

If he could maintain a career line, perhaps improving on the efficiency slightly, he will lower the workload on his arm.

I probably do not need to mention it, but the more inefficient starts that Yost allows Sheets to rack up on his arm, and the larger Sheets' workload, the more question marks could be raised for his long term viability in the organization. Perhaps Yost is allowing Sheets to pitch long, inefficient starts recently because he knows the current status of the organization's negotiations with Sheets; Yost probably knows the odds of the Brewers signing Sheets better than anyone.

Yet, given the chance, any chance whatsoever, that the Brewers could re-sign Sheets, his workload in 2008 will suddenly become a salient point. Hopefully the issue will be resolved easily with a stretch of efficient starts by Sheets, pitching in a familiar environment (or, at least, pitching somewhere closer to sea level).