Projection: Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks

Most fans don't appreciate Ryan Braun, nor do they appreciate Rickie Weeks. That is not to say that fans don't worship Braun, or do not criticize Braun, or find him to be an incredibly likeable player; it's just to say that they don't appreciate his hitting trends. The severity of his balls-in-play and home run combinations; the severity of his plate discipline; the absolutely raw hitting ability. 

Ryan Braun is not a complete player; he is an incredible hitter, and he does so by freely swinging and crushing extra base hits. 

Rickie Weeks is almost the perfect opposite of Braun. Whereas Braun posts highly respectable and at the very least above average batting averages, Weeks finds his way aboard largely without hitting; whereas Braun posts noticeable SLG and RBI totals, Weeks bats ahead of him, working with OBP and R. Although R is the primary stat of baseball -- the goal is to win a game by scoring runs -- it is actually the derivative of runs, RBI, that fans find more attractive. What fans care about his how many guys a player drove in; but if you happen to be ahead of those drives, and scoring those runs? Well, you didn't drive those runs in.

Ryan Braun will be driving in the runs this season, and Rickie Weeks will be scoring them. Braun will be doing so with gaudy extra base hit totals and a plump batting average; Weeks will be doing so by finding his way on base any way necessary,  stealing bases, and generally playing in the shadows.

What strikes me is that fan opinion on Braun and Weeks are so divided, and Weeks and Braun themselves are almost perfect opposites, because Braun is an excellent primary player, and Weeks is an excellent secondary player. This means simply that everything Braun does well happens to be the most noticeable, and easily recognizable aspects of hitting, and everything that Weeks does is behind the scenes -- plate discipline, taking pitches, perhaps a "passive" approach at the plate, getting hit by pitches, stealing bases, taking walks, etc., is the domain of Weeks. Braun is the opposite -- he has an aggressive plate approach, without discipline, nor without taking pitches, he doesn't get hit by pitches, he does steal bases, but he gets on base largely by hitting, and almost solely by hitting. One hits home runs, the other doesn't, etc. It goes on and on.

And yet, I place these two hitters together because they are so valuable to the Brewers' team. Rickie Weeks is one of the best disciplined hitters on the club, especially in terms of K-to-BB, P-to-PA, and BB%,  as well as more advanced metrics available at FanGraphs. Braun is the team's masher, probably the team's best pure hitter, not in the sense of being a complete hitter, but simply in the sense of purely hitting, or pure hitting ability.

Between these two poles, you find the spectrum of most fan debate about baseball. And yet, both of these players are perfectly complementary to one another, and the Brewers' line up would be lacking one of its important aspects if either were missing.

***

Ryan Braun's hitting trend from 2007 to 2008 makes it difficult to project for 2009, but I see two things emerging: (1) Braun's BB are slowly, slowly increasing, and (2) Braun is putting more balls in play. I see an odd combination of contact hitting + home runs eventually emerging for Braun, but at the moment, I believe he is in the midst of a transition as a hitter; I do not believe it is likely that we will ever see the extreme luck, extreme BIP%, extreme HR, extreme H combination of his 2007 campaign; that's not to say the ROY was not deserving or not incredible, but rather simply to suggest that those hitting elements were so extreme that they will be difficult to repeat in full.

At the moment, I see contact winning out, as long as Braun continues to hit without discipline and swing freely; as those walks slowly rise, and he relies on pure hitting less, I think that it will be more likely to see extreme power numbers stabilize and become the norm.

So, for 2009, I see tons of doubles and singles for Braun, fewer HR, and slightly more walks -- but a noticeable 1% increase from 2007 to 2009, which should not be taken lightly.

Ryan Braun: 656 PA, 449 BIP, 139 BIPH; .685 BIP%, .310 BABIP; 606 AB, 167 H, 44 2B, 8 3B, 28 HR, 135 K/44 BB, 6 HBP; 17/22 SB; 311 TB; .276/.331/.513.

With Weeks, I see more of the same trends continuing -- given his previous BIP% fluctuations, it is difficult to project that for 2009, but I see his BIP% returning to a lower % after a jump from 2007 to 2008; that seems to be his trend (one higher year, one lower year, in terms of BIP%). His role as a "secondary" player -- i.e., getting on base without the primary aid of hitting -- will continue, with walks stabilizing and his HBP remaining steady. A slight correction in luck from 2008 will increase his hitting somewhat, and the result of that hitting will see some 2B and 3B resulting, although I'm not sure that we should expect a HR explosion anytime soon.

Rickie Weeks: 578 PA, 355 BIP, 102 BIPH; .615 BIP%, .288 BABIP; 489 AB, 115 H, 25 2B, 9 3B, 13 HR, 121 K/73 BB, 16 HBP; 24/28 SB; 197 TB; .235/.353/.403.

Comments

 

SeattlePilot said:

I'm not trying to be argumentative or even disagreeable with regards to what you wrote - but if Weeks is all what you wrote why did he get sent down to the minors two years ago and platooned last year?  I do agree that when Weeks is in one of those grooves where he's getting on base a lot there aren't to many guys in MLB that can do more for a team like he can.  It's frustrating because you get a glimpse of what he can do but then boom, off he goes on another long stretch of striking out and not getting on base.  I would love to see Weeks have a good year because if he does the Brewers will win some games they shouldn't have.  Maybe enough of those to get back in the play-offs.  I really do think Weeks will be the key on whether they get back in or not.  

March 5, 2009 9:18 AM
 

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew said:

Jim's got a busy day ahead of him, so you've got me to deal with today. I, too, am a bit busy

March 5, 2009 11:27 AM
 

radio silence said:

Seattle, thanks for the comment.

I think the fact of the matter is, Weeks is still putting things together, and that's why he was sent to the minors -- the simple thing is, he really is a great secondary player, but his lack of primary hitting is what hurts him at times. I think that explains his trips to the minors (not to mention injury recovery, as well).

I certainly agree with you that Weeks putting things together means the Crew winning more games -- I think that as we see him becoming more comfortable with his role, we'll see him thrive more.

Thanks for reading!

March 7, 2009 10:18 AM

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I'm Nicholas Zettel, and I've got the Junkball Blues. All I need for a cure is a sinkerball pitcher here, a curveball specialist there, and a bunch of guys with fastballs that top out in the high-80s. And those days when the knuckleball wasn't a speciality pitch, and pitchers simply kept one in their back pocket? That's what I'm talking about!

I write for Sportsbubbler.com, and this is the research I compile along the way. I love power-speed combo players, garbage time relievers, and the walking medicine cabinets that played baseball in the 1960s and 1970s, and got away with it.

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