After working on my initial survey of free agency pitching contracts, I decided to expand the survey and classify it more rigorously; I am unsatisfied with the fact that my initial survey lumped together average pitchers and aces alike. I feel that it is better now to analyze each contract by a production range, and I also expanded the data set to 25 free agency contracts ranging from 1993-2006, which is a lot more contracts than one might think (given that a whole score of pitchers, from Curt Schilling to Javier Vazquez, sign large multi-year contracts outside of free agency).

So, I decided to compile data according to four production ranges and a fifth geographical free agency category: (1) First Tier Aces, (2) Second Tier Aces, (3) Average, (4) below Average, (5) Amateur free agents from Cuba and Japan. I would have liked to used data for Livan Hernandez and Tomo Ohka here, but I could not find reliable information on the nature of their initial contracts. 

The four production ranges are divided simply by a raw aggregate/average ERA+ for the 5-year period preceding the contract; qualifying as a First-Tier ace requires a 5-year raw average ERA+ at 140 or higher (approximately equivalent to a 3.05 average ERA against a 4.32 average league ERA); qualifying as a Second-Tier ace requires a 5-year raw average at 120-140 (approximately equivalent to a 3.70 average ERA against a 4.20 average league ERA).

Qualifying as an average pitcher requires a 5-year raw average ERA+ at 100-120, which provides approximately a 0.50 ERA range from the league average ERA. 100 = league average exactly. Any 5-year raw average ERA+ below 100 qualifies a pitcher as below average.

Now, for the sake of this study, I raised my standards for aces; I think that over a longer career of 15-20 years, an ERA+ closer to 130 could qualify as a very good ace career, but the fact of the matter is, there are a very good number of pitchers that can average near 130 ERA+ within a 5-year period in their career, and get paid accordingly. So while a 125-130 ERA+ career is really good, the best aces perform significantly better than that level of production during average 5-year spans, especially during their primes.

Here are the production averages for the 5-year span before the contract, the age of the player for the first year of the new contract, the production averages for the contract, and any other necessary info (including the length and value of the contract in $millions; options listed where applicable):

1. First Tier Aces

First Tier Aces (140 ERA+): 165 ERA+ before, 144 ERA+ during (110 ERA+ option)

200+ IP before deal: 10/20 (50%); During deal: 12/21 (57%); 0/1 option (0%)

20/$263.55 ($13.18); age 34 at contract (avg. 34-38 during contract)

Yearly: 174 ERA+, 155 ERA+, 152 ERA+, 100 ERA+, 136 ERA+, 106 ERA+, 65 ERA+

Best: Randy Johnson (1999); Worst: Pedro Martinez (2005)

This group of contracts includes four pitchers: Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, and Roger Clemens, who were rewarded for exceptional production in their prime with great contracts in the early-to-mid 30s. This is the oldest group of pitchers for average age span during the life of the contract, but this is also the best group of pitchers in terms of production during the contracts.

Even with the decline in production, we're talking pitchers that are generally sure bets to produce above average seasons late in their 30s, and replicate one or two truly great seasons in their mid-30s.

These are the most rare of pitching contracts -- expensive, handed to the best pitchers, who return very good production for the contract.

2. Second Tier Aces

Second Tier Aces (120 ERA+): 129 ERA+ before, 116 ERA+ during (101 ERA+ option)

200+ IP before deal: 30/35 (86%); During deal: 17/33 (52%); 0/1 option (0%)

33/$378.5 ($11.47); Age 32 at contract (avg. 32-36 during contract)

Yearly: 120 ERA+, 135 ERA+, 137 ERA+, 91 ERA+, 135 ERA+, 65 ERA+, 44 ERA+, 61 ERA+

Best: Greg Maddux (1993); Worst: Mike Hampton (2001)

This range of contracts includes an interesting group of pitchers, such as Greg Maddux early in his career, coming off of a few above average seasons, eventually delivering incredible production during the course of his free agency contract, to Mike Mussina, a solid free agent signing compared with other busts, to Mike Hampton, everyone's favorite contract bust. Tom Glavine, a second Greg Maddux contract, John Smoltz and Bartolo Colon are also included.

