Suddenly Starting Pitching!

Our pitching staff has really turned it around since the Dodgers series, when Sheets finished that series with the now infamous 6 run 7th inning. Even more impressive, the turnaround since the Dodgers series includes the Red Sox sweep of the Brewers, so when we look at the team's 16-12 record since May 15, we're really talking about a 16-9 record since May 18. That's very good.

Here's the drastic change: despite losing Yo Gallardo, removing Villanueva from the rotation and moving McClung into the rotation really stabilized the rotation, and McClung's recent success combines with five consecutive quality starts from Sheets, a higher percentage of quality starts from Parra, and a more even performance from Suppan. The only trouble in the rotation currently comes from Bush, the only Brewers starter that has not improved (well, that's a lie. He's improved from a 6.48 runs average to a 5.91 runs average. But you get the picture).

Compare...

Through May 15: 10-13, 41 GS, 238.3 IP, 257 H, 132 R, 156 K/88 BB; 18 quality starts

Dave Bush:                 1-4, 6 GS, 34.7 IP, 35 H, 25 R, 20 K/16 BB; 2 quality starts

Ben Sheets:                 4-1, 8 GS, 52.7 IP, 42 H, 20 R, 43 K/12 BB; 4 quality starts

Manny Parra:               1-2, 8 GS, 39.3 IP, 48 H, 25 R, 30 K/22 BB; 1 quality start

Jeff Suppan:                2-2, 8 GS, 46.7 IP, 54 H, 27 R, 21 K/19 BB; 5 quality starts

Carlos Villanueva:       2-4, 8 GS, 45 IP, 59 H, 31 R, 28 K/13 BB; 3 quality starts

Yovani Gallardo:        0-0, 3 GS, 20 IP, 19 H, 4 R, 13 K/6 BB; 3 quality starts

...with...

After May 15: 13-8, 28 GS, 170.7 IP, 169 H, 76 R, 119 K/44 BB;  15 quality starts

Dave Bush:                 1-3, 6 GS, 35 IP, 39 H, 23 R, 17 K/6 BB; 2 quality starts

Ben Sheets:                 3-0, 5 GS, 36.7 IP, 37 H, 8 R, 29 K/5 BB; 5 quality starts

Manny Parra:               4-0, 5 GS, 28.3 IP, 29 H, 13 R, 26 K/10 BB; 2 quality starts

Jeff Suppan:                2-2, 6 GS, 39 IP, 34 H, 16 R, 25 K/16 BB; 3 quality starts

Carlos Villanueva:       0-1, 1 GS, 4 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 3 K/2 BB; 0 quality starts

Seth McClung:            3-2, 5 GS, 27.7 IP, 25 H, 13 R, 18 K/7 BB; 3 quality starts

The differences, overall, are quite significant:

Through May 15: 4.99 runs average, 5.81 IP/GS; 43.9% quality starts

After May 15: 4.01 runs average, 6.10 IP/GS; 53.6% quality starts

10% better in the quality start department, and while pitching one out deeper into each start (on average), the rotation is also averaging almost one less run per 9 IP. That's a very high drop.

Even better, the peripherals have improved, so it's not like this improvement is smoke and mirrors:

Through May 15: 1.45 WHIP, 9.71 H/9 IP, 5.89 K/9 IP, 3.32 BB/9 IP, 1.77 K/BB            

After May 15: 1.25 WHIP, 8.91 H/9 IP, 6.27 K/9 IP, 2.32 BB/9 IP, 2.70 K/BB

Allowing fewer baserunners, striking out more, and allowing fewer walks (resulting in more strike outs per walk) accounts for the whole sale runs average and IP/GS improvements, and of course, a higher percentage of quality starts.

For a more concrete idea of what these numbers mean, here's how each average start would look from both portions of the season:

Through May 15: 5.81 IP, 6.27 H, 3.22 R, 3.80 K/2.14 BB

After May 15: 6.10 IP, 6.04 H, 2.72 R, 4.25 K/1.57 BB

Really, on a per-start basis, that improvement is very good.

Now, I honestly do not think we can expect all aspects of these wholesale improvements to continue. I think Suppan is pitching over his head, and McClung might come back down a little bit from his recent success. After 68 IP, Parra is getting to the point where he will become a complete wildcard; it really is unclear just how much we should expect from him. In roughly six more starts, we will see him reach the 100 IP plateau, and in 12 starts we will see him near his career high for IP. Given these factors, it's difficult to project anything from Manny (although he certainly has the stuff to succeed).

Sheets is pitching like Sheets, and on the other side of the coin, Bush really is due to improve, and there's always the chance at another stint with CV.

Another factor has to be the impending trade deadline, where the Brewers' rotation has a real chance to improve, both in terms of depth and in terms of quality IP. if the Crew can acquire another quality starter to fill in the middle rotation, the pressure will be eased off of Parra and Suppan, and either Bush or McClung can be switched out of the rotation completely.

Given the trade deadline, and the recent success across the board, a level of performance near this current level should be attainable, although there will probably be more rough patches to come.

All in all, it's quite a good thing to have a rotation carrying a ballclub.

Comments

 

Round ‘em Up: Tuesday « BrewersNation said:

Pingback from  Round ‘em Up: Tuesday « BrewersNation

June 17, 2008 12:18 PM

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About This Blog

I'm Nicholas Zettel, and I've got the Junkball Blues. All I need for a cure is a sinkerball pitcher here, a curveball specialist there, and a bunch of guys with fastballs that top out in the high-80s. And those days when the knuckleball wasn't a speciality pitch, and pitchers simply kept one in their back pocket? That's what I'm talking about!

I write for Sportsbubbler.com, and this is the research I compile along the way. I love power-speed combo players, garbage time relievers, and the walking medicine cabinets that played baseball in the 1960s and 1970s, and got away with it.
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