I've brought up XBH% in recent debates about Alcides Escobar. My simple point with Escobar is that he needs to improve his XBH% -- mostly by hitting more doubles (a kid with his speed should be racking up double his current doubles total) -- in order to become a more consistent and viable threat at the plate. The whole issue is that -- along with BB% -- if Escobar is not a threat to hit for extra bases, nor a threat to lay off pitches that are not strikes, he will become an easy player pitch to, and will not receive the pitches necessary or be able to sustain a consistent hitting base.
My hypothesis has continuously been that hitting for extra bases is crucial for a batter in order to continuously receive a pitching approach that is conducive to drawing walks, hitting for average, and forcing the pitcher to work. Without that threat, the pitcher will be less inclined to be worried about making aggressive mistakes, knowing that the consequences of those mistakes will not result as doubles, triples, or home runs. Forcing a pitcher to work around the batter, throw fewer strikes, and throw fewer fastballs (and therefore fewer pitches that are easier to control) requires (a) discipline, and (b) some approach to drive the ball / some threat to drive the ball.
Now, here is what my position is not saying: (a) XBH focus means swinging for the fences, (b) HR hitters are always more valuable, (c) HR are the most necessary form of XBH to aim for. The whole point, as always, with my offensive positions, is the following: the most productive batters will be the batters who can consistently find their pitch to drive, and drive it. Whether the end result is more hard-hit singles, more doubles, or more walks (due to working counts or being pitched around), the whole issue centers around driving the ball, and picking your pitch to drive.
So, I wanted to see just how productive below average XBH% hitters are. Since I eye-balled the top PA batters -- MLB 400+ PA in 2008, I kept the XBH% cut-off around 33%.
The actual MLB average XBH% was .336 in 2008, and is therefore closer to 34% than 33%. But have you ever tried eye-balling 34%?
The rest is simple: I included PA, AVG/OBP/SLG, overall RC, and RC/G (the average RC/G created by an entire batting order of that player), and then XBH%. Note that RC and OPS (OBP + SLG) are not the same thing. RC also includes SB, CS, GIDP, SF, and SH, so there are other things going on there. So, the exact point is not to equate runs created with XBH%, but perhaps your interpretation of the survey will lean that way. I'm not yet sure that mine does.
I split the list at 4.5 RC/G, because that's roughly the cut-off for your basic league average player. Of the 208 MLB players that accumulated 400 or more PA in 2008, 78 hit fewer than 33% XBH. 43 of those 78 players that hit fewer than 33% XBH managed to average more than 4.5 RC/G. Interestingly, 31 of those 43 players that hit fewer than 33% XBH but averaged at least 4.5 RC/G accumulated 500 or more PA. I'm not sure what this means, but it looks like the group of players that hit fewer than 33% XBH and accumulated between 400 and 500 PA were more marginal players. This probably makes sense, but it looks like the players that accumulated more than 500 PA and hit fewer than 33% were doing enough in the field or at the plate to justify more than 500 PA, which probably explains why most of the players on this list that averaged 4.5 RC/G did so in 500 PA or more; those are the players posting rather strong OBP, stealing bases, or doing something else to make up for the lack of XBH. (As a follow-up point, 31 of the 43 that averaged 4.5 RC/G while hitting fewer than 33% XBH posted an OBP above .340. The non-park-adjusted MLB 2008 OBP was .333).
So, here's the list. Enjoy. I'd be interested to know your conclusions. I'm not sure I've entirely drawn mine. My main thought is that even if a player does not hit an average XBH%, that player will need to hit closer to 30% XBH than 20% XBH, and draw enough walks or simply collect an absurd number of hits in order to maintain a productive spot in the batting order....Of course, you are more than free to disagree with that point and draw your own conclusions. This is a large set of raw data, and as I stated, I have not yet completely digested it.
Enjoy the spaghetti on the wall.
