Recently I've chatted up our bullpen as being a very good pen; however, completing some research here and there, I realized that since July, the bullpen has not been as good as I imagined. The main culprits in this bullpen slide are surprisingly Salomon Torres and -- not so surprising -- David Riske.

Meanwhile, Eric Gagne, Brian Shouse, Carlos Villanueva, and Guillermo Mota are pitching from various shades of good-to-great.

So, I decided to dig through some game logs and try to find an explanation for what might have sparked this bullpen slide; my suspicion is that the series of role changes and the bullpen shuffle completed on May 24th have something to do with it. But that is merely a hypothesis at the moment.

May 24th is a somewhat natural splitting date for our pen; it immediately precedes the team's hot streak; it immediately follows Gagne's trip to the DL, it marks Torres' coup of the closer's role,  and Villanueva's placement in the pen, for McClung's placement in the rotation.

First, an overall look at our most important and most utilized relievers. I basically ranked them by a combination of leads converted % and the % of games that were entered within 1-R (ties, 1-R defecits, and 1-R leads). Basically the idea is, who is converting the most leads and pitching in the most close games (two crucial bullpen traits). I also included an estimate of bullpen flexibility by finding the inning into which a given reliever enters most frequently, and dividing that by their total appearances (thus, listed as their "% entered in inning X"). I also included IR/IS%.

Torres: 31/37 leads converted (83.8%), 50% 1-run games, 58.3% appearances entered in the 9^th; 24 IR/7 IS (29.2%)

Villanueva: 10/10 leads converted (100%), 43.3% 1-run games, 36.7% appearances entered in the 6^th; 16 IR/1 IS (6.3%)

Mota: 11/13 leads converted (84.6%), 38% 1-run games, 64% appearances entered in the 8^th; 21 IR/4 IS (19.0%)

Shouse: 17/20 leads converted (85%), 34.4% 1-run games, 40.6% entered in the 8^th; 52 IR/18 IS (34.6%)

Riske: 13/18 leads converted (72.2%), 41.9% 1-R games, 37.2% entered in the 8^th; 26 IR/8 IS (30.7%)

Gagne: 15/21 leads converted (71.4%); 42.5% 1-run games; 50% entered in the 9^th; 6 IR/1 IS (16.7%)

 

Now to the game log splits before and after May 24th. What we will find is that most roles changed, perhaps in interesting ways. The most telling usage is for Villanueva, who I initially thought took McClung's role, not facing many leads and entering the game early in the middle innings...

Villanueva started before May 24

Villanueva after May 24: 11/30 entered in the 6^th (.367)

            5/5 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 6^th

            3/3 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 7th

            2/2 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 8^th

 

I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why Villanueva is only seeing a close lead in 1/3 of his outings -- although what might be telling is that he does also appear in a good % of tie games and 1-R defecits. A very valuable role -- which was oddly enough close to Riske's role prior to the switcheroo (and his own injury)...

Riske before May 24: 7/18 entered in the 6^th (.389)

            3/3 leads converted (1.000) entered in the 6th

2/2 leads converted (1.000) entered in the 8th

1/1 leads converted (1.000) entered in the 7^th

1/1 leads converted (1.000) entered in the 10^th

Riske after May 24^th: 11/25 entered in the 8^th (.440)

            2/3 leads converted (.667) entered in the 8th

1/4 leads converted (.250) entered in the 7^th

1/1 leads converted (1.000)entered in the 10^th

 

For some odd reason, upon his return, Riske entered more of his games in the 8th, and was used in a less flexible way than the first portion of the season, when he was very effective facing ties, close defecits, and a small percentage of leads. Notice his 38.9% leads opportunities and early game entrance (38.9% entrance into the 6th) almost exactly mimics Villanueva's 33.3% leads opportunities and early game entrance (36.7% entrance into the 6th).

But why is Riske not returned to that role? Numerous issues of perception, I think, dealing with (a) Gagne's successes and failures, and (b) Mota's perceived failures in the 8th...

Mota before May 24: 13/18 entered in the 8^th (.722)

5/5 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 8^th

1/2 leads opportunities (.500) entered in the 9^th

Mota after May 24: 19/33 entered in the 8^th (.576)

            3/4 leads opportunities (.750) entered in the 8^th

            1/1 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 7^th

            1/1 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 6^th

 

Oddly enough, Mota was a relatively successful 8th inning reliever with leads, with most of his difficulties coming in games without the lead, or games with the tie.

Since May 24th, then, Mota is being utilized more flexibly, and is still facing most of his leads in the 8th...along with Riske (they have combined to face 7 leads opportunities in the 8th since May 24th)...

Gagne is also a member of this 8th inning "platoon"...along with Shouse:

Gagne before May 24^th: 16/20 entered in the 9^th  (.800)

            8/12 leads converted (.667) entered in the 9^th

            2/3 leads converted (.667) entered in the 10^th

Gagne after May 24: 15/20 entered in the 8^th (.750)

            3/4 leads converted (.750) entered in the 8^th

            1/1 leads converted (1.000) entered in the 7^th

 

Shouse before May 24: 8/24 entered in the 7^th (.333)

            3/4 leads converted (.750) entered in the 7^th

            3/3 leads convetred (1.000) entered in the 8th

            1/1 leads convetred (1.000) entered in the 9^th

Shouse after May 24: 17/40 entered in the 8^th (.425)

            5/6 leads converted (.833) entered in the 7^th

            4/5 leads converted (.800) entered in the 8th

1/1 leads convetered (1.000) entered in the 6^th

 

Oddly enough, after May 24th, Gagne's and Mota's usage by Yost became more flexible, whereas Shouse and Riske were used more rigidly. This is exactly backwards from where it should be, especially given how Mota's and Gagne's stuff compare with the stuff of Shouse and Riske. Riske and Shouse are perfect flexible "plug-in" arms, whereas Mota and Gagne have the strong power arms conducive to a more rigid role.

Of course, all of this is thrown up in arms because of the usage of Torres in the closer's role:

Torres before May 24: 10/23 entered in the 7^th (.435)

            4/6 leads opportunities (.667) entered in the 7^th

            1/1 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 8^th

            1/1 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 9th

Torres after May 24: 32/37 entered in the 9^th (.865)

            22/26 leads opportunities (.846) entered in the 9^th

2/2 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 8^th

            1/1 leads opportunities (1.000) entered in the 11^th

 

Imagine this: you have a strong power sinker veteran with an excellent innings eating attitude and innings eating history. You utilize him flexibly -- and then, when things get turned upside down, you choose him to work in the rigid closer's role.

Look at Torres since May 24th: the percentage with which he enters the 9th doubles the percentage with which he entered his most frequent inning before May 24th...Yost lost a valuable reliever that he used to convert leads in the 7th (6 leads opportunities for Torres), eat lots of innings, pitch in extra innings, and pitch in all sorts of here-and-there outings.

While I like our bullpen talent, and I do think some things are right (like Villanueva being utilized flexibily), other things could change: (1) Villanueva should face more leads opportunities. If Torres must remain closer, Villanueva should almost exactly mimick Torres' previous 7th inning set -up / random flexible usage pattrern. (2) Riske and Shouse must be used less rigidly, whereas Gagne and Mota ought to be used more rigidly. (3) Riske should face fewer leads opportunities than Shouse and Mota; and (4) I do think Torres should be moved out of the closer's role...

Here is my advanced bullpen:

(1) Closer (rigid): Mota

(2) Closer (flexible) / 8th inning set up: Torres

(3) Flexible / 7th inning set up: Villanueva

(4) Flexible / 6th inning set up / defecits: Riske

(5) Rigid / 8th inning: Gagne

(6) Flexible leads converted: Shouse

(7) Mop-up / ties / extras / multiple IP: McClung

(8) Call-ups: random roles / resting roles