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April 2009 - Posts
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 The Brewers continue their homestand against the Diamondbacks, coming into town after a series victory against the Cubs, and without their main ace, Brandon Webb. Against a team that is currently out-slugging opponents to victory, the Diamondbacks will offer their mid-rotation, including two of the younger pitchers (Yusmeiro Petit and Max Scherzer).
This is the Brewers’ last series of this homestand, and thus far the home cooking has treated them well this week. The next challenge is to keep going.
Last 5 GS (where available)
Max Scherzer (0-2, 3 GS, 4.91 runs average, 4.90 IP/GS; 0 quality starts) @ Jeff Suppan (1-2, 4 GS, 7.77 runs average, 4.93 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
After easing into various roles for the Diamondbacks in 2008, Scherzer begins 2009 as one of the Diamondbacks’ main starters, and probably one of the better young pitching prospects in baseball. The righty throws in the mid-90s with his fastball, which he can sink or use as a cross-seam fastball, and changes speeds with a change up and a slider. Look for Scherzer to throw the slider and change up at equal percentages, in order to keep the batters off balance.
Suppan started the season poorly, but recovered with two strong starts – even if the second start was only an innings-eating start (6 IP, 4 R). The veteran apparently used an extra off-day after his second start to work an extra bullpen session, and it’s unclear whether that session spurred his improvement. Nevertheless, Suppan is this team’s elder statesman on the rotation, and he should be expected to improve, make adjustments, and eat innings for the Brewers’ rotation.
Jon Garland (2-1, 4 GS, 5.83 runs average, 6.18 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)@ Manny Parra (0-4, 4 GS, 7.46 runs average, 4.83 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
Garland finds himself in a new league, but doing much of the same. The righty is the Diamondbacks’ innings eating pitcher, and thus far he has seen mixed results on the mound. At the very least, he will rack up IP for a young staff, which at the moment is without ace Brandon Webb.
When it rains, it pours – and so it goes with Parra. The lefty simply struggles to pitch efficiently thus far in 2009, resulting in extended innings and relatively short outings. There still seems to be a disjoint between Parra’s stuff and potential and his actual results; the lefty simply needs to pitch aggressively with his fastball (which can work in the low-to-mid-90s), repeat his mechanics, and finish innings when he has the opportunity to close the door on opponents.
Dan Haren (2-3, 5 GS, 1.54 runs average, 7.00 IP/GS; 5 quality starts) @ Braden Looper (2-0, 4 GS, 2.86 runs average, 5.50 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)
Talk about tough losses! Haren has 3 losses simply due to a lack of run support, adding some early 1-run losses to his record. Thus far, the righty ace is working without his counterpart, with stunning results. He is utilizing his split-fingered fastball, curveball, and cutter almost excessively, throwing his fastball under 60% of the time (according to FanGraphs). Haren pitches aggressively, and has the off-speed weapons to keep hitters off balance, and if one of those complementary pitches is not coming, another is almost certainly on its way.
Looper seems to be on autopilot. Even during his last start – the “worst” start of his 2009 campaign thus far – Looper kept the Brewers in the game with his effort, getting out of a ton of trouble to consistently limit the damage. Pitching in trouble as consistently as Looper does might not be ideal, but thus far the veteran is showing that he knows what he’s doing.
Yusmeiro Petit (0-2, 4 G, 3 GS, 9.74 runs average, 3.93 IP/G; 0 quality starts) @ Dave Bush (1-0, 5 G, 4 GS, 4.85 runs average, 5.20 IP/G; 3 quality starts)
The Diamondbacks’ young junkballer simply has not been able to put it together for the Diamondbacks thus far in 2009, serving his usual role of swingman extraordinaire. The righty throws his fastball even less frequently than Dan Haren, instead opting to throw both his change up and slider nearly 25%, each! Look for Petit to pitch in the mid-80s with his fastball, and attempt to keep hitters off balance with his main off-speed weapons; he certainly will not look to his fastball as a major weapon.
Bush finally had a tough outing, perhaps a tough luck outing. The righty worked through some defensive efficiency problems, and a barrage of hits by the Pirates, but was unable to limit the damage. The righty settled for a no-decision, and thus far has served as one of the Brewers’ best pitchers, perhaps second only to Yovani Gallardo. Look for Bush to change speeds early in the count, and start batters with aggressive, breaking ball or off-speed strikes.
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Milwaukee Brewers Team True Outcomes (10-10, 94 RS, 96 RA) April 29, 2009 (10-10):
Batting (781 PA): 28 HR, 86 BB, 158 K (15 HBP); .635 BIP%
Pitching (747 PA): 21 HR, 87 BB, 136 K (12 HBP); .669 BIP%
April 14, 2009 (2-6, 32 RS, 49 RA): Batting (276 PA): 8 HR, 65 K, 37 BB (6 HBP); .580 BIP%
Pitching (278 PA): 11 HR, 45 K, 35 BB (7 HBP); .647 BIP% If you notice, since April 14 the home runs have really starting flying for the Brewers -- in the last 12 games (8-4), they have hit 20 HR, compared to 10 HR hit by the opposition. That is the difference for the Brewers, who are not striking out as many batters with their pitching staff, and are basically walking at levels equivalent to their walks allowed.
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Rickie Weeks is slugging like crazy thus far, but I noticed that it is taking away from some of his other OBP skills -- such as walking (he is walking less than 4% of his PA, down from 12% of the time in 2008), and pitches seen (he is seeing 3.66 NP/PA thus far, down from 4.14 NP/PA in 2008). By extension -- perhaps because he is simply on base less -- he is also running much less frequently. In 2008, Weeks attempted to steal against 13% of his times on base (H+BB+HBP); thus far in 2009 he is only attempting to steal against 8% of his times on base. This is all leading to less runs productivity. And this is not some "OBP is superior" rant. The whole point is that OBP indicates a certain set of skills, especially with a player like Weeks, who usually does secondary things very well. Now Weeks is doing a lot of primary things very well (AVG, SLG, XBH%, for instance), but he has not clicked with the things that made him a valuable lead off man with the Brewers the last two years. Here's a simple example, using runs created, of the cut-off / breaking point between OBP / SLG (assuming 0 SB, GIDP, SF, etc., for now): 600 PA, 210 times on base, 535 AB; 145 H, 60 BB, 5 HBP; 28 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR; 237 TB; .271/.350/.443; 88.9 RC
600 PA, 180 times on base, 565 AB; 145 H, 30 BB, 5 HBP; 35 2B, 3 3B, 35 HR; 291 TB; .257/.300/.515; 90.0 RC
Where a player gets on base approxiately 5% less frequently, that player will have to compensate with much more slugging -- by aproximately 7%. In Weeks' case (assuming equal GDP, SB, etc.)
2008 (actual): 560 PA, 191 times on base, 475 AB; 111 H, 66 BB, 14 HBP; 22 2B, 7 3B, 14 HR; 189 TB; 19/24 SB; 1 SH, 4 SF, 5 GDP; 72.2 Runs Created
2009 (projected): 560 PA, 175 times on base, 519 AB; 134 H, 21 BB, 20 HBP; 20 2B, 0 3B, 27 HR; 235 TB; 19/24 SB; 1 SH, 4 SF, 5 GDP; 76.3 Runs Created 2009 (w/actual SB ratios): 560 PA, 175 times on base, 519 AB; 134 H, 21 BB, 20 HBP; 20 2B, 0 3B, 27 HR; 235 TB; 7/13 SB; 0 SH, 0 SF, 7 GDP; 72.1 Runs Created
Thus far, Weeks' productivity, overall, over 162 games, would be almost exactly similar to his 2008 runs production (against my initial suspicions); but yet, look at the importance that good, frequent baserunning brings to Weeks -- over the course of the season, that's probably worth just about a handful of runs.
