Problem:
Rickie Weeks is an average second baseman regarding the double play.
Now, the reason that I suggest this is a problem is that Brewers fans will almost intuitively tell you, if you ask them, that Rickie Weeks is a poor defender who cannot turn the double play.
But, looking at all of the MLB second basemen that accumulated at least 600 fielding innings at second, Weeks' 84 double plays turned is exactly where he should be: the average MLB 2B with at least 200 fielding innings turned 0.077805 double plays per fielding inning. At 1056 fielding innings, Weeks should have turned approximately 82 double plays -- he turned 84.
This is not simply a fact that exists with the busiest MLB 2B....looking at every MLB 2B who accumulated at least 100 innings in the field at that position, Weeks' average double play rate should have yielded approximately 81 double plays -- he turned 84.
What accounts for this phenomenon? Certainly we trust our eyes to report with accuracy that Weeks cannot turn the double play, and yet there he is -- as perfectly average as average can get, and even a bit better.
I've been reading The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, which has enlightened me on some fielding issues and fielding stats problems. I strongly recommend the book, by the way -- James' is genius is not as much his innovation, creativity, and extensive factual rigor as much as it is sheer comedy and story telling. For a really thick book, this one has a ton of rhythm, and the history reads as a series of fragmented stories, articles, and facts, making it a really informative and easy page turner.
Anyone, drawing from some of James' ideas, here is what I think causes Weeks' average double play total, despite some of his defensive issues:
(1) Opportunities: Throughout his book, James notes that fielding stats can often falsely portray defenders on poor teams as strong fielders simply because some defenders on poor teams have more double play opportunities, because the pitching staff puts more men on base....
This might not be terribly plausible in the Brewers' case: the 3.26 BB/9 IP, while certainly not awful, put more men on first base more frequently than several other teams; however, a 3.26 BB/'9 IP is well within the 2008 NL average of 3.44 BB/9 IP. So, the Brewers' pitchers were not putting more men on first more regularly than many other NL teams.
As for WHIP, the Brewers' 1.33 WHIP is well within the NL league average of 1.39.
Even in the case of extra HBP or errors, the extra opportunities for GIDP would not provide Weeks with that much material with which to botch GIDP and manage to post an average double play rate.
(2) Range: stated simply, Rickie Weeks' range is above league average, both as a raw factor and as a 9 inning measure. Are those precious few extra balls that Weeks can even get to allowing him more opportunities to make a poor throw?
Weeks, in this case, would have the unique combination of fine range and poor throwing -- which I believe could account for the phenomena of botching some double plays while maintaining an average number of double plays as well.
J.J. Hardy's range is also average-to-above average. That might provide Weeks more double play opportunities, as well.
(3) J.J. Hardy turned a slightly below average number of double plays.
Looking at the MLB SS that posted above 600 innings at shortstop, Hardy slightly underperforms his average -- the MLB average for the busiest MLB shortstops (26 of them with 600 innings or more) suggests that Hardy should have turned approximately 89 double plays in 1268.3 innings...
...which leads me to ask: is Weeks the center of the double play combination? Is he the focal point? I don't think it is crazy to suggest that the average second baseman turns slightly more double plays per defensive inning than the average shortstop -- could that help to explain why Weeks turned an average number of double plays?
Could it be that the plays that Weeks botched, the poor double play throws, were simply the result of extra opportunities afforded by his middle infield partner? Moreover, what would even be a reasonable number of botched double plays for Weeks? The average fan will have it that Weeks botched a double play in approximately 162 games....but how many did Weeks actually cost the Brewers
Could it be that Weeks' shortcomings actually exhibit an average second baseman experiencing growing pains entering the next level of production?
How can we explain that Weeks is an "awful" defender -- as many fans say -- when his range is above average, and his double plays turned are average? His fielding percentage might indicate that he is below average, which is fine, but that lower fielding percentage could also be explained partially by Weeks' ability to get to balls in the field.
But who knows? For the record, I do not think Weeks is an awful defender. I think he is an average defender that has the pieces to become an above-average defender, just like he is an average offensive player that has the pieces to become an above-average hitter.
Anyhow, it's just a unique fact...next time you're at the bar debating with your friends, let them know that Weeks was a perfectly average MLB second baseman at turning the double play....