This was just posted by Dan on the main site, and I wanted to post it here as well. Enjoy!

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The Brewers are going to the playoffs for the first time in 26 years! Now, I’ve celebrated about 1,000 times now by listening to and replaying Uecker’s Game Recap, which sends chills down my spine and leaves me grinning from ear to ear every time. This is a special accomplishment for a team that went through its rebuilding phase, worked through some difficult growing pains once the talent was there, came short a couple of years, and for that, for their hard work, this playoff berth is so much sweeter. Congratulations, Brewers, you deserve it for your perseverance, exciting play, and years of hard work!

But now let’s get to the real fun – we finally have two generational Brewers playoff  teams to compare! On the surface, our last two playoff teams are markedly similar. Both are the type of rough and tumble, slugging teams that Milwaukee fans love, and both have an uncanny style of procrastination. Could it have occurred any other way, that the ’82 Brew Crew clinched on the last day of the season, and the ’08 Brewers did exactly the same? Say what you will, both teams had their style, and preferred to enter the playoff scene fashionably late.

Beyond these surface similarities, there are a lot of differences between these two teams, and utilizing historical stats, and league average stats, we can find the most valuable players of both teams, and the value of all the main contributors in general, in order to compare both teams.

The biggest difference is that the 1982 Brewers slugged away during an era that was less inclined to offense, so the ’82 high output offense was much more valuable in that year than the ’08 Brewers’ offense was this year. Subsequently, the pitching climate was more difficult in 2008, and above average pitchers become more valuable in this post-steroids era than they were in ’82 – or rather, I should say that above average pitchers look different now.

Here are the climates that each team played within:

1982 AL Offense (Park Adjusted): .257/.320/.391

2008 NL Offense (Park Adjusted): .269/.341/.429

1982 AL Pitching (Park Adjusted): 3.80 ERA

2008 NL Pitching (Park Adjusted): 4.35 ERA

These climates will shape the value of the players, and how we compare them across 26 years of baseball.

1. Offense

Harvey’s Wallbangers were especially known for one thing, and that was putting up power, slugging the ball all around County Stadium with a high octane offense lead by Robin Yount, Cecil Cooper, and Paul Molitor. While the 2007 Brewers posted similarly historical HR totals, the 2008 Brewers fell off the power slightly, and were not as explosive with the slugging bats. This makes for a unique comparison.

C: Jason Kendall (151 G, .246/.327/.324; 72 OPS+) vs. Ted Simmons (137 G, .269/.309/.451; 112 OPS+)

2B: Rickie Weeks (129 G, .234/.342/.398; 93 OPS+) vs. Jim Gantner (132 G, .295/.335/.369; 99 OPS+)

SS: J.J. Hardy (146 G, .283/.343/.478; 113 OPS+) vs. Robin Yount (156 G, .331/.379/.578; 166 OPS+)

CF: Mike Cameron (120 G, .243/.331/.477; 108 OPS+) vs. Gorman Thomas (158 G, .245/.343/.506; 137 OPS+)

Up the middle, it’s easy to see the strength of Harvey’s Wallbangers. Robin Yount produced at a phenomenal level at shortstop, providing an anchor for the Brewers’ offense at a traditionally defensive position (or rather, a position not known for its offensive contributors). But anyone that thinks it was Cal Ripken, Jr. that spurred the “big hitting SS” should take a look at Robin Yount’s prime numbers, including 1982.

Similarly, J.J. Hardy was the most valuable producer up the middle for the 2008 Crew, although Mike Cameron's production was not far behind in centerfield.

Yet another advantage for the 1982 Brewers came behind the plate and in centerfield, with Ted Simmons and Gorman Thomas crushing the ball. Along with Yount’s production, it’s easy to see where Harvey’s Wallbangers gained their advantages on offense.

1B:

Prince Fielder (159 G, .276/.372/.507; 128 OPS+) vs. Cecil Cooper (155 G, .313/.342/.528; 142 OPS+)

3B:

Bill Hall (128 G, .225/.293/.396; 78 OPS+) vs. Paul Molitor (160 G, .302/.366/.450; 129 OPS+)

LF:

Ryan Braun (151 H, .285/.335/.553; 127 OPS+) vs. Ben Oglivie (159 G, .244/.326/.453; 118 OPS+)

RF:

Corey Hart (157 G, .268/.300/.459; 96 OPS+) vs. Charlie Moore (133 G, .254/.299/.360; 85 OPS+)

At the corners, the 1982 Brewers once again take the advantage with Cecil Cooper and Paul Molitor, and Ben Oglivie is not far behind.

As a historical comparison, it should be interesting to note that Fielder’s OBP and SLG combination are very comparable to Cooper’s (.372 vs. .342, and .507 vs. .528), and their overall OPS is almost exactly the same. However, because of his offensive era, the value of Cecil Cooper’s production is higher than the value of Prince’s production. Coop vs. Prince might be the best concrete example of comparing the effects of historical era.