These pitchers are more hit-or-miss than the first tier aces, as the ages at which they signed contracts are much different and more varied. Mike Hampton and Greg Maddux (1993) were in their late-20s when they signed their contracts based on promising potential to improve upon already-solid production; Mike Mussina, Bartolo Colon, and John Smoltz were between 30-32, and then two contracts are included for Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine late in their careers, when their production levels were on the decline in general, but remained relatively solid compared to most other pitchers.

Because of the different ages and points of career, the data for these contracts is more mixed; but in general the production is solid during the course of the contract, not meandering too far beyond below average production at the very worst, but also not reaching the best types of seasons that the first tier aces reach.

Of course, Greg Maddux's 1993 contract tears apart these averages, and he surely delivered on his promising potential; the exact opposite of Mike Hampton -- these two pitchers are great studies in contrast...

3. Average

Average (100 ERA+): 110 ERA+ before, 93 ERA+ during (thus far)

200+ IP before deal 23/45 (51%); 8/29 (thus far; 28%)

31/$283.25 ($9.14); age 31 at contract (avg. 31-33 during contract)

Yearly: 98 ERA+, 92 ERA+, 97 ERA+, 54 ERA+

Best: Andy Pettitte (2004); Worst: Carl Pavano (2005)

This group is less unique in terms of pitchers that break through average norms to produce above average seasons -- Andy Pettitte is the best in this group, after his 2004 contract (he basically produced like a strong second-tier ace during the course of his 2004-2006 contract).

Also included in this group are solid innings eaters, like Kenny Rogers (two of his contracts appear) and Eric Milton (although their production levels through the course of their contracts are much different), aging aces like Kevin Appier, who did not maintain a high level of production after his prime, and a whole oddball collection of players that cashed in on one above-average season: Carl Pavano, Matt Morris, A.J. Burnett, and Vincente Padilla. These guys are solid examples of what W-L records can do for pitchers in contract years.

The interesting thing about this group is that although their level of production declines, their average production throughout the course of the contract is rather steady -- this group generally falls below average during the course of the contract, but steadily so.

Here we can see what contract inflation has done for baseball pitchers, as the average contract for an average pitcher in this group (from the late-90s through 2007) is steadily closing in on the price of an ace pitcher.

4. Below Average

Below Average (below 100 ERA+): 82 ERA+ before; 81 ERA+ during

200+ IP before deal 1/10 (10%); During deal 0/6 (0%)

6/$45 ($7.5); age 29 at contract (avg. 29-31 during contract)

Yearly: 80 ERA+, 88 ERA+, 75 ERA+

Best: Odalis Perez (2005); Worst: Jaret Wright (2005)

Here are two pitchers I wanted to include because of how they cashed in on one above average season: Jaret Wright and Odalis Perez.

Easily the most bizarre contracts I found, and a very expensive price tag for their production.

5. Amateur Free Agents

Amateur Free Agents (Japan and Cuba): Unknown ERA+ before; 113 ERA+ during

200 IP+ before deal unknown; During deal 4/12 (33%)

12/$45.01 ($3.75); age 30 at contract (avg. 30-33 during contract)

Yearly: 141 ERA+, 107 ERA+, 108 ERA+, 96 ERA+

Best: Orlando Hernandez (1998); Worst: Hideo Nomo (1995)

This group includes three of the most prominent free agents from Japan and Cuba: Hideo Nomo, Jose Contreras, and Orlando Hernandez. As I noted above, I could not find particularly reliable contract information on Livan Hernandez and Tomo Ohka, so I did not include them.

What's unique about this group is that they are signed at an age similar to second-tier aces, and they produce at a similar level to second tier aces (on average). The contract progression is generally pretty even for these three pitchers: one well-above average season, and a couple of (basically) average seasons.

***

I wish I could include some of the more recent contracts, like Jeff Suppan, Barry Zito, Jason Marquis, Ted Lilly, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Carlos Silva, and Gil Meche, among others, but their contracts have not accumulated enough time for which to fairly judge the performance during the contract.

