Edit: Here is the article to which this post is a companion.

Lately I have been immersed in the question of our rotation in 2009, because I do not thing we are in bad shape whatsoever, but I am at a loss to explain why.

 Part of my argument I am developing depends upon breaking down the #1, #2, #3, #4, #5 pitching rotation scheme. The best way I knew how to do that at first is to rank the starting pitchers in the NL with 100+ IP in their requisite groups, in order to compare them.

Here's what I did:

(1) I sorted pitchers at BP according to "runs prevented," a raw stat that is component VORP for pitchers, determining the value of pitchers over a certain frame of time (IP) based around the extent to which said pitcher prevents runs against the league average. The second sorting criteria was "100 IP," the third, "NL."

(2) I simply filled in GS, G, IP, and R totals. Those should be easy and intuitive to read. I simply used those stats to compile group averages, and I grouped each SP level at 16, under the hypothetical argument that every rotation would have an even distribution of #1, #2, #3, #4, and #5 starters. Obviously that is false, but I was having trouble thinking of a good arbitrary cut off, and did not want to over-load the survey with VORP, runs revented, or some statistical cut off. So I went general and broad.

Obviously we will find there to be gray area and overlapping production in some cases, but according to this method, there are fairly rigid results...

I should have more on this tomorrow....

BTW, if you're uninterested in the theoretical purpose of this work, that's perfectly fine. This should also serve as a good reference for judging teams and free agents going into 2009.

 ENJOY!

1. Lincecum, SF (72.5 VORP): 34 G, 33 GS,            227 IP, 72 R

2. Santana, NYM (73.4 VORP): 34 GS,                    234.3 IP, 74 R

3. Sabathia, Mil (52.2 VORP): 17 GS,                       130.7 IP, 31 R

4. Dempster, ChC (57.5 VORP): 33 GS,                   206.7 IP, 75 R

5. Peavy, SD (51.5 VORP): 27 GS,                           173.7 IP, 57 R

6. Hamels, Phi (56.3 VORP): 33 GS,                         227.3 IP, 89 R

7. Sheets, Mil (52.4 VORP): 31 GS,                          198.3 IP, 74 R

8. Billingsley, LAD (51.6 VORP): 35 G, 32 GS,       200.7 IP, 76 R

9. Haren, Ari (53.2 VORP): 33 GS,                           216 IP, 86 R

10. Lowe, LAD (49.7 VORP): 34 GS,                       211 IP, 84 R

11. Webb, Ari (50.8 VORP): 34 GS,                          226.7 IP, 95 R

12. Volquez, Cin (44.3 VORP): 33 G, 32 GS,           196 IP, 82 R

13. Hudson, Atl (37.0 VORP): 23 G, 22 GS,            142 IP, 53 R

14. Nolasco, Fla (44.7 VORP): 34 G, 32 GS,            212.3 IP, 88 R

15. Oswalt, Hou (44.1 VORP): 32 GS,                      208.7 IP, 89 R

16. Maholm, Pit (42.7 VORP): 31 GS,                       206.3 IP, 89 R

 

First Starters: 498 G, 490 GS                                     3217.7 IP, 1214 R

First starters: 31.1 G, 3.40 runs average, 6.46 IP/G (37.0 to 73.4 VORP range)

 

17. Wainwright, StL (33.2 VORP): 20 GS,               132 IP, 51 R

18. Cain, SF (43.2 VORP): 34 GS,                            217.7 IP, 95 R

19. Moyer, Phi (40.3 VORP): 33 GS,                         196.3 IP, 85 R

20. Pelfrey, NYM (39.6 VORP): 32 GS,                   200.7 IP, 86 R

21. Lohse, StL (39.2 VORP): 33 GS,                         200 IP, 88 R

22. Wellemeyer, StL (37.3 VORP): 32 GS,               191.7 IP, 84 R

23. Zambrano, ChC (35.7 VORP): 30 GS,                 188.7 IP, 85 R

24. Cook, Col (36.5 VORP): 32 GS,                          211.3 IP, 102 R

25. Lilly, ChC (35.3 VORP): 34 GS,                                     204.7 IP, 96 R

26. Jurrjens, Atl (33.0 VORP): 31 GS,                       188.3 IP, 87 R

27. Kuroda, LAD (31.2 VORP): 31 GS,                    183.3 IP, 85 R

28. Jimenez, Col (32.7 VORP): 34 GS,                      198.7 IP, 97 R

29. Campillo, Atl (25.8 VORP): 39 G, 25 GS,           158.7 IP, 74 R

30. W. Rodroguez, Hou (22.4 VORP): 25 GS,          137.3 IP, 65 R

31. Young, SD (17.6 VORP): 18 GS,                        102.3 IP, 46 R

32. R. Johnson, Ari (27.2 VORP): 30 GS,                 184 IP, 92 R

 

Second Starters: 488 G, 474 GS                                 2895.7 IP, 1318 R

Second starters: 30.5 G, 4.10 runs average, 5.93 IP/G (17.6 to 43.2 VORP)

 

33. Bush, Mil (26.5 VORP): 31 G, 29 GS,                 185 IP, 92 R

34. Kershaw, LAD (17.4 VORP): 22 G, 21 GS,        107.7 IP, 51 R

35. Lannan, Was (25.1 VORP): 31 GS,                     182 IP, 89 R

36. Looper, StL (25.7 VORP): 33 GS,                       199 IP, 101 R

37. Maine, NYM (18.6 VORP): 25 GS,                     140 IP, 70 R

38. D. Davis, Ari (19.3 VORP): 26 GS,                     146 IP, 76 R

39. Marquis, ChC (20.8 VORP): 29 G, 28 GS,          167 IP, 87 R

40. Moehler, Hou (16.8 VORP): 31 G, 26 GS,          150 IP, 79 R

41. Ol. Perez, NYM (21.0 VORP): 34 GS,                194 IP, 100 R

42. Maddux, SD (15.0 VORP): 26 GS,                     153.3 IP, 80 R

43. Myers, Phi (19.3 VORP): 30 GS,                         190 IP, 103 R

44. Parra, Mil (15.0 VORP): 32 G, 29 GS,                 166 IP, 91 R

45. Baek, SD (7.7 VORP): 22 G, 20 GS,                   111 IP, 60 R

46. Olsen, Fla (18.0 VORP): 33 GS,                          201.7 IP, 106 R

47. de la Rosa, Col (9.2 VORP): 28 G, 23 GS,          130 IP, 77 R

48. Harang, Cin (15.5 VORP): 30 G, 29 GS,                         184.3 IP, 104 R

 

Third Starters: 463 G, 433 GS                                    2607 IP, 1366 R

Third starters: 28.9 G, 4.72 runs average, 5.63 IP/G (7.7 to 26.5 VORP range)

 

49. Francis, Col (10.6 VORP): 24 GS,                       143.7 IP, 84 R

50. Od. Perez, Was (12.0 VORP): 30 GS,                 159.7 IP, 87 R

51. J. Sanchez, SF (11.1 VORP): 29 GS,                   158 IP, 90 R

52. Cueto, Cin (11.5 VORP): 31 GS,                                     174 IP, 101 R

53. Wolf, SD (4.7 VORP): 21 GS,                             119.7 IP, 69 R

54. Arroyo, Cin (13.1 VORP): 34 GS,                       200 IP, 116 R

55. Pineiro, StL (5.7 VORP): 26 G, 25 GS,               148.7 IP, 89 R

56. Eaton. Phi (-1.9 VORP): 21 6, 19 GS,                 107 IP, 71 R

57. Duke, Pit (7.4 VORP): 31 GS,                             185 IP, 111 R

58. P. Martinez, NYM (-2.0 VORP): 20 GS,                         109 IP, 70 R

59. Suppan, Mil (3.6 VORP): 31 GS,                         177 IP, 110 R

60. Owings, Ari (-5.8 VORP): 22 G, 18 GS,                         104.7 IP, 73 R

61. Redding, Was (3.1 VORP): 33 GS,                     182 IP, 110 R

62. Reyes, Atl (-5.5 VORP); 23 G, 22 GS,                113 IP, 77 R

63. Hendrickson, Fla (-4.3 VORP): 36 G, 19 GS,      133.7 IP, 87 R

64. Kendrick, Phi (-2.9 VORP): 31 G, 30 GS,           155.7 IP, 103 R

 

Fourth Starters: 465 G, 440 GS                                  2370.7 IP, 1448 R

Fourth starters: 29.1 G, 5.50 runs average, 5.10 IP/G (-5.8 to 13.1 VORP range)

 

65. McClung, Mil (19.9 VORP): 37 G, 12 GS,          105.3 IP, 47 R

66. Villanueva, Mil (15.7 VORP): 47 G, 9 GS,          108.3 IP, 53 R

67. Sampson, Hou (14.6 VORP): 54 G, 11 GS,         117.3 IP, 60 R

68. Snell, Pit (-1.9 VORP): 31 GS,                             164.3 IP, 107 R

69. Zito, SF (-0.9 VORP): 32 GS,                              180 IP, 115 R

70. Bergmann, Was (-6.3 VORP): 30 G, 22 GS,        139.7 IP, 94 R

71. Correia, SF (-9.9 VORP): 25 G, 19 GS,               110 IP, 80 R

72. Gorzelanny, Pit (-11.4 VORP): 21 GS,                105.3 IP, 79 R

73. A. Miller, Fla (-12.4 VORP): 29 G, 20 GS,          107.3 IP, 78 R

74. Backe, Hou (-7.9 VORP): 31 GS,                        166.7 IP, 114 R

 

Fifth starters/swingmen: 337 G, 208 GS                    1304.3 IP, 827 R

Fifth starters/swingmen: 33.7 G, 5.71 runs average, 3.87 IP/G (-12.4 to 19.9 VORP range)