Rotation III: What is C.C. Sabathia worth? (Part One)

Rotation Projections (including Sabathia):

Here are the basic SP projection ranges, including 2009 OD age:

Sabathia (28): 254 GS, 1659.3 IP, 1541 H, 731 R, 1393 K/523 BB; 150 quality starts; 3.96 runs average, 6.53 IP/GS

 

Raw average: 34 GS, 222 IP, 206 H, 98 R, 186 K/70 BB; 20 quality starts; 3.97 runs average, 6.53 IP/GS

 

10% increase: 34 GS, 244 IP, 185 H, 88 R, 215 K/63 BB; 22 quality starts; 3.25 runs average, 7.18 IP/GS

(2006-2008): 97 G, 686.7 IP, 262 R; 3.43 runs average, 7.08 IP/G

 

10% decrease: 34 GS, 200 IP, 227 H, 108 R, 168 K/77 BB; 18 quality starts; 4.86 runs average, 5.88 IP/GS

 

**

 

Dave Bush (29): 139 G, 132 GS, 815.3 IP, 818 H, 433 R, 548 K/184 BB; 66 quality starts; 4.78 runs average, 5.87 IP/G

 

Raw average: 34 G, 32 GS, 199.7 IP, 200 H, 106 R, 134 K/45 BB; 16 quality starts; 4.78 runs average, 5.87 IP/G

 

10% increase: 34 G, 32 GS, 219.7 IP, 180 H, 95 R, 147 K/41 BB; 18 quality starts; 3.89 runs average, 6.46 IP/G

 

10% decrease: 34 G, 32 GS, 179.7 IP, 220 H, 117 R, 121 K/49 BB; 14 quality starts; 5.86 runs average, 5.29 IP/G

 

**

 

Suppan (34): 382 G, 366 GS, 2249 IP, 2479 H, 1265 R, 1252 K/747 BB; 170 quality starts; 5.06 runs average, 5.89 IP/G

 

Raw average: 34 G, 33 GS, 200 IP, 220 H, 112 R, 111 K/66 BB; 15 quality starts; 5.04 runs average, 5.89 IP/G

 

10% increase: 34 G, 33 GS, 220 IP, 200 H, 101 R, 122 K/60 BB; 17 quality starts; 4.13 runs average, 6.47 IP/G

 

10% decrease: 34 G, 33 GS, 180 IP, 240 H, 123 R, 101 K/72 BB; 14 quality starts; 6.15 runs average, 5.29 IP/G

 

**

 

Parra (26): 41 G, 31 GS, 192.3 IP, 206 H, 104 R, 173 K/87 BB; 11 quality starts; 4.87 runs average, 4.69 IP/G

 

Raw Average: 34 G, 26 GS, 159.7 IP, 171 H, 86 R, 144 K/72 BB; 9 quality starts; 4.87 runs average, 4.69 IP/G

 

20% increase: 34 G, 26 GS, 190.7 IP, 164 H, 83 R, 205 K/68 BB; 11 quality starts; 3.92 runs average, 5.61 IP/G

 

10% decrease: 34 G, 26 GS, 144.3 IP, 184 H, 85 R, 117 K/71 BB; 8 quality starts; 5.30 runs average, 4.25 IP/G

 

**

 

Gallardo (23): 24 G, 21 GS, 134.3 IP, 125 H, 53 R, 121 K/45 BB; 15 quality starts; 3.55 runs average, 5.60 IP/G

 

Raw Average: 34 G, 30 GS, 190.3 IP, 177 H, 75 R, 171 K/64 BB; 21 quality starts; 3.55 runs average, 5.60 IP/G

 

10% increase: 34 G, 30 GS, 209.3 IP, 176 H, 74 R, 206 K/63 BB; 23 quality starts; 3.18 runs average, 6.16 IP/G

 

10% decrease: 34 G, 30 GS, 171.3 IP, 175 H, 73 R, 138 K/64 BB; 19 quality starts; 3.84 runs average, 5.04 IP/G

**

 

McClung (28): 136 G, 49 GS, 368.3 IP, 363 H, 241 R, 274 K/215 BB; 19 quality starts; 5.89 runs average, 2.71 IP/G

 

Raw average: 27 G, 10 GS, 73 IP, 72 H, 48 R, 54 K/43 BB; 4 quality starts; 5.92 runs average, 2.71 IP/G

 

10% increase: 27 G, 10 GS, 80 IP, 65 H, 43 R, 59 K/39 BB; 4 quality starts; 4.84 runs average, 2.96 IP/G

 

20% increase: 27 G, 10 GS, 87 IP, 58 H, 38 R, 64 K/35 BB; 5 quality starts; 3.93 runs average, 3.22 IP/G

 

**

Carlos Villanueva (25): 116 G, 21 GS, 276.3 IP, 256 H, 127 R, 231 K/94 BB; 9 quality starts; 4.14 runs average, 2.38 IP/G

 

Raw average: 39 G, 7 GS, 93 IP, 86 H, 43 R, 78 K/32 BB; 3 quality starts; 4.16 runs average, 2.38 IP/G

 

10% increase: 39 G, 7 GS, 102 IP, 77 H, 39 R, 86 K/29 BB; 3 quality starts; 3.44 runs average, 2.62 IP/G

 

10% decrease: 39 G, 7 GS, 84 IP, 95 H, 47 R, 69 K/35 BB; 3 quality starts; 5.04 runs average, 2.15 IP/G

 

For those worried about accurately accounting for Sabathia's recent success, note that his 2006-2008 improvements are easily accounted for with a 10% improvement from his career average.

 

Comments

 

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - The Junkball Blues said:

Rotation II: Luck Factors Rotation I: Gallardo and Parra Rotation averages 1-5 Rotation III (part one

October 27, 2008 11:45 PM

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About This Blog

I'm Nicholas Zettel, and I've got the Junkball Blues. All I need for a cure is a sinkerball pitcher here, a curveball specialist there, and a bunch of guys with fastballs that top out in the high-80s. And those days when the knuckleball wasn't a speciality pitch, and pitchers simply kept one in their back pocket? That's what I'm talking about!

I write for Sportsbubbler.com, and this is the research I compile along the way. I love power-speed combo players, garbage time relievers, and the walking medicine cabinets that played baseball in the 1960s and 1970s, and got away with it.

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