Recently I have been thinking about what our offense needs to do to improve. After long deliberation, my hypothesis is that what this team needs to do to be successful is draw a lot more walks and thus hit more multi-run home runs. My concern, it seems to me, is that the Brewers have this incredibly powerful ballclub that is underperforming in the department of finding ways to get on base. I believe that we can pinpoint that by hitting woes (I'd point to Weeks and Braun as the main culprits, because they are the ones that see the most PA that are not hitting enough, but then you also have your problems with Cameron and Hall, which is of a completely different sort than Braun and Weeks), but we can also see that overall, this team does not draw enough walks as a whole, across the board.

I suspect that this is the reason that we are often frustrated as fans -- our offense has massive potential for efficiently scoring runs, but is not yet living up to that potential.

So, I decided to take a look today and see how the Crew compares to other NL ballclubs in terms of efficiency, which I am designating by the true outcomes -- HR, BB, K -- and focusing on what teams in the NL are doing when they are not putting the ball in play.

This is going to seem somewhat counterintuitive, but it is absolutely the case that the most efficient offense possible, in ideal terms, would be an offense that hit a home run in every single plate appearance. An offense where one plate appearance equals one run would score more runs than any other type of offense in baseball -- now, when we start adding outs into the equation, we can weigh different types of outs, such as outs that are put in play, and outs that are not (like strike outs). In order to best analyze the efficiency of an offense and their dependence upon true outcomes, we are going to throw out every type of out that is put in play, and only consider strike outs.

Now, all we need to do is add in walks, and we have three areas in which we can analyze offenses, quite thoroughly as well. My hypothesis is that offenses that do not depend upon putting balls in play will on the whole be better offenses because they will depend upon luck less, and they will emphasize power and patience more (power being a trait for home runs, patience being a trait for walks, and then their inverse correlation -- big power players will get walked more because of potential run producing outcomes, and patience will also correspond to the ability to better drive the ball).

Overall, the best possible offense would never put the ball in play. So, we ought to analyze the traits of NL offenses and their production when they do not put the ball in play.  

First, let's organize them by OBP and SLG:

OBP

1. Cardinals (3189 PA): 902 PA, 561 AB, 81 HR, 480 K/323 BB; .144/.468/.578; 54 solo HR

2. Braves (3159 PA): 908 PA, 577 AB, 79 HR, 498 K/313 BB; .137/.452/.548; 40 solo HR

3. Phillies (3165 PA): 1000 PA, 659 AB, 107 HR, 552 K/309 BB; .162/.448/.649; 60 solo HR

4. Mets (3121 PA): 889 PA, 565 AB, 71 HR, 494 K/307 BB; .126/.444/.503; 41 solo HR

5. Cubs (3212 PA): 1012 PA, 657 AB, 91 HR, 566 K/324 BB; .139/.441/.554; 49 solo HR

6. Reds (3110 PA): 970 PA, 650 AB, 86 HR, 564 K/304 BB; .132/.419/.529; 53 solo HR

7. Pirates (3095 PA): 870 PA, 591 AB, 81 HR, 510 K/248 BB; .137/.414/.548; 40 solo HR

8. Brewers (3042 PA): 962 PA, 672 AB, 102 HR, 570 K/252 BB; .152/.407/.607; 63 solo HR

9. Nationals (3073 PA): 909 PA, 603 AB, 59 HR, 544 K/271 BB; .098/.402/.391; 38 solo HR

10. Dodgers (2978 PA): 780 PA, 519 AB, 52 HR, 467 K/244 BB; .100/.401/.401; 33 solo HR

11. Astros (3000 PA): 824 PA, 578 AB, 82 HR, 496 K/224 BB; .142/.398/.567; 52 solo HR

12. Rockies (3112 PA): 925 PA, 631 AB, 68 HR, 563 K/269 BB; .108/.391/.431; 39 solo HR

13. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 1025 PA, 711 AB, 82 HR, 629 K/290 BB; .115/.386/.461; 48 solo HR

14. Giants (3073 PA): 848 PA, 575 AB, 52 HR, 523 K/248 BB; .090/.383/.362; 35 solo HR

15. Marlins (3021 PA): 1053 PA, 781 AB, 115 HR, 666 K/247 BB; .147/.368/.589; 64 solo HR

16. Padres (3158 PA): 1025 PA, 720 AB, 71 HR, 649 K/276 BB; .099/.367/.394; 39 solo HR

 

