|
|
April 2009 - Posts
-
After a strong series showing in Philadelphia, resulting in the first series victory of the year for the Brewers, Milwaukee heads to Houston to build on their first resounding success of the season.
The crucial feature of the Brewers’ consecutive victories in Philadelphia can be found in the relationship between hitting and pitching. Where the Brewers scored in bursts, providing ample support, the pitching held the Phillies’ powerful offense at bay with two consecutive quality starts. One of the issues thus far is the Brewers’ inability to work consistently in each aspect of the game; and yet, as they displayed in 2008, even if this is a streaky team, it is nevertheless a powerful team when everything gets going. The Brewers managed to remain white hot for nearly four months in 2008; we are currently seeing glimpses of a team that could be on the verge of the very same.
A Trojan Horse awaits in Houston, providing a good test for the Brewers’ offense: two of the Brewers’ best pitchers face the Astros’ low rotation, and injury-recovery projects.
Yovani Gallardo (1-1, 3 GS, 4.57 runs average, 5.90 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Felipe Paulino (0-0, 1 GS, 0.00 runs average, 6.00 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
After a tough start in Cincinnati, Gallardo got back on track in New York, pitching 6 shutout innings in a no-decision against the Mets. The Brewers’ young ace-in-training is putting things together well, although some control problems keep his pitch totals high, and therefore limit his ability to work deep into games. Thus far, Gallardo threw more than 100 pitches in each of his starts, a mark of relative inefficiency. One of the righty’s best attributes is his ability to pitch backwards, but this trait can hurt his efficiency when he is not pitching at his best.
Paulino will make his second start of the season, a comeback season after a injury-shortened-2008 campaign. The right-hander looks to regain his spark as one of the Astros’ top arms, once projected as a member of the Astros’ farm system elite. Paulino managed to throw hard in his debut, averaging a fastball around 95 MPH, and the righty remains largely a two-pitch pitcher, featuring a slider to complement that hard fastball.
Jeff Suppan (1-2, 3 GS, 8.56 runs average, 4.57 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Mike Hampton (1-1, 3 GS, 3.12 runs average, 5.77 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)
In a start that has a feeling of one of the best match-ups of 2001, Suppan looks to capitalize on his quality start against the Mets, during which he recovered from a rough two game stretch to start the season. According to FanGraphs, Suppan is relying on his fastball much more frequently in 2009 than 2008, a pitch that Suppan does not necessarily need to work off of in order to pitch with success. However, it might help the righty to work with harder pitches when his sizeable secondary arsenal is not working. With an approach that usually features any pitch at any time, a good fastball might become Suppan’s best change up.
Hampton is fast working to become a respectable MLB ace, now that he is clear of his contractual debacle that continually dogged him for the past eight years. If he keeps up his early season results, fans will quickly change their opinion of the lefty, who relies on pinpoint control and changing speeds to executive his game plan. If Hampton pitches this way all season, the Astros will have themselves one of the serious coups of the off-season, following a $120 million contract with a 1-year, $2 million commitment.
Manny Parra (0-3, 3 GS, 8.16 runs average, 5.77 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Russ Ortiz (1-0, 4 G, 2 GS, 5.93 runs average, 3.43 IP/GS; 0 quality starts)
Parra reverted to his shaky-side in Philadelphia, digging himself an early hole and failing to recover. The lefty looks to have the same issues that plagued him last year: inefficient pitch workloads, and early season inconsistency. Both of these issues could hurt a young pitcher that displayed some stamina issues last year. Parra seems to have the stuff necessary to pitch successfully in the bigs, and now it is time to see how he responds to adversity, bad starts, and the chance to pitch consistently strong outings early in a season. He had that chance in Philadelphia thus far, which failed to materialize; now he has a chance to recover from that start.
Ortiz is the second Astros pitcher in this series that missed substantial time in 2008; the righty change-up artist missed the entire 2008 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, which followed a string of arm issues in 2007. How will the righty recover from the procedure, in his first significant playing time in well over a year? The junkballer now has a good chance to improve on his previous performance; now it is a matter of delivering, and perhaps becoming one of the best surprises of 2009.
-
One run losses (4): vs. Cubs, vs. Reds, vs. Mets (2). Runs: Brewers 15, Opposition 19.
One run wins (1): vs. Cub. Runs: Brewers 4, Opposition 3. Two-Three run losses (1): vs. Cubs. Brewers 5, Opposition 8.
Two-Three run win (3): vs. Giants, vs. Mets, vs. Phillies. Brewers 11, Opposition 5.
