With the recent acquisition of C.C. Sabathia, a 2009 free agent, Brewers fans have their second free agency debate of the season, the first being home grown ace Ben Sheets, another '09 free agent.
The question is not simply whether or not the Brewers can afford either ace, but whether or not those aces will be worth their contracts. The two questions are linked - obviously the Brewers will be more likely to take a financial risk if the contract is worth it, but the question of whether or not these aces are worth the money is going to be a question regardless of the city either eventually calls home.
There are simple judgments of how a pitcher's value is judged. First of all, even though they only play 1 in every 5 days most of the time, an average pitcher is usually more valuable than an average player -- for, in a full season, the average pitcher will face more batters and thus accumulate more PA during a season than the average position player. Beyond average production, an ace will probably be the most valuable player on just about every MLB roster, save for that handful of position players that actually produce at a truly exceptional level, or produce at a high level at a position where offensive production is scarce.
Secondly, a pitcher will be judged by the number of runs they allow in the number of IP they pitch -- a simple way to judge effectiveness here is to look at the number of 200 IP seasons a pitcher has, and then compare those numbers with the ERA+, which compares the pitcher's ERA to the league average ERA. An ERA+ of 100 would be average, and there are various levels of ace pitchers, usually beginning with career ERA+ above 115, with the most elite aces with career ERA+ over 140 . A cluster of seasons during a prime for an ace will probably have an ERA+ around or above 125.
To answer this question concretely, I collected data from a series of pitchers that signed some of the biggest or most-notable free agent contracts from 1997-2006. I did not include notable deals signed by Jason Schmidt, Jeff Suppan, Gil Meche, Barry Zito, Jason Marquis, and Ted Lilly, among others, that have occurred since 2006 because these deals have not had enough GS logged to truly judge the contract in some regard.
I began the survey with John Smoltz's 4/$31 million contract signed in 1997, which made him the highest paid player at the time, and I ended it with A.J. Burnett's 2006 deal for 5/$55 million.
I analyzed the contracts by collecting individual ERA+ markers for the 5 year period prior to the free agency deal (usually comprising the player's prime, or some part of the prime), and then included the ERA+ for the length of the free agency contract. I then noted the number of 200+ IP pitched during those 5-years preceding the contract, and also noted the number of 200+ IP during the contract.
The point is simple: does the aggregate ERA+ and number of 200 IP seasons produced during the free agency deal match the ERA+ and 200 IP season production produced during the 5-year period prior to the contract....
Putting the cart before the horse, here are the total results:
Looking at the contracts signed by Smoltz (1997), Randy Johnson (1999), Kevin Brown (1999), Kevin Appier (2001), Mike Hampton (2001), Mike Mussina (2001), Bartolo Colon (2004), Andy Pettitte (2004), Carl Pavano (2005), Eric Milton (2005), Pedro Martinez (2005), Matt Morris (2006), and A.J. Burnett (2006), here are the results...
Before deal (26-30): 129 ERA+
During deal (31-35): 105 ERA+; 99 ERA+ (option)
The average age during the 5-years preceding these deals was between 26 and 30, which is basically the early portion of a player's prime, and includes most of the pitcher's prime; the raw aggregate ERA+ during those seasons for all of these players was just under 130, which is a solid marker.
After the deal, which on average included age 31-35, we find that the ERA+ drops down to 105, which is slightly-above average production, a level of production that is not bad, but is notably lower than the 129 ERA+ these pitchers averaged prior to their free agency deals. In the two cases where an option was exercised, the ERA+ drops slightly below average, with a 99 ERA+.
The basic answer to the question, at first, seems to be that the contracts are not worthwhile; although a 105 ERA+ is a not a bad level of production, given the cost of these contracts, which includes some of the highest prices for pitchers at the time, that level of production does not measure up to the level of the deal.
There is further evidence that deals are not worthwhile:
200+ IP before deal: 40/65 (61.5%); 200+ IP during deal: 20/56 (35.7%); 0/2 options
We find that while a fair number of these seasons prior to the free agency deals reached the 200 IP level, that number drops significantly during the course of the free agency deal. Neither of the option seasons reached 200 IP.
Now, there should be a grain of salt with these numbers; as not all 200+ IP seasons are created equally, neither are all -200 IP seasons equal. A season in which a player does not pitch whatsoever is different than a season in which a player pitches 150 IP.
But, the basic point of the survey is that during the course of the free agency deals, players are not, on the whole, matching the number of IP that they pitched prior to the deal. Although even a 150 IP season can have its value, a 150 IP season is not as valuable as a season with more than 200 IP because of the extra number of PA that can be eaten by a starter rather than the bullpen; the primary value of a starter, remember, is that they face a high number of plate appearances, so that they can be the most valuable players on the roster.
However, if a pitcher is facing fewer PA -- at a high price, no less -- that pitcher is less valuable to his team.
