July 2008 - Posts

• Holy Homestand!

  Posted Jul 31 2008, 05:20 PM by radio silence

  It's a wonder the Brewers even managed to win one game on this home stand:

  Last 7 Days (7 G): .229/.307/.396; 24 R; 227 AB, 52 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR; 61 K/26 BB

  And...

  Starters: 41.7 IP, 61 H, 37 R, 28 K/11 BB; 7.99 runs average, 5.96 IP/GS

  Bullpen: 21.3 IP, 27 H, 12 R, 12 K/11 BB; 1/2 SVO; .3157 WHIP (R)/(H+BB)

  The Brewers' pitching staff allowed 49 runs, or 7.00 runs per game, and the Brewers' offense scored 24 runs, or 3.43 runs per game.

  There's not much of a spin that can be put on this performance, but it's quite clear that the Brewers literally lost it on all cylinders during this homestand, but perhaps the signs were already there after the team left San Francisco; they managed to win three improbable games in St. Louis on late, timely hits in a series that lacked offensive production otherwise.

  If we stretch the offensive woes through St. Louis, we might figure that the Brewers managed to go 5-6 during a tough 11 game stretch where they scored 37 runs and allowed 58 runs.

  Since the break? The Brewers are 8-6, scoring 61 runs and allowing 68 runs.

  If the Brewers can wrap up this slump shortly, they will escape with admittedly limited damage.

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• League Average Ranking

  Posted Jul 25 2008, 09:06 AM by radio silence

  Over the AS Break, I compiled a list of 51 players in the NL (with approx. 150 AB) that posted a slight-above-average-to-slightly-below-average OPS+. The range I used was from an OPS+ of 90 to an OPS+ of 110, in order to analyze a range of league average players.

  Here's how they compare in terms of OBP, and I featured XBH% and Power/Speed number rankings for the top 15, to note some tools players.

  These stats are from the AS break...

  1. Ryan Theriot, CHC: 111 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 15/24 SB; .394/.369; 12.6% XBH, 1.88 p/s

  2. Todd Helton, COL: 79 H, 16 2B, 7 HR, 0/0 SB; .393/.391; 29% XBH, 0 p/s

  3. Kosuke Fukudome, CHC: 91 H, 17 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 8/12 SB; .383/.408; 28.6% XBH, 7.47 p/s

  4. Yadier Molina, STL: 86 H, 12 2B, 4 HR, 0/2 SB; .365/.399; 18.6% XBH, 0 p/s

  5. Doug Mientkiewicz, PIT: 40 H, 9 2B, 1 HR, 0/0 SB; .364/.338; 25% XBH, 0 p/s

  6. Orlando Hudson, ARI: 99 H, 24 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR; ¾ SB; .359/.457; 34.3% XBH, 4.20 p/s

  7. Skip Schumaker, STL: 91 H, 17 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 7/7 SB; .357/.431; 29.7% XBH, 6.46 p/s

  8. Aaron Miles, STL: 71 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 1/3 SB; .356/.393; 16.9% XBH; 1.33 p/s 9. Randy Winn, SF: 94 H, 23 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 18/19 SB; .355/.406; 30.9% XBH, 7.83 p/s 10. Yunel Escobar, ATL: 95 H, 12 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 2/6 SB; .355/.383; 20% XBH, 3.00 p/s

  11. Chris Duncan, STL: 54 H, 8 2B, 6 HR, 2/3 SB’ .354/.377; 25.9% XBH, 3.00 p/s

  12. Justin Upton, ARI: 67 H, 12 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 1/5 SB; .353/.433; 40.3% XBH, 1.83 p/s

  13. Jeff Keppinger, CIN: 63 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 2/3 SB; .353/.388; 20.6% XBH, 2.40 p/s

  14. Andre Ethier, LAD: 87 H, 21 2B, 11 HR, 3/5 SB; .351/.459; 36.8% XBH, 4.71 p/s

  15. Fred Lewis, SF: 89 H, 20 2B, 9 3B, 6 HR, 17/23 SB; .351/.448; 39.3% XBH, 8.87 p/s

  16. James Loney, LAD: 102 H, 25 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR; 3/6 SB; .351/.446; 35.3% XBH, 4.20 p/s