As for our two aces, both C.C.'s and Sheets' 2004-2008 seasons fall squarely within the range of the second tier ace, perhaps on the upper border of that distinction. Neither has produced a 5-year aggregate average worthy of First Tier consideration, but the interesting thing will be to see (1) how they are paid, and (2) how their contracts compare to the norms that these contracts provide...

Will C.C. Sabathia break the trend of second-tier aces, and explode like Greg Maddux did in his prime? Will either C.C. or Ben become the next Mike Hampton? Or will both fall more towards the middle, and produce like Mike Mussina -- steady, generally average, with some dips below average and some good, solid above average seasons?

****

For further reading, the raw data:

First Tier Aces (140 ERA+): 165 ERA+ before, 144 ERA+ during (110 ERA+ option)

200+ IP before deal: 10/20 (50%); During deal: 12/21 (57%); 0/1 option (0%)

20/$263.55; age 34 at contract (avg. 34-38 during contract)

Yearly: 174 ERA+, 155 ERA+, 152 ERA+, 100 ERA+, 136 ERA+, 106 ERA+, 65 ERA+

Best: Randy Johnson (1999); Worst: Pedro Martinez (2005)

Randy Johnson (1999; 4/$53.4 (+option); 35) 162 ERA+ before, 188 ERA+ during, 110 ERA+ option

            Before Deal (30-34): 154 ERA+, 192 ERA+, 135 ERA+, 196 ERA+, 135 ERA+

            During Deal (35-39): 186 ERA+, 181 ERA+, 188 ERA+, 197 ERA+, 110 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 4/4; 0/1 (option)

Kevin Brown (1999; 7/$105; 34) 153 ERA+ before, 126 ERA+ during

            Before Deal (29-33): 101 ERA+, 132 ERA+, 216 ERA+, 150 ERA+, 164 ERA+

            During Deal (34-40): 143 ERA+, 169 ERA+, 150 ERA+, 79 ERA+, 169 ERA+,

                        110 ERA+, 65 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 3/7

Pedro Martinez (2005; 4/$53; 33) 203 ERA+ before, 120 ERA+ during

            Before deal (28-32): 291 ERA+, 189 ERA+, 202 ERA+, 210 ERA+, 125 ERA+

            During deal (33-36): 145 ERA+, 97 ERA+, 166 ERA+, 71 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 2/5; During deal: 1/4

Roger Clemens (1997; 5/$52.15; 34) 142 ERA+ before, 143 ERA+ after

            Before deal (29-33): 175 ERA+, 104 ERA+, 177 ERA+, 116 ERA+, 139 ERA+

During deal (34-39): 221 ERA+, 174 ERA+, 103 ERA+, 130 ERA+128 ERA+,

102 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 2/5; During deal: 4/6

 Second Tier Aces (120 ERA+): 129 ERA+ before, 116 ERA+ during (101 ERA+ option)

200+ IP before deal: 30/35 (86%); During deal: 17/33 (52%); 0/1 option (0%)

33/$378.5 ($11.47); Age 32 at contract (avg. 32-36 during contract)

Yearly: 120 ERA+, 135 ERA+, 137 ERA+, 91 ERA+, 135 ERA+, 65 ERA+, 44 ERA+, 61 ERA+

Best: Greg Maddux (1993); Worst: Mike Hampton (2001)

Tom Glavine (2003; 3/$35(+ option); 37): 135 ERA+ before, 109 ERA+ during, 114 ERA+ option

            Before deal (32-36): 168 ERA+, 109 ERA+, 135 ERA+, 125 ERA+, 140 ERA+

            During deal (37-40): 93 ERA+, 119 ERA+, 116 ERA+, 114 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 5/5; During deal: 2/3; 0/1 (option)

Greg Maddux (2004; 3/$24; 38) 138 ERA+ before, 107 ERA+ during

            Before deal (33-37): 125 ERA+, 153 ERA+, 146 ERA+, 159 ERA+, 108 ERA+

            During deal (38-40): 109 ERA+, 104 ERA+, 109 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 4/5; During deal: 3/3

