Here is my 2008 compilation of NL reliever performance, based solely on leads converted. For another example of this type of survey, check out the 2007 NL Reliever Index that I completed in May.

Reading the stat is quite easy. I constructed it like an ERA+ or OPS+ type model, where I took the NL league average leads converted (HLD + SV)/(HLD + SV + BLSV), and then divide every NL reliever's leads converted percentage by that number; I multiply that number by 100 to create the index. (100 = average. So, the 2008 NL Leads Converted % = .82912, meaning that above 100 is above 82.9%, below 100 is below 82.9%).

I will be using this survey to then make some more in-depth corrections beyond the simple point of leads converted (because I understand now, more than in May, that leads converted% is a very small percentage of relief success).

A unique point: the 2008 NL leads converted% was down by almost 3%! If games seemed more back and forth this year, more exciting, or more frustrating, they probably were...

40 or more leads opportunities:

Brad Lidge, Phi: 41 leads converted (41 sv)                          41 opportunities          120.6

Brian Fuentes, Col: 36 leads opportunities (30 sv, 6 hld)       40 opportunities          108.5

Brian Wilson, SF: 41 lead converted (41 sv)                          47 opportunities          105.2

 

Jose Valverde, Hou: 44 leads converted (44 sv)                    51 opportunities          104.1

Kerry Wood, ChC: 34 leads opportunities (34 sv)                 40 opportunities          102.5

Francisco Cordero, Cin: 34 leads converted (34 sv)               40 opportunities          102.5

Salomon Torres, Mil: 33 leads converted (28 sv, 5 hld)         40 opportunities          99.5

Kevin Gregg, Fla: 33 leads converted (29 sv, 4 hld)              42 opportunities          94.8

 

296 leads converted                                                                341 opportunities        104.7

These relievers are the top relievers according to usage and workload pattersn in the NL. They are the closers used most regularly for the entire season, or in some cases a jack of all trades eventually converted to closer (like Salomon Torres). There are no exclusive set up men on this list.

Oddly enough, like  2007, five of the eight closers in this group performed the average level of the group. That is, only three of the eight relievers in this group actually performed better than the overall level that the aggregate produced. Those three top relievers, then, were Brad Lidge, Brian Fuentes, and Brian Wilson.

Below group average closers were Kerry Wood, Francisco Cordero,  and Jose Valverded, and two below average (overall) closers were Kevin Gregg and Salomon Torres.

30-39 leads opportunities:

Carlos Marmol, ChC: 37 leads converted (30 hld, 7 sv)        39 opportunities          114.4  

Trevor Hoffman, SD: 30 leads converted (30 sv)                  34 opportunities          106.4

Brandon Lyon, Ari: 29 leads converted (26 sv, 3 hld)           34 opportunities          102.9

Tony Pena, Ari: 26 leads converted (23 hld, 3 sv)                 31 opportunities          101.2

Luis Ayala, Was/NYM: 28 leads converted (19 hld, 9 sv)     34 opportunities          99.3

 

Kyle McClellan, StL: 31 leads converted (30 hld, 1 sv)        38 opportunities          98.4

Jon Rauch, Was/Ari: 24 leads converted (18 sv, 6 hld)          30 opportunities          96.5

Chad Qualls, Ari: 31 leads converted (22 hld, 9 sv)              39 opportunities          95.9

Billy Wagner, NYM: 27 leads converted (27 sv)                   34 opportunities          95.8

Ryan Franklin, StL: 30 leads converted (17 sv, 13 hld)         38 opportunities          95.2

Jonathan Broxton, LAD: 27 leads converted (13 hld, 14 sv) 35 opportunities          93.0

Heath Bell, SD: 23 leads converted (23 hld)                          30 opportunities          92.5

Manuel Corpas, Col: 23 leads converted (19 hld, 4 sv)          32 opportunities          86.7

 

366 leads converted                                                                448 opportunities        98.5

 20-29 leads opportunities

Matt Lindstrom, Fla: 19 leads converted (14 hld, 5 sv)         20 opportunities          114.6

