Most Valuable Pitching Seasons, 1954-2007

I am currently working on finding the nuances of VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), a defense-independent stat that measures the number of runs contributed beyond what an average player would contribute. The state is utilized for position players and pitchers alike at Baseball Prospectus, and I'm more interested in the pitching side of it, for the moment.

My interest in the stat increases daily as I'm attempting to figure out how to explain the salient aspects of C.C. Sabathia's value to the Brewers, especially given that his run support is solid (although decreasing recently), so I don't think his W-L record is a statement of his value. I also think his basic ERA, WHIP, and IP/GS do not simply capture his value.

So, I started looking at VORP, as well as other stats (such as Runs Prevented), and while I enjoy the stat because it reflects solid lists of who the most valuable players and pitchers are in a season, I asked myself, how does VORP ranking compare over the seasons, and more specifically: what is a good VORP?

Now, the brilliance of VORP is that it is a league dependent stat, measuring pitchers against the average, which is generally a very good start to considering value. For the same reason, I love stats like ERA+, simply because if I told you I had a pitcher with a 3.75 ERA to trade to you in 1967, you'd react differently than if I told you tomorrow that I have a pitcher with a 3.75 ERA to trade to you.

***

This survey is simple: while falling asleep and having my morning coffee recently, I simply ran through the VORP listings from 1954-2007 (BP first lists VORP in 1954), and compiled a list of the most valuable seasons, initially by decade. My first cut-off was rather arbitrary -- I guessed at a VORP of 60.0 as a starting point, which actually worked well because there are several seasons from the 1950s into the early 1980s where no pitcher registers a VORP of 60.0.

Although, at the end of the day, a VORP of 60.0 is rather pedestrian as far as elite value goes; since 1954 there are 311 individual pitching seasons that have a VORP of 60.0 or above.

Organizing these seasons, then, the cut-offs become more and more elite; from 311 individual seasons at 60.0, the number of individual seasons that reached a VORP of 75.0 since 1954 drops to 93; at 80.0 or higher, the number of individual pitching seasons drops to 59; and at 85.0 or higher, only 32 individual seasons reached a VORP of 85.0 or higher since 1954.

I chose this as a group elite value seasons, and I included other basic stats for further reference: IP, ERA+, WHIP, and K/BB. These elements are important because we see that over time, different traits hold different value. In the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, the very best VORP seasons feature very high IP totals because the eras were not as inclined to offense, so a basic low-runs allowed total was not enough to do the trick in terms of value. Into the 1990s and 2000s, pitchers with great VORP seasons can generally get away with pitching fewer innings and maintain solid value simply because the average is much lower given the inclination towards offense in the contemporary game.

So, enough of that, here's the good stuff: the 32 most valuable pitching seasons, 1954-2007:

1. Pedro Martinez, 2000 (116.7)         217 IP,            291 ERA+,      0.74 WHIP, 284 K/32 BB

2. Roger Clemens, 1997 (116.3)         264 IP,            221 ERA+,      1.03 WHIP, 292 K/68 BB

3. Pedro Martinez, 1999 (102.3)         213.3 IP,         243 ERA+,   0.92 WHIP, 313 K/37 BB

4. Sandy Koufax, 1966 (99.8)            323 IP,             190 ERA+,     0.99 WHIP,  317 K/77 BB

5. Randy Johnson, 1999 (99.3)           271.7 IP,          186 ERA+, 1.02 WHIP, 364 K/70 BB

6. Dwight Gooden, 1985 (99.3)         276.7 IP,            228 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP, 268 K/69 BB

7. Jim Palmer, 1975 (98.7)                  323 IP,            169 ERA+,     1.03 WHIP, 193 K/80 BB

8. Pat Hentgen, 1996 (98.2)                265.7 IP,          155 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 177 K/94 BB

9. Steve Carlton, 1972 (97.3)              346.3 IP,          182 ERA+,  0.99 WHIP, 310 K/87 BB

10. Ron Guidry, 1978 (94.6)              273.7 IP,           208 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 248 K/72 BB

11. Greg Maddux, 1995 (94.2)           209.7 IP,           262 ERA+, 0.81 WHIP, 181 K/23 BB

12. Roger Clemens, 1987 (92.8)         281.7 IP,           154 ERA+, 1.18 WHIP, 256 K/83 BB

13. Dean Chance, 1964 (92.8)            278.3 IP,            198 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 207 K/86 BB

14. Randy Johnson, 2001 (90.8)         249.7 IP,          188 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 372 K/71 BB

15. Johan Santana, 2004 (89.5)           228 IP,            183 ERA+,     0.92 WHIP, 265 K/54 BB

16. Tom Seaver, 1971 (88.9)               286.3 IP,        193 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 289 K/61 BB

17. Jim Palmer, 1976 (88.7)                315 IP,            130 ERA+,     1.08 WHIP, 159 K/84 BB

18. Greg Maddux, 1997 (88.5)           232.7 IP,          189 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 177 K/20 BB

19. Kevin Brown, 1996 (88.4)            233 IP,            216 ERA+,     0.94 WHIP, 159 K/33 BB

20. Bob Gibson, 1969 (88.3)              314 IP,            164 ERA+,     1.10 WHIP, 269 K/95 BB

21. Sandy Koufax, 1963 (88.1)          311 IP,             159 ERA+,     0.88 WHIP, 306 K/58 BB

22. Tom Seaver, 1973 (87.7)               290 IP,           175 ERA+,     0.98 WHIP, 251 K/64 BB

23. Pedro Martinez, 1997 (87.6)         241.3 IP,         219 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP, 305 K/67 BB

24. Randy Johnson, 1995 (87.5)         214.3 IP,         192 ERA+, 1.05 WHIP, 294 K/65 BB

25. Vida Blue, 1971 (87.4)                 312 IP,            185 ERA+,     0.95 WHIP, 301 K/88 BB

26. Sandy Koufax, 1965 (87.4)          335.7 IP,          160 ERA+, 0.86 WHIP, 382 K/71 BB

27. Jim Palmer, 1973 (86.3)                293.3 IP,         156 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 158 K/113 BB

28. Roger Clemens, 1998 (86.3)         234.7 IP,          174 ERA+,  1.10 WHIP, 271 K/88 BB

29. Early Wynn, 1956 (85.7)              277.7 IP,          154 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP, 158 K/91 BB

30. Bob Gibson, 1968 (85.4)              304.7 IP,         258 ERA+, 0.85 WHIP, 268 K/62 BB

31. Jimmy Key, 1987 (85.4)               261 IP,           164 ERA+,     1.06 WHIP, 161 K/66 BB

32. Randy Johnson, 2000 (85.0)         248.7 IP,        181 ERA+, 1.12 WHIP, 347 K/76 BB

 

 

 

***

Here's what I find incredibly interesting: Of the 32 most valuable seasons, 16 are owned by only 5 pitchers!

 

Randy Johnson (4), Pedro Martinez (3), Roger Clemens (3), Sandy Koufax (3), and Jim Palmer (3).

 

You would be hard-pressed to find company any more elite than that within the last 54 seasons.

 

 

What I really like about these results is that they show that not just anyone pitches the most valuable, the very best, the best of the best seasons.

 

The  most valuable seasons in the MLB are put together by pitchers that largely have great careers, perhaps the best careers.

 

Anyway, how many people would disagree with a list that had Clemens, The Big Unit, Pedro, Koufax, and Palmer as the five best in the last 50 years+?

Comments

 

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - The Junkball Blues said:

In the wake of my all-time VORP study, I have a lot of good little back stories to work on. For instance

September 16, 2008 12:09 AM
 

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - The Junkball Blues said:

One of the advantages of my VORP survey, from seasons1954-present, published here during the baseball

January 12, 2009 6:58 AM
 

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - The Junkball Blues said:

This was posted by Dan as a story earlier in the week. Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

July 2, 2009 6:45 AM
 

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - The Junkball Blues said:

I'll be compiling rankings by pitching spots for 2009 NL pitchers over the next few days, but overall

October 5, 2009 7:12 AM

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About This Blog

I'm Nicholas Zettel, and I've got the Junkball Blues. All I need for a cure is a sinkerball pitcher here, a curveball specialist there, and a bunch of guys with fastballs that top out in the high-80s. And those days when the knuckleball wasn't a speciality pitch, and pitchers simply kept one in their back pocket? That's what I'm talking about!

I write for Sportsbubbler.com, and this is the research I compile along the way. I love power-speed combo players, garbage time relievers, and the walking medicine cabinets that played baseball in the 1960s and 1970s, and got away with it.

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