December 2008 - Posts

• Chasing the Gold

  Posted Dec 29 2008, 06:59 AM by radio silence

  I am not jealous of the Yanks' ability to sign free agent pitchers to 5 or 6 or 7 year contracts.

  I know I'm supposed to be -- hell, all baseball fans and casual fans are supposed to marvel at the idea of building a club through free agency. "Who wouldn't want to sign the biggest stars and bring them to their team?"

  While most baseball fans pay attention to the huge money that free agents are bringing in, and look after those coveted ace arms, another trend slugs behind the surging level of free agency contracts -- that is, the arbitration buy-out deal.

  It is not the case that every free agency pitching deal will automatically become a failure, but it is the case that the more evidence you assemble regarding free agency pitching deals, the more evidence you find against signing free agency pitchers. Meanwhile, the arbitration buy-out deal is often over-looked because the given player does not change teams; the given player does not sign for an insane amount of money; the given player might only have a year of free agency purchased out by such a contract.

  And yet, with these contracts, the teams that sign them are placed in a situation of not acquiring an arm for years beyond any prudent scope of innings and pitch workloads or arm injuries or ineffectiveness or aging; rather the teams simply maintain their current rotation arrangement with their current ace, and purchase his arby years and a free agency year to boot. This provides a reasonable contract, one that does not require years of speculation about workloads, injuries, age, or how a previous team handled the arm.

  Moreover, while free agency pitching contracts have sky-rocketed in the last few years (one only needs to look at A.J. Burnett, who just received a $5 million raise without improving his performance track record in Toronto), the level of arbitration deals remains consistent.

  Here are the last 32 arbitration buyout deals that I could find for aces, loosely using the term to mean a pitcher who produced an ERA+ between 110 and 120 or so (at least) prior to signing the buyout deal:

  Tim Hudson (2001; 4/$9.1 + $6 mil option; 5/$15.1)

   

  Barry Zito (2002; 4/$9.3 + $7 mil option; 5/$16.3)

  Mark Mulder (2002; 4/$14.2 + $7.25 mil option; 5/$21.45)

   

  Brandon Webb (2004; 3/$3.3 + replaced $4 mil option; 4/$7.3)

  Mark Buehrle (2004; 4/$18 + $9.5 mil option; 5/$27.5)

  Roy Halladay (2004; 4/$42)

  Javier Vazquez (2004; 4/$45)

  Kerry Wood (2004; 3/$32.5 + declined $13.5 mil option; 4/$46)

   

  Jake Westbrook (2005; 2/$7.5 + $5.6 mil option; 3/$13.1)

  Roy Oswalt (2005; 2/$16.9)

  Rich Harden (2005; 4/$9 + $7 mil option; 5/$16)

  Jake Peavy (2005; 4/$14.5 + $8 mil option; 5/$22.5)

  Ben Sheets (2005; 4/$38.5)

  Johan Santana (2005; 4/$39.75)

   

  Aaron Cook (2006; 2/$4.55 + $4.5 mil option; 3/$9.55)

  Noah Lowry (2006; 4/$9.25 + $6.25 mil option; 5/$15.50)

  Dan Haren (2006; 4/$12.65 mil + replaced $6.75 mil option; 5/$19.35)

  John Lackey (2006; 3/$17.01 + $9 mil option; 4/$26.01)

  Brandon Webb (2006; (4/$19.5 + $8.5 mil option; 5/$28)

   

  Matt Cain (2007; 4/$9 + $6.25 mil option; 5/$15.25)

  Jeff Francis (2007; 4/$13.25 + $7 mil option; 5/$20.25)

  Chris Young (2007; 4/$14.5 + $8.5 mil option; 5/$22.5)

  Brett Myers (2007; 3/$25.75)

  C.C. Sabathia (2007; 2/$17.5)

  Jeremy Bonderman (2007; 4/$38)

  Josh Beckett (2007; 3/$30 + $12 mil option; 4/$42)

   

  Ian Snell (2008; 3/$8.6 + $16 mil club options; 5/$24.6)

  Dontrelle Willis (2008; 3/$29)

  Adam Wainwright (2008; 4/$15 + $21 mil club options; 6/$36)

   

  Joakim Soria (2009; 3/$8.75 + $22.75 mil options; 6/$31.50)

  Aaron Cook (2009; 3/$30 + $11 mil option; 4/$41)

  Scott Kazmir (2009; 3/$28.5 + $13.5 mil option; 4/$42)

  At the end of the day, it's not simply that I don't think the Brewers cannot afford to sign multi-year free agency deals to build their rotation; they can't. It's that I don't think such deals are viable options, it's that such deals do not produce valuable performance for their cost, and moreover, it's the simple fact that there is a strong alternative available: an alternative that provides a more constant price, a rate based on service, and the chance at keeping your pitcher at least one year into his free agency years.

  Instead of focusing on the free agency market whatsoever, the Brewers need to trade, draft, and develop young pitchers who can be controlled through the "renewal" and "arbitration" stages of the contract; these pitchers then present the Brewers with an opportunity for a valuable extension, which doesn't look as lucrative or impressive as a free agency deal, but is a more sound financial decision, one that returns better value for production than a free agency contract.

  It's not that I am not concerned about whether or not the Brewers will find a free agent pitcher to fill-out their rotation and provide depth for 2009; it's that I see so few options in the near future for providing the Brewers with 7-8 valuable years of service, between age 21 and age 31, pitchers that would allow the Brewers to not focus on signing aging pitchers who are well into their 30s, following extensive IP workloads throughout years of service.

  I want the Brewers to keep starting pitchers for 5-7 years, but not through the free agency market. The Brewers could benefit greatly from finding their pitching production from young controllable arms, both because of the actual financial requirements of such controllable arms, and also because of the value of production per dollar.
  