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 Now, this isn’t so bad, is it?
After a perfectly panicked start, sending their fans straight to their shrinks, the beloved Brewers returned to form away from home, posting their first consecutive series victories of 2009. The Brewers did so by posting a more even runs differential on the road; they scored 37 runs over the nine-game trip, and allowed 34 runs.
Even better, subtracting the 11-4 blowout in Philly, the Brewers posted a 33-23 advantage, and won 4 of 7 games that stood within 3 runs (1-3 in one-run games, 2-0 in two-run games, and 1-0 in three-run games). The Brewers were able to accomplish this by playing a more flexible style of baseball, which featured timely hitting, power hitting, and of course, good pitching.
All in all, it’s good to be home, especially after the road treated the Brewers kindly.
Last 4 GS (where available):
Jeff Karstens (1-0, 2 GS, 3.60 runs average, 5.00 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Braden Looper (2-0, 3 GS, 2.12 runs average, 5.67 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)
After coming over from the Yankees in a trade, Karstens is making the transition to become a serviceable middle rotation pitcher for the Pirates. Without the hype or stuff of the Yankees’ other prospects, Karstens gets by in the National League switching up his pitches, mostly featuring his fastball, slider, and change up thus far in 2009. The right-hander has a good chance to build his game while pitching for the Pirates’ (surprising) rotation, and that opportunity pays all the better given the Pirates’ current start to the season.
Once again, Looper takes the mound at Miller Park, but this time he is pitching in front of a team that is suddenly putting things together at the plate and in the field. The Brewers’ middle rotation righty has been just what the doctor ordered thus far, pitching quality starts and helping to keep the Brewers in a position to win each of his starts. This might be exactly what one expects from a middle rotation, veteran sinkerballer, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not exciting to watch a solid, professional pitcher take the mound and consistently execute his game plan.
Paul Maholm (3-0, 4 GS, 2.36 runs average, 6.68 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Dave Bush (1-0, 4 G, 3 GS, 3.86 runs average, 5.25 IP/G; 3 quality starts)
If he keeps this up, Maholm will no longer be one of the National League’s best kept secrets. An under-the-radar ace in 2008, Maholm is following up that campaign in spades, mixing up his breaking and off-speed pitches, and hiding that fastball as much as possible. Maholm is probably one of the best examples in baseball of a left-hander who can throw anything in any count, for a strike, and therefore keep his fastball as a weapon, even if it isn’t the hardest fastball on the planet. Keep an eye on this kid.
After a serious no-hit bid, Bush returns to Milwaukee with his approach and game in full working order. The Brewers sinkerballer is working consistent quality starts for the Brewers, asserting himself as the staff’s de facto veteran ace. Bush will not ever be a pitcher that blows batters away, but he is slowly moving from a consistent pitcher that will eat innings to become a consistent pitcher that will eat quality innings. According to FanGraphs, the righty is accomplishing that with a cutter that features more prominently in his arsenal than at any point in his career. This is in addition to his other fastballs, curve, and change.
Ian Snell (1-2, 4 GS, 5.32 runs average, 5.50 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 4 GS, 3.71 runs average, 6.68 IP/GS; 3 quality starts)
So far, so good – sort of. Snell’s 2009 campaign is looking slightly better than his 2008 season thus far, as the one-time ace-in-training looks to find the results to accompany his electric fastball and slider combo. There was a time, it seemed, that Snell was unquestionably the best pitcher in the Pirates’ young core; now it seems as though he is working to function as a strong middle rotation option. Snell is featuring a third pitch more prominently this season, which allows him to lay off of the fastball / slider combo a bit, which should aid his ability to keep batters off balance.
