Rotation II: Luck Factors

Rotation I: Gallardo and Parra

Rotation averages 1-5

Rotation III (part one): Individual projections

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There are all sorts of comments, analyses, opinions, and other words flying around about Sabathia.

In terms of dollar signs, we can guess that Sabathia is probably worth between $20 and $25 million on the free agency market. We could calculate the increases throughout the past 4-5 free agency markets, or even the last two, and figure out where a Sabathia offer stands (and add in the Santana extension, which was not a free agency contract but will most definitely factor into the Sabathia signing).

But what about runs?

It's very difficult to project the 2009 rotation, for several reasons:

(1) We don't know the future

(2) Sheets and Sabathia so thoroughly over-performed 2008 averages that the 2009 rotation is most likely to regress

(3) The 2008 bullpen was so good that the 2009 bullpen is probably likely to regress

Given the back-and-forth nature of how bullpens work, and the fact that precious little bullpen performances remain stable from year to year, the best way to project the 2009 bullpen is to provide a range of options based upon the past. Assuming that Melvin builds the 2009 bullpen with roughly the same assumptions and increasing resources with which he progressively built the 2003-2008 bullpens, we can at least provide a guess to a likely range that Melvin's bullpens occupy:

2008 Bullpen: 472.3 IP, 443 H, 224 R, 385 K/214 BB; 4.27 runs average

2007 Bullpen: 511.3 IP, 493 H, 276 R, 477 K/200 BB; 4.86 runs average

2006 Bullpen: 463 IP, 459 H, 290 R, 380 K/218 BB; 5.64 runs average

2005 Bullpen: 446.3 IP, 420 H, 209 R, 377 K/223 BB; 4.21 runs average

2004 Bullpen: 521 IP, 521 H, 277 R, 358 K/165 BB; 4.79 runs average

2003 Bullpen: 522 IP, 529 H, 260 R, 414 K/205 BB; 4.48 runs average

 

Total:               2936 IP, 2865 H, 1536 R, 2391 K/1225 BB; 4.71 runs average

 

10% increase: 489.3 IP, 429 H, 230 R, 438 K/184 BB; 4.23 runs average

5% increase:    489.3 IP, 453 H, 243 R, 418 K/194 BB; 4.47 runs average

Raw average:  489.3 IP, 477 H, 256 R, 398 K/204 BB; 4.71 runs average

5% decrease:   489.3 IP, 501 H, 269 R, 378 K/214 BB; 4.95 runs average

10% decrease: 489.3 IP, 525 H, 282 R, 358 K/224 BB; 5.19 runs average

 

With a simple range of averages provided, we can see that Melvin's 2008 bullpen is pretty much as good as it gets for his history of bullpen building, at least in terms of runs allowed.

Of course, runs distribution is crucial for bullpen work, and in that department, the Brewers' bullpen in 2008 was in fact worse than the 2007 bullpen, for instance, at converting leads.

There are all sorts of stats we could work with that would help us to figure out how runs are distributed throughout the bullpen, but that is outside of the scope of this first step of projections, which I would simply like to base around runs allowed.

(Given the fact that I cannot predict the future, I am perfectly happy providing a flawed, basic projection at first, because at least then we will be able to poke it with sticks, ask questions, and figure out where to go from there....)

Now, there are plenty of rotation questions, with or without the signing of Sabathia:

(a) If Sabathia is likely to incur an injury due to his workload, when is that injury likely to occur?

(b) How much did Dave Bush's luck affect his 2008 campaign, and how much will average defensive luck hurt his 2009 campaign?

(c) How much did Parra's luck hurt his 2008 campaign, and how much will average defense help his 2009 campaign?

(d) How much did Suppan's injury hurt his 2008 campaign?

(e) Is Suppan's regression the beginning of a downward career trend?

(f) How will Gallardo's stamina respond to a regular IP workload?

(g) How likely is McClung to succeed in a broader starting role (or a more important bullpen role)?

(h) Was Villanueva's starting work in 2008 a fluke?

(j) What is the likelihood of Sabathia's three-year upward trend to continue?

...and so on...

There are ways in which we could answer each of these questions, but I want to put the basic cart before the horse, again, just to see what we're looking at.

***

So, here's what I did:

-I calculated the raw career averages for Sabathia, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallado, McClung, and Villanueva

-I issued projection ranges based on the raw average, a 10% increase, and a 10% decrease. In the case of Parra and Gallardo, given that their performances are so difficult to project due to all sorts of questions about youth and workload, I over-estimated Parra's chances of improving, and I over-estimated Gallardo's changes of regressing. I did that for the simple fact that we have no real career norm for either of these players, and therefore I decided to be a bit more cautious with Gallardo, and a bit more optimistic with Parra.

You can find more reasoning about that, here.

-I did not issue regressions for McClung simply because his poor performance in Tampa weighs down his career average to a large extent.

***

Then, I went ahead and calculated some projections, using various combinations of these rotations, with and without Sabathia, and I added on various combinations of bullpen performance.....

***

Here is my first set of projection ranges...

Projection #1: Averages + Average Bullpen (4.71 runs average)

Rotation One: Sabathia, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva: 726 R

1064.7 IP, 520 R; 84 quality starts

393.3 IP, 206 R

Rotation Two: Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, McClung, Villanueva: 752 R

1074 IP, 551 R; 79 quality starts

384 IP, 201 R

Projection #2: Sabathia Increase/Staff Decreases + Average Bullpen (4.71 runs average) 

Rotation Three: Sabathia, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva: 771 R

1003.3 IP, 533 R; 80 quality starts

454.7 IP, 238 R

Projection #3: Everyone decreases, McClung average + Average Bullpen (4.71 runs average)

Rotation Four: Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva, McClung: 835 R

966 IP, 578 R; 73 quality starts

492 IP, 257 R;

Projection #4: Non-Sabathia rotation increases + Average Bullpen (4.71 runs average) 

Rotation Five: Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva, McClung: 654 R

1117 IP, 476 R; 89 quality starts

341 IP, 178 R

Projection #5: Sabathia rotation increases + Average Bullpen (4.71 runs average)

Rotation Six: Sabathia, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva: 623 R

1185.7 IP, 480 R; 94 quality starts

272.3 IP, 143 R;

Projection #6: Everyone decreases, McClung average + 10% increase Bullpen (4.23 runs average)

Rotation Seven: Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva, McClung: 809 R

966 IP, 578 R; 73 quality starts

492 IP, 231 R;

Projection #7: Sabathia Increase/Staff Decreases + 10% increase Bullpen (4.23 runs average)

Rotation Eight: Sabathia, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva: 747 R

1003.3 IP, 533 R; 80 quality starts

454.7 IP, 214R

Projection #8: Sabathia Increase/Staff Average + Average bullpen (4.71 runs average) 

Rotation Nine: Sabathia, Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva: 704 R

1086.7 IP, 510 R; 86 quality starts

371.3 IP, 194 R

Projection #9: 2008 averages + Gallardo average + Average bullpen (4.71 runs average) 

Rotation Ten: Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva, McClung: 736 R

1053.3 IP, 524 R; 78 quality starts

404.7 IP, 212 R

Projection #10: 2008 averages + Gallardo average + 5% increase bullpen (4.47 runs average)

Rotation Ten: Bush, Suppan, Parra, Gallardo, Villanueva, McClung: 725 R

1053.3 IP, 524 R; 78 quality starts

404.7 IP, 201 R;