Dave Bush had one hell of a 2008 campaign -- his best of his career. Deep in the shadows, though -- behind ERA, behind WHIP, behind W-L, behind all that good stuff, we might be concerned by one simple fact. 2008 was one hell of a lucky season for Dave Bush.

You know that recent obsession with balls-in-play I've written about in the last couple of weeks? Well, the same goes for pitchers: if pitchers change the percentage of their balls-in-play, or the defense behind them changes on those balls in play, everything else can change for the pitcher as well.

To that effect, Bush's 2008 BABIP-against? .238. That's right, .238; a full 5% better than average defensive efficiency. For a pitcher such as Bush, the fact remains that BABIP will be especially important because he does not consistently strike out 8-10 batters per 9 innings. In fact, the 2008 BABIP is all the more significant because his K/9 IP dropped in both 2007 and 2008.

Luckily, we can hang on to a couple of things: (1) Dave Bush doesn't walk anybody. Ever. This will keep a consistent factor in his approach even if his hits fluctuate greatly from year to year; you don't want a pitcher putting a ton of guys on base through things he can control (like walks), when there will be a fluctuating amount of men on base through means that that pitcher cannot control -- defensive support.

So, here goes:

H/9 IP (BABIP)

Career: 9.03 (.282)

2008: 7.93 (.238)

2007: 10.48 (.323)

2006: 8.61 (.286)

2005: 9.38 (.280)

2004: 8.80 (.278)

2008 seems to be the logical shift in a series of volatile years for Bush; while his defensive support was virtually nowhere to be found in 2007, it showed up with flying colors in 2008. Add to that a slightly shifting number of balls in play, and you clearly hit levels that are absolutely all over the place.

A correction might be in order; but let's think positively for a moment.

(1) Bush threw his fastball approximately 3% less frequently in 2008 than in 2007, and nearly 4% less frequently than his career usage of that pitch. By contrast, he distributed those extra pitches to his change up and sinker, rather than his curveball; he used his change up over 2% more frequently than both his 2007 and career usages of that pitch. Similarly, he used his sinker more frequently (FanGraphs calls it a "cutter"), by about 3%, and used his curveball 3% less frequently.

(2) His sinker, curveball, and change up were slower than his 2007 and career velocity averages for those pitches.

Two conclusions: Bush's pitching sequences were notably different in 2008, which probably made him a slightly more deceptive pitcher, especially coupled with shifts in velocity for some of his pitches. When Bush gained mechanical confidence by mid-season, and began relying on his change up (a well-publicized shift by Brewers' media outlets), his results changed for the better -- way, way, better. Bush's change up, anyhow, is a unique pitch -- it is within the velocity range that a slider would serve for a power pitcher; further, it seems to be a change-up off of his sinking fastball and his 4-seam fastball alike (meaning that throwing two different fastball-change up combinations creates two different velocity differentials for batters, and effectively two different outcomes for that change-up; changing off a fastball and changing off a sinker are two different approaches, and there is no reason to suspect that Bush does not use his change up in both ways). 

Bush's defensive luck probably will correct itself in 2009. These things have an odd sort of determinism about them; average defensive efficiency has the sort of powers over pitchers that a vital, creative force has on the universe. What seem to be coincidences probably are not coincidences when the hand of God is entered into the equation; and yet there is a tension in Bush's 2008, between lucky efficiency and noted pitching approach changes.

I suspect the struggle between pitching approach and luck continues in 2009 for Bush; as an optimist, I see great things happening when Bush sticks with his change up. It adds a third velocity level in his pitching approach, between his fastball and curveball, and off of his fastball and sinker. 

And hopefully, it inspires consistently high levels of defensive efficiency.