Gallardo takes the mound after pitching his first career complete game, a strong effort executed with incredible efficiency – the righty threw just over 100 pitches to complete his effort, and set the team on the right track in Houston. One of Gallardo’s strengths – which I consistently mention here – was on full display during his complete game bid, and that is his ability to consistently mix pitches, and do so for strikes. The youngster prominently featured his fastball, and used both his curveball and slider almost equally, which helped him to work at several different velocity levels throughout the game; he consistently worked between 93, 90, 85, and 80 MPH, with control, retiring Astros batter with relative ease.
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Congrats to Yovani Gallardo for his first career complete game last night, a fantastic effort against the Astros in which he prominently featured his fastball, curveball, and slider, consistently working at several velocity levels (at 93+ and the 90 MPH range with his fastball, at 85 MPH with his change up and slider, and at 80 MPH, mostly with his curveball). My reading of his breakdown, according to MLB GameDay pitch f/x, is something like 65 fastballs, 19 curveballs, 15 sliders, 2 change ups, and 3 untracked / unknown.
This is one of Gallardo's best characteristics as a pitcher. He can afford to keep his 93 MPH fastball in his back pocket with two strong breaking pitches and a change up to boot. He can finesse his fastball up there, pitching it like a two-seamer, and he can also rush it up there with pretty strong movement. Gallardp is already showing his potential to be a pitcher in the truest sense of the word.
Here is how Gallardo's outing compares with other pitchers who completed their first career CG with the Brewers. By my count, there are 48-such pitchers. The last 10 Brewers' first career complete games are underlined; Gallardo's CG was the first since Chris Capuano's first career CG on April 30, 2006.
Here are the top ten, ranked by Game Score:
1. Chris Bosio (August 28, 1987): 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 8 K/3 BB (88 GSc).
2. Cal Eldred (September 13, 1992): 9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 12 K/1 BB (86 GSc). 3. Wayne Franklin (May 21, 2003): 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 K/2 BB (86 GSc).
4. Bob Gibson (September 15, 1984): 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K/5 BB (85 GSc).
5. Jeff D’Amico (June 23, 1997): 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 K/0 BB (85 GSc). 6. Chris Capuano (April 30, 2006): 9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 6 K/0 BB (83 GSc).
7. Teddy Higuera (May 3, 1985): 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 K/1 BB (82 Gsc). 8. Ben Sheets (May 29, 2001): 9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 K/1 BB (79 GSc).
9. Jim Colborn (July 16, 1972): 9 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 K/2 BB (79 GSc).
10. Jim Slaton (June 24, 1971): 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 K/4 BB (78 GSc).
And, the remainder of the list:
11. Larry Anderson (September 28, 1975): 9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 K/2 BB (78 GSc).
12. Ed Sprague (June 26, 1974): 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K/2 BB (78 GSc).
13. Angel Miranda (August 7, 1993): 9 IP, 6 H,1 R, 10 K/3 BB (78 GSc).
14. Wes Obermueller (September 25, 2004): 9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 3 K/1 BB (77 GSc). 15. Victor Santos (April 22, 2005): 9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 K/0 BB (77 GSc). 16. Yovani Gallardo (April 24, 2009): 9 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 7 K/0 BB (76 GSc).
17. Juan Nieves (May 6, 1986): 9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 4 K/5 BB (74 GSc).
18. Scott Karl (October 1, 1995): 9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2K/0 BB (73 GSc).
19. Larry Sorenson (June 24, 1977): 9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 K/3 BB (73 GSc).
20. Andy Replogle (May 13, 1978): 9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 K/2 BB (73 GSc).
21. Eduardo Rodriguez (July 7, 1973): 9 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 6 K/3 BB (72 GSc).
22. Jaime Cocanower (October 1, 1983): 9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 K/0 BB (72 GSc).
23. Steve Woodard (April 23, 1999): 9 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 5 K/1 BB (71 GSc). 24. Matt Kinney (June 27, 2003): 9 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 4 K/1 BB (70 GSc).