**
C. Jones, Atl (534 PA) .364/.470/.574; 123 RC, 11.1 RC/G .295 XBH%
Mauer, Min (633 PA) .328/.413/.451; 101 RC, 6.9 RC/G .250 XBH%
Damon, NYY (623 PA) .303/.375/.461; 102 RC, 6.8 RC/G .292 XBH%
Giles, SD (653 PA) .306/.398/.456; 103 RC, 6.7 RC/G .327 XBH%
Span, Min (411 PA) ,294/.387/.432; 63 RC, 6.4 RC/G .283 XBH%
Winn, SF (667 PA) .306/.363/.426; 101 RC, 6.3 RC/G .273 XBH%
C. Jackson, Ari (612 PA) .300/.376/.446; 93 RC, 6.3 RC/G .302 XBH%
Ordonez, Det (623 PA) .317/.376/.494; 96 RC, 6.1 RC/G .309 XBH%
Aviles, KC (441 PA) .325/.354/.480; 67 RC, 6.0 RC/G .301 XBH%
DeJesus, KC (577 PA) .307/.366/.452; 85 RC, 5.9 RC/G .277 XBH%
Victorino, Phi (627 PA) .293/.352/.447; 92 RC, 5.8 RC/G .311 XBH%
K. Matsui, Hou (422 PA) .293/.354/.427; 61 RC, 5.8 RC/G .318 XBH%
I. Suzuki, Sea (749 PA) .310/.361/.386; 104 RC, 5.6 RC/G .155 XBH%
R. Martin, LAD (650 PA) .280/.385/.396; 88 RC, 5.6 RC/G .245 XBH%
Hudson, Ari (455 PA) .305/.367/.450; 64 RC, 5.6 RC/G .323 XBH%
C. Guzman, Was (612 PA) .316/.345/.440; 86 RC, 5.5 RC/G .268 XBH%
Polanco, Det (629 PA) .307/.350/.417; 84 RC, 5.3 RC/G .253 XBH%
Iwamura, TB (707 PA) .274/.349/.380; 89 RC, 5.1 RC/G .262 XBH%
Schumaker, STL(594 PA) .302/.359/.406; 77 RC, 5.1 RC/G .215 XBH%
Fukudome, CHC (590 PA) .257/.359/.379; 74 RC, 5.1 RC/G .295 XBH%
Garko, Cle (563 PA) .273/.346/.404; 72 RC, 5.1 RC/G .267 XBH%
Atkins, Col (664 PA) .286/.328/.452; 87 RC, 5.0 RC/G .320 XBH%
Jeter, NYY (668 PA) .300/.363/.408; 85 RC, 5.0 RC/G .218 XBH%
Theriot, CHC (661 PA) .307/.387/.359; 81 RC, 5.0 RC/G .134 XBH%
Zimmerman, Was (466 PA) .283/.333/.442; 61 RC, 5.0 RC/G .322 XBH%
R. Sweeney, Oak (433 PA) .286/.350/.383; 54 RC, 5.0 RC/G .227 XBH%
Crisp, Bos (409 PA) .283/.344/.307; 53 RC, 5.0 RC/G .275 XBH%
J. Lopez, Sea (687 PA) .297/.322/.443; 89 RC, 4.9 RC/G .309 XBH%
Ellsbury, Bos (609 PA) .280/.336/.394; 78 RC, 4.9 RC/G .245 XBH%
G. Anderson, Ana (593 PA) .293/.325/.433; 76 RC, 4.9 RC/G .276 XBH%
M. Young, Tex (708 PA) .284/.339/.402; 88 RC, 4.8 RC/G .273 XBH%
F. Lopez, Was/StL (532 PA) .283/.343/.387; 66 RC, 4.8 RC/G .265 XBH%
A. Ramirez, CWS (509 PA) .290/.317/.475; 66 RC, 4.8 RC/G .316 XBH%
Miles, STL (408 PA) .317/.355/.398; 50 RC, 4.8 RC/G .175 XBH%
DeWitt, LAD (421 PA) .264/.344/.383; 51 RC, 4.8 RC/G .247 XBH%
Loney, LAD (651 PA) .289/.338/.434; 81 RC, 4.7 RC/G .314 XBH%
Y. Escobar, Atl (587 PA) .288/.366/.401; 71 RC, 4.7 RC/G .243 XBH%
Navarro, TB (470 PA) .295/.349/.407; 57 RC, 4.7 RC/G .250 XBH%
Aurillia, SF (440 PA) .283/.332/.413; 54 RC, 4.7 RC/G .279 XBH%
