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Ben Sheets and Quality Starts

After a fine 6-3 homestand, the Crew started the road trip off with a bang, scoring four runs behind a CG, four hitter by Ben Sheets. Sheets is currently in one of his zones, working his consecutive quality starts streak to seven games and running. His quality starts come in the midst of an overall rotation production surge, and tonight's was especially welcome because of the sudden number of short outings against the Orioles, and also because Sheets finally worked a very efficient start once again -- tonight he pitched the full game in the number of pitches normally needed for a 7 IP outing.

Of course, these quality start streaks for Sheets are nothing new, but we might be in the midst of one of his best quality starts streaks of his career:

1. 6/29/05-8/10/05: 5-2, 9 GS, 68 IP, 55 H, 19 R, 60 K/8 BB; 2.51 runs average, 7.56 IP/GS

2. 4/20/04-6/8/04: 3-3, 9 GS, 67.7 IP, 46 H, 19 R, 66 K/8 BB; 2.53 runs average, 7.52 IP/GS

3. 8/28/04-10/2/04: 3-4, 8 GS, 60 IP, 45 H, 15 R, 67 K/8 BB; 2.25 runs average, 7.50 IP/GS

4. 5/1/07-6/9/07: 5-1, 8 GS, 51.3 IP, 48 H, 15 R, 41 K/11 BB; 2.63 runs average, 6.41 IP/GS

5. 5/21/08-6/23/08: 5-0, 7 GS, 51.7 IP, 45 H, 11 R, 41 K/9 BB; 1.91 runs average, 7.39 IP/GS

6. 5/9/02-6/7/02: 1-3, 6 GS, 39.7 IP, 40 H, 14 R, 28 K/18 BB; 3.17 runs average, 6.62 IP/GS

7. 8/23/06-9/13/06: 2-1, 5 GS, 35.7 IP, 25 H, 10 R, 37 K/3 BB; 2.52 runs average, 7.14 IP/GS

8. 7/19/03-8/3/03: 3-1, 4 GS, 26.7 IP, 25 H, 6 R, 18 K/2 BB; 2.02 runs average, 6.68 IP/GS

In his streaks of 4 or more quality starts, Sheets has never posted an undefeated record, or a runs average as low as his current runs average during the last 7 starts. Another welcome sign is an increased K/BB ratio of 41/9, especially given the lower K/9 IP and K/BB totals Sheets put up in recent seasons after changing his pitching style somewhat.

Sheets is certainly working electric stuff, and getting through starts when he doesn't have his best stuff, or the circumstances demand a different approach -- such as the Coors Field start where Sheets relied almost exclusively on his array of fastballs (with varying amounts of tailing fastballs and sinkers).

Meanwhile, on the contract front, the value of Sheets and his quality starts streaks means that he faces a very high percentage of batters during a quality start, throughout the course of his career. Sheets' first advantage as a starting pitcher is that he faces more batters and plate appearances than the vast majority of position players. Over the course of a full season of 30 GS (or more), Sheets will face just under 809 batters per season, which can probably only be matched by a batter that bats in the lead-off spot for all 162 games.

Even beyond the sheer number of plate appearances that Sheets faces -- making him much more valuable than any position player -- Sheets also works a very significant number of batters faced during his quality starts, meaning that his quality start workload alone approaches a good percentage of the PA put up by a middle-order batter during a season:

(these stats do not include tonight's 9 IP and 30 BF):

Sheets: 204 GS, 1325 IP, 606 R, 5495 BF; 4.12 runs average, 6.50 IP/GS; 26.96 BFP/GS; 808.8 BF/30 GS

 

2001: 9 quality starts, 245 BF

2002: 20 quality starts, 572 BF

2003: 17 quality starts, 484 BF

2004: 22 quality starts, 606 BF

2005: 16 quality starts, 473 BF

2006: 11 quality starts, 297 BF

2007: 14 quality starts, 381 BF

2008: 10 quality starts, 316 BF

 

Career: 119 quality starts (58%), 3374 BF (61%)

 

Average: 17.4 quality starts/30 GS; 493.4 BF/17 quality starts

My point in posting these batters faced numbers is to emphasize the value of players of Sheets' talent level. I want to completely refute the argument that a starting pitcher that only goes once every five days is not as valuable as an everyday player -- because a pitcher faces so many batters during a game, and a player of Ben Sheets' level faces even more batters because he works even deeper into games than most starters, even an average pitcher is probably worth the value of an everyday player. But because Sheets pitches so many quality starts, and faces such a high percentage of his batters during quality starts, he is even more valuable.

Another point in posting these batters faced numbers is to emphasize the value of a player of Sheets' talent level, even with an injury risk. If we give Sheets even 20 games started, he faces almost 540 batters, which is a significant workload only slightly less valuable than an everyday player. Add into those 540 batters Sheets' % of quality starts, and even in a short season he has the ability to face nearly 330 batters during quality starts.

Sheets' obvious value is during a full season, where his quality starts workload accumulates a high number of batters faced and plate appearances. But even if Sheets is injured during a good portion of his next contract, he remains a very valuable pitcher because of his ability to pitch so many quality starts.

I do not think that Sheets' injury history should be an issue, or will be an issue, in his next hunt for a contract, and I think that it should be quite clear just how valuable the Ben Sheets of the world are to a baseball team.

Comments

 

Round ‘Em Up Monday « BrewersNation said:

Pingback from  Round ‘Em Up Monday « BrewersNation

June 24, 2008 9:20 AM

About This Blog

I am Nicholas Zettel, and this is my baseball blog. I write for SportsBubbler.com, and along the way I do a lot of research -- this blog will have a lot of little tidbits of information that I pick up along the way. I like sluggers, speed and power, garbage time relievers, and my favorite Brewers are Rickie Weeks and Ben Sheets.
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