After the Brewers made their bigtime move for Sabathia, the Cubs came kicking and screaming, "we can do it, too."
Their pitcher of choice? Athletics' splitter expert, Rich Harden, and reliever Chad Gaudin. The Cubs sent Matt Murton, Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, and a minor leaguer packing.
The centerpiece of the deal must be Gallagher, the Cubs' young pitching prospect that has shown as much ability striking out batters in the minors as Harden has in the majors. A quick glance at Gallagher's BB/IP shows that his control has improved over time, and he could develop into a strong power/control middle-rotation pitcher.
I cannot help but think that the Cubs got the better deal if only because they can control Harden's contract for another year, and have a league average reliever in Chad Gaudin under control for another two years. The piece that keeps me from gushing over the Cubs' deal is Gallagher -- depending upon how strong an opinion one can have on a pitcher that isn't even 23, has shown developments in control, and can be controlled for years to come.
In Baseball America's terms, the Cubs traded their 5th prospect (vs. the Brewers trading their top prospect). I am beginning to think that the only difference between LaPorta and Gallagher in this case is the shiny sticker on the front window. If the Brewers traded the equivalent of flashy and attractive new car sitting on center display, the Cubs traded one that might be displayed in the middle lot, but with better fuel efficiency.
In terms of value, the Athletics controlling a league average power/control pitcher for approx. six more years beats the Indians controlling a league average corner outfielder / first baseman / designated hitter for up to seven more years. The rub is whether or not Gallagher or LaPorta can produce at exceptional levels.
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If the Brewers traded the flashier prospect, they received the more steadfast rotation option. If the Cubs traded the less-flashy prospect, they received a flashier pitcher in return.
The Cubs win in terms of the risk/reward game. The Brewers win in terms of replicable production. Harden has produced some ERA and K/BB numbers that Sabathia has not matched, but Sabathia has produced many, many IP and GS numbers that Harden has not come close to reaching.
For their careers, Harden's IP/G numbers are hurt by the fact that he has pitched out of the bullpen. Sabathia has been an IP eater from the start, and has never pitched out of the pen. Although Sabathia is not even two years older than Harden, his career line dwarfs the right-hander who makes Ben Sheets look like the Lou Gehrig of power-pitching aces.
Here are their career lines, with OD 2008 / OD 2009 ages:
Harden (career, 26/27): 97 G, 89 GS, 541.7 IP, 442 H, 220 R, 523 K/232 BB; 3.66 runs average, 5.58 IP/G
Sabathia (career, 27/28): 238 GS, 1534.7 IP, 1440 H, 703 R, 1270 K/503 BB; 4.12 runs average, 6.45 IP/GS
Sabathia's career runs average is not as eye-popping as Harden's, but he is much more of a strong presence in the Indians' rotations over the years -- not even two years older, Sabathia's career IP total nearly triples Harden's.
Here are their basic ERA, WHIP, and ERA+ lines for their careers...
Harden (career): 3.42 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 127 ERA+
Sabathia (career): 3.82 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 115 ERA+
...and their top seasons (judged by ERA+):
Harden (2005): 22 G, 19 GS, 128 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 172 ERA+
Harden (2007): 7 G, 4 GS, 25.7 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 171 ERA+
Harden (2008): 13 GS, 77 IP, 2.34 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 162 ERA+
Sabathia (2007): 34 GS, 241 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 143 ERA+
Sabathia (2006): 28 GS, 192.7 IP, 3.22 ERA, 1.173 WHIP, 140 ERA+
Sabathia (2003): 30 GS, 197.7 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 122 ERA+
Almost systematically, Harden's best performances in terms of ERA and WHIP best Sabathia's efforts, but where Harden teases with excellent ace performances, Sabathia delievers with the IP totals -- from 2001-2007, Sabathia only pitched fewer than 190 IP twice (and in those seasons, he notched better than 180 IP both times). Harden, by contrast, has only pitched better than 180 IP once, and he notched better than 100 IP in only two of his seasons from 2003-2007.
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What gets me about these deals is the pitchers that both the Cubs and Brewers can control after 2008. Say what you will about Harden's promise (and his teasing), the Cubs have the pitcher under control for 2009 for less than $10 million. Their top three pitchers controlled for '09 are Zambrano, Lilly, and Harden, a formidible top rotation. While the Brewers possess the top two free agent pitchers for 2009, they control neither of them. The Crew's top three pitchers controlled for '09 are Gallardo, Parra, and Suppan, unless you consider Villanueva a rotation option once again.
It is clear to me that the Brewers have a rotation that is strong in ace quality for the stretch run, which is very pleasing as a fan. I cannot help but be bothered by the fact that we likely lose both Sabathia and Sheets, and I am very bothered by our front office's ho-hum attitude to the press about that very fact.
While the Brewers have the stronger ace for the stretch run, the Cubs control another year of promise/teasing from Harden. Given Harden's results, even in a limited amount of IP, and his price for '09, that's no small feat for the Cubs.
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While the Brewers cannot match the Cubs' 2009 improvements along with a stretch run improvement, what intrigues me is that the Cubs might have given up the better talent.
Gallagher will be able to pitch in a pressure-free environment in Oakland, where he can develop without the demands of a penant race. Some Chicago sportswriters act as though Beane got spanked by Hendry, but they overlook the fact that Beane's genius is his pre-emptive rebuilding. The maverick GM might have shaved a year off of the length of the Athletics' rebuilding process by dealing key pieces prior to the season, as well as during the season.
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So, while most will be watching Sabathia vs. Harden, I contend that LaPorta vs. Gallagher is much more interesting -- both in terms of future production and in terms of baseball value. I would take a league average middle rotation pitcher with some power and control ability everyday of the week, over a league average corner outfielder.
Which makes me wonder, just how exceptional will LaPorta be?