Explanation.
Here are the raw rankings, organized in a couple of ways:
(1) Pitch-type / fast fastball? I used three main groups....Pitchers with fastballs that topped 91 MPH, pitchers that threw sinkers, and pitchers with fastballs below 91 MPH. Surprisingly, my arbitrary selections netted very equal groups. Of the top 74 pitchers, 27 threw a fastball above 91 MPH, 26 threw a distinguishable sinker, and 21 threw a fastball below 91.
Here's how I distinguished a "fastball" from a "sinker." Wading through the raw data, there are rather clear divisions in fastball spin. Big 'ol riding, cross-seam fastballs, like the one Ben Sheets throws, usually have rather high vertical movement (around 11" or so), simply because the pitches are spun so hard and thrown so hard that they drop less than a spinless ball thrown at the same velocity. The horizontal movement, similarly, is less pronounced -- maybe around 5" or 4", usually moving "in" against same-handed batters (right / right, left / left).
Sinking fastballs, on the other hand, have lower vertical ratings, and incredibly pronounced horizontal movement. Now, to make things easy, I am using "sinker" as a catch-all for a "2-seam fastball" and a "sinker." I am aware that many distinguish a 2-seamer (thrown with a straight / cocked wrist) from a sinker (a pitch thrown with a snapped wrist). I am fine with that distinction, and at the end of the day, I still want to showcase pitchers who might throw a lively 2-seam fastball in a different way than pitchers who throw a standard cross-seam / 4-seam fastball.
Here's a noted difference between a pitcher who probably throws a "lively 2-seamer" and a pitcher who throws a "sinker":
5. Peavy, SD (51.5 VORP; 173.7 IP, 57 R): 93.13 MPH, -8.97 MPH
Sinker (93.13) rides up 7.15” and in 8.49” on righties
Slider (84.16) breaks down 5.3” from sinker and 3.14” away from righties
10. Lowe, LAD (49.7 VORP; 211 IP, 84 R): 89.98 MPH, -6.39 MPH
Sinker (89.98) rides up 4.25” and in 9.54” on righties
Slider (83.59) breaks down 2.14” from sinker and 0.78” away from righties
As you can see, Peavy's fastball does not drop as much as Lowe's sinker, and Lowe's sinker has more pronounced horizontal movement. But let's look at a standard cross-seamer:
1. Lincecum, SF (72.5 VORP; 227 IP, 72 R): 95.06 MPH; -10.69 MPH
Fastball (95.06) rides up 11.04” in 3.3” on righties
Change (84.37) breaks down 6.32” from fastball and in 3.52” on righties
You want to tell me that either Lowe or Peavy is throwing the same pitch as Lincecum, who has a classic sign of a cross-seam / 4-seam, riding fastball (11" vertical movement, and less than 4" of horizontal movement).
Some day I will take this data and further break down divisions and gray areas with fastballs. But for now, barring an extensive questionnaire establishing whether or not both Peavy and/or Lowe snap their wrists on their fastballs (or don't snap their wrists), I'm going with one major division:
-Sinkers don't "rise" like 4-seamers
-Sinkers have more horizontal movement.
Now, some poor guys, like Mike Pelfrey, simply have insanely live arms that produce two fastballs that are both borderline sinkers. Poor guy -- what must it be like to throw a 95 MPH fastball with strong horizontal break? I'm certain hitters lose sleep over the classification. "Hey, Pelfrey, are you snapping your wrist?" (This makes me wish that Satchel Paige and Walter Johnson could have pitched in stadiums with pitch f/x....hey Satchel, what'd you do to that fastball????)
So, my simple-yet-imperfect rule for sinkers: a fastball that rides vertically below 9" and breaks horizontally ("in") more than 6"....it'll be more clear below:
Fastball +91 MPH (27): Median VORP: 33.0
2. Santana, NYM (73.4 VORP; 234.3 IP, 74 R) : 92.81 MPH; -11.59 MPH
Fastball (92.81) rides 9.62” and in 5.92” on lefties
Change (81.22) breaks down 1.66” from fastball and in 6.33” on lefties
1. Lincecum, SF (72.5 VORP; 227 IP, 72 R): 95.06 MPH; -10.69 MPH
Fastball (95.06) rides 11.04” and in 3.3” on righties
Change (84.37) breaks down 6.32” from fastball and in 3.52” on righties
9. Haren, Ari (53.2 VORP; 216 IP, 86 R): 91.59 MPH, -10.88 MPH
Fastball (91.59) rides 9.75” and in 5.74”on righties
Curveball (80.71) breaks down 12.26” from fastball and 4.39” away from righties
7. Sheets, Mil (52.4 VORP; 198.3 IP, 74 R): 93.54 MPH, -12.98 MPH
Fastball (93.54) rides 10.76” and in 4.17” on righties
Curveball (80.56) breaks down 13.51” from fastball and 3.15” away from righties
3. Sabathia, Mil (52.2 VORP; 130.7 IP, 31 R): 94.87 MPH, -13.45 MPH
Fastball (94.87) rides 8.48” and in 5.67” on lefties
Slider (81.42) breaks down 8.54” from fastball and 5.6” away from lefties
8. Billingsley, LAD (51.6 VORP; 200.7 IP, 76 R): 92.72 MPH, -1.94 MPH
Fastball (92.72) rides 9.05” and in 2.38” on righties
Sinker (90.78) breaks down 2.60” from fastball and in 7.86” on righties
14. Nolasco, Fla (44.7 VORP; 212.3 IP, 88 R): 92.45 MPH, -16.2 MPH
Fastball (92.45) rides 10.37” and in 3.75” on righties
Curveball (76.25) breaks down 15.90” from fastball and 6.28” away from righties
12. Volquez, Cin (44.3 VORP; 196 IP, 82 R): 83.07 MPH, +10.97 MPH
Change (83.07) rides 1.83” and in 6.98” on righties
Fastball (94.04) rises 7.59” from change and in 4.47” on righties
15. Oswalt, Hou (44.1 VORP; 208.7 IP, 89 R): 93.47 MPH, -1.02 MPH
Fastball (93.47) rides 8.86” and in 3.93” on righties
Sinker (92.45) breaks down 2.47” from fastball and in 7.48” on righties
18. Cain, SF (43.2 VORP; 217.7 IP, 95 R): 93.39 MPH, -7.31 MPH
Fastball (93.39) rides 11.28” and in 4.04” on righties
Slider (86.08) breaks down 8.69” from fastball and 2.68” away from righties
20. Pelfrey, NYM (39.6 VORP; 200.7 IP, 86 R): 95.04 MPH, -0.67 MPH
Fastball (95.04) rides 8.9” and in 7.2” on righties
Sinker (94.37) breaks down 3.11” from fastball and in 9.95” on righties
21. Lohse, StL (39.2 VORP; 200 IP, 88 R): 91.31 MPH, -7.3 MPH
Fastball (91.31) rides 9.45” and in 5.69” on righties
Slider (84.01) breaks down 9.63” from fastball and 3.66” away from righties
22. Wellemeyer, StL (37.3 VORP; 191.7 IP, 84 R): 92.9 MPH, -7.85 MPH
Fastball (92.9) rides 10.36” and in 3.9” on righties
Slider (85.05) breaks down 7.18” from fastball and 2.42” away from righties
26. Jurrjens, Atl (33.0 VORP; 188.3 IP, 87 R): 92.49 MPH, -7.95 MPH
Fastball (92.49) rides 9.24” and in 6.75” on righties
Change (84.54) breaks down 3.16” from fastball and in 8.76” on righties
