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Welcome, C.C. Sabathia

First off, it's been too long since an update, but I have been in the middle of a move. As Ryan from Between the Green Pillars put it best, I am now "blogging from behind enemy lines" from Wrigleyville/Lakeview in Chicago, where I am working on finding a job. I love the neighborhood, but will probably have to attend Sox games for now -- tickets are very hard to come by on the north side.

 Secondly, C.C. Sabthia.

-Welcome, C.C.! I couldn't be happier to see another power/control pitcher to complement Sheets in the rotation. His 3.61 K/BB this season is exceptional, and his career K/BB of 2.54 indicates good control over all, as does his 2.93 BB/9 IP.

-I love C.C. in our rotation because he is the type of pitcher that will not depend upon our defense to make outs as much as some others in our rotation, and he will put fewer men on base via the walk.

-The price: I don't love this. In fact, when the deal initially was reported, the cost spoiled the whole thing for me. Upon waking up with C.C. in the rotation, I feel more at peace to watch the end of the season unfold. But, some thoughts....

 -I think that dealing LaPorta indicates a poorly managed win-now strategy by the Brewers that requires that the Brewers abandon parts of their draft-first strategy, which has resulted in a well-stocked farm system. What bothers me in particular is that the Brewers did not simply part ways with some question marks as prospects, but have included their top prospect, and a Top 25 prospect in the ballgame. We're not simply talking about some player whose future is undetermined, or whose place on the club in the future is questionable. LaPorta is an offensive talent that would have helped solidify one of the best offenses in the game for years.

-Six-to-seven years of renewal/arbitration control vs. approximately 12 weeks of contract control. This is what I do not understand -- for a team such as the Brewers, it is crucial to utilize young talent under arbitration rights and the club renewal phases of contracts. Under the current arbitration levels and the Brewers club renewal system, it is likely to project that LaPorta could have been controlled for up to 7 years and up to $40 million (but probably no more). This is the price I will keep in my head when (a) the Brewers need to acquire different talent for their outfield, or, (b) acquire different talent for first base.

-Taylor Green. If Taylor Green is indeed the PTBNL, the Brewers will have parted with another of their Top 20 farmhands. For those keeping track, that's the Top Prospect, and another Top 20 prospect.

-Contract negotiations: the only way this deal makes any sense to me is if the Brewers re-sign Sabathia. The price is simply way too high for a rental; my intuition is that the price is so high because the Brewers intend to use the two and a half months of Sabathia contract control as an exclusive negotiation window for the ace. I expect a deal around 6 years and $20 million to be the neighborhood of an extension for Sabathia -- a bit less than the Santana extension, but more than the Zito free agency contract, and definitely more than Buehrle, Zambrano, and Peavy.

-If the Brewers do not re-sign Sabathia, the deal is bad. The price is simply too high. Just about the only thing that will make the price tolerable is a playoff appearance by the Brewers. We'll deal with the Brewers making the playoffs and analyzing Sabathia's contribution if it happens; we'll also deal with the Brewers failing to make the playoffs if it happens -- at which time the only way the deal could be justified is an extension for Sabathia.

-Good news: until we need to worry about the price more, the Brewers have two top ace pitchers in their rotation, and can easily make a case for the best rotation in the division, and maybe even in the NL, when the peripheral talent is considered. The only combination of aces that really comes close is Webb/Haren in Arizona.

So, I will hide my sour feelings about what the Brewers surrendered for Sabathia and enjoy this pennant race (with arms folded).

At any rate, welcome to Milwaukee, C.C. You will be loved greatly by the fans if you deliver, and criticized roundly if you don't. No pressure!

Comments

 

Dan Walsh said:

Nice post radio. IF Green is the PTBNL, I will be dissappointed, but not crushed. If they can keep Green out of it. It's a steal by the Brewers.

July 7, 2008 11:31 AM
 

Round ‘em Up: Monday « BrewersNation said:

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July 7, 2008 12:28 PM
 

UWWhitewaterGrad said:

I think we have to remember that one player does not make an organization.  Melvin has done a great job of stocking the minors so losing LaPorta doesn't hurt as much as it could.  Also, you have to think that Melvin will be able to bring in more high level prospects via trade/FA/draft.

July 7, 2008 7:18 PM
 

hedges said:

Can't disagree more, Nick.

First of all, I'm pretty sure Laporta was drafted as trade bait. He's a defensive liability -- may be a better 1B than Prince, but that's it -- even though he was playing LF at Huntsville, he's NOT an outfielder. He's a 1B/DH type. On a team as defesively limited as the Brewers, that's not what we need.

He's also a RH power bat. We've got those. Yes, he projects well, and it never hurts to have more hitters in your lineup, but still. Mat Gamel is almost as good a major league hitting prospect as Laporta, and they're both destined to be first basemen -- I have to think the bad 3B will be better at first than the bad LF. Plus, when Prince leaves, we'll need LH power, not RH. And that's what Gamel gives us. Laporta was just blocking Gamel on the depth chart.

We didn't give up Escobar. Middle infield defense needs to be a priority in our farm system. The Brewers system is stocked with prospects, and that's good for two reasons: it gives us a young core of talent for future teams AND it helps us trade to win now -- which is important because:

Tomorrow may never come.

Lots of teams get stuck in perpetual-rebuilding mode. It's really easy for a smaller-market team like Milwaukee to fall into that trap. Laporta sure looks like he's going to be an All-Star caliber major league hitter, BUT HE MIGHT NOT. History is full of "can't miss" prospects who failed to pan out. We KNOW what we're getting with CC. There are no gurantees. We might not win the Series. We might not even make the playoffs. But, at the end of the season, nobody will say that we didn't try.

July 8, 2008 8:45 AM
 

brewguru said:

It seems Radio would never trade a prospect until they are in their 5th and 6th years. We would have a team full of young players.

When you have a well stocked farm system you either promote them to the majors or trade them away. What's so difficult to understand about that?

LaPorta is a minor leaguer. Nothing is guaranteed with him. As for the Green, "a top 25 prospect"...what does that mean? Top 25 prospects don't turn out all the time! I don't think it's a big deal.

Melvin and Attanasio did what they had to do to win now. Thank God Radio doesn't work in the Brewers front office.

July 8, 2008 4:28 PM
 

radio silence said:

I just don't get the "tomorrow may never come" argument. La Porta was our best prospect, and probably could have joined the ML team as early as mid-2009, and definitely by 2010.

With La Porta we're not talking about a prospect that is a long shot to making it to the big leagues. We're talking about a prospect that is already at AA, and producing well in the minors.

I agree with Brewguru that nothing is guaranteed with La Porta's production, but only to a point.

Even if La Porta turns out to be closer to average as an outfielder, I still take seriously the years that the Crew could have controlled him, vs. the years they control Sabathia.

July 9, 2008 9:21 AM
 

Right Field Bleachers » Blog Archive » In the News (7/7) said:

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August 14, 2008 11:43 AM

About This Blog

I am Nicholas Zettel, and this is my baseball blog. I write for SportsBubbler.com, and along the way I do a lot of research -- this blog will have a lot of little tidbits of information that I pick up along the way. I like sluggers, speed and power, garbage time relievers, and my favorite Brewers are Rickie Weeks and Ben Sheets.
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