While its usefulness as an offensive measurement might be questionable, BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play, (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF), as listed on BR. I don't agree with some of the ways in which it is calculated, but that's another issue) provides a useful tool for analyzing the rate at which a pitchers' balls in play drop for htis, or are converted into outs. The other aspect of this calculation, Defensive Efficiency (listed as ((H + ROE - HR) / (PA - BB - SO - HBP - HR))  on BP, although if you're in a rush Def.Eff. can be approximated by calculating 1-BABIP), measures the defensive aspect of BABIP more extensively, and is a rate at which the balls put into play are converted into outs by a defense.

Both of these measurements, taken for individual pitchers and teams alike, can implicate certain things:

(1) Is the pitcher pitching in front of a good defense? Now, I understand that there is a lot of resistance to defensive stats based on individual aspects of defense, or the individual defensive stats taken as an aggregate for the team, but all I mean to use Def.Eff for here is to simply provide one approximation of whether or not the individual pitchers on the Brewers had good defense behind them, or bad defense -- and it does vary throughout the team.

(2) Is the pitcher lucky? I believe this is a logical conclusion of (1). If one starting pitcher receives better-than-average defensive support from the team, and another starting pitcher receives less-than-average defensive support from the team, we can say that the first pitcher is indeed lucky, for an external circumstance not completely within his control is helping to contribute to his success. Now, we can certainly say that a pitcher can help his defense by working quickly, throwing strikes, etc., but I'm not exactly certain there's a proven correlation between working fast, throwing strikes -- keeping the defense on its toes -- and better defensive support.

So, I compiled a very simple survey: I took the Brewers' team pitching BABIP and the Brewers' team Defensive Efficiency, and compared it to the individual rates and the individual support given to individual pitchers.

Team BABIP: .289

Bush: .238

McClung: .284

Gallardo: .297

Sheets: .299

Sabathia: .301

Villanueva: .302

Suppan: .306

Parra: .333

 

Team Defensive Effieicncy: .698

Bush: .744

McClung: .710

Sheets: .708

Sabathia: .700

Gallardo: .697

Suppan: .691

Villanueva: .688

Parra: .647

 

Not taking anything away from Dave Bush, or giving any extra sympathy to Parra, but the "luck spectrum" of the 2008 Brewers' staff found Bush at the apex, and Parra in a much more disadvantaged position.

The other pitchers don't really have terribly alarming defensive support or a terribly alarming rate of batted balls dropping for hits. Maybe McClung is the only other pitcher we might worry about having better-than-average defensive support in a manner that distorted his performance....but more on that below.

So, what does this tell us? I took our pitchers currently (and likely) under contract for 2009, and put together their "luck factors" for 2008, and listed them against their H/9 IP. I have provided career H/9 IP, as well as the luck factors and H/9 IP for three other seasons (2005-2007). I'm not sure any of this proves anything, I just found it really, really interesting to see how much H/9 IP can fluctuate from year to year, and how those increases and decreases can be tied to performance, and especially hits allowed.

You can read this chart the following way:

Year (Team, ERA+, H/9 IP): Ind. BABIP / Team BABIP; Ind. Def.Eff./Team Def.Eff

And here it is: our 2009 Brewers' "luck factors":

Bush’s Luck Context:  (9.03 H/9 IP career)

2008 (Mil; 104 ERA+; 7.93 H/9 IP): .238/.289 Team; .744/.698 Team

2007 (Mil; 88 ERA+; 10.48 H/9 IP): .323/.312 Team; .676/.677 Team

2006 (Mil; 103 ERA+; 8.61 H/9 IP): .286/.302 Team; .711/.687 Team

2005 (Tor; 99 ERA+; 9.38 H/9 IP): .280/.288 Team; .718/.701 Team

 

Suppan’s Luck Context: (9.92 H/9 IP career)

2008 (Mil; 87 ERA+, 10.49 H/9 IP): .306/.289 Team; .691/.698 Team

2007 (Mil; 97 ERA+; 10.58 H/9 IP): .324/.312 Team; .671/.677 Team

2006 (StL; 108 ERA+, 9.81 H/9 IP): .298/.294 Team; .701/.697 Team

2005 (StL; 119 ERA+, 9.54 H.9 IP): .296/.286 Team; .702/.704 Team

 