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• Blame it on the Stadium

  Posted Dec 24 2008, 06:16 AM by radio silence

  According to baseball fans and even some owners, MLB has a serious problem with its payroll disparities. In the wake of the Yankees' off-season spending spree -- featuring surefire moves to lock up 3rd place in the AL East in 2009, everyone's favorite New York team flexed its financial muscle, showing off its finely sculpted body to the jealous chubsters in Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Tampa, and Oakland, among other places. 

  The MLB has a severe problem with payrolls, revenue sharing, and needs a salary cap. Right?

  I'm not convinced that this is what we should be upset about.

  In the course of building Yankee Stadium (for the 2nd or 3rd time), the Yankees secured grants and loans from the federal agencies that were based on a severe over-estimate regarding the land in south Bronx, on which the new stadium site resides. The Yankees say that without these loans, they wouldn't have been able to build the Stadium -- I don't necessarily disagree, and I certainly don't disagree that if the Yankees didn't secure incredibly low-rate construction loans and grants, they certainly would not have been able to go on a $400+ million shopping spree.

  The scenario all seems rather clear to me -- this economy reflects the entire phenomenon. The market would not have supported new Yankees Stadium had the Yanks been forced to build the stadium without those federal loans and grants. The Stadium funding and planning would have taken a different route, perhaps one that was less favorable to everyone's beloved Bronx Bombers. The beauty of the loans and grants, and the severe misjudgment of the land on which new Yankee Stadium sits, is that they allowed the Yankees to secure a route to build a stadium that supported their financial interests in baseball, as well as their financial interests outside of their payroll interests, and all of this occurred without any consideration whatsoever of whether or not Yankee Stadium was a viable project without such misjudgment of the land.
  

  Given Guiliani's box seats, Billy Crystal's contract, and the decades of tradition of which the Yanks can boast, it seems rather intuitive that the Yanks should have a stadium built for them --  I think that even President George W. Bush and President-Elect Barack Obama would agree that it's UN-AMERICAN! for the Yanks to not receive a stadium.

  Luckily, federal agencies agreed.

  Don't be upset about the lack of revenue sharing in baseball, or the lack of a salary cap. Don't be upset about the amount of free agency contracts.

  Be upset that the Yankees' plan for opening their stadium with a revamped line up featuring baseball's newest hired guns required stark dishonesty in order to secure construction funds. Be upset that the completion of the stadium with those suspect funds probably helped to spur the Yanks' spending spree. And now, be upset that this team will collect the revenue generated from this new stadium, with their new line up, with their new hired guns, on ground that wasn't worth what they said it was.

  Luckily, the free agents they signed have the same problem -- they're not worth the advertised price. Of course, that's probably the way of business in New York.
  

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• Caribbean Series Brewers

  Posted Dec 15 2008, 09:55 PM by radio silence

   

   It's not yet time for the Caribbean Series, but there are some interesting Brewers doing very well in the winter leagues.

  I thought I'd take the ten most interesting names, and provide a link for the Brewers' organization Winter League site.I listed their name, Brewers' 2008 affiliations, and their current team and league (VWL = Venezuela, DWL = Dominican, LMP = Mexican Pacific, PWL = Puerto Rican).
  

  1. Brendan Katin (AAA), Aguilas de Zulia (VWL): 41 G, 141 AB, 36 H, 7 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR; 43 K/11 BB; .255/.346/.574. Clearly Katin has himself confused with the Ryan Braun of the Venezuelan league, slugging the daylight out of the ball in a fairly regular role for Zulia. A fringe bat at best -- Brewerfan.net's #47 player on the Power 50, Katin gets first spot here for his pure swat -- you read that correctly, 20 of his 36 hits were for extra bases.

   2. Brad Nelson (AAA), Gigantes del Cibao (DWL): 21 G, 72 AB, 22 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR; 17 K/9 BB; .306/.375/.705. In a part time role with the legendary Gigantes, Nelson is putting together quite a winter. 15 of his 22 hits are for extra bases, and even better is his K/BB ratio -- his strike out rate is fair, and he's maintaining a better than 10% BB ratio in a slugger's paradise. (They used to say that you don't get off of the island by walking).

  3. Eduardo Morlan (---), Criollos de Caguas (PWL). 12 G, 14 IP, 15 H, 4 R, 15 K/3 BB; 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP. Under the category of "warm body who throws hard," Morlan is our current Rule V project for 2009, left unprotected by the confident Rays organization, due to a shoulder injury, weight issues, and a particularly victimizing radar gun. Nevertheless, he's striking guys out (15 K in 14 IP), not walking guys (3 BB in 14 IP), and even though that hit total looks high, he's not allowing his baserunners to score very often (4 of 18 baserunners have scored). I'm going to hang my hat on the 5/1 K/BB, and keep this name in the front of my mind -- Morlan looks like the most intriguing arm for the pen in 2009.
  

  4. Case McGehee (---), Tomateros de Culiacen (LMP): 30 G, 129 AB, 43 H, 7 2B, 7 HR; 15 K/5 BB; .333/.356/.550. Scrap heap pick up at the hot corner gets the attention in the third spot, slugging his way at a solid rate (14 of 43 hits for extra bases), and simply hitting the ball like crazy.
  

  5. Chris Narveson (AAA), Naranheros de Hermosillo (LMP): 7 GS, 40.7 IP, 36 H, 19 R, 42 K/9 BB; 3.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. One of the AAA safety-valves is performing well in the Mexican Pacific league, keeping his baserunners to a minimum, and sporting a solid ERA and decent runs average. The K-rate has to jump out here -- while he did strike out 125 in 136 IP at Nashville in 2008, the 42 K in 40.7 IP looks fantastic, especially coupled with a K/BB rate better than 4/1.