Taylor Buchholz, Col: 22 leads converted (21 hld, 1 sv)       24 opportunities          110.6

Pedro Feliciano, NYM: 21 leads converted (21 hld)              23 opportunities          110.1

Damaso Marte, Pit: 20 leads converted (15 hld, 5 sv)            22 opportunities          109.6

Ryan Madson, Phi: 18 leads converted (17 hld, 1 sv)            20 opportunities          108.5

Will Ohman, Atl: 24 leads converted (23 hld, 1 sv)               27 opportunities          107.2

Doug Brocail, Hou: 24 leads converted (22 hld, 2 sv)           27 opportunities          107.2

J.C. Romero, Phi: 25 leads opportunities (24 hld, 1 sv)         29 opportunities          103.9

Joe Smith, NYM: 18 leads converted (18 hld)                       21 opportunities          103.3

Brian Shouse, Mil: 17 leads converted (15 hld, 2 sv)             20 opportunities          102.5

John Grabow, Pit: 20 leads converted (16 hld, 4 sv)              24 opportunities          100.5

 

David Weathers, Cin: 19 leads converted (19 hld)                23 opportunities          99.6

Tyler Walker, SF: 19 leads converted (19 hld)                       23 opportunities          99.6

Takashi Saito, LAD: 18 leads converted (18 sv)                    22 opportunities          98.7

Scott Schoeneweis, NYM: 16 leads converted (15 hld, 1 sv)20 opportunities          96.5

Bob Howry, Chc: 16 leads converted (15 hld, 1 sv)              20 opportunities          96.5

Aaron Heilman, NYM: 18 leads converted (15 hld, 3 sv)      23 opportunities          94.4

Chad Durbin, Phi: 18 leads converted (17 hld, 1 sv)             24 opportunities          90.5

Saul Rivera, Was: 17 leads converted (17 hld)                       23 opportunities          89.1

Eric Gagne, Mil: 17 leads converted (7 hld, 10 sv)                24 opportunities          85.4

Matt Capps, Pit: 21 leads converted (21 sv)                           26 opportunities          80.8

Jason Isringhausen, StL: 14 leads converted (12 sv, 2 hld)    21 opportunities          80.4

 

421 leads converted                                                                506 opportunities        100.3

 

I put the 30-39 and 20-29 reliever groups together because I did so for the 2007 survey, and these two groups are usually indicative of the troubles and successes in the middle innings. In 2007, the 30-39 group was better, but that fate reversed in 2008 -- in 2008, for whatever reason, the relievers that found a workload of 20-29 opporunities were better as a whole.

My speculation is that the group of 20-29 relievers were better because they were main set up men, and also, replacements for the failing or injured relievers that were in the 30-39 group (like Billy Wagner).

In these two groups, there is a lot of potential for further analysis, and a lot of interesting tactics can be used to further distinguish between these relievers: dividing relievers by IR/IS, dividing relievers by role, dividing relievers by the main inning in which they enter the game, or dividing relievers by their flexibility for entering games in different innings.

The best of these lists are Carlos Marmol, Matt Lindstrom, and Taylor Buchholz, with Trevor Hoffman, Pedro Feliciano, Damaso Marte, and Ryan Madson not far behind.

10-19 leads opportunities:

LaTroy Hawkins, Hou: 13 leads converted (12 hld, 1 sv)      13 opportunities          120.6

Arthur Rhodes, Fla: 12 leads converted (11 hld, 1 sv)           12 opportunities          120.6

Joe Beimel, LAD: 12 leads converted (12 hld)                      12 opportunities          120.6

Carlos Villanueva, Mil: 12 leads converted (11 hld, 1 sv)      12 opportunities          120.6

Jeff Bennett, Atl: 18 leads converted (15 hld, 3 sv)              19 opportunities          114.3

Ron Villone, StL: 17 leads converted (16 hld, 1 sv)              18 opportunities          113.9

Tom Gordon, Phi: 16 leads converted (14 hld, 2 sv)              17 opportunities          113.5

