Projection: Mike Cameron

One of the interesting things about Mike Cameron is that even though the general consensus seems to be that he spent his career in poor offensive environments, his hitting approach has remained relatively similar, and his results have followed. Cameron is a true outcomes player -- K, HR, BB -- and he is definitely a low BIP% player because of that. And yet, even though he strikes out a ton, and doesn't put the ball in play a lot, he has a lot of strong traits as a batter, traits the Brewers desperately need: he takes a lot of pitches, he walks at a rather high percentage, and therefore frames his bizarre not-in-play offense with notcieably good "discipline" stats.

Check out the best seasons in each of his home-park environments. Notice the relative similarity across multiple years, and different points in his career:

1997 (96 park factor):             446 PA; .599 BIP%, .317 BABIP

1999 (103 park factor):           636 PA; .604 BIP%, .311 BABIP

2001 (94 park factor):             633 PA; .591 BIP%, .319 BABIP

2005 (98 park factor):             343 PA; .621 BIP%, .340 BABIP

2006 (91 park factor):             634 PA; .620 BIP%, .321 BABIP

2008 (100 park factor):           508 PA; .553 BIP%, .296 BABIP

The one main point: in his best seasons, those defined above, his SLG is excellent. His SLG defines his game when he is at his best, making him a very strong power / speed threat (cf. five 20/20 seasons, plus four near-misses).

Following his career, then, I would like to amplify his extreme traits -- striking out a lot, walking a lot, and hitting a lot of home runs -- while noting that his BABIP and BIP% will remain relatively steady. Or at least ought to. Of course, we should note that he did have a rather extreme HR jump in 2008, and that should probably also correct itself. But, in Milwaukee's average hitting environment, it seems as though Cameron will have try very hard to not post a 20/20 season.

Mike Cameron: 608 PA, 353 BIP, 109 BIPH; .564 BIP%, .310 BABIP; 530 AB, 127 H, 28 2B, 8 3B, 26 HR, 151 K/72 BB, 6 HBP; 26/33 SB; 249 TB; .240/.337/.470.

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Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Bernie's Crew said:

Last night, I learned that essays do not write themselves. It is amazing what the human body can do when

March 13, 2009 9:35 AM

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About This Blog

I'm Nicholas Zettel, and I've got the Junkball Blues. All I need for a cure is a sinkerball pitcher here, a curveball specialist there, and a bunch of guys with fastballs that top out in the high-80s. And those days when the knuckleball wasn't a speciality pitch, and pitchers simply kept one in their back pocket? That's what I'm talking about!

I write for Sportsbubbler.com, and this is the research I compile along the way. I love power-speed combo players, garbage time relievers, and the walking medicine cabinets that played baseball in the 1960s and 1970s, and got away with it.

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