  6. Hernan Iribarren (AAA), Cardenales de Lara (VWL): 30 G, 110 AB, 36 H, 3 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR; 14 K/16 BB; .327/.409/.482. This is good stuff all around. While Iribarren is posting a low "driving" SLG total, his speed is leading him to better XBH totals than he'd otherwise have. And what does all that matter anyway when you're simply combining speed with lots of hits, and an incredible amount of walks? That's right, 16 BB in approximately 130 PA. That's awesome, especially for a guy who drew 28 walks in nearly 400 PA at AAA in 2008.
  

  7. R.J. Swindle (---), Navegantes de Magallanes (VWL): 22 G, 22.3 IP, 18 H, 7 R, 17 K/5 BB; 2.82 ERA, 1.03 WHIP. Does a 50 MPH curveball count as an eephus? Apparently the next Brian Shouse is already working his magic south of the equator, keeping the walks down, striking out a rather surprising percentage of batters, and stranding his runners at a moderate rate (7 of his 23 runners have scored). Even the hits look good. While he's not a warm body who throws hard, he's still a warm body, and sometimes that's just what a bullpen needs.

  8. Tony Gwynn, Jr. (AAA), Navegantes del Magallanes (VWL): 26 G, 98 AB, 30 H, 2 2B, 1 3B; 27 K/13 BB; .306/.395/.347. God awful slugging, but let's forget that. Gwynn is doing the one thing he failed to do in his limited MLB experience: walk. That empty batting AVG (.306 AVG, .347 SLG, .041 ISO) is terrible, but I listed him here because 13 walks in approximately 111 PA is exactly what Gwynn needs to do to succeed.
  

  9. Jason Bourgeois (---), Caneros de los Mochis (LMP): 31 G, 130 AB, 44 H, 6 2B, 1 HR; 19 K/9 BB; .339/.394/.408. In the "Say what!??!" category, Bourgeois is under an invitation to Spring Training and Minor League contract set up for the Brewers, having last played for the White Sox organization in Charlotte for 2008. Nothing jumps out here except for the solid K/BB and OBP. A big 'ol empty AVG (.338 AVG, .408 SLG, .070 ISO), but the numbers jump out anyhow with that OBP. File this one under "we'll see."

  10. Jorge Julio (---), Leones de Caracas (VWL): 10 G, 9 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 9 K/4 BB; 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP. Nothing spectacular here. But he's striking guys out, at least.

  Keep an eye on these guys, especially the young ones as well as the stopgap pieces for our bullpen.
  

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• Good on ya', C.C.

  Posted Dec 10 2008, 09:49 AM by radio silence

  You're my hero, C.C. Sabathia.

  Not only did you put together one of the most improbable and incredible performances for a mid-season acquisition, not only did you help to put a strong rotation over the top, and help to drive the Crew to the playoffs, but you also took the Yankees to the cleaners!

  7/$160 --  the fourth largest deal signed in the history of MLB.

  You're my hero because you took a landscape in which two teams provided concrete, serious offers for you, with others possibly involved but failing to offer concrete figures, and you still managed to get the Yankees to outbid themselves for your services.

  The Brewers apparently did not increase their offer; the Brewers' original offer was even $40 million off; and you received another year and $20 million more on top of that. Beautiful negotiation skills, big man!

  I cannot say that I will be cheering for Sabathia in New York. I will be forever grateful for what he helped the Brewers accomplish in 2008, my first experience of playoff baseball in my lifetime. And I don't think there was any honest way the Brewers could maintain a salary at the level he was commanding for multiple years -- I know that contradicts my original sentiments about the trade, in which I held that Sabathia would need to be re-signed for the deal to be worthwhile, but my understanding of pitching contracts has changed.

  With a 7-year deal, the Yankees are taking a very large gamble. A gamble of health and effectiveness, as the contract reaches well into Sabathia's 30s. Will he keep his fastball? Stay healthy? Continue to pitch 200 IP seasons? Continue to prevent runs at a high rate?

  I am happy that it is the Yankees that need to deal with that gamble now, and not the Brewers. I am also happy that Sabathia received the 4th best contract ever -- he really took the Yankees to the cleaners. 
  

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• Best NL Fastballs

  Posted Dec 07 2008, 09:54 AM by radio silence

  What is a fastball? A fastball is a pitch that can be spun for different purposes, such as a riding, or rising fastball, which is spun in order to drop less than its natural velocity would suggest, or a sinking fastball, which is spun in order to break in or out on a batter, and sometimes break down. We usually identify fastballs as 4-seam or cross seam fastballs, which are closer to the rising fastball, as 2-seam or sinking fastballs, which usually are slower than cross-seam fastball, and move inward, outward, or downward, or a cut fastballs, which are spun to break  inward on an opposite-handed hitter.

  ***

  One of the advantages of utilizing pitch f/x technology is that the system specifically and overtly measures the spin of any recorded pitch. The spin of a pitch is measured against the path of a spinless ball thrown with the same velocity as the recorded pitch -- naturally, due to manner in which our universe behaves, a pitch that is thrown with spin will behave much differently than a pitch thrown without spin.

  One of the unstated advantages of measuring pitches in this way is to discern the very specific manners in which pitchers throw fastballs. If we think of fastballs as how they are spun, rather than simple top speed velocity, we suddenly have an invaluable resource in our possession. We can utilize pitch f/x data in order to classify specific fastballs, and the similarities and differences of fastballs with more or less spin, or different types of spin. Josh Kalk collects, corrects, and publishes this data in his excellent website and excellent pitcher cards, which is my source of research (and I should say, these lists that follow are my interpretations of his data, and not his endorsed position. I love using Kalk's site for creating series previews and writing about pitchers and their arsenals, but in order to construct this survey, I used some of my own assumptions that may or may not deviate from his stated use of the data, which I might add is much more scientific and specialized than my reading of the data).

  Here's what I did: not long ago I classified the top NL pitchers with 100+ IP according to runs prevented, VORP, and basic runs average and IP stats. My second survey of pitchers combined those performance markers with judgments of the pitchers' two most frequently selected pitches in their pitching approaches -- which usually meant some type of fastball or sinker, and some type of off-speed pitch (but not always).

  That survey was conducted in order to display the basic types of stuff thrown by pitchers of various performance levels. One of the drawbacks of that survey was my broad description of fastballs -- I differentiated between a fastball and sinker depending upon how much vertical and horizontal break a given pitchers' fastball displayed; however, I did not go into great detail classifying different fastballs.

  And so, the following survey, which focuses on differentiating distinct types of fastballs based on differences in break, differences in velocity, and so on. Note:

  -A sinker is still a pitch that rides lower than 9" vertically, and breaks in more than 6" horizontally (on a like-handed batter). I have produced four different sinker classifications for this survey, which will hopefully provide us some ground for discerning whether or not a pitcher throws a specific sinker or a two-seam fastball (the difference being that some recognize a sinker as a pitch in which the pitcher snaps his wrist, a two-seamer as a more standard fastball that simply varies the grip of the cross-seam or 4-seam fastball, but not the release type).

  -I realize that it is impossible to discern whether or not a pitcher snaps his wrist when throwing a sinker. Luckily we have scouting reports for that, and my second classification of this list will incorporate traditional scouting reports to verify data.

  -I placed pitchers who threw both fastball and sinker pitches as their primary and secondary pitch selections, and threw both pitches more frequently than any other breaking pitch. I placed these pitches together to see if their cross-seam fastball, or main fastball, exhibited any different traits.

  Here is the list of pitches I organized, and I listed the most successful pitcher of each group:

  94+ MPH Regardless of Fastball / Sinker (but not both) (Lincecum)

  (avg. break in: 5.00”; 94.64 MPH)

   

  91-93 MPH Fastball (rides 10”) (Sheets)

  (avg. ride: 10.65”; avg. break in: 3.75”; 92.89 MPH)

  91-93 MPH Fastball (rides 9”-10”; in more than 5”) (Santana)

  (avg. break in 6.13”; 92.10 MPH)

  91-93 MPH Fastball (rides 9”-10”; in less than 5”) (B. Myers)

  (avg. break in: 3.99”; 92.01 MPH)

  Fastball and Sinker Pitchers (Billingsley)

  (avg. ride: 9.18”; avg. break in: 3.89; 92.10 MPH)

   

  Sinker One (rides 8” to 9” and breaks in more than 6”) (Dempster)

   

  (avg. break in: 6.96”; 91.15 MPH)

   

  Sinker Two (rides 7” to 8” and breaks in more than 6”) (Peavy)

   

  (avg. break in: 8.38”; 89.98 MPH)

   

  Sinker Three (rides 6”-7” and breaks in more than 6”) (Moyer)

   

  (avg. break in: 7.01”; 88.97 MPH)

   

  Sinker Four (rides below 6” and breaks in more than 6”) (Webb)

  (avg. break in: 8.30”; 89.46 MPH)

  88-90 MPH Fastball (rides 10”) (Hamels)

  (avg. ride: 11.22”; avg. break in: 5.32”; 89.38 MPH)

   

  88-90 MPH Fastball (rides 8-10” and in more than 5”) (W. Rodriguez)

  (avg. break in: 6.40”; 89.47 MPH)

  88-90 MPH Fastball (rides 8-10” and in less than 5”) (Maholm)

  (avg. ride: 9.48”; avg. break in: 2.91”; 89.75 MPH)

  -88 MPH Fastball (Campillo)

  (avg. ride: 11.18”; avg, break in: 3.64”; 86.18 MPH)

  In these basic classifications, we can see some of the advantages of thinking about fastballs as spinning pitches, rather than pitches that are simply classified due to velocity.

  (a) Riding, rising fastballs do not necessarily depend upon velocity. Pitchers who throw fastballs in the mid-80s, 89-90 range, or 93+ range possess riding fastballs that rise above a spinless pitch at similar levels; in fact, the slower riding fastballs on this list have better vertical ratings than the faster fastballs in some cases. The reason for this is mainly physical -- spinless pitches at 84-87, 89-90, and 93+ will each perform differently, and therefor the vertical "rise" measured at each velocity will be different.

  But the point is crucial: fastballs rise because of how they are thrown -- that is, it is a specific spin, a specific type of pitch that a pitcher is executing when he throws a rising fastball. This is one way to differentiate a fastball from simple, raw ability -- a rising fastball does not simply rise because a certain pitcher has a specifically live arm, or can throw a ball at a certain high velocity.

  (b) There seem to be two types of sinkerball pitchers; the first two groups, exemplified by Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster, appear to be pitchers who throw specific two-seam fastballs, thrown with less "sink," but not necessarily less horizontal movement. So, we might classify this group of pitchers as falling somewhere between a fastball and a sinkerball pitcher, depending upon the movement of their pitch -- due to an inability to fully discern pitch release points and release strategies with these numbers, we might simply call gray-area fastballs, between sinkers and fastballs, "moving fastballs."

  I am very pleased with how sinker groups three and four turned out: both groups include the pitchers we fully identify with sinkerball pitchers, and pitchers who actually throw sinkers according to scouting reports (and also, pitchers who might not possess a standard cross-seam fastball).

  (c) The most boring groups of pitchers are the 91-93 MPH and 88-90 MPH pitchers who throw fastballs with less than 5" of horizontal break. It seems to me that the best and most exciting pitchers do tend to throw fastballs with more pronounced horizontal movement, regardless of how the fastball "rides" vertically through the zone -- this seems to make sense, intuitively, because it is generally known that the effectiveness of a specific pitch is not necessarily its velocity, but its movement.