Here we can see some real weaknesses at the corners for the Brewers, with Bill Hall and Corey Hart finishing the season with slightly-below-average to below-average production at 3B and RF, respectively, two important offensive positions. While the 1982 Brewers did not have a great bat in RF, they certainly had one at 3B with Paul Molitor.

As another unique comparison, Ryan Braun’s bat in 2008 produced at almost exactly the same value above average as Molitor’s in 1982: Braun’s .285/.335/.553 is worth almost exactly the same in 2008 (127 OPS+) as Molitor’s .302/.366/.450 in 1982 (129 OPS+). That should be another good indicator of how the historical eras have changed.

Now that we see that the 1982 Brewers have the thorough advantage in offensive value, here are two brief lists that compare the most valuable producers. I chose VORP (value over replacement player) and PMLV (Positional Marginal Line UP Value) because these stats compare players’ production against average over a period of time (i.e., the number of plate appearances).

I’ve provided links, but here’s the cheat sheet: VORP basically measures the runs produced by a given player compared with an average replacement player; it’s basically the player’s runs produced above average. PMLV takes a measure of the batters’ value in the line up (normal MLV, which has several models), and analyzes the player by his position on the field. Thus, PMLV basically measures the number of runs produced by a given player against an average player at the same position.

Five Most Valuable Players (VORP; 1982, 2008)

Ryan Braun (43.5)                              Robin Yount (103.8)

Prince Fielder (39.7)                           Cecil Cooper (55.8)

J.J. Hardy (38.9)                                 Paul Molitor (54.2)

Mike Cameron (22.3)                          Gorman Thomas (39.2)

Gabe Kapler (14.3)                             Ted Simmons (25.6)

Five Most Valuable Players by Position (PMLV; 1982, 2008)

Ryan Braun (22.5)                              Robin Yount (84.2)

J.J. Hardy (21.8)                                 Cecil Cooper (32.4)

Prince Fielder  (13.8)                          Paul Molitor (27.0)

Gabe Kapler (8.1)                               Gorman Thomas (24.7)

Russell Branyan (6.9)                          Don Money (15.9)

This should provide a valuable snapshot of the advantage of the best 1982 producers.

2. Pitching

If Harvey’s Wallbangers gain the advantage on offense, the 2008 Brewers will need a pitching staff to compete with them, and that is just what they have. While the 2007 Brewers appeared to be a slugging team with average-to-below-average pitching, a pitching staff that did not even reach 80 quality starts, the 2008 Brewers improved greatly on the mound, probably due mostly to Ben Sheets’ highest workload since 2004, a great improvement by Dave Bush, and of course, the midseason acquisition of C.C. Sabathia, along with some excellent mid-season work by Manny Parra and Seth McClung.

Ben Sheets (3.09 ERA, 198.3 IP, 158 K/47 BB; 141 ERA+) vs. Mike Caldwell (3.91 ERA, 258 IP, 75 K/58 BB; 97 ERA+)

Dave Bush (4.18 ERA, 185 IP, 109 K/48 BB; 104 ERA+) vs. Pete Vuckovich (3.34 ERA, 223.7 IP, 105 K/102 BB; 114 ERA+)

The top rotation pitchers, noted here by their IP totals, display more differences between 1982 and 2008. Whereas Harvey’s Wallbangers featured two pitchers with more than 220 IP, the 2008 Crew did not have one pitcher reach 200 IP (Sabathia pitched more than 200 IP in 2008, but not as a Brewer).

The production of the 2008 Brewers’ top rotation, as a whole, is favorable to the ’82 Crew because of the strength of Sheets’ season and his very valuable 3.09 ERA. Sheets produced a more valuable ERA than both Vuck and Caldwell, and Dave Bush’s strength was in his slightly-above-average ERA. While Vuckovich was a more valuable pitcher in 1982 than Dave Bush was in 2008, the comparison is not that far apart, and Bush’s 4.18 ERA  in 2008 is not terribly far behind Vuckovich’s 3.34 ERA in 1982.

Jeff Suppan (4.96 ERA, 177.7 IP, 90 K/67 BB; 88 ERA+) vs. Moose Haas (4.47 ERA, 193.3 IP, 104 K/39 BB; 85 ERA+)

Manny Parra (4.39 ERA, 166 IP, 147 K/75 BB; 99 ERA+) vs. Bob McClure (4.22 ERA, 172.7 IP, 99 K/74 BB; 90 ERA+)

C.C. Sabathia (1.65 ERA, 130.7 IP, 128 K/25 BB; 245 ERA+) vs. Don Sutton (3.29 ERA, 54.7 IP, 36 K/18 BB; 115 ERA+)

In the middle rotation/mid-season acquisition department, the 2008 Brewers once again gain a slim advantage with Suppan and Parra, who ate innings in the middle of the season for the Brewers and produced some quality starts while they were at it. Both of these pitchers compare favorably with Haas and McClure, even if it’s marginal.

Sabathia’s acquisition in July was the sparkplug for the rotation, and his production, coupled with Sheets and Bush, gives the 2008 Brew Crew the true advantage. While Sutton is a legendary midseason acquisition in his own right in Milwaukee sports lore, Sabathia had the chance to establish his legend in Milwaukee with more starts, more IP, and a much more valuable production than the Wallbangers’ midseason acquisition.

Carlos Villanueva (4.07 ERA, 108.3 IP, 93 K/30 BB; 107 ERA+)  vs. Jim Slaton (3.29 ERA; 117.7 IP, 59 K/41 BB; 115 ERA+)

Seth McClung (4.02 ERA, 105.3 IP, 87 K/55 BB; 108 ERA+) vs. Randy Lerch (4.97 ERA, 108.7 IP, 33 K/51 BB; 76 ERA+)

The low rotation / swingman / middle relief finds the 2008 Brewers with an advantage in numbers. Even if Jim Slaton’s production was more valuable than Carlos Villanueva’s work between the rotation and bullpen, the combination of Villanueva and big Seth McClung provide an aggregate low rotation/bullpen swingman advantage over the ’82 Brewers (especially Randy Lerch).

Salomon Torres (3.49 ERA, 80 IP, 51 K/33 BB; 125 ERA+) vs. Rollie Fingers (2.60 ERA, 79.7 IP, 71 K/20 BB; 146 ERA+)

Guillermo Mota (4.11 ERA, 57 IP, 50 K/28 BB; 106 ERA+) vs. Dwight Bernard (3.76 ERA, 79 IP, 45 K/27 BB; 101 ERA+)

Brian Shouse (2.81 ERA, 51.3 IP, 33 K/14 BB; 155 ERA+) vs. Jerry Augustine (5.08 ERA, 62 IP, 22 K/26 BB; 75 ERA+)

In the main relief department, although the ’82 Brewers had the advantage at closer with the Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers, while the ’08 Brewers were working with Salomon Torres as a stopgap, the main short relievers for the 2008 Brewers performed well, and perhaps provided more depth than the 1982 relief corps.

Of course, these bullpen comparisons are almost meaningless, given the fact that the 1982 Brewers had a lot more innings eaten by the rotation, and did not need the various relief positions that the 2008 team featured. Fingers gives the 1982 Brewers an advantage, although the ’82 Crew did not have another short relief combination that produced at the level of Guillermo Mota and Brian Shouse.

Now that we have the idea that the 2008 Brewers have the better pitching staff, if only in the rotation, here are two brief lists that compare the value of these pitchers. I chose VORP again, this time for pitchers, as well as RP (Runs Prevented) because both of these stats compare the value of a pitcher’s production over a period of time (like IP).

VORP for pitchers works on the opposite assumption of the position players’ stat, and is based around how many runs a starting pitcher prevents against an average replacement. RP is the basic raw statement of how many runs a pitcher has prevented against an average replacement, without the additional calculations of VORP:

Five Most Valuable Pitchers (VORP; 1982, 2008):

Ben Sheets (52.4)                                Pete Vuckovich (38.0)                       

C.C. Sabathia (52.2)                           Mike Caldwell (34.1)

Dave Bush (26.5)                                Rollie Fingers (24.0)

Seth McClung (19.9)                          Jim Slaton (21.2)

Carlos Villanueva (15.7)                     Moose Haas (14.3)

Five Most Valuable Pitchers (RP; 1982, 2008)

C.C. Sabathia (36.7)                           Rollie Fingers (16.3)

Ben Sheets (29.0)                                Pete Vuckovich (13.1)

Seth McClung (7.8)                            Jim Slaton (9.2)

Brian Shouse (7.7)                              Don Sutton (5.5)

Yovani Gallardo (7.5)                         Mike Caldwell (5.3)

This should indicate just how much pitching value has changed over time. Notice that the 1982 Brewers do not have one pitcher approach the level of value that Sheets and Sabathia reached, and I personally find it hilarious that Dave Bush in 2008 and Rollie Fingers in 1982 are of comparable value. Never would have guessed that!

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Now, who wins? Well, I’m not exactly sure. But what I wouldn’t give to see the top rotation of the 2008 Brewers take on the 1982 sluggers. What a game that would promise to be! Until such a game happens, we can replay it over and over in our minds, remembering and praising those excellent teams we got to watch – or for some of us, the excellent 2008 team we were lucky to watch and the 1982 team that we are too young to remember.