Four+ run losses (4): vs. Giants (2), vs. Reds, vs. Phillies. Brewers 12, Opposition 34. Four+ run wins (1): vs. Reds. Runs: Brewers 9, Opposition 3. The Brewers are having a tough season because along with close losses, they are simply losing in too many games in which they are completely out of the running. The opposition has an advantage in both one-run games (4 opposition wins to 1 Brewers win) and four+ run games (4 opposition wins to 1 Brewers win). The Brewers are winning in two-three run games, which is a good thing -- in those four games, the Brewers allowed only 13 runs, scoring 16. There is hope in this regardl the Brewers have shown some ability to win in close, low-scoring games. And yet, the real disappointment, it seems, is those one run games. Look at the runs scored and allowed; in four one-run games, the Brewers scored 19 runs, the opposition 22 runs. 19 runs in any four games is a fine offensive output, and this is where the pitching staff comes in. Although they should be applauded for winning 3-of-4 two-three run games, where the average runs scored by opponents is under 4, the real issue is this: The Brewers are allowing more than 5 runs per game in one-run games, and more than 7 runs per game in four+ run games. Something has to give here; it's understandable that the Brewers will get whipped from time to time; it happens with every team. But the trouble is, if you're getting whipped when you allowed 7 runs per game, you've got to pull it together and win the games where your offense consistently scores over 4 runs (as in the one-run games). Right now it's easy to say that both the one-run games and the four+ run games are both killing the Crew, but here's the balance -- when you lose big, you need to win the close games. If you're losing the very close, one-run games, you need to win big. The Brewers are doing neither right now, despite appropriate runs output in most games -- the Brewers have scored 4 or more runs in 10 of 14 games. A real tough stat: in four of their losses, the Brewers have scored 5 or more runs.
-
You might call this a mirror.
When the Brewers are facing questions about scoring runs and allowing runs, and generally playing a brand of baseball without many noteworthy trends that are worth repeating, the best medicine is to face a foe with exactly the same issues. The Phillies are in the difficult boat of allowing more runs than they scored (moreso than the Brewers, even), losing at home, and simply playing ball without the results that their talent-level would suggest.
The suddenly-quality Brewers rotation heads into Philly to play a shaky Phillies rotation, with a questionable ace, and some mid-rotation problems. This is a series of potential; either offense could explode (like they’re supposed to), either rotation could revert to their norms (good or bad?), and either team could finally “click.”
If anything, this series should provide ample commentary on early season baseball. Here are two highly competitive teams from 2008, perhaps among playoff favorites in 2009 (depending upon who you ask), meeting for their only series in Philadelphia, their only meeting until late September; meeting with subpar records, neither team firing on all (or any?) cylinders. If anything outlines the patience the baseball season requires, this is it; of course, if you don’t buy that, maybe this series is simply documentation of two falling stars.
Last 3 GS (where available)
Manny Parra (0-2, 2 GS, 6.97 runs average, 5.15 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Joe Blanton (0-1, 2 GS, 9.00 runs average, 5.00 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
After a rocky opener, Parra pulled himself together during his second start, producing his first quality start of the season. This quality start is promising, if only because it comes much earlier than his first quality start of 2008 (May 14). Parra’s challenge in Philly’s bandbox will be to pitch aggressively with his fastball, as walks will hurt even more in a home-run ballpark. The next for the young lefty – after recovering early in the season from a bad start – will be to pitch consecutive quality starts early in the season (by comparison, his initial consecutive quality starts did not come until May 30-June 4 in 2008).
Blanton accomplished his own early-season “comeback,” returning to pitch a quality start after a rough season opener. The right-hander looks to eat innings for the Phillies’ middle rotation, and provide a consistent performance level, working around his upper-80s/low-90s fastball, and meat-and-potatoes secondary arsenal. Look for the righty to sneak in some cutters along with his fastball, and he is also featuring his slider more prominently than in seasons past. His average fastball velocity is 88 thus far.
Braden Looper (1-0, 2 GS, 3.27 runs average, 5.50 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Cole Hamels (0-1, 2 GS, 11.17 runs average, 4.85 IP/GS; 0 quality starts)
So far, so good. Looper is picking up in 2009 just where 2008 left him – producing quality middle rotation innings. No frills, nothing thrilling, except for the consistent expectation of solid outings, keeping the team in games, and giving his team a chance to win throughout middle rotation starts. According to FanGraphs, Looper is featuring a splitter as his most prominent secondary pitch, complementing his upper-80s fastball. Looper is on his way to another strong season if he keeps the consistent results coming, and he will have a chance to once again prove that he is a top NL mid-rotation starter.
Hamels’ first two starts are not what the Doctor ordered; amidst elbow issues and injury concerns, the Phillies’ ace – one of the best up-and-coming aces in all of baseball – delivered two subpar outings. His average velocity is down, and he is allowing more than 2 hits per inning (on average). The Phillies’ pitching staff will go as Hamels go, as they do not have another arm with Hamels’ skill level, stuff, control, etc. If their ace cannot return to his previous form, the staff will require an unlikely hero from an unlikely cast of characters.
Dave Bush (0-0, