The notion that C.C. Sabathia propelled the Brewers into the playoffs, carrying the team on his back, is clouding some fans' perception of the 2009 roster, as well as infiltrating the analysis of many writers taking a stab at the '09 chances. And yet, I cannot help that the entire context of acquiring Sabathia is lost, as well as any notion that the team did anything to make the playoffs before the gentle giant took the scene by storm. This often happens in history -- key contextual differences are paved over as soon as an ideological focus on major outcomes takes hold, obscuring critical engagement with the facts. (This is one of the underrated points of Karl Marx's philosophy of history, found in The German Ideology -- historical accounts cannot help but obscure what happened, due to the simple nature of historical accounts. Historical accounts can never escape the grasp of historiography). 

A few key contextual points are lost on most analysts of the 2009 Brewers, and the impact of the loss of Sabathia:

(1)  The Brewers were within 4 games of the division lead on July 6, and one of the serious Wild Card contenders at that point (they were, in fact, the fourth best team in the NL at that point).

(2) The Brewers outplayed their pythagorean / expected W-L record by 4 games in 2008, but most don't realize that those 4 games were won prior to Sabathia's acquisition by the Brewers. With a record of 49-39, the Brewers outplayed their runs production, which stood at 406 RS / 395 RA, good for approximately 45 expected wins. The fact of the matter is, the Brewers probably don't acquire Sabathia -- or the terms of his acquisition are differents -- if the Brewers stand further than 5-6 games out of the division lead, and slightly behind in the Wild Card race. 

The exact timing of the Sabathia trade requires the Brewers' out-playing their runs production by 4 wins, meaning that several wins were already stolen from the jaws of defeat by the time Sabathia arrived. 

(3) Sabathia received exceptional run support, which impacts the way he was able to pitch, and win ballgames. Most analysts seem to have this idea that the Brewers are doomed because they don't have Sabathia to win any 2-1 games any longer. And yet, only 3 of Sabathia's 17 starts were 1-run victories, and only 3 of Sabathia's 17 starts were victories with only 3-runs of support.

Now, this doesn't take away from the fact that Sabathia was an incredible pitcher for the Brewers. But it does change the way we can analyze the Brewers' likelihood of making the playoffs without Sabathia, noting that under circumstances, run support can make up for pitching, or enhance great pitching (making great pitching ever greater).

I especially want to focus on the idea of stolen games -- I don't think the notion that teams can steal victories from the jaws of defeat is taken seriously as an aspect of analyzing a team's chances of succeeding throughout a particular season. In 2008, the Brewers were especially skilled at winning blown saves -- for instance, the Brewers won 3 of Gagne's 5 blown saves prior to acquiring Sabathia, which were crucial additions to the Brewers' W column:

March 31: @ Chicago, 4-3 victory (10 innings)

April 8: vs. Cincinnati, 3-2 victory (10 innings)

April 22: vs. St. Louis, 9-8 victory (12 innings)

I think these three victories were crucial additions to the Brewers' expected W-L prior to July 6, meaning that of the games that could have contributed most to tipping the balance of luck in favor of the Brewers, these three are probably the most important candidates (not only were they rectified blown saves, but also extra innings victories).

Some other candidates, including important and high-impact game-winning plays:

May 9: vs. St. Louis, 4-3 victory (won in the bottom of the 9th, trailing by one, on a 2-out, 2-run RBI single)

April 19: @ Cincinnati, 5-3 victory (10 innings; won on a double in the top of the 10th)

April 23: vs. Philadelphia, 5-4 victory (won in the bottom of the 8th, trailing by one, on a 2-run home run)

May 1: @ Chicago, 4-3 victory (won in the top of the 9th, overcoming a 2-run defecit)

April 17: @ St. Louis, 5-3 victory (10 innings; won in the top of the 10th on a home run)

If we mix these games in with the blown saves, we can find a good list of games that occurred before July 6, in which the Brewers "stole" a victory; thus increasing their chance of acquiring C.C. Sabathia; thus increasing their luck; thus increasing their W-L total; thus increasing their position in the playoff race.