41. Ol. Perez, NYM (21.0 VORP; 194 IP, 100 R): 92.42 MPH, -12.65 MPH
Fastball (92.42) rides 9.99” and in 6.81” on lefties
Slider (79.77) breaks down 7.81” from fastball and 5.42” away from lefties
65. McClung, Mil (19.9 VORP; 105.3 IP, 47 R): 93.74 MPH, -15.98 MPH
Fastball (93.74) rides 11” and in 3.68” on righties
Curveball (77.76) breaks down 14.64” from fastball and 4.09” away from righties
43. Myers, Phi (19.3 VORP; 190 IP, 103 R): 91.06 MPH, -5.53 MPH
Fastball (91.06) rides 9.95” and in 3.07” on righties
Slider (85.53) breaks down 7.84” from fastball and 2.38” away from righties
37. Maine, NYM (18.6 VORP; 140 IP, 70 R): 94.29 MPH, - 8.35 MPH
Fastball (94.29) rides 10.05” and in 7.84” on righties
Change (85.94) breaks down 4.88” and in 5.02” on rightiess
34. Kershaw, LAD (17.4 VORP; 107.7 IP, 51 R): 94.86 MPH, -20.79 MPH
Fastball (94.86) rides 10.13” and in 2.73” on lefties
Curveball (74.07) breaks down 17.03” from fastball and 3.56” away from lefties
44. Parra, Mil (15.0 VORP; 166 IP, 91 R): 92.38 MPH, -16.72 MPH
Fastball (92.38) rides 9.95” and in 4.52” on lefties
Curveball (75.66) breaks down 12.74” from fastball and 4.55” away from lefties
52. Cueto, Cin (11.5 VORP; 174 IP, 101 R): 94.49 MPH, -8.47 MPH
Fastball (94.49) rides 10.33” and in 5.01” on righties
Slider (86.02) breaks down 8.53” from fastball and 0.69” away from righties
51. J. Sanchez, SF (11.1 VORP; 158 IP, 90 R): 91.86 MPH, -6.60 MPH
Fastball (91.86) rides 9.4” and in 5.67” on lefties
Change (85.21) breaks down 4.22” from fastball and in 6.79” on lefties
47. de la Rosa, Col (9.2 VORP; 130 IP, 77 R): 92.81 MPH, -11.89 MPH
Cutter (92.81) rides 9.03” and in 4.21” on lefties (?)
Slider (80.92) breaks down 8.52” from cutter and 1.39” away from lefties
45. Baek, SD (7.7 VORP; 111 IP, 60 R): 91.78 MPH, -5.57 MPH
Fastball (91.78) rides 9.43” and in 4.17” on righties
Slider (86.21) breaks down 4.09” from fastball and 1.23” away from righties
61. Redding, Was (3.1 VORP; 182 IP, 110 R): 91.26 MPH, -8.90 MPH
Fastball (91.26) rides 9.7” and in 5.86” on righties
Slider (82.36) breaks down 6.9” from fastball and 2.85” away from righties
62. Reyes, Atl (-5.5 VORP; 113 IP, 77 R): 91.3 MPH, -9.11 MPH
Fastball (91.3) rides 10.14” and in 2.93” on lefties
Change (82.19) breaks down 1.12” from fastball and in 3.79” on lefties
73. A. Miller, Fla (-12.4 VORP; 107.3 IP, 78 R): 93.04 MPH, -4.21 MPH
Fastball (93.04) rides 9.12” and in 6.56” on lefties
Change (88.83) breaks down 1.37” from fastball and in 9.28” on lefties
Sinkers (rides below 9” and breaks in more than 6”) (26): Median VORP: 25.4
4. Dempster, ChC (57.5 VORP; 206.7 IP, 75 R): 91.81 MPH, -6.86 MPH
Sinker (91.81) rides 8.26” and in 6.72” on righties
Slider (84.95) breaks down 8.18” from sinker and 1.23” away from righties
5. Peavy, SD (51.5 VORP; 173.7 IP, 57 R): 93.13 MPH, -8.97 MPH
Sinker (93.13) rides 7.15” and in 8.49” on righties