Wesley Wright, Hou: 13 leads converted (13 hld)                 14 opportunities          111.9

Mike Lincoln, Cin: 10 leads converted (10 hld)                     11 opportunities          109.7

Renyel Pinto, Fla: 17 leads converted (17 hld)                      19 opportunities          107.9

Randy Flores, StL: 15 leads converted (14 hld, 1 sv)                        17 opportunities          106.4

Russ Springer, StL: 15 leads converted (15 hld)                    17 opportunities          106.4

Mike Gonzalez, Atl: 14 leads converted (14 sv)                    16 opportunities          105.5

Hong-Chih Kuo, LAD:  12 leads converted (12 hld)             14 opportunities          103.4

Geoff Geary, Hou: 12 leads converted (12 hld)                     14 opportunities          103.4

 

Jared Burton, Cin: 11 leads converted (11 hld)                      13 opportunities          102.1

Chris Sampson, Hou: 11 leads converted (11 hld)                 13 opportunities          102.1

Mike Adams, SD: 10 leads converted (10 hld)                      12 opportunities          100.5

Guillermo Mota, Mil: 12 leads converted (11 hld, 1 sv)         15 opportunities          96.5

Blaine Boyer, Atl: 15 leads converted (14 hld, 1 sv)             19 opportunities          95.2

Tyler Yates, Pit: 15 leads converted (14 hld, 1 sv)                 19 opportunities          95.2

Jack Taschner, SF: 14 leads converted (14 hld)                     18 opportunities          93.8

Chris Perez, StL: 13 leads converted (7 sv, 6 hld)                 17 opportunities          92.2

Joe Nelson, Fla: 12 leads converted (11 hld, 1 sv)                 16 opportunities          90.5

Joel Hanrahan, Was: 12 leads converted (9 sv, 3 hld)            16 opportunities          90.5

David Riske, Mil: 13 leads converted (11 hld, 2 sv)              18 opportunities          87.1

Cla Meredith, SD: 11 leads converted (11 hld)                      17 opportunities          78.0

 

357 leads converted                                                                418 opportunities        103.0

 

This list might be the most interesting, if only because there are so many reasons these relievers have received less of a leads opportunity workload. Some, like David Riske and Mike Gonzalez, were injured. Others, like Chris Sampson and Carlos Villanueva, jumped between rotation and bullpen. Others simply suffered from ineffectiveness, while others still performed in incredibly specialized roles (see Arthur Rhodes, Joe Beimel, and Wesley Wright, among others).

This group of relievers is interesting because in 2007, some of the top relievers in the 10-19 group saw their success translate to a larger workload. This occurred with Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson, Doug Brocail, Will Ohman, Damaso Marte, and Joe Smith, with Carlos Villanueva and Joe Beimel producing successfully in a similar role for a consecutive season.

I find this development to be promising, because it leads me to the hypothesis that workload does not necessarily correlate to success, and vice versa. I.e., we should not write-off replacement relievers simply because they only saw 10-19 leads opportunities, or were used with a relatively light workload in the previous season.

This is especially important given the number of top workload relievers from 2007 that regressed, were injured, or hardly performed whatsoever: Kevin Gregg, Takashi Saito, Heath Bell, Jon Rauch, Chad Cordero, Billy Wagner, Derrick Turnbow, Jason Isringhausen, Manuel Corpas, Matt Capps, Tony Pena, Bob Howry, Brad Hennessey, and Rafael Soriano, just to name a few. Others, like Francisco Cordero, Brandon Lyon, and Brian Shouse also regressed, but their regression was masked by the overall NL regression, and their overall scores look good.

I find this to be incredibly promising for designing, advocating, and building a bullpen with players that have been developed internally, maybe eased into a high leverage role overtime, and exhibited success in that role (my best examples here are Brian Wilson and Carlos Marmol, and my target for the future is Carlos Villanueva)....

...more and more I am convinced that the high priced arms should be avoided, and that there are more innovative and business-savy ways to build a bullpen.