  17. Shane Victorino, PHI: 89 H, 18 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 22/28 SB; .350/.408; 30.3% XBH, 8.15 p/s

  18. Ken Griffey, CIN: 74 H, 16 2B, 12 HR, 0/1 SB; .348/.400; 37.8% XBH, 0 p/s

  19. Jody Gerut, SD: 56 H, 9 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR; 5/8 SB; .347/.403; 26.8% XBH, 4.44 p/s

  20. Kelly Johnson, ATL: 85 H, 22 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 7/9 SB; .346/.431; 37.6% XBH, 7.47 p/s

  21. Luis Gonzalez, FLA: 65 H, 16 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 1/3 SB; .344/.407; 33.8% XBH, 1.67 p/s

  22. Clint Barmes, COL: 57 H, 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR; 4/6 SB; .343/.487; 40.4% XBH; 4.44 p/s

  23. Edgar Gonzalez, SD: 48 H, 10 2B, 3 HR, 0/1 SB; .343/.414; 27.1% XBH, 0 p/s

  24. Edwin Encarnacion, CIN; 77 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR; 1/1 SB; .341/.481; 45.5% XBH, 1.88 p/s

  25. Jimmy Rollins, PHI: 80 H, 20 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 24/24 SB; .340/.438; 38.8% XBH, 9.60 p/s

  26. Cristian Guzman, WAS: 126 H, 26 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 3/6 SB; .340/.424; 26.2% XBH, 3.75 p/s

  27. Chris Snyder, ARI: 47 H, 14 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 0/0 SB; .339/.440; 46.8% XBH, 0 p/s

  28. Matt Kemp, LAD: 96 H, 21 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 22/28 SB; .337/.444; 34.4% XBH, 12.77 p/s

  29. Jay Bruce, CIN: 44 H, 8 2B, 6 HR, 2/5 SB, .335/.429; 31.8% XBH, 3.00 p/s

  30. Chris Coate, PHI: 46 H, 12 2B, 7 HR, 0/0 SB; .333/.479; 41.3% XBH, 0 p/s

  31. Damion Easley, NYM: 52 H, 8 2B, 3 HR, 0/0 SB; .332/.379; 21.2% XBH, 0 p/s

  32. Rich Aurillia, SF: 68 H, 14 2B, 8 HR, ½ SB; .330/.436; 32.4% XBH; 1.78 p/s

  33. Adam LaRoche, PIT: 78 H, 18 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 1/1 SB; .330/.434; 41% XBH, 1.83 p/s

  34. Mark Kotsay, ATL: 58 H, 8 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 2/4 SB; .329/.394; 24.1% XBH, 2.67 p/s

  35. Carlos Delgado, NYM: 86 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 1/1 SB; .328/.455; 43% XBH, 1.89 p/s

  36. Jose Bautista, PIT: 69 H, 15 2B, 10 HR, ½ SB; .328/.424; 36.2% XBH, 1.82 p/s

  37. Jesus Flores, WAS: 48 H, 14 2B, 5 HR, 0/1 SB; .327/.433; 39.6% XBH, 0 p/s

  38. Jeremy Hermia, FLA: 85 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 3/3 SB; .326/.411; 35.3% XBH, 4.62 p/s

  39. Brandon Phillips, CIN: 104 H, 18 2B, 5 3B, 15 HR; 19/23 SB; .323/.476; 36.5% XBH, 16.76 p/s

  40. Mike Cameron, MIL: 50 H, 12 2B, 14 HR, 8/11 SB; .320/.481; 52% XBH, 10.18 p/s

  41. Kevin Kouzmanoff, SD: 97 H, 17 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 0/0 SB; .320/.441; 32.9% XBH, 0 p/s

  42. Pedro Feliz, PHI: 86 H, 17 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 0/0 SB; .320/.442; 34.9% XBH; 0 p/s

  43.  Bowker, SF: 64 H, 10 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 1/1 SB; .317/.449; 32.8% XBH; 1.80 p/s

  44. Miguel Tejada, HOU: 102 H, 21 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 7/10 SB; .316/.423; 32.4% XBH, 8.24 p/s

  45. Bengie Molina, SF: 90 H, 21 2B, 6 HR, 0/0 SB; .315/.411; 30% XBH; 0 p/s

  46. Aaron Boone, WAS: 42 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 0/1 SB; .313/.417; 35.7% XBH, 0 p/s

  47. Jose Castillo, SF: 83 H, 24 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 1/3 SB; .313/.413; 40.9% XBH, 1.71 p/s

  48. Jeff Baker, COL: 46 H, 17 2B, 6 HR, 2/2 SB; .309/.463; 50% XBH, 3.00 p/s

  49. Hunter Pence, HOU: 94 H, 19 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 5/12 SB; .304/.429; 35.1% XBH, 7.06 p/s

  50. Stephen Drew, ARI: 90 H, 21 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 2/3 SB; .302/.460; 42.2% XBH, 3.43 p/s

  51. Mike Jacobs, FLA: 69 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 1/1 SB; .280/.502; 50.7% XBH, 1.90 p/s

   

  XBH%

  1. Mike Cameron, MIL: 50 H, 12 2B, 14 HR, 8/11 SB; .320/.481; 52% XBH, 10.18 p/s

  2. Mike Jacobs, FLA: 69 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 1/1 SB; .280/.502; 50.7% XBH, 1.90 p/s

  3. Jeff Baker, COL: 46 H, 17 2B, 6 HR, 2/2 SB; .309/.463; 50% XBH, 3.00 p/s

  4. Chris Snyder, ARI: 47 H, 14 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 0/0 SB; .339/.440; 46.8% XBH, 0 p/s

  5. Edwin Encarnacion, CIN; 77 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR; 1/1 SB; .341/.481; 45.5% XBH, 1.88 p/s

  6. Carlos Delgado, NYM: 86 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 1/1 SB; .328/.455; 43% XBH, 1.89 p/s

  7. Stephen Drew, ARI: 90 H, 21 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 2/3 SB; .302/.460; 42.2% XBH, 3.43 p/s

  8. Chris Coate, PHI: 46 H, 12 2B, 7 HR, 0/0 SB; .333/.479; 41.3% XBH, 0 p/s

  9. LaRoche, PIT: 78 H, 18 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 1/1 SB; .330/.434; 41% XBH, 1.83 p/s

  10. Jose Castillo, SF: 83 H, 24 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 1/3 SB; .313/.413; 40.9% XBH, 1.71 p/s

  11. Justin Upton, ARI: 67 H, 12 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 1/5 SB; .353/.433; 40.3% XBH, 1.83 p/s

  12. Jesus Flores, WAS: 48 H, 14 2B, 5 HR, 0/1 SB; .327/.433; 39.6% XBH, 0 p/s

  13. Fred Lewis, SF: 89 H, 20 2B, 9 3B, 6 HR, 17/23 SB; .351/.448; 39.3% XBH, 8.87 p/s

  14. Jimmy Rollins, PHI: 80 H, 20 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 24/24 SB; .340/.438; 38.8% XBH, 9.60 p/s

  15. Ken Griffey, CIN: 74 H, 16 2B, 12 HR, 0/1 SB; .348/.400; 37.8% XBH, 0 p/s

   

  Power/Speed

  1. Brandon Phillips, CIN: 104 H, 18 2B, 5 3B, 15 HR; 19/23 SB; .323/.476; 36.5% XBH, 16.76 p/s

  2. Matt Kemp, LAD: 96 H, 21 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 22/28 SB; .337/.444; 34.4% XBH, 12.77 p/s

  3. Mike Cameron, MIL: 50 H, 12 2B, 14 HR, 8/11 SB; .320/.481; 52% XBH, 10.18 p/s

  4. Jimmy Rollins, PHI: 80 H, 20 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 24/24 SB; .340/.438; 38.8% XBH, 9.60 p/s

  5. Fred Lewis, SF: 89 H, 20 2B, 9 3B, 6 HR, 17/23 SB; .351/.448; 39.3% XBH, 8.87 p/s

  6. Miguel Tejada, HOU: 102 H, 21 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 7/10 SB; .316/.423; 32.4% XBH, 8.24 p/s

  7. Shane Victorino, PHI: 89 H, 18 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 22/28 SB; .350/.408; 30.3% XBH, 8.15 p/s

  8. Randy Winn, SF: 94 H, 23 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 18/19 SB; .355/.406; 30.9% XBH, 7.83 p/s 9. Kelly Johnson, ATL: 85 H, 22 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 7/9 SB; .346/.431; 37.6% XBH, 7.47 p/s

  10. Kosuke Fukudome, CHC: 91 H, 17 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 8/12 SB; .383/.408; 28.6% XBH, 7.47 p/s

  11. Hunter Pence, HOU: 94 H, 19 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 5/12 SB; .304/.429; 35.1% XBH, 7.06 p/s

  12. Skip Schumaker, STL: 91 H, 17 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 7/7 SB; .357/.431; 29.7% XBH, 6.46 p/s

  Andre Ethier, LAD: 87 H, 21 2B, 11 HR, 3/5 SB; .351/.459; 36.8% XBH, 4.71 p/s 

  13. Jeremy Hermia, FLA: 85 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 3/3 SB; .326/.411; 35.3% XBH, 4.62 p/s

  14. Jody Gerut, SD: 56 H, 9 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR; 5/8 SB; .347/.403; 26.8% XBH, 4.44 p/s

  15. Clint Barmes, COL: 57 H, 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR; 4/6 SB; .343/.487; 40.4% XBH; 4.44 p/s

  With 2 comment(s)

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• Guest Contributions

  Posted Jul 25 2008, 08:58 AM by radio silence

  Be on the look out for some guest contributions from the SportsBubbler boards, coming soon....

  With no comments

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• All-Star Game Solution

  Posted Jul 17 2008, 02:04 PM by radio silence

  I thoroughly enjoyed watching MLB's 15 inning All-Star game, going into early Wednesday morning with a fine display of pitching by Aaron Cook, and a defensive clinic by the NL (after Uggla's errors, they perfectly executed the bases-loaded force out plays). It was also nice to see the AS Game won on a play at the plate -- a very high stakes play, and quite an enjoyable baseball game overall.

  However, the game showed MLB's bigtime flaw with managing the game: simply putting the WS home-field advantage on the game does not keep a game from entering the deep extra innings. Although baseball is generally a 9 inning affair, no one can actually plan an event around a baseball game actually going 9 innings. Moreover, even with the extra roster spots in place to help keep an extra innings game from wearing out certain players, as opposed to the starters, managers have consistently proven that even with expanded rosters, they will try to play every player.

  Here are some simple solutions:

  (1) If MLB wants every player to play, keep expanded rosters, and have home-field ride on the AS game, why not make the AS event a best-of-3 series? With rosters as large as they are for the AS games, a single-day doubleheader could be very feasible, and a second day could be used if a third game is needed.

  This would give the MLB its greatest win-win with the event: it would mean something, and keep the baseball at an exceptional level; also, it would allow every player to play, and not simply in a 1-2 IP showing.

  Moreover, starters could be extended beyond the 1 IP appearance, and pitch 30-45 pitches in 2-3 innings. This would be a much more appropriate work level than punishing the relief pitchers remaining in the 11th inning to pitch 3 IP.

  (2) If MLB wants the game to go nine innings only, make it a true exhibition. Get all the players in, don't have it mean anything, and allow ties to occur. That's the only way to force a baseball game at end after 9 innings.

  (3) Return to the old format of rotating WS home field advantage league-by-league, every other year.

  I like the first option the best, as a baseball fan. Who wouldn't want to spend a full day at the stadium, watching more than 50 of baseball's biggest stars fight it out for home field advantage? Add in a third game, an extra day of rest, and the season would not need to go much deeper into September/October, and the pay-off could be a much better AS event.

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• Break Bullpen Analysis

  Posted Jul 13 2008, 09:55 PM by radio silence

  What better time to analyze the Brewers' bullpen than now, at the AS Break?

  Like last year, the common sense fan tells you that our bullpen is a problem, and not getting the job done. However, the bullpen is not as bad as most people think. Now, the pen is not as good as last year's pen, but on the whole there are some very positive spots in the pen, to overshadow the negative ones.

  First, the overall stats (I used everyone that pitched more than 1 game out of the bullpen):

  Overall: 116 IR/32 IS (27.6%); 76/91 leads converted (83.5%)

  Guillermo Mota (34 IP, 33 G): 8 IR/1 IS; 24 R, 37 H, 17 BB; 10/12 leads converted (83.3%)

  Salomon Torres (49.3 IP, 43 G): 21 IR/5 IS; 18 R; 43 H, 20 BB; 20/23 leads converted (86.9%)

  Brian Shouse (33 IP, 44 G): 42 IR/16 IS; 9 R; 25 H, 8 BB; 13/16 leads converted (81.3%)

  Eric Gagne (23.3 IP, 24 G):  3 IR/1 IS; 19 R; 29 H, 16 BB; 10/15 leads converted (66.7%)

  Carlos Villanueva (27 IP, 16 G): 9 IR/0 IS; 8 R, 23 H, 5 BB; 7/7 leads converted (100%)

  Mitch Stetter (22 IP, 22 G): 6 IR/0 IS; 6 R; 11 H, 15 BB; 2/2 leads converted ( 100%)

  David Riske (29 IP, 27 G): 15 IR/4 IS; 15 R; 28 H, 14 BB; 10/12 leads converted (83.3%)

  Seth McClung (20.3 IP, 11 G): 2 IR/1 IS; 8 R; 15 H, 13 BB; 1/1 leads converted (100%)

  Tim Dillard (8.3 IP, 8 G): 3 IR/2 IS; 10 R; 10 H, 5 BB; 1/1 leads converted (100%)

  Mark DiFelice (13.7 IP, 10 G): 5 IR/2 IS; 7 R; 13 H, 0 BB; 1/1 leads converted (100%)

  Derrick Turnbow (6.3 IP, 8 G): 0 IR/0 IS; 11 R; 12 H, 13 BB; 1/1 leads converted (100%)

  Zach Jackson (3.7 IP, 2 G); 2 IR/0 IS; 2 R; 5 H, 2 BB; n/a leads converted

  On the whole, allowing fewer than 30% of inherited runners to score is pretty solid, and 83.5% leads converted is slightly below average. Gagne's problems account for 5 of the 15 blown leads alone, so without the right-hander, the pen has converted 66/76 leads (86.8%). That clip is pretty much average, perhaps above average (I do not yet have the full NL averages)

  In advanced terms, beyond leads converted and IR/IS, we can also analyze how the relievers are being used, and whether or not their usage patterns are warranted given their success rate.

  For this aspect of the pen, I utilized an adjusted WHIP, which accounts for IR/IS along with the reliever's own baserunners (H, BB), and weighs those baserunners against the number of baserunners scored. Basically it's a full picture of the frequency with which a reliever allows their total baserunners to score (inherited and their own).

  The basic idea is that a reliever will generally be more successful if they allow a lower percentage of runners to score.

  Adjusted WHIP: (137 R + 32 IS)/(251 H + 128 BB + 116 IR) = .3414

   

  Mitch Stetter (6 R + 0 IS)/(11 H + 15 BB + 6 IR) = .1875

  Carlos Villanueva (8 R + 0 IS)/(23 H + 5 BB + 9 IR) = .2162

  Zach Jackson (2 R + 0 IS)/(5 H + 2 BB + 2 IR) = .2222

  Salomon Torres (18 R + 5 IS)/(43 H + 20 BB + 21 IR)= .2738

  Seth McClung (8 R + 1 IS)/(15 H + 13 BB + 2 IR) = .3000

  Brian Shouse (9 R + 16 IS)/(25 H + 8 BB + 42 IR) = .3333

  David Riske (15 R + 4 IS)/(28 H + 14 BB + 15 IR) = .3333

   

  Guillermo Mota (24 R + 1 IS)/(37 H + 17 BB + 8 IR) = .4032

  Eric Gagne (19 R + 1 IS)/(29 H + 16 BB + 3 IR) = .4167

  Derrick Turnbow (11 R + 0 IS)/(12 H + 13 BB + 0 IR) = .4400

  Mark DiFelice (7 R + 2 IS)/(13 H + 0 BB + 5 IR) = .5000

  Tim Dillard (10 R + 2 IS)/(10 H + 5 BB + 3 IR) = .6667

  Of the regulars, Mitch Stetter, Carlos Villanueva, Salomon Torres, and Seth McClung are the best relievers in our bullpen, with Brian Shouse and David Riske not far behind. Each of those pitchers is above the league average for basic WHIP, although basic WHIP does not include IR/IS numbers, so the league average is estimated:

  Actual WHIP (R/(H+BB)): .3615

  NL League Average WHIP: .3714

  The pen's actual WHIP % scored is higher than the overall % because the IR/IS % is fairly low for the entire bullpen. However, the pen as a whole is still allowing runners to score at a lower percentage than average pitchers in the NL.

  The real question is, do Yost's usage patterns reflect the success of the relievers, or rather, does Yost use relievers in roles they are best suited for?

  In order to get an idea of Yost's usage patterns, I looked at two areas:

  (1) Appearance distribution. If we look at the innings in which relievers are entering games, are they entering games in one inning only, or are they used flexibly? My intuition is that a good bullpen will have both flexible relievers and some steadfast relievers, although my own personal opinion leans towards a more flexible pen, so I valued pitcher flexibility in this study. This means that if a reliever has a lower percentage of their overall appearances invested in one single inning in the ballgame, they will be more valuable (because they can enter the ballgame in multiple IP).

  (2) "Clutch" distribution. This is simple: how many tie games does a reliever appear in? How many games within one run does a reliever appear in? (This includes one run defecits, one run leads, and ties, overall).

  This point is simple: a reliever that can successfully pitch in many close games, that reliever will be more valuable than a reliever that does not pitch in close games. But, this can also signal managerial misuse in other cases -- does a bullpen feature too many relievers that pitch poorly, but appear in lots of close games?

  Appearance Distribution:

  McClung: 3 ea/11 appearances in the 6^th and 7^th innings (27.5% each, 55% total); 2/11 tie games, 2/11 games within 1 R

  Riske: 8 ea/27 appearances in the 6^th, 7^th, and 8^th innings (30% each, 89% total); 1/27 tie games, 12/27 games within 1 R

  DiFelice: 3/10 appearances in 5^th inning (30%); 0/10 tie games, 1/10 games within 1 R

  Stetter: 7/22 appearances in the 7^th inning (32%); 3/22 tie games, 8/22 games withint 1 R

  Villanueva: 6/16 appearances in the 6^th inning (37.5%); 1/16 tie games; 6/16 games within 1 R

  Dillard: 3/8 appearances in 8^th inning (37.5%); 2/8 tie games, 3/8 games within 1 R

  Turnbow: 3 ea/8 appearances in 8^th and 9^th innings (37.5% ea, 75%); 1/8 tie games, 3/8 games within 1 R

  Shouse: 18/44 appearances in 8^th inning (41%); 7/44 tie games, 17/44 games within 1 R

  Torres: 18/43 appearances in 9^th inning (42%); 8/43 tie games, 22/43 games within 1 R

  Gagne: 17/24 appearances in 9^th inning (71%); 4/24 tie games, 9/24 games within 1 R

  Mota: 26/34 appearances in 8^th inning (76.5%); 10/34 tie games, 15/34 games within 1 R

  Jackson: 2/2 appearances in 7^th inning (100%); 0/2 tie games, 0/2 games within 1 R

    

  Clutch Distribution:

  Torres: 8/43 tie games (19%), 22/43 games within 1 R (51%)

  Riske: 1/27 tie games (4%), 12/27 games within 1 R (44%)

  Mota: 10/34 tie games (29%), 15/34 games within 1 R (44%)

  Shouse: 7/44 tie games (16%), 17/44 games within 1 R (39%)

  Gagne: 4/24 tie games (17%), 9/24 games within 1 R (37.5%)

  Villanueva: 1/16 tie games (6%); 6/16 games within 1 R (37.5%)

  Dillard: 2/8 tie games (25%), 3/8 games within 1 R (37.5%)

  Turnbow: 1/8 tie games (12.5%), 3/8 games within 1 R (37.5%)

  Stetter: 3/22 tie games (14%), 8/22 games withint 1 R (36%)

  McClung: 2/11 tie games (18%), 2/11 games within 1 R (18%)

  DiFelice: 0/10 tie games (0%), 1/10 games within 1 R (10%)

  Jackson: 0%

  Some observations:

  (1) Yost's usage of Mota and Gagne has hurt the pen to some extent -- both of these pitchers are struggling, but they have been used in fairly inflexible ways. Although both allow a  high percentage of runners to score, they pitch in a disproportionate number of close games, and they also are not used flexibly, distributing their IP over different points in the ballgame.

  SOLUTION: Bump Mota and Gagne to junktime usage, or leads that are 3 runs or larger. Keep them out of as many tie games as possible, and pitch them in fewer one-run games.

  (2) Yost's usage of Riske is perfect. He is matching Linebrink's role last year, not inheriting many 3-run leads (or fewer), but pitching in a good number of tie games and 1-run defecits, as well as some 1-run leads. Yost also enters him into the game at any point, as he has equal appearances entering the game in the 6th, 7th, and 8th.

  Note: Keep it up, Yost! And also, hopefully Riske can find his form that he had early in the year, so that he can help this pen out with his flexible arm.

  (3) Yost's usage of Villanueva is lacking. He is one of the best relievers on the team, in terms of allowing runners to score, and he stranded all his inherited runners to boot. However, Yost enters him into the game on a fairly rigid basis (in the middle of the game, the 6th inning specifically), and pitches him in entirely too few close games.

  SOLUTION: When moving Mota and Gagne out of their roles, use Villanueva to pitch the close games they would normally inherit. Utilizie Villanueva's multiple IP ability in a more flexible manner.

  (4) Torres' usage since becoming a closer is lacking. With Mota and Gagne in need of a demotion, Torres is not the best candidate for a shoirt reliever that does nothing but pitch in a single inning.

  SOLUTION: Use Stetter to cover either Mota or Gagne's job, and use Torres in a more flexible way.

  (5) Pitch Shouse with bases empty more. He has been a great fireman for two years, but his skills have shifted thus far -- he is allowing his own runners to score infrequently, but is much worse with inherited runners.

  He is the only pitcher to have more inherited runners than games, by a long shot.

  (6) McClung cannot get back to the pen soon enough. With Mota and Gagne demoted, he could be a solid middle innings option.

  ****

  My pen:

  Closer flexible: Torres

  Closer two: Stetter

  Close game flexible: Villanueva

  Close game flexible: Riske

  Close game short: Shouse

  Middle game: McClung

  Mop up / garbage time: Mota or Gagne

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