25. Kevin Kobel (May 12, 1974): 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 K/0 BB (69 GSc).
26. Tom Filer (May 29, 1988): 9 IP, 5 H 2 R, 2 K/2 BB (69 GSc).
27. Gary Ryerson (June 28, 1972): 9 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 5 K/0 BB (68 GSc).
28. Bill Travers (June 24, 1975): 9 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 5 K/2 BB (68 GSc).
29. Jerry Augustine (September 27, 1975): 9 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 4 K/1 BB (68 GSc).
30. Bob McClure (September 1, 1980): 9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 K/4 BB (68 GSc).
31. Ricky Bones (August 8, 1993): 9 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 4 K/3 BB (68 GSc).
32. Bill Parsons (April 13, 1971): 9 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 6 K/6 BB (67 GSc).
33. Moose Haas (May 13, 1977): 9 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 7 K/4 BB (66 GSc).
34. Barry Cort (May 3, 1977): 9 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 5 K/1 BB (65 GSc).
35. Don August (June 12, 1988): 9 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 4 K/2 BB (63 GSc).
36. Chuck Porter (June 20, 1983): 8 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 K/1 BB (61 GSc).
37. Brian Clutterbuck (April 25, 1989): 9 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 K/0 BB (60 GSc).
38. Mark Knudson (August 17, 1987): 9 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 2 K/0 BB (59 GSc). 40. Jose Mercedes (June 26, 1997): 8 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 5 K/2 BB (59 GSc).
41. Bill Wegman (May 3, 1986): 9 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 3 K/0 BB (58 GSc).
42. Rafael Novoa (August 5, 1993): 8 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 K/1 BB (58 GSc). 43. Allen Levrault (May 30, 2001): 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K/0 BB (58 GSc).
44. Skip Lockwood (May 20, 1970): 8 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 4 K/1 BB (55 GSc).
45. Gary Beare (September 7, 1976): 9 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 8 K/2 BB (55 GSc).
46. Mike Birkbeck (May 17, 1987): 8 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 K/3 BB (55 GSc).
47. Steve Sparks (June 12, 1995): 9 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 K/4 BB (55 GSc).
48. Tom Hausman (August 1, 1975): 8 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 K/1 BB (54 GSc).
Gallardo's control is his characteristic, and as you can see, he has one of the best K/BB ratios of pitchers who registered their first career CG with the Brew Crew. Here are the best "control" games of the list, noted by posting at least a 4/1 K/BB ratio:
2. Cal Eldred (September 13, 1992): 9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 12 K/1 BB (86 GSc).
5. Jeff D’Amico (June 23, 1997): 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 K/0 BB (85 GSc). 6. Chris Capuano (April 30, 2006): 9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 6 K/0 BB (83 GSc).
7. Teddy Higuera (May 3, 1985): 9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 K/1 BB (82 Gsc).
15. Victor Santos (April 22, 2005): 9 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 K/0 BB (77 GSc). 16. Yovani Gallardo (April 24, 2009): 9 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 7 K/0 BB (76 GSc). 23. Steve Woodard (April 23, 1999): 9 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 5 K/1 BB (71 GSc). 24. Matt Kinney (June 27, 2003): 9 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 4 K/1 BB (70 GSc).
27. Gary Ryerson (June 28, 1972): 9 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 5 K/0 BB (68 GSc).
29. Jerry Augustine (September 27, 1975): 9 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 4 K/1 BB (68 GSc).
34. Barry Cort (May 3, 1977): 9 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 5 K/1 BB (65 GSc).
36. Chuck Porter (June 20, 1983): 8 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 K/1 BB (61 GSc). 43. Allen Levrault (May 30, 2001): 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K/0 BB (58 GSc).
44. Skip Lockwood (May 20, 1970): 8 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 4 K/1 BB (55 GSc).
45. Gary Beare (September 7, 1976): 9 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 8 K/2 BB (55 GSc).
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