**
So, in the case of Sheets and Sabathia, there is a distinct possibility that these pitchers could surpass their previous production during the course of their free agency deals. There is also a distinct possibility that they pitch less IP at a lower level of production.
Ask yourself this: Is Ben Sheets or C.C. Sabathia worth $20 million a year for slightly-above league average production?
John Smoltz (1997; 4/$31; 30) 125 ERA+ before, 105 ERA+ during
Before Deal (25-29): 129 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 102 ERA+, 134 ERA+, 149 ERA+
During Deal (30-33): 138 ERA+, 143 ERA+, 140 ERA+, DNP
200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 1/4
Randy Johnson (1999; 4/$53.4 (+option); 35) 162 ERA+ before, 188 ERA+ during, 110 ERA+ option
Before Deal (30-34): 154 ERA+, 192 ERA+, 135 ERA+, 196 ERA+, 135 ERA+
During Deal (35-39): 186 ERA+, 181 ERA+, 188 ERA+, 197 ERA+, 110 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 4/4; 0/1 (option)
Kevin Brown (1999; 7/$105; 34) 153 ERA+ before, 126 ERA+ during
Before Deal (29-33): 101 ERA+, 132 ERA+, 216 ERA+, 150 ERA+, 164 ERA+
During Deal (34-40): 143 ERA+, 169 ERA+, 150 ERA+, 79 ERA+, 169 ERA+,
110 ERA+, 65 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 3/7
Kevin Appier (2001; 3/$30; 33) 107 ERA+ before, 104 ERA+ during
Before Deal (28-32): 138 ERA+, 137 ERA+, 61 ERA+, 94 ERA+, 104 ERA+
During Deal (33-35): 117 ERA+, 113 ERA+, 83 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 1/3
Mike Hampton (2001; 8/$121; 28) 126 ERA+ before, 71 ERA+ during
Before Deal (23-27): 108 ERA+, 104 ERA+, 122 ERA+, 154 ERA+, 142 ERA+
During Deal (28-35): 98 ERA+, 78 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 101 ERA+, 121 ERA+,
DNP, DNP, 61 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 4/5; During deal: 1/8
Mike Mussina (2001; 6/$88.5 (+option); 32) 126 ERA+ before, 117 ERA+ during, 87 ERA+ option
Before Deal (27-31): 103 ERA+, 137 ERA+, 129 ERA+, 134 ERA+, 125 ERA+
During Deal (32-38): 142 ERA+, 109 ERA+, 129 ERA+, 98 ERA+, 96 ERA+,
129 ERA+, 87 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 5/5; During deal: 3/6; 0/1 option
Bartolo Colon (2004; 4/$51; 31) 126 ERA+ before, 93 ERA+ during
Before deal (26-30): 127 ERA+, 127 ERA+, 110 ERA+, 147 ERA+, 119 ERA+
During deal (31-34): 90 ERA+, 122 ERA+, 89 ERA+, 72 ERA+)
200+ IP before deal: 4/5; During deal: 2/4
Andy Pettitte (2004; 3/$31.5; 32) 113 ERA+ before, 132 ERA+ during
Before deal (27-31): 101 ERA+, 111 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 134 ERA+, 109 ERA+
During deal (32-34): 112 ERA+, 177 ERA+, 106 ERA+
200+ IP befor deal: 3/5; During deal: 3/3
Carl Pavano (2005; 4/$39.5; 29) 109 ERA+ before, 46 ERA+ during
Before deal (24-28): 158 ERA+, 70 ERA+, 80 ERA+, 98 ERA+, 137 ERA+
During deal (29-32): 89 ERA+, DNP, 94 ERA+, DNP (minors)
200+ IP before deal: 2/5; During deal: 0/4
Eric Milton (2005; 3/$25.5; 29) 114 ERA+ before, 82 ERA+ during
Before deal (24-28): 106 ERA+, 106 ERA+, 92 ERA+, 171 ERA+, 95 ERA+
During deal (29-31): 66 ERA+, 90 ERA+, 90 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 0/3
Pedro Martinez (2005; 4/$53; 33) 203 ERA+ before, 120 ERA+ during
Before deal (28-32): 291 ERA+, 189 ERA+, 202 ERA+, 210 ERA+, 125 ERA+
During deal (33-36): 145 ERA+, 97 ERA+, 166 ERA+, 71 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 2/5; During deal: 1/4
Matt Morris (2006; 3/$27; 31) 111 ERA+ before, 74 ERA+ during
Before deal (26-30): 137 ERA+, 117 ERA+, 109 ERA+, 90 ERA+, 103 ERA+
During deal (31-33): 90 ERA+, 90 ERA+, 43 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 1/3
A.J. Burnett (2006; 5/$55; 29) 108 ERA+ before, 108 ERA+ during
Before deal (24-28): 104 ERA+, 122 ERA+, 89 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 115 ERA+
During deal (29-31): 115 ERA+, 119 ERA+, 91 ERA+
200+ IP before deal: 2/5; During deal: 0/3 thus far