John Smoltz (1997; 4/$31; 30) 125 ERA+ before, 105 ERA+ during

            Before Deal (25-29): 129 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 102 ERA+, 134 ERA+, 149 ERA+

            During Deal (30-33): 138 ERA+, 143 ERA+, 140 ERA+, DNP

            200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: ¼

Mike Hampton (2001; 8/$121; 28) 126 ERA+ before, 71 ERA+ during

            Before Deal (23-27): 108 ERA+, 104 ERA+, 122 ERA+, 154 ERA+, 142 ERA+

            During Deal (28-35): 98 ERA+, 78 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 101 ERA+, 121 ERA+,

                        DNP, DNP, 61 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 4/5; During deal: 1/8

Mike Mussina (2001; 6/$88.5 (+option); 32) 126 ERA+ before, 117 ERA+ during, 87 ERA+ option

            Before Deal (27-31): 103 ERA+, 137 ERA+, 129 ERA+, 134 ERA+, 125 ERA+

            During Deal (32-38): 142 ERA+, 109 ERA+, 129 ERA+, 98 ERA+, 96 ERA+,

                        129 ERA+, 87 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 5/5; During deal: 3/6; 0/1 option

Bartolo Colon (2004; 4/$51; 31) 126 ERA+ before, 93 ERA+ during

            Before deal (26-30): 127 ERA+, 127 ERA+, 110 ERA+, 147 ERA+, 119 ERA+

            During deal (31-34): 90 ERA+, 122 ERA+, 89 ERA+, 72 ERA+)

            200+ IP before deal: 4/5; During deal: 2/4

Greg Maddux (1993; 5/$28; 27); 128 ERA+ before, 211 ERA+ during

            Before deal (22-26): 114 ERA+, 128 ERA+, 119 ERA+, 115 ERA+, 166 ERA+

            During deal (27-31): 171 ERA+, 271 ERA+, 262 ERA+, 162 ERA+, 189 ERA+

            200+ before deal: 5/5; During deal: 5/5

 Average (100 ERA+): 110 ERA+ before, 93 ERA+ during (thus far)

200+ IP before deal 23/45 (51%); 8/29 (thus far; 28%)

31/$283.25 ($9.14); age 31 at contract (avg. 31-33 during contract)

Yearly: 98 ERA+, 92 ERA+, 97 ERA+, 54 ERA+

Best: Andy Pettitte (2004); Worst: Carl Pavano (2005)

Kevin Appier (2001; 3/$30; 33) 107 ERA+ before, 104 ERA+ during

            Before Deal (28-32): 138 ERA+, 137 ERA+, 61 ERA+, 94 ERA+, 104 ERA+

            During Deal (33-35): 117 ERA+, 113 ERA+, 83 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 1/3

Andy Pettitte (2004; 3/$31.5; 32) 113 ERA+ before, 132 ERA+ during

            Before deal (27-31): 101 ERA+, 111 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 134 ERA+, 109 ERA+

            During deal (32-34): 112 ERA+, 177 ERA+, 106 ERA+

            200+ IP befor deal: 3/5; During deal: 3/4

Carl Pavano (2005; 4/$39.5; 29) 109 ERA+ before, 46 ERA+ during

            Before deal (24-28): 158 ERA+, 70 ERA+, 80 ERA+, 98 ERA+, 137 ERA+

            During deal (29-32): 89 ERA+, DNP, 94 ERA+, DNP (minors)

            200+ IP before deal: 2/5; During deal: 0/4

Eric Milton (2005; 3/$25.5; 29) 114 ERA+ before, 82 ERA+ during

            Before deal (24-28): 106 ERA+, 106 ERA+, 92 ERA+, 171 ERA+, 95 ERA+

            During deal (29-31): 66 ERA+, 90 ERA+, 90 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 0/3

Matt Morris (2006; 3/$27; 31) 111 ERA+ before, 74 ERA+ during

            Before deal (26-30): 137 ERA+, 117 ERA+, 109 ERA+, 90 ERA+, 103 ERA+

            During deal (31-33): 90 ERA+, 90 ERA+, 43 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 1/3