Slider (84.16) breaks down 5.3” from sinker and 3.14” away from righties
11. Webb, Ari (50.8 VORP; 226.7 IP, 95 R): 88.61 MPH, -10.48
Sinker (88.61) rides 1.28” and in 7.22” on righties
Change (78.13) drops 1.31” from sinker and in 4.83” on righties
10. Lowe, LAD (49.7 VORP; 211 IP, 84 R): 89.98 MPH, -6.39 MPH
Sinker (89.98) rides 4.25” and in 9.54” on righties
Slider (83.59) breaks down 2.14” from sinker and 0.78” away from righties
19. Moyer, Phi (40.3 VORP; 196.3 IP, 85 R): 82.06 MPH, -6.91 MPH
Sinker (82.06) rides 6.13” and in 9.01” on lefties
Change (75.15) rises 1.93” from sinker and in 8.2” on lefties
13. Hudson, Atl (37.0 VORP; 142 IP, 53 R): 90.72 MPH, -4.83 MPH
Sinker (90.72) rides 5.08” and in 8.93” on righties
Slider (85.89) breaks down 1.18” from fastball and in 0.75” on righties
24. Cook, Col (36.5 VORP; 211.3 IP, 102 R): 91.39 MPH, -7.39 MPH
Sinker (91.39) rides 5.04” and in 6.89” on righties
Slider (84) breaks down 2.31” from sinker and 1.13” away from righties
23. Zambrano, ChC (35.7 VORP; 188.7 IP, 85 R): 91.84 MPH, -1.14 MPH
Sinker (91.84) rides 4.17” and in 9.57” on righties
Cutter (90.7) rises 2.96” from sinker and in 2.23” on righties
28. Jimenez, Col (32.7 VORP; 198.7 IP, 97 R): 95.76 MPH, -13,73 MPH
Sinker (95.76) rides 7.75” and in 7.27” on righties
Slider (82.03) breaks down 7.41” from sinker and 2.84” away from righties
27. Kuroda, LAD (31.2 VORP; 183.3 IP, 85 R): 92.8 MPH, -8.44 MPH
Sinker (92.8) rides 6.48” and in 8.34” on righties
Slider (84.36) breaks down 3.55” from sinker and in 0.53” on righties
32. R. Johnson, Ari (27.2 VORP; 184 IP, 92 R): 91.52 MPH, -7.86 MPH
Sinker (91.52) rides 7.76” and in 10.21” on lefties
Slider (83.66) breaks down 6.18” from sinker and in 0.22” on lefties
33. Bush, Mil (26.5 VORP; 185 IP, 92 R): 88.38 MPH, -18.93 MPH
Sinker (88.38) rides 7.17” and in 10.17” on righties
Curveball (69.45) breaks down 11.95” from sinker and 4.97” away from righties
36. Looper, StL (25.7 VORP; 199 IP, 101 R): 90.59 MPH, -8.69 MPH
Sinker (90.59) rides 8.3” and in 7.65” on righties
Change (81.9) breaks down 7.27” and in 6.81” on righties
35. Lannan, Was (25.1 VORP; 182 IP, 89 R): 88.01 MPH, -7.2 MPH
Sinker (88.01) rides 6.93” and in 3.87” on lefties
Slider (80.81) breaks down 5.03” from sinker and 2.35” away from lefties
39. Marquis, ChC (20.8 VORP; 167 IP, 87 R): 90.89 MPH, -6.59 MPH
Sinker (90.89) rides 6.48” and in 7.61” on righties
Slider (84.4) breaks down 3.57” from sinker and 0.87” away from righties
42. Maddux, SD (15.0 VORP; 153.3 IP, 80 R): 84.23 MPH, -5.98 MPH
Sinker (84.23) rides 4.34” and in 7.63” on righties
Change (78.25) breaks down 0.64” from sinker and 1.79” away from righties
49. Francis, Col (10.6 VORP; 143.7 IP, 84 R): 87.22 MPH, -7.96 MPH
Sinker (87.22) rides 7.77” and in 7.49” on lefties
Change (79.26) breaks down 2.12” from sinker and in 4.93” on lefties
