While I'm on this kick about pitchers strengthening their arms by pitching smaller workloads more frequently, I'm becoming more and more intrigued at the thought of utilizing a modified four man rotation with multiple swingmen to solidify middle relief.
A perfect example of such a pitching staff -- capable of supporting four starters and three swingmen -- is the 2009 Brewers staff, with Gallardo, Parra, Bush, and Suppan certainly the best candidates for starting on our team, and Looper, Villanueva, and McClung with experience as starters and relievers (in some way or another).
Here's the basic idea. Take Dave Bush. In 2008, Bush pitched in 31 games, starting 29, pitching 185 IP and throwing 2741 pitches (14.82 NP/IP).
Now, the idea of a modified four man rotation would not be to pitch all four starters at full tilt, but rather to utilize their usual pitch workload and simply redistribute it. So, in Bush's case, a redistribution looks like 2741 pitches over 40 games -- instead of 31 -- which amounts to approximately 68 NP/G, or approximately 4.59 IP/G.
That looks pretty rough, but here's the kicker -- the secondary rotation, the rotation of swingmen, would function in a manner similar to a starting rotation, and feature an extended middle reliever on most days (in order to rest guys consistently pitching in relief on two days' rest, the remainder of the bullpen would need to take IP approximately once every 10 games or so to give the swingmen some extra rest).
While most starters pitch between 86 and 91 pitches per start, and then utilize four days of rest, the swingmen would have their workload constructed based on two days' rest -- meaning that their workload would probably stand around 45 pitches (approximately 3 IP of work).
So, in the case of Bush pitching approximately 4 and two-thirds innings, a swingman would then be able to take over and pitch approximately 2 and two/thirds or 3 IP in relief -- thus covering approximately 7 IP of the ballgame. Specialized relievers could then handle the remainder of the game.
The whole point of this exercise is to redistribute pitching workloads and the quality that comes along with those workloads. (1) What would occur if a team stopped concerning themselves with searching for a suitable fifth starter? I do believe there is a qualitative difference between running a rotation 1-4 continuously, versus utilizing a fifth starter consistently. (2) If resources are scarce (in terms of quality 5th starters), those resources should be manipulated in a manner that is advantageous to a team's performance -- it might actually be more useful to pitch certain pitchers as extended swingmen in the bullpen, rather than as fifth starters. (3) The average starting pitcher no longer pitches over 6 innings as it is; redistributing the workload between a team of starters and a team of swingmen would have the advantage of recognizing that fact, changing pitching roles, and subsequently changing middle relief patterns and strategy. (4) As much as teams struggle to find good 5th starters, teams also struggle to find viable middle relievers. By moving low rotation starters -- who might not be best suited as starters themselves -- into the bullpen, the issue of low rotation quality and middle relief stability is simultaneously managed.
The average swingman's workload for this plan would probably not be terribly taxing, either. Over a season that is approximately 180 days long, with extra bullpen rest days thrown in every 10 games or so, the average time period for swingman appearances would be one appearance every 3.6 days. With days off accounted for, even the starters would pitch one appearance approximately every 4.4 days.
With these factors considered, the average swingman workload might look something like 49 G, 131.7 IP, 2107 NP. A fair workload if you factor in the pitcher's previous record as a starter, and factor in pitching endurance and the distribution of smaller pitch workloads, more frequently.
I know this probably strikes some as an awfully bad looking idea, especially since we are conditioned to yearn for the days when starters completed most of their starts, and pitched tons of innings for their respective teams. But the pitching trends are working in the other direction, and rather than rejecting that trend and trying to find four pitchers who can complete over 50% of their games in this era of strategy and increasing athletic ability and training resources, I think that recent trends can be manipulated in the other direction: that of redistributing pitching workloads and SP/middle relief roles entirely.
While it might be against all sentimental value about baseball, it might also be a pretty good way to use a small core of relatively few pitchers to get a team through 7 innings of a ballgame.