  How often do we hear analysts say, "it doesn't matter how fast the pitch is, an MLB batter can hit a straight pitch"...?

  With that, here are the fastball classifications:

  94+ MPH Regardless of Fastball / Sinker (but not both) (8)

  (avg. break in: 5.00; 94.64 MPH)

  1. Lincecum, SF (72.5 VORP; 227 IP, 72 R): 95.06 MPH; -10.69 MPH

              Fastball (95.06) rides 11.04” and in 3.3” on righties

              Change (84.37) breaks down 6.32” from fastball and in 3.52” on righties

  3. Sabathia, Mil (52.2 VORP; 130.7 IP, 31 R): 94.87 MPH, -13.45 MPH

              Fastball (94.87) rides 8.48” and in 5.67” on lefties

              Slider (81.42) breaks down 8.54” from fastball and 5.6” away from lefties

  12. Volquez, Cin (44.3 VORP; 196 IP, 82 R): 83.07 MPH, +10.97 MPH

              Change (83.07) rides 1.83” and in 6.98” on righties

              Fastball (94.04) rises 7.59” from change and in 4.47” on righties

  28. Jimenez, Col (32.7 VORP; 198.7 IP, 97 R): 95.76 MPH, -13,73 MPH

              Sinker (95.76) rides 7.75” and in 7.27” on righties

              Slider (82.03) breaks down 7.41” from sinker and 2.84” away from righties

  37. Maine, NYM (18.6 VORP; 140 IP, 70 R): 94.29 MPH, - 8.35 MPH

              Fastball (94.29) rides 10.05” and in 7.84” on righties

              Change (85.94) breaks down 4.88” and in 5.02” on rightiess

  34. Kershaw, LAD (17.4 VORP; 107.7 IP, 51 R): 94.86 MPH, -20.79 MPH

              Fastball (94.86) rides 10.13” and in 2.73” on lefties

              Curveball (74.07) breaks down 17.03” from fastball and 3.56” away from lefties

  52. Cueto, Cin (11.5 VORP; 174 IP, 101 R): 94.49 MPH, -8.47 MPH

              Fastball (94.49) rides 10.33” and in 5.01” on righties

              Slider (86.02) breaks down 8.53” from fastball and 0.69” away from righties

   

  **

   

   91-93 MPH Fastball (rides 10”) (5)

  (avg. ride: 10.65; avg. break in: 3.75”; 92.89 MPH)

  7. Sheets, Mil (52.4 VORP; 198.3 IP, 74 R): 93.54 MPH, -12.98 MPH

              Fastball (93.54) rides 10.76” and in 4.17” on righties

              Curveball (80.56) breaks down 13.51” from fastball and 3.15” away from righties

  14. Nolasco, Fla (44.7 VORP; 212.3 IP, 88 R): 92.45 MPH, -16.2 MPH

              Fastball (92.45) rides 10.37” and in 3.75” on righties

              Curveball (76.25) breaks down 15.90” from fastball and 6.28” away from righties 

  18. Cain, SF (43.2 VORP; 217.7 IP, 95 R): 93.39 MPH, -7.31 MPH

              Fastball (93.39) rides 11.28” and in 4.04” on righties

              Slider (86.08) breaks down 8.69” from fastball and 2.68” away from righties

  22. Wellemeyer, StL (37.3 VORP; 191.7 IP, 84 R): 92.9 MPH, -7.85 MPH

              Fastball (92.9) rides 10.36” and in 3.9” on righties

              Slider (85.05) breaks down 7.18” from fastball and 2.42” away from righties

  62. Reyes, Atl (-5.5 VORP; 113 IP, 77 R): 91.3 MPH, -9.11 MPH

              Fastball (91.3) rides 10.14” and in 2.93” on lefties

              Change (82.19) breaks down 1.12” from fastball and in 3.79” on lefties

  65. McClung, Mil (19.9 VORP; 105.3 IP, 47 R): 93.74 MPH, -15.98 MPH

              Fastball (93.74) rides 11” and in 3.68” on righties

              Curveball (77.76) breaks down 14.64” from fastball and 4.09” away from righties

   

  **

   

    91-93 MPH Fastball (rides 9”-10”; in more than 5”) (8)

  (avg. break in 6.13; 92.10 MPH)

  2. Santana, NYM (73.4 VORP; 234.3 IP, 74 R) : 92.81 MPH; -11.59 MPH

              Fastball (92.81) rides 9.62” and in 5.92” on lefties

              Change (81.22) breaks down 1.66” from fastball and in 6.33” on lefties

  9. Haren, Ari (53.2 VORP; 216 IP, 86 R): 91.59 MPH, -10.88 MPH

              Fastball (91.59) rides 9.75” and in 5.74”on righties

              Curveball (80.71) breaks down 12.26” from fastball and 4.39” away from righties

  21. Lohse, StL (39.2 VORP; 200 IP, 88 R): 91.31 MPH, -7.3 MPH

              Fastball (91.31) rides 9.45” and in 5.69” on righties

              Slider (84.01) breaks down 9.63” from fastball and 3.66” away from righties

  26. Jurrjens, Atl (33.0 VORP; 188.3 IP, 87 R): 92.49 MPH, -7.95 MPH

              Fastball (92.49) rides 9.24” and in 6.75” on righties

              Change (84.54) breaks down 3.16” from fastball and in 8.76” on righties

  41. Ol. Perez, NYM (21.0 VORP; 194 IP, 100 R): 92.42 MPH, -12.65 MPH

              Fastball (92.42) rides 9.99” and in 6.81” on lefties

              Slider (79.77) breaks down 7.81” from fastball and 5.42” away from lefties

  51. J. Sanchez, SF (11.1 VORP; 158 IP, 90 R): 91.86 MPH, -6.60 MPH

              Fastball (91.86) rides 9.4” and in 5.67” on lefties

              Change (85.21) breaks down 4.22” from fastball and in 6.79” on lefties

  61. Redding, Was (3.1 VORP; 182 IP, 110 R): 91.26 MPH, -8.90 MPH

              Fastball (91.26) rides 9.7” and in 5.86” on righties

              Slider (82.36) breaks down 6.9” from fastball and 2.85” away from righties

  73. A. Miller, Fla (-12.4 VORP; 107.3 IP, 78 R): 93.04 MPH, -4.21 MPH

              Fastball (93.04) rides 9.12” and in 6.56” on lefties

              Change (88.83) breaks down 1.37” from fastball and in 9.28” on lefties

   