57. Duke, Pit (7.4 VORP; 185 IP, 111 R): 89.56 MPH, -15.59 MPH
Sinker (89.56) rides 7.01” and in 7.79” on lefties
Curveball (73.97) breaks down 12.26” from sinker and 4.26” away from lefties
55. Pineiro, StL (5.7 VORP; 148.7 IP, 89 R): 89.62 MPH, +0.53 MPH
Sinker (89.62) rides 5.91” and in 5.83” on righties
Fastball (90.15) rises 3.19” from sinker and in 1.97” on righties
53. Wolf, SD (4.7 VORP; 119.7 IP, 69 R): 89.06 MPH, -0.13 MPH
Sinker (1) (89.06) rides 6.27” and in 9.99” on lefties
Sinker (2) (88.93) rises 2.62” from sinker (1) and in 4.95” on lefties
56. Eaton. Phi (-1.9 VORP; 107 IP, 71 R): 90.43 MPH, -6.09 MPH
Sinker (90.43) rides 8.18” and in 7.32” on righties
Change (84.34) breaks down 2.14” and in 3.38” on righties
68. Snell, Pit (-1.9 VORP; 164.3 IP, 107 R): 92.92 MPH, -8.49 MPH
Sinker (92.92) rides 8.4” and in 6.27” on righties
Slider (84.43) breaks down 6.13” from sinker and 0.38” away from righties
58. P. Martinez, NYM (-2.0 VORP; 109 IP, 70 R): 90.08 MPH, -0.96 MPH
Sinker (1) (90.08 MPH) rides 7.25” and in 6.13” on righties
Sinker (2) (89.12 MPH) breaks down 3.83” from sinker (1) and in 8.59” on righties
64. Kendrick, Phi (-2.9 VORP; 155.7 IP, 103 R): 90.65 MPH, -7.45 MPH
Sinker (90.65) rides 6.33” and in 8.41” on righties
Slider (83.4) breaks down 3.12” from sinker and 1.5” away from righties
60. Owings, Ari (-5.8 VORP; 104.7 IP, 73 R): 89.35 MPH, -6.61 MPH
Sinker (89.35) rides 6.93” and in 1.86” on righties
Slider (82.74) breaks down 4.10” from sinker and 1.93” away from righties
74. Backe, Hou (-7.9 VORP; 166.7 IP, 114 R): 89.98 MPH, -6.67 MPH
Sinker (89.98) rides 8.04” and in 6.86” on righties
Slider (83.31) breaks down 6.30” from sinker and 1.53” away from righties
Fastball -91 MPH (21): Median VORP: 15.7
6. Hamels, Phi (56.3 VORP; 227.3 IP, 89 R): 90.92 MPH, -10.34 MPH
Fastball (90.92) rides 12.09” and in 2.68” on lefties
Change (90.58) breaks down 4.06” from fastball and in 7.77” on lefties
16. Maholm, Pit (42.7 VORP; 206.3 IP, 89 R): 90.64 MPH, -13.73 MPH
Fastball (90.64) rides 8.92” and in 4.72” on lefties
Curveball (76.91) breaks down 12.61” from fastball and 3.25” away from lefties
25. Lilly, ChC (35.3 VORP; 204.7 IP, 96 R): 88.13 MPH, -5.23 MPH
Fastball (88.13) rides 11.43” and in 5.98” on lefties
Slider (82.9) breaks down 7.7” from fastball and 0.31” away from lefties
17. Wainwright, StL (33.2 VORP; 132 IP, 51 R): 90.76 MPH, -6.61 MPH
Fastball (90.76) rides 10.3” and in 5.82” on righties
Slider (84.15) breaks down 6.22” from fastball and 3.92” away from righties
29. Campillo, Atl (25.8 VORP; 158.7 IP, 74 R): 81.43 MPH, +5.01 MPH
Slider (81.43) rides 4.85” and 0.79” away from righties
Fastball (86.44) rises 6.38” from slider and in 4.22” on righties
30. W. Rodroguez, Hou (22.4 VORP; 137.3 IP, 65 R): 75.76 MPH, +14.21 MPH
Curveball (75.76) breaks down 7.41” and 5.65” away from lefties
Fastball (89.97) rises 16.9” from curve and in 7.11” on lefties