SLG

1. Phillies (3165 PA): 1000 PA, 659 AB, 107 HR, 552 K/309 BB; .162/.448/.649; 60 solo HR

2. Brewers (3042 PA): 962 PA, 672 AB, 102 HR, 570 K/252 BB; .152/.407/.607; 63 solo HR

3. Marlins (3021 PA): 1053 PA, 781 AB, 115 HR, 666 K/247 BB; .147/.368/.589; 64 solo HR

4. Cardinals (3189 PA): 902 PA, 561 AB, 81 HR, 480 K/323 BB; .144/.468/.578; 54 solo HR

5. Astros (3000 PA): 824 PA, 578 AB, 82 HR, 496 K/224 BB; .142/.398/.567; 52 solo HR

6. Cubs (3212 PA): 1012 PA, 657 AB, 91 HR, 566 K/324 BB; .139/.441/.554; 49 solo HR

7. Braves (3159 PA): 908 PA, 577 AB, 79 HR, 498 K/313 BB; .137/.452/.548; 40 solo HR

8. Pirates (3095 PA): 870 PA, 591 AB, 81 HR, 510 K/248 BB; .137/.414/.548; 40 solo HR

9. Reds (3110 PA): 970 PA, 650 AB, 86 HR, 564 K/304 BB; .132/.419/.529; 53 solo HR

10. Mets (3121 PA): 889 PA, 565 AB, 71 HR, 494 K/307 BB; .126/.444/.503; 41 solo HR

11. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 1025 PA, 711 AB, 82 HR, 629 K/290 BB; .115/.386/.461; 48 solo HR

12. Rockies (3112 PA): 925 PA, 631 AB, 68 HR, 563 K/269 BB; .108/.391/.431; 39 solo HR

13. Dodgers (2978 PA): 780 PA, 519 AB, 52 HR, 467 K/244 BB; .100/.401/.401; 33 solo HR

14. Padres (3158 PA): 1025 PA, 720 AB, 71 HR, 649 K/276 BB; .099/.367/.394; 39 solo HR

15. Nationals (3073 PA): 909 PA, 603 AB, 59 HR, 544 K/271 BB; .098/.402/.391; 38 solo HR

16. Giants (3073 PA): 848 PA, 575 AB, 52 HR, 523 K/248 BB; .090/.383/.362; 35 solo HR

 

OBP/SLG rank

1. Phillies 4

2. Cardinals 5

3. Braves 9

4. Brewers 10

5. Cubs 11

6. Mets 14

7. Reds 15

8. Pirates 15

9. Astros 16

10. Marlins 18

11. Dodgers 23

12. Nationals 24

13. Rockies 24

14. Diamondbacks 24

15. Giants 30

16. Padres 30

These OBP and SLG show that an offense that has very good numbers on balls-not-in-play are not necessarily imbalanced or homer-happy offenses;  for instance, although the Cubs are one of the better HR teams in the NL, they are not necessarily recognize as one, and their main point of success is their OBP, and especially their BB. The same goes for the Cards, Braves, and Mets, who post excellent OBP in these categories without a great dependence upon HR. Oddly enough, there is a strong correlation between the teams that get on base at the lowest percent and the teams that hit fewest HR.

 Now that we have the basics organized, let's look at the best type of hit, the only type of hit that one can get without putting the ball in play: a home run. There are numerous things we can do here -- for instance, I have included solo HR with overall HR, and we will be able to analyze a team's HR efficiency, as well as their overall ability to hit HR. HR efficiency is important because although a team that hits more home runs will probably have a more efficient offense overall (or at least the potential for a more efficient offense), a team that hits multi-run HR frequently will have the most efficient offense.

So, here are three HR categories: HR efficiency (solo HR/total HR), total HR, and solo HR (although we want to find and reward efficient home run teams, we also do not want to punish teams that flat out hit a ton of solo HR, and a ton of HR overall, at the expense of teams that might hit very little HR, even if they are efficient):

HR efficiency

1. Pirates (3095 PA): 81 HR, 40 solo HR (49.4%)

2. Braves (3159 PA): 79 HR, 40 solo HR (50.6%)

3. Cubs (3212 PA): 91 HR, 49 solo HR (53.8%)

4. Padres (3158 PA): 71 HR, 39 solo HR (54.9%)

5. Marlins (3021 PA): 115 HR, 64 solo HR (55.7%)

6. Phillies (3165 PA): 107 HR, 60 solo HR (56.1%)

7. Rockies (3112 PA): 68 HR, 39 solo HR (57.4%)

8. Mets (3121 PA): 71 HR, 41 solo HR (57.7%)

9. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 82 HR, 48 solo HR (58.5%)