  **

   

   91-93 MPH Fastball (rides 9”-10”; in less than 5”) (4)

  (avg. break in: 3.99”; 92.01 MPH)

  43. Myers, Phi (19.3 VORP; 190 IP, 103 R): 91.06 MPH, -5.53 MPH

              Fastball (91.06) rides 9.95” and in 3.07” on righties

              Slider (85.53) breaks down 7.84” from fastball and 2.38” away from righties

  44. Parra, Mil (15.0 VORP; 166 IP, 91 R): 92.38 MPH, -16.72 MPH

              Fastball (92.38) rides 9.95” and in 4.52” on lefties

              Curveball (75.66) breaks down 12.74” from fastball and 4.55” away from lefties

  47. de la Rosa, Col (9.2 VORP; 130 IP, 77 R): 92.81 MPH, -11.89 MPH

              Cutter (92.81) rides 9.03” and in 4.21” on lefties (?)

              Slider (80.92) breaks down 8.52” from cutter and 1.39” away from lefties

  45. Baek, SD (7.7 VORP; 111 IP, 60 R): 91.78 MPH, -5.57 MPH

              Fastball (91.78) rides 9.43” and in 4.17” on righties

              Slider (86.21) breaks down 4.09” from fastball and 1.23” away from righties

   

  **

   

   Fastball and Sinker Pitchers (5)

  (avg. break in: 3.89; 92.10 MPH)

  8. Billingsley, LAD (51.6 VORP; 200.7 IP, 76 R): 92.72 MPH, -1.94 MPH

              Fastball (92.72) rides 9.05” and in 2.38” on righties

              Sinker (90.78) breaks down 2.60” from fastball and in 7.86” on righties

  15. Oswalt, Hou (44.1 VORP; 208.7 IP, 89 R): 93.47 MPH, -1.02 MPH

              Fastball (93.47) rides 8.86” and in 3.93” on righties

              Sinker (92.45) breaks down 2.47” from fastball and in 7.48” on righties

  20. Pelfrey, NYM (39.6 VORP; 200.7 IP, 86 R): 95.04 MPH, -0.67 MPH

              Fastball (95.04) rides 8.9” and in 7.2” on righties

              Sinker (94.37) breaks down 3.11” from fastball and in 9.95” on righties

  40. Moehler, Hou (16.8 VORP; 150 IP, 79 R): 89.12 MPH, +0.29 MPH

              Fastball (89.12) rides 9.97” and in 3.99” on righties

              Sinker (89.41) breaks down 3.39” from fastball and in 7.63” on righties

  55. Pineiro, StL (5.7 VORP; 148.7 IP, 89 R): 89.62 MPH, +0.53 MPH

              Sinker (89.62) rides 5.91” and in 5.83” on righties

              Fastball (90.15) rises 3.19” from sinker and in 1.97” on righties

   

  **

   

  Sinker One (rides 8” to 9” and breaks in more than 6”) (5)

  (avg. break in: 6.96”; 91.15 MPH)

  4. Dempster, ChC (57.5 VORP; 206.7 IP, 75 R): 91.81 MPH, -6.86 MPH

              Sinker (91.81) rides 8.26” and in 6.72” on righties

              Slider (84.95) breaks down 8.18” from sinker and 1.23” away from righties

  36. Looper, StL (25.7 VORP; 199 IP, 101 R): 90.59 MPH, -8.69 MPH

              Sinker (90.59) rides 8.3” and in 7.65” on righties

              Change (81.9) breaks down 7.27” and in 6.81” on righties

  56. Eaton. Phi (-1.9 VORP; 107 IP, 71 R):  90.43 MPH, -6.09 MPH

              Sinker (90.43) rides 8.18” and in 7.32” on righties

              Change (84.34) breaks down 2.14” and in 3.38” on righties

  68. Snell, Pit (-1.9 VORP; 164.3 IP, 107 R): 92.92 MPH, -8.49 MPH

              Sinker (92.92) rides 8.4” and in 6.27” on righties

              Slider (84.43) breaks down 6.13” from sinker and 0.38” away from righties

  74. Backe, Hou (-7.9 VORP; 166.7 IP, 114 R): 89.98 MPH, -6.67 MPH

              Sinker (89.98) rides 8.04” and in 6.86” on righties

              Slider (83.31) breaks down 6.30” from sinker and 1.53” away from righties

   

  **

   

  Sinker Two (rides 7” to 8” and breaks in more than 6”) (6)

  (avg. break in: 8.38”; 89.98 MPH)

  5. Peavy, SD (51.5 VORP; 173.7 IP, 57 R): 93.13 MPH, -8.97 MPH

              Sinker (93.13) rides 7.15” and in 8.49” on righties

              Slider (84.16) breaks down 5.3” from sinker and 3.14” away from righties

  32. R. Johnson, Ari (27.2 VORP; 184 IP, 92 R): 91.52 MPH, -7.86 MPH

              Sinker (91.52) rides 7.76” and in 10.21” on lefties

              Slider (83.66) breaks down 6.18” from sinker and in 0.22” on lefties

  33. Bush, Mil (26.5 VORP; 185 IP, 92 R): 88.38 MPH, -18.93 MPH

              Sinker (88.38) rides 7.17” and in 10.17” on righties

              Curveball (69.45) breaks down 11.95” from sinker and 4.97” away from righties

  49. Francis, Col (10.6 VORP; 143.7 IP, 84 R): 87.22 MPH, -7.96 MPH

              Sinker (87.22) rides 7.77” and in 7.49” on lefties

              Change (79.26) breaks down 2.12” from sinker and in 4.93” on lefties

  57. Duke, Pit (7.4 VORP; 185 IP, 111 R): 89.56 MPH, -15.59 MPH

              Sinker (89.56) rides 7.01” and in 7.79” on lefties

              Curveball (73.97) breaks down 12.26” from sinker and 4.26” away from lefties

  58. P. Martinez, NYM (-2.0 VORP; 109 IP, 70 R): 90.08 MPH, -0.96 MPH

              Sinker (1) (90.08 MPH) rides 7.25” and in 6.13” on righties

              Sinker (2) (89.12 MPH) breaks down 3.83” from sinker (1) and in 8.59” on righties

   

  **

   

  Sinker Three (rides 6”-7” and breaks in more than 6”) (7)

  (avg. break in: 7.01”; 88.97 MPH)

  19. Moyer, Phi (40.3 VORP; 196.3 IP, 85 R): 82.06 MPH, -6.91 MPH

              Sinker (82.06) rides 6.13” and in 9.01” on lefties

              Change (75.15) rises 1.93” from sinker and in 8.2” on lefties

  27. Kuroda, LAD (31.2 VORP; 183.3 IP, 85 R): 92.8 MPH, -8.44 MPH

              Sinker (92.8) rides 6.48” and in 8.34” on righties

              Slider (84.36) breaks down 3.55” from sinker and in 0.53” on righties

   

  35. Lannan, Was (25.1 VORP; 182 IP, 89 R): 88.01 MPH, -7.2 MPH

  Sinker (88.01) rides 6.93” and in 3.87” on lefties                        Slider (80.81) breaks down 5.03” from sinker and 2.35” away from lefties

  39. Marquis, ChC (20.8 VORP; 167 IP, 87 R): 90.89 MPH, -6.59 MPH

              Sinker (90.89) rides 6.48” and in 7.61” on righties

              Slider (84.4) breaks down 3.57” from sinker and 0.87” away from righties

  53. Wolf, SD (4.7 VORP; 119.7 IP, 69 R): 89.06 MPH, -0.13 MPH

              Sinker (1) (89.06) rides 6.27” and in 9.99” on lefties

              Sinker (2) (88.93) rises 2.62” from sinker (1) and in 4.95” on lefties

  64. Kendrick, Phi (-2.9 VORP; 155.7 IP, 103 R): 90.65 MPH, -7.45 MPH

              Sinker (90.65) rides 6.33” and in 8.41” on righties

              Slider (83.4) breaks down 3.12” from sinker and 1.5” away from righties

   

  60. Owings, Ari (-5.8 VORP; 104.7 IP, 73 R): 89.35 MPH, -6.61 MPH

   

  Sinker (89.35) rides 6.93” and in 1.86” on righties

   

  Slider (82.74) breaks down 4.10” from sinker and 1.93” away from righties

   

   

  ** 

   

   

   

   

  Sinker Four (rides below 6” and breaks in more than 6”) (6)

  (avg. break in: 8.30”; 89.46 MPH)

  11. Webb, Ari (50.8 VORP; 226.7 IP, 95 R): 88.61 MPH, -10.48

              Sinker (88.61) rides 1.28” and in 7.22” on righties

              Change (78.13) drops 1.31” from sinker and in 4.83” on righties

  10. Lowe, LAD (49.7 VORP; 211 IP, 84 R): 89.98 MPH, -6.39 MPH

              Sinker (89.98) rides 4.25” and in 9.54” on righties

              Slider (83.59) breaks down 2.14” from sinker and 0.78” away from righties

  13. Hudson, Atl (37.0 VORP; 142 IP, 53 R): 90.72 MPH, -4.83 MPH

              Sinker (90.72) rides 5.08” and in 8.93” on righties

              Slider (85.89) breaks down 1.18” from fastball and in 0.75” on righties

  24. Cook, Col (36.5 VORP; 211.3 IP, 102 R): 91.39 MPH, -7.39 MPH

              Sinker (91.39) rides 5.04” and in 6.89” on righties

              Slider (84) breaks down 2.31” from sinker and 1.13” away from righties

  23. Zambrano, ChC (35.7 VORP; 188.7 IP, 85 R): 91.84 MPH, -1.14 MPH

              Sinker (91.84) rides 4.17” and in 9.57” on righties

              Cutter (90.7) rises 2.96” from sinker and in 2.23” on righties

  42. Maddux, SD (15.0 VORP; 153.3 IP, 80 R): 84.23 MPH, -5.98 MPH

              Sinker (84.23) rides 4.34” and in 7.63” on righties

              Change (78.25) breaks down 0.64” from sinker and 1.79” away from righties

   

  **

   

   88-90 MPH Fastball (rides 10”) (6)

  (avg. ride: 11.22”; avg. break in: 5.32”; 89.38 MPH)

  6. Hamels, Phi (56.3 VORP; 227.3 IP, 89 R): 90.92 MPH, -10.34 MPH

              Fastball (90.92) rides 12.09” and in 2.68” on lefties

              Change (90.58) breaks down 4.06” from fastball and in 7.77” on lefties

  17. Wainwright, StL (33.2 VORP; 132 IP, 51 R): 90.76 MPH, -6.61 MPH

              Fastball (90.76) rides 10.3” and in 5.82” on righties

              Slider (84.15) breaks down 6.22” from fastball and 3.92” away from righties

  25. Lilly, ChC (35.3 VORP; 204.7 IP, 96 R): 88.13 MPH, -5.23 MPH

              Fastball (88.13) rides 11.43” and in 5.98” on lefties

              Slider (82.9) breaks down 7.7” from fastball and 0.31” away from lefties

  46. Olsen, Fla (18.0 VORP; 201.7 IP, 106 R): 88.14 MPH, -6.89 MPH

              Fastball (88.14) rides 11.78” and in 6.27” on lefties

              Change (81.23) breaks down 3.49” from fastball and in 4.78” on lefties

  48. Harang, Cin (15.5 VORP; 184.3 IP, 104 R): 90.31 MPH, -9.04 MPH

              Fastball (90.31) rides 10.57” and in 5.91” on righties

              Slider (81.27) drops 9.22” from fastball and 1.24” away from righties

  66. Villanueva, Mil (15.7 VORP; 108.3 IP, 53 R): 88.01 MPH, -5.57 MPH

              Fastball (88.01) rides 11.13” and in 5.27” on righties

              “Slider” (82.54) breaks down 6.38” from fastball and in 0.61” on righties

   

  **

   

   88-90 MPH Fastball (rides 8-10” and in more than 5”) (6)

  (avg. ride: 9.12”; avg. break in: 6.40”; 89.47 MPH)

  30. W. Rodroguez, Hou (22.4 VORP; 137.3 IP, 65 R): 75.76 MPH, +14.21 MPH

              Curveball (75.76) breaks down 7.41” and 5.65” away from lefties

              Fastball (89.97) rises 16.9” from curve and in 7.11” on lefties

  50. Od. Perez, Was (12.0 VORP; 159.7 IP, 87 R): 89.02 MPH, -6.16 MPH

              Fastball (89.02) rides 8.37” and in 5.68” on lefties

              Slider (82.86) breaks down 4.75” from fastball and 0.81” away from lefties

  63. Hendrickson, Fla (-4.3 VORP; 133.7 IP, 87 R): 88.43 MPH, -14.79 MPH

              Fastball (88.43) rides 9.36” and in 6.99” on lefties

              Curveball (73.64) breaks down 13.09” from fastball and 4.02” away from lefties

  67. Sampson, Hou (14.6 VORP; 117.3 IP, 60 R): 83.93 MPH, +4.74 MPH

              Slider (83.93) rides 2.89” and 0.89” away from righties

              Fastball (88.67) rises 5.13” from slider and in 5.04” on righties

  70. Bergmann, Was (-6.3 VORP; 139.7 IP, 94 R): 90.41 MPH, -5.32 MPH

              Fastball (90.41) rides 9.8” and in 5.87” on righties

              Change (85.09) breaks down 3.86” from fastball and in 2.21” on righties

  72. Gorzelanny, Pit (-11.4 VORP; 105.3 IP, 79 R): 90.32 MPH, -6.86 MPH

              Fastball (90.32) rides 9.67” and in 7.73” on lefties

              Change (83.46) breaks down 5.78” from fastball and in 7.61” on lefties

   

  **

   

   88-90 MPH Fastball (rides 8-10” and in less than 5”) (3)

  (avg. ride: 9.48”; avg. break in: 2.91”; 89.75 MPH)

  16. Maholm, Pit (42.7 VORP; 206.3 IP, 89 R): 90.64 MPH, -13.73 MPH

              Fastball (90.64) rides 8.92” and in 4.72” on lefties

              Curveball (76.91) breaks down 12.61” from fastball and 3.25” away from lefties

  54. Arroyo, Cin (13.1 VORP; 200 IP, 116 R): 74.27 MPH, +15.09 MPH

              Slider (74.27) rides 0.96” and 8.3” away from righties

              Fastball (89.18) rises 8.93” from slider and in 3.67” on righties

  71. Correia, SF (-9.9 VORP; 110 IP, 80 R): 89.43 MPH, -6.92 MPH

              Fastball (89.43) rides 9.64” and in 0.33” on righties

              Slider (82.51) breaks down 9.13” from fastball and 3.95” away from righties

   

  **

   

  -88 MPH Fastball (5)

  (avg. ride: 11.18; avg, break in: 3.64”; 86.18 MPH)

  29. Campillo, Atl (25.8 VORP; 158.7 IP, 74 R): 81.43 MPH, +5.01 MPH

              Slider (81.43) rides 4.85” and 0.79” away from righties

              Fastball (86.44) rises 6.38” from slider and in 4.22” on righties

  31. Young, SD (17.6 VORP; 102.3 IP, 46 R): 87.51 MPH, -9.09 MPH

              Fastball (87.51) rides 12.62” and in 1.04” on righties

              Slider (78.42) drops 8.38” from fastball and 0.48” away from righties

  38. D. Davis, Ari (19.3 VORP; 146 IP, 76 R): 82.38 MPH, +2.34 MPH

              Cutter (82.38) rides 5.53” and in 0.78” on righties

              Fastball (84.72) rises 5.24” from cutter and in 3.37” on lefties

  59. Suppan, Mil (3.6 VORP; 177 IP, 110 R): 87.3 MPH, -3.98 MPH

              Fastball (87.3) rides 9.56” and in 6.19” on righties

              “Cutter” (83.32) breaks down 5.24” from fastball and in 2.45” on righties

  69. Zito, SF (-0.9 VORP; 180 IP, 115 R): 84.92 MPH, -10.52 MPH

              Fastball (84.92) rides 11.7” and in 3.36” on lefties

              Change (74.4) breaks down 6.74” from fastball and in 6.98” on lefties

   

   

  **

  Note: Mistakes made classifying Owings and Lannan as sinker pitchers. Will be edited.

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