McClung’s Luck Context: (8.87 H/9 IP career)

2008 (Mil; 108 ERA+; 7.95 H/9 IP): .284/.289 Team; .710/.698 Team

2007 (Mil; 120 ERA+; 8.25 H/9 IP): .324/.312 Team; .667/.677 Team

2006 (TB; 73 ERA+; 10.49 H/9 IP): .308/.315 Team;  .684/.672 Team

2005 (TB; 66 ERA+; 8.73 H/9 IP): .270/.305 Team; .726/.684 Team

 

Parra’s Luck Context: (9.64 H/9 IP)

2008 (Mil; 99 ERA+; 9.81 H/9 IP): .333/.289 Team; .647/.698 Team

2007 (Mil; 119 ERA+; 8.56 H.9 IP): .324/312 Team; .662/.677 Team

 

Villanueva’s Luck Context (8.34 H/9 IP)

2008 (Mil; 107 ERA+; 9.31 H/9 IP): .302/.289 Team; .688/.698 Team

2007 (Mil; 114 ERA+; 7.95 H/9 IP): .271/.312 Team; .728/.677 Team

 

Gallardo’s Luck Context: (8.38 H/9 IP)

2008 (Mil; 231 ERA+; 8.40 H/9 IP): .297/.289 Team; .697/.698 Team

2007 (Mil; 122 ERA+; 8.25 H/9 IP): .303/.312 Team; .695/.677 Team

 

Here are some really interesting things this chart exposes:

(1) From 2007-2008 the defense converted balls-in-play into outs more frequently behind Suppan in 2008, but yet Suppan's performance still dropped (97 ERA+ to 87 ERA+).That's because Suppan allowed one of his worst career HR totals in 2008, and the defense cannot convert balls in the bleachers into outs....Coupled with his rather alarming increase in walks, compared with any number of his previous seasons (just eyeballing, this was probably his worst walk rate since approx. 1996 or 2000). Of course, walks will also not be counted in defensive efficiency, because a walk cannot be converted into an out by the defense.

(2) Dave Bush is one lucky,.,well, you know. In almost the same number of IP as 2007, in 2008 he allowed almost the same number of walks, almost the same number of HR, but of course, his hits total dropped by 54! This is even more remarkable considering that he struck out 30 fewer batters, meaning that more balls were put in play in front of the defense. Now, I am not terribly worried about what this does for Bush's 2009 outlook, as he is showing other signs, on his own, of putting it together with his approach, but damn! He was L-U-C-K-Y in 2008! The one thing I'd look for to offset those factors in 2009 is not simply to watch the hits column, but keep an eye on his HR column and his K/BB. If he can allow slightly fewer HR, and increase that K total again, while keeping his walk total low, he won't get completely slaughtered by his tumble back to average defensive support.

(3) Parra was one poor, unlucky case in 2008. That defensive support is so low, you have to wonder if the Brewers actually played with 8 guys behind our little lefty. Now, other than the fact that every now and then you hear a player talk about how much they love fielding for Sheets because he fires the ball back in there so quickly and never walks anyone, I don't truly believe we have any reason to think that the defense is particularly opposed to working behind Parra, a slow worker. And it's not all Parra's fault, but frankly, the kid should be walking fewer, and he also showed a penchant for quickly starting an inning, and then coming apart once one guy reached base. If Parra throws more strikes, increases that K/BB, he will make fewer problems for himself when that defense does fail him -- instead of that error granting a run and the third baserunner of the inning with two outs (probably following two walks), that error will go relatively unnoticed. But when you're walking guys and not throwing strikes, those errors are huge.

With these factors corrected in 2009, and new luck factors emerging, I foresee reason to believe that Parra's overall performance will improve with better support, and we might see Bush's performance drop slightly. Suppan is difficult to project because so much of his problems in 2008 were his own doing, and cannot be placed on the defense.

But one thing is certain: a portion of the fate of the 2009 rotation will hinge upon the defensive support....and for that, we can only wait to see how the cards fall next year.