With rumors asserting that Sabathia is due for anywhere from 6 to 8 years on his 2009 free agency deal, I decided to take a look at six of the most recent 6-year deals signed by starting pitchers in the MLB...I used pitchers that signed free agency deals as well as those that signed extension deals, and posted their 3 best seasons prior to the signing of the long deal. I organized their best seasons by VORP and ERA+, because there are sometimes differences between those stats and how they rank the value of a season.
I also included the amount the player received in the market.
Kevin Brown (1986-1998): 7/$105 million for 1999; age 34 OD 1999
Best VORP seasons (20 GS min):
1996: 88.4 VORP / 233 IP
1998: 81.9 VORP / 257 IP
1997: 71.3 VORP / 237.3 IP
Best ERA+ seasons (20 GS min):
1996: 216 ERA+ / 233 IP
1998: 164 ERA+ / 257 IP
1997: 150 ERA+ / 237.3 IP
Johan Santana (2000-2007): 6/$137.5 million for 2008 (plus option); age 28 OD 2008
Best VORP seasons (20 GS min):
2004: 89.5 VORP / 228 IP
2006: 79.6 VORP / 233.7 IP
2005: 73.0 VORP / 231.7 IP
Best ERA+ seasons (20 GS min):
2004: 182 ERA+ / 228 IP
2006: 161 ERA+ / 233.7 IP
2005: 155 ERA+ / 231.7 IP
Pedro Martinez (1992-1997): 6/$75 million for 1998 (plus option); age 26 OD 1998
Best VORP seasons (20 GS min):
1997: 87.6 VORP / 241.3 IP
1995: 45.0 VORP / 194.7 IP
1996: 40.6 VORP / 216.7 IP
Best ERA+ seasons (20 GS min):
1997: 219 ERA+, 241.3 IP
1994: 125 ERA+, 144.7 IP
1995: 123 ERA+, 194.7 IP
Mike Mussina (1991-2000); 6/$88.5 million for 2001 (plus option); age 32 OD 2001
Best VORP seasons (20 GS min):
1992: 72.4 VORP / 241 IP
1995: 72.4 VORP / 221.7 IP
2000: 69.1 VORP / 237.7 IP
Best ERA+ seasons (20 GS min):
1994: 163 ERA+ / 176.3 IP
1992: 157 ERA+ / 241 IP
1995: 145 ERA+ / 221 IP
Mike Hampton (1993-2000): 8/$121 million for 2001; age 28 OD 2001
Best VORP seasons (20 GS min):
1999: 76.2 VORP / 239 IP
2000: 60.4 VORP / 217.7 IP
1998: 39.9 VORP / 211.7 IP
Best ERA+ seasons (20 GS min)
1999: 154 ERA+ / 239 IP
2000: 142 ERA+ / 217.7 IP
1998: 122 ERA+ / 211.7 IP
Barry Zito (2000-2006); 7/$126 million for 2007 (plus option); age 28 OD 2007
Best VORP seasons (20 GS min):
2002: 75.3 VORP / 229.3 IP
2003: 56.1 VORP / 231.7 IP
2001: 51.2 VORP / 214.3 IP
Best ERA+ seasons (20 GS min):
2002: 158 ERA+ / 229.3 IP
2003: 134 ERA+ / 231.7 IP
2001: 125 ERA+ / 214.3 IP
Kevin Brown has the best of the best seasons prior to signing a deal, and he was lucky enough to have his three best years immediately prior to his free agency season after 1998. Not only did he post the best 1-2 VORP seasons of any of these pitchers, his third best VORP season prior to signing the contract was almost as valuable as most other pitchers' top VORP seasons.
Pedro Martinez is a bit top-heavy, and his second and third best VORP seasons were not as strong as others on the list, but I kept him ranked according to his top score because he was also the youngest of any of those pitchers prior to signing his extension. Mike Mussina's best season might not be as good, but I would argue that his aggregate top 3 seasons are probably better than Pedro's three best seasons prior to their deals.
Mike Hampton and Barry Zito also had lower second-and-third-best seasons, although their top seasons are very strong.
Where does Sabathia rank?
C.C. Sabathia (2001-2008); age 28 OD 2009
Best VORP seasons (20 GS min):
2008: 67.6 aggregate (Cle/Mil) / 237 IP
2007: 65.2 VORP / 241 IP
2006: 46.5 VORP / 192.7 IP
Best ERA+ seasons (20 GS min):
2008: 154 ERA+ / 237 IP
2007: 143 ERA+ / 241 IP
2006: 140 ERA+ / 192.7 IP
I had to put together a raw "aggregate" of C.C.'s two VORP scores for 2008, which is unscientific and not desirable, but paints somewhat of a clear picture about his overall season. His ERA+ for 2008 confirms that 2008 is indeed his best season overall, thus far (one or two remaining starts probably doesn't change that much).
Sabathia will deservedly win the largest contract for 2009 because he is the best pitcher on the market, but compared with recent contracts, he does not reach the peak levels of Kevin Brown, Johan Santana, and maybe even Mike Mussina. He arguably has a stronger aggregate body of work than Pedro Martinez, but Pedro was also 2 years younger when he signed his extension.
What's unique about these deals is the various ranges of success and failure after the contract signing: thus far the Zito deal is a poor value signing, and the Santana deal is off to a strong start. Sabathia's best seasons are closer to Zito than Santana, but that doesn't necessarily mean that his deal will be a poor value signing. Mike Hampton's production is eerily similar to Sabathia's prior to their respective deals, and people could say the same thing about both 28-year old lefties that were relatively durable prior their signing.
Then there is Pedro's extension, which included one of the best primes in the history of baseball.
Time will tell where Sabathia's deal ranks him...