Carroll, Cle (402 PA) .277/.355/.346; 47 RC, 4.7 RC/G .188 XBH%
D. Young, Min (623 PA) .290/.336/.405; 75 RC, 4.6 RC/G .251 XBH%
B. Molina, SF (569 PA) .292/.322/.445; 70 RC, 4.6 RC/G .316 XBH%
Kent, LAD (474 PA) .280/.327/.418; 57 RC, 4.6 RC/G .293 XBH%
Scutaro, Tor (592 PA) .267/.341/.356; 68 RC, 4.5 RC/G .225 XBH%
G. Blanco, Atl (519 PA) .251/.366/.309; 57 RC, 4.5 RC/G .176 XBH%
O. Cabrera, CWS (730 PA) .281/.334/.371; 83 RC, 4.4 RC/G .226 XBH%
A. Pierzynski, CWS (570 PA) .281/.312/.416; 67 RC, 4.4 RC/G .300 XBH%
Figgins, Ana (520 PA) .276/.367/.318; 58 RC, 4.4 RC/G .128 XBH%
Crawford, TB (480 PA) .273/.319/.400; 57 RC, 4.4 RC/G .248 XBH%
Y. Molina, STL (485 PA) .304/.349.392; 56 RC, 4.4 RC/G .185 XBH%
A. Casilla, Min (437 PA) .281/.333/.374; 50 RC, 4.4 RC/G .204 XBH%
A. Cabrera, Cle (418 PA) .259/.346/.366; 47 RC, 4.4 RC/G .286 XBH%
Millegde, Was (587 PA) .268/.330/.402; 68 RC, 4.3 RC/G .286 XBH%
K. Suzuki, Oak (588 PA) .279/.346/.370; 65 RC, 4.3 RC/G .223 XBH%
R. Hernandez, Bal (507 PA) .257/.308/.406; 58 RC, 4.3 RC/G .319 XBH%
A. Jones, Bal (514 PA) .270/.311/.499; 58 RC, 4.2 RC/G .289 XBH%
Bartlett, TB (494 PA) .286/.329/.361; 55 RC, 4.2 RC/G .223 XBH%
I. Rodriguez, NYY/Det (429 PA) .276/.319/.394; 49 RC, 4.2 RC/G .273 XBH%
Barton, Oak (523 PA) .226/.327/.348; 55 RC, 4.1 RC/G .307 XBH%
Pierre, LAD (406 PA) .283/.327/.328; 44 RC, 4.1 RC/G .123 XBH%
Cano, NYY (634 PA) .271/.305/.410; 69 RC, 4.0 RC/G .321 XBH%
Kendall, Mil (587 PA) .246/.324/.324; 59 RC, 3.9 RC/G .268 XBH%
Butler, KC (478 PA) .275/.324/.400; 51 RC, 3.9 RC/G .270 XBH%
Matthews, Ana (477 PA) .242/.319/.357; 49 RC, 3.9 RC/G .291 XBH%
Tejada, Hou (666 PA) .283/.314/.415; 70 RC, 3.8 RC/G .302 XBH%
Renteria, Det (547 PA) .270/.317/.382; 57 RC, 3.8 RC/G .250 XBH%
Taveras, Col (538 PA) .251/.308/.296; 55 RC, 3.8 RC/G .150 XBH%
C. Gomez, Min (614 PA) .258/.296/.360; 63 RC, 3.7 RC/G .255 XBH%
F. Sanchez, Pit (608 PA) .271/.298/.371; 61 RC, 3.7 RC/G .240 XBH%
Izturis, STL (454 PA) .263/.319/.309; 44 RC, 3.7 RC/G .128 XBH%
Keppinger, Cin (502 PA) .266/.310/.346; 48 RC, 3.6 RC/G .238 XBH%
Betancourt, Sea (590 PA) .279/.300/.392; 58 RC, 3.5 RC/G .295 XBH%
E. Brown, Oak (438 PA) .244/.297/.386; 43 RC, 3.5 RC/G .296 XBH%
Gload, KC (418 PA) .273/.317/.348; 40 RC, 3.5 RC/G .208 XBH%
Francoeur, Atl (652 PA) .239/.294/.359; 61 RC, 3.4 RC/G .329 XBH%
M. Cabrera, NYY (453 PA) .249/.301/.341; 42 RC, 3.4 RC/G .204 XBH%
Bourn, Hou (514 PA) .229/.288/.300; 45 RC, 3.2 RC/G .178 XBH%
Johjima, Sea (409 PA) .227/.277/.332; 33 RC, 2.9 RC/G .302 XBH%