The Brewers are on a tear in August thus far, winning 9 of 11 games. One of the reasons for their success is a strong offense (5.27 R/G in August), but the pitchers are producing excellent results worthy of praise. Let's celebrate our pitchers with some random facts.
1. Since Sabathia
Since acquiring C.C. Sabathia, the Brewers' clubhouse is energized, and the results are clearly manifest on the field, where the Brewers have maintained a winning percentage above .640 since the trade. Part of the reason for this success is not merely Sabathia's excellent performance, but the excellent performance by the other Brewers starters as well. You can attribute this to Sabathia's presence if you like, but be sure to give each starter their due -- they each deserve a lot of credit for pitching well since the trade:
July 7: 49-40 (.551)
Since: 20-11 (.645) (21/31 QS, 67.7%)
Sheets: 4/6 QS
Parra: 3/6 QS
Sabathia: 6/7 QS
Suppan: 4/5 QS
Bush: 3/5 QS
McClung: 1/2 QS
Every starter since the trade is averaging at least 1 quality start for every 2 games started. That's a solid ratio for a rotation. Even better, Sheets, Sabathia, Suppan, and Bush are each averaging at least 60% or better quality start/per start. That's an excellent ratio for any pitcher, let alone four pitchers on one rotation.
2. Who needs a bullpen?
If the starters have pitched well since the trade, they've been unconscious in August, posting 10/11 quality starts and a record of 8-2 (the bullpen is 1-0). Part of the reason for this success is that the pitchers are eating a ton of innings, and as a result, magnifying the quality of their outings/
By using a "Quality Start Index," where (IP/GS) is divided by (runs average), we can find a stable measurement by which to compare starters. A basic QS Index is (6.00 IP/GS)/(4.50 runs average) = 1.33. In the month of August, each Brewers starter is producing the equivalent of a quality start average or better.
Sabathia: 2-0, 2 GS, 17.3 IP, 2 R; 1.04 runs average, 8.65 IP/GS (8.32)
Bush: 2-0, 2 GS, 13.3 IP, 2 R; 1.35 runs average, 6.65 IP/GS (4.93)
Sheets: 1-1, 2 GS, 15 IP, 3 R; 1.80 runs average, 7.50 IP/GS (4.17)
Suppan: 3-0, 3 GS, 22 IP, 5 R; 2.05 runs average, 7.33 IP/GS (3.58)
Parra: 0-1, 2 GS, 13 IP, 7 R; 4.85 runs average, 6.50 IP/GS (1.34)
August rotation: 8-2, 11 GS, 80.7 IP, 19 R; 2.12 runs average, 7.34 IP/GS
(3.46 QS Index)
Even with his rough start in Cincinnati, Parra is producing a quality start average, on the whole, for August. This means that although he has average more than 3 R per 6 IP, the extra out+ per start is increasing the value of his production.
Sabathia, Bush, Sheets, and Suppan are each producing surreal QS Index numbers.
Keep up the good work!
3. But when the phone rings...
...The bullpen is answering Ned Yost's calls very well, allowing on 5 runs in the entire month of August thus far. The pen has not lost a game and is also 6/6 leads converted. Check out these excellent bullpen results:
Torres: 0-0, 4 G, 4.7 IP, 0 R; 3/3 leads converted; 1/1 IR/IS
Shouse: 0-0, 4 G, 3.3 IP, 0 R; 2/2 leads converted; 1/0 IR/IS
Mota: 1-0, 3 G, 2.7 IP, 0 R; 0/0 leads converted ; 2/0 IR/IS
Gagne: 0-0, 3 G, 2.3 IP, 3 R; 1/1 leads converted; 2/0 IR/IS
McClung: 0-0, 2 G, 2.3 IP, 2 R; 0/0 leads converted
Villanueva: 0-0, 2 G, 4 IP, 0 R; 0/0 leads converted
Riske: 0-0, 1 G, 1 IP, 0 R; 0/0 leads converted
August pen: 1-0, 19 G, 20.3 IP, 5 R; 6/6 leads converted; 6/1 IR/IS (16.7%)
On the whole, the pen only allowed 5 runs to score, and one inherited runner to score. In limited work -- the pen is not even averaging 2 appearances per game in August -- the pen is pitching well, and remaining sharp. Even the 5 R have only come over 3 outings, meaning that 16 of 19 of the bullpen's August appearances have been scoreless (84.2%). That provides the team with an excellent chance to succeed.
Keep it up, bullpenners!
4. IP watch
Here are the current projections of our rotation:
Sheets: 23 GS, 155.3 IP; approx. 9 GS remaining = 32 GS, 216.0 IP
Suppan: 23 GS, 136.3 IP; approx. 8 GS remaining = 31 GS, 183.7 IP
Bush: 22 G, 132.3 IP; approx. 8 GS remaining; 30 G, 180.4 IP
Parra: 24 G, 132 IP; approx. 8 GS remaining; 32 G, 176.0 IP
Sabathia: 7 GS, 57 IP; approx. 9 GS remaining; 16 GS, 130.3 IP
And keep an eye on Parra and Sheets -- Parra is about the surpass his full IP workload for 2007, and will now by fully immersed in "workload gray area."
Although his full season projection has him finishing the season at a reasonable level of 176 IP (43 more IP than 2007), if he continues to work at the level of his last 12 GS (75.3 IP), he could finish with more than 182 IP on the season, which would be almost 50 IP more than his 2007 workload.
Sheets has surpassed his 2007 workload (actually, he did it a couple of starts ago), and he's about to surpass his 2005 workload. Although the ace has a very solid IP foundation behind him from early in his career, where he proved a durable starter that logged 674.3 IP from 2002-2004 (almost 225 IP per season), his IP workload has been limited in recent years because of his injuries.
While Sheets' arm is at a more mature level than Parra, in terms of age and IP foundation, keep an eye on Sheets' stamina -- 9 of his last 12 starts have been inefficient starts, including 3 outings over 115 IP.
Again, his IP foundation is solid and his arm is mature enough to handle the IP workload increase, but I nevertheless want to put him in the "IP watch" category with Parra. It wouldn't hurt Yost to limit the pitches of these two before the September stretch.
Limiting some of their pitches now could help to keep them strong for a September stretch against important competition...
***
Overall, the Brewers' pitching staff as a whole is their strong suit, with some offensive questions coming and going throughout the season. The staff is pitching well, has made adjustments from a few rough stretches during the season, and they deserve all the credit in the world for that.