A.J. Burnett (2006; 5/$55; 29) 108 ERA+ before, 108 ERA+ during (thus far)

            Before deal (24-28): 104 ERA+, 122 ERA+, 89 ERA+, 112 ERA+, 115 ERA+

            During deal (29-31): 115 ERA+, 119 ERA+, 91 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 2/5; During deal: 0/3 thus far

Vincente Padilla (2007; 3/$33.75; 29): 104 ERA+ before; 82 ERA+ during (thus far)

            Before deal (24-28): 118 ERA+, 110 ERA+, 99 ERA+, 93 ERA+, 102 ERA+

            During deal (29-31): 78 ERA+, 86 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 3/5; During deal: 0/2 (thus far)

Kenny Rogers (1996; 4/$20; 31); 111 ERA+ before, 109 ERA+ during

            Before deal (26-30): 75 ERA+, 124 ERA+, 101 ERA+, 109 ERA+, 144 ERA+

            During deal (31-34): 107 ERA+, 79 ERA+, 143 ERA+, 108 ERA+

            200 IP+ before deal 2/5; During deal: 1/4

Kenny Rogers (2000; 3/$22.5; 35); 116 ERA+ before; 103 ERA+ during

            Before deal (30-34): 144 ERA+, 107 ERA+, 79 ERA+, 143 ERA+, 108 ERA+

            During deal (35-37): 110 ERA+, 76 ERA+, 124 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal 2/5; During deal: 2/3

 Below Average (below 100 ERA+): 82 ERA+ before; 81 ERA+ during

200+ IP before deal 1/10 (10%); During deal 0/6 (0%)

6/$45 ($7.5); age 29 at contract (avg. 29-31 during contract)

Yearly: 80 ERA+, 88 ERA+, 75 ERA+

Best: Odalis Perez (2005); Worst: Jaret Wright (2005)

Jaret Wright (2005; 3/$21; 29): 77 ERA+ before; 79 ERA+ during

            Before deal (24-28): 105 ERA+, 69 ERA+, 28 ERA+, 54 ERA+, 131 ERA+

            During deal (29-31): 70 ERA+, 101 ERA+, 66 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 0/5; During deal: 0/3

Odalis Perez (2005; 3/$24; 28): 86 ERA+ before; 83 ERA+ during

            Before deal (23-27): DNP, 91 ERA+, 126 ERA+, 89 ERA+, 126 ERA+

            During deal (28-30): 90 ERA+, 74 ERA+, 84 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal: 1/5; During deal: 0/3

Amateur Free Agents (Japan and Cuba): Unknown ERA+ before; 113 ERA+ during

200 IP+ before deal unknown; During deal 4/12 (33%)

12/$45.01 ($3.75); age 30 at contract (avg. 30-33 during contract)

Yearly: 141 ERA+, 107 ERA+, 108 ERA+, 96 ERA+

Best: Orlando Hernandez (1998); Worst: Hideo Nomo (1995)

Hideo Nomo (1995; 4/$6.41; 26): Unknown ERA+ before; 112 ERA+ during

            Before deal (21-25): Unknown

            During deal (26-29): 150 ERA+, 122 ERA+, 91 ERA+, 84 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal unknown; During deal: 2/4

Orlando Hernandez (1998; 4/$6.6; 32): Unknown ERA+ before; 114 ERA+ during

            Before deal (27-31): Unknown

            During deal (32-35): 141 ERA+, 115 ERA+, 107 ERA+, 92 ERA+

            200+ before deal unknown; During deal: 1/4

Jose Contreras (2003; 4/$32; 31): Unknown ERA+ before; 113 ERA+ during

            Before deal (26-30): Unknown

            During deal (31-34): 133 ERA+, 84 ERA+, 125 ERA+, 111 ERA+

            200+ IP before deal unknown; During deal: 1/4

BTW, here's how the raw averages of age during contract and yearly ERA+ average compare to one another: