First off, it's been too long since an update, but I have been in the middle of a move. As Ryan from Between the Green Pillars put it best, I am now "blogging from behind enemy lines" from Wrigleyville/Lakeview in Chicago, where I am working on finding a job. I love the neighborhood, but will probably have to attend Sox games for now -- tickets are very hard to come by on the north side.
Secondly, C.C. Sabthia.
-Welcome, C.C.! I couldn't be happier to see another power/control pitcher to complement Sheets in the rotation. His 3.61 K/BB this season is exceptional, and his career K/BB of 2.54 indicates good control over all, as does his 2.93 BB/9 IP.
-I love C.C. in our rotation because he is the type of pitcher that will not depend upon our defense to make outs as much as some others in our rotation, and he will put fewer men on base via the walk.
-The price: I don't love this. In fact, when the deal initially was reported, the cost spoiled the whole thing for me. Upon waking up with C.C. in the rotation, I feel more at peace to watch the end of the season unfold. But, some thoughts....
-I think that dealing LaPorta indicates a poorly managed win-now strategy by the Brewers that requires that the Brewers abandon parts of their draft-first strategy, which has resulted in a well-stocked farm system. What bothers me in particular is that the Brewers did not simply part ways with some question marks as prospects, but have included their top prospect, and a Top 25 prospect in the ballgame. We're not simply talking about some player whose future is undetermined, or whose place on the club in the future is questionable. LaPorta is an offensive talent that would have helped solidify one of the best offenses in the game for years.
-Six-to-seven years of renewal/arbitration control vs. approximately 12 weeks of contract control. This is what I do not understand -- for a team such as the Brewers, it is crucial to utilize young talent under arbitration rights and the club renewal phases of contracts. Under the current arbitration levels and the Brewers club renewal system, it is likely to project that LaPorta could have been controlled for up to 7 years and up to $40 million (but probably no more). This is the price I will keep in my head when (a) the Brewers need to acquire different talent for their outfield, or, (b) acquire different talent for first base.
-Taylor Green. If Taylor Green is indeed the PTBNL, the Brewers will have parted with another of their Top 20 farmhands. For those keeping track, that's the Top Prospect, and another Top 20 prospect.
-Contract negotiations: the only way this deal makes any sense to me is if the Brewers re-sign Sabathia. The price is simply way too high for a rental; my intuition is that the price is so high because the Brewers intend to use the two and a half months of Sabathia contract control as an exclusive negotiation window for the ace. I expect a deal around 6 years and $20 million to be the neighborhood of an extension for Sabathia -- a bit less than the Santana extension, but more than the Zito free agency contract, and definitely more than Buehrle, Zambrano, and Peavy.
-If the Brewers do not re-sign Sabathia, the deal is bad. The price is simply too high. Just about the only thing that will make the price tolerable is a playoff appearance by the Brewers. We'll deal with the Brewers making the playoffs and analyzing Sabathia's contribution if it happens; we'll also deal with the Brewers failing to make the playoffs if it happens -- at which time the only way the deal could be justified is an extension for Sabathia.
-Good news: until we need to worry about the price more, the Brewers have two top ace pitchers in their rotation, and can easily make a case for the best rotation in the division, and maybe even in the NL, when the peripheral talent is considered. The only combination of aces that really comes close is Webb/Haren in Arizona.
So, I will hide my sour feelings about what the Brewers surrendered for Sabathia and enjoy this pennant race (with arms folded).
At any rate, welcome to Milwaukee, C.C. You will be loved greatly by the fans if you deliver, and criticized roundly if you don't. No pressure!