38. D. Davis, Ari (19.3 VORP; 146 IP, 76 R): 82.38 MPH, +2.34 MPH
Cutter (82.38) rides 5.53” and in 0.78” on righties
Fastball (84.72) rises 5.24” from cutter and in 3.37” on lefties
46. Olsen, Fla (18.0 VORP; 201.7 IP, 106 R): 88.14 MPH, -6.89 MPH
Fastball (88.14) rides 11.78” and in 6.27” on lefties
Change (81.23) breaks down 3.49” from fastball and in 4.78” on lefties
31. Young, SD (17.6 VORP; 102.3 IP, 46 R): 87.51 MPH, -9.09 MPH
Fastball (87.51) rides 12.62” and in 1.04” on righties
Slider (78.42) drops 8.38” from fastball and 0.48” away from righties
40. Moehler, Hou (16.8 VORP; 150 IP, 79 R): 89.12 MPH, +0.29 MPH
Fastball (89.12) rides 9.97” and in 3.99” on righties
Sinker (89.41) breaks down 3.39” from fastball and in 7.63” on righties
66. Villanueva, Mil (15.7 VORP; 108.3 IP, 53 R): 88.01 MPH, -5.57 MPH
Fastball (88.01) rides 11.13” and in 5.27” on righties
“Slider” (82.54) breaks down 6.38” from fastball and in 0.61” on righties
48. Harang, Cin (15.5 VORP; 184.3 IP, 104 R): 90.31 MPH, -9.04 MPH
Fastball (90.31) rides 10.57” and in 5.91” on righties
Slider (81.27) drops 9.22” from fastball and 1.24” away from righties
67. Sampson, Hou (14.6 VORP; 117.3 IP, 60 R): 83.93 MPH, +4.74 MPH
Slider (83.93) rides 2.89” and 0.89” away from righties
Fastball (88.67) rises 5.13” from slider and in 5.04” on righties
54. Arroyo, Cin (13.1 VORP; 200 IP, 116 R): 74.27 MPH, +15.09 MPH
Slider (74.27) rides 0.96” and 8.3” away from righties
Fastball (89.18) rises 8.93” from slider and in 3.67” on righties
50. Od. Perez, Was (12.0 VORP; 159.7 IP, 87 R): 89.02 MPH, -6.16 MPH
Fastball (89.02) rides 8.37” and in 5.68” on lefties
Slider (82.86) breaks down 4.75” from fastball and 0.81” away from lefties
59. Suppan, Mil (3.6 VORP; 177 IP, 110 R): 87.3 MPH, -3.98 MPH
Fastball (87.3) rides 9.56” and in 6.19” on righties
“Cutter” (83.32) breaks down 5.24” from fastball and in 2.45” on righties
69. Zito, SF (-0.9 VORP; 180 IP, 115 R): 84.92 MPH, -10.52 MPH
Fastball (84.92) rides 11.7” and in 3.36” on lefties
Change (74.4) breaks down 6.74” from fastball and in 6.98” on lefties
63. Hendrickson, Fla (-4.3 VORP; 133.7 IP, 87 R): 88.43 MPH, -14.79 MPH
Fastball (88.43) rides 9.36” and in 6.99” on lefties
Curveball (73.64) breaks down 13.09” from fastball and 4.02” away from lefties
70. Bergmann, Was (-6.3 VORP; 139.7 IP, 94 R): 90.41 MPH, -5.32 MPH
Fastball (90.41) rides 9.8” and in 5.87” on righties
Change (85.09) breaks down 3.86” from fastball and in 2.21” on righties
71. Correia, SF (-9.9 VORP; 110 IP, 80 R): 89.43 MPH, -6.92 MPH
Fastball (89.43) rides 9.64” and in 0.33” on righties
Slider (82.51) breaks down 9.13” from fastball and 3.95” away from righties
72. Gorzelanny, Pit (-11.4 VORP; 105.3 IP, 79 R): 90.32 MPH, -6.86 MPH
Fastball (90.32) rides 9.67” and in 7.73” on lefties
Change (83.46) breaks down 5.78” from fastball and in 7.61” on lefties