10. Reds (3110 PA): 86 HR, 53 solo HR (61.6%)

11. Brewers (3042 PA): 102 HR, 63 solo HR (61.8%)

12. Astros (3000 PA): 82 HR, 52 solo HR (63.4%)

13. Nationals (3073 PA): 59 HR, 38 solo HR (64.4%)

14. Dodgers (2978 PA): 52 HR, 33 solo HR (63.5%)

15. Cardinals (3189 PA): 81 HR, 54 solo HR (66.7%)

16. Giants (3073 PA): 52 HR, 35 solo HR (67.4%)

 

HR Total

1. Marlins (3021 PA): 115 HR, 64 solo HR (55.7%)

2. Phillies (3165 PA): 107 HR, 60 solo HR (56.1%)

3. Brewers (3042 PA): 102 HR, 63 solo HR (61.8%)

4. Cubs (3212 PA): 91 HR, 49 solo HR (53.8%)

5. Reds (3110 PA): 86 HR, 53 solo HR (61.6%)

6. Astros (3000 PA): 82 HR, 52 solo HR (63.4%)

7. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 82 HR, 48 solo HR (58.5%)

8. Pirates (3095 PA): 81 HR, 40 solo HR (49.4%)

9. Cardinals (3189 PA): 81 HR, 54 solo HR (66.7%)

10. Braves (3159 PA): 79 HR, 40 solo HR (50.6%)

11. Mets (3121 PA): 71 HR, 41 solo HR (57.7%)

12. Padres (3158 PA): 71 HR, 39 solo HR (54.9%)

13. Rockies (3112 PA): 68 HR, 39 solo HR (57.4%)

14. Nationals (3073 PA): 59 HR, 38 solo HR (64.4%)

15. Dodgers (2978 PA): 52 HR, 33 solo HR (63.5%)

16. Giants (3073 PA): 52 HR, 35 solo HR (67.4%)

 

Solo HR

1. Marlins (3021 PA): 115 HR, 64 solo HR (55.7%)

2. Brewers (3042 PA): 102 HR, 63 solo HR (61.8%)

3. Phillies (3165 PA): 107 HR, 60 solo HR (56.1%)

4. Cardinals (3189 PA): 81 HR, 54 solo HR (66.7%)

5. Reds (3110 PA): 86 HR, 53 solo HR (61.6%)

6. Astros (3000 PA): 82 HR, 52 solo HR (63.4%)

7. Cubs (3212 PA): 91 HR, 49 solo HR (53.8%)

8. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 82 HR, 48 solo HR (58.5%)

9. Mets (3121 PA): 71 HR, 41 solo HR (57.7%)

10. Braves (3159 PA): 79 HR, 40 solo HR (50.6%)

11. Pirates (3095 PA): 81 HR, 40 solo HR (49.4%)

12. Rockies (3112 PA): 68 HR, 39 solo HR (57.4%)

13. Padres (3158 PA): 71 HR, 39 solo HR (54.9%)

14. Nationals (3073 PA): 59 HR, 38 solo HR (64.4%)

15. Giants (3073 PA): 52 HR, 35 solo HR (67.4%)

16. Dodgers (2978 PA): 52 HR, 33 solo HR (63.5%)

 

HR Ranking

1. Marlins 7

2. Phillies 11

3. Cubs 14

4. Brewers 16

5. Reds 20

6. Pirates 20

7. Braves 22

8. Astros 24

9. Diamondbacks 24

10. Cardinals 28

11. Mets 28

12. Padres 29

13. Rockies 32

14. Nationals 41

15. Dodgers 45

16. Giants 47

I find it very interesting that the teams that hit the most home runs are not necessarily the most efficient HR teams. The best team in this regard is the Cubs, who do not lead the NL in HR, but hit a lot of HR anyhow, and a lot of multi-run HR.

To round out this offensive picture, we have BB and K, the other two true outcomes, which will help us to analyze the most efficient offenses. It may seem counterintuitive, but in this study I am rewarding teams that strike out more, because striking out more is a characteristic of teams that rely on true outcomes and will accumulate more true outcomes. I would suggest that the best possible team would be a team that could walk more than any other team, hit more home runs than any other team, and strike out more than any other team. We are not concerned with putting the ball in play here, so we're not going to reward putting the ball into play:

BB

1. Cubs (3212 PA): 324 BB

2. Cardinals (3189 PA): 323 BB

3. Braves (3159 PA): 313 BB

4. Phillies (3165 PA): 309 BB

5. Mets (3121 PA): 307 BB

6. Reds (3110 PA): 304 BB

7. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 290 BB

8. Padres (3158 PA): 276 BB

9. Nationals (3073 PA): 271 BB

10. Rockies (3112 PA): 269 BB

11. Brewers (3042 PA): 252 BB

12. Giants (3073 PA): 248 BB

13. Pirates (3095 PA): 248 BB

14. Marlins (3021 PA): 247 BB

15. Dodgers (2978 PA): 244 BB

16. Astros (3000 PA): 224 BB

 

K

1. Marlins (3021 PA): 666 K

2. Padres (3158 PA): 649 K

3. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 629 K

4. Brewers (3042 PA): 570 K

5. Cubs (3212 PA): 566 K

6. Reds (3110 PA): 564 K

7. Rockies (3112 PA): 563 K

8. Phillies (3165 PA): 552 K

9. Nationals (3073 PA): 544 K

10. Giants (3073 PA): 523 K

11. Pirates (3095 PA): 510 K

12. Braves (3159 PA): 498 K

13. Astros (3000 PA): 496 K

14.  Mets (3121 PA): 494 K

15. Cardinals (3189 PA): 480 K

16. Dodgers (2978 PA): 467 K

The best teams here are the Cubs, Reds, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and to a lesser extent the Nationals -- each of these teams exhibit a high number of strike outs as well as a high number of walks. That's what we're looking for here, and that's what we'll reward. Unbalanced offenses are the Brewers and Marlins, who do not walk enough, and the Cards and Braves, who do not strike out enough.

Now, for the big point: to what % do each of these teams rely on the true outcomes? Here I divided the PA from balls not put in play by the total number of PA, to get an idea of who relies on this the most. The reason that this is important is that we can weigh the percentage at which a team relies on the true outcomes against their success for executing the true outcomes. For example, a team like the Brewers, who have unbalanced true outcomes (good HR, good K, not enough BB) will not be as effective if they rely on the true outcome too heavily. Meanwhile, a team that executes with good individual true outcome traits but does not rely on the true outcome enough will not produce as much offensively, and will be wasting potential run-scoring resources:

PA%

1. Marlins (3021 PA): 1053 PA; 34.9%

2. Diamondbacks (3029 PA): 1025 PA; 33.8%

3. Padres (3158 PA): 1025 PA; 32.5%

4. Phillies (3165 PA): 1000 PA; 31.6%
5. Brewers (3042 PA): 962 PA; 31.6%

6. Cubs (3212 PA): 1012 PA; 31.5%

7. Reds (3110 PA): 970 PA; 31.2%

8. Rockies (3112 PA): 925 PA; 29.7%

9. Nationals (3073 PA): 909 PA; 29.6%

10. Braves (3159 PA): 908 PA; 28.7%

11. Mets (3121 PA): 889 PA; 28.5%

12. Cardinals (3189 PA): 902 PA; 28.3%

13. Pirates (3095 PA): 870 PA; 28.1%

14. Giants (3073 PA): 848 PA; 27.6%

15. Astros (3000 PA): 824 PA; 27.5%

16. Dodgers (2978 PA): 780 PA; 26.2%

So, with that, here are the overall rankings:

1. Phillies: 34

2. Cubs: 45

3. Marlins: 52

4. Brewers: 54

5. Reds: 66

6. Braves: 66

7. Cardinals: 74

8. Diamondbacks: 83

9. Pirates: 86

10. Mets: 89

11. Astros: 91

12. Padres: 100

13. Rockies: 107

14. Nationals: 118

15. Dodgers: 141

16. Giants: 144

The Phillies are easily the best true outcome offense because they rely on the true outcome a lot, walk a ton, strike out at a good clip, and hit home runs frequently and with good efficiency. The Marlins are an interesting case because although they cleaned up in a lot of HR categories, and did well with K, they do not BB enough. This could explain some of their struggles -- if they rely on the HR and K in their offense without walking, they will not maximize their production.

So, this is one way to conceptualize offensive production for a baseball team. Walk a lot, hit a lot of home runs, and strike out a lot: minimize your dependence upon luck and do not give the fielders a chance to field against you. If an offense can exhibit these types of skills, and excel in their usage, they will have aspects of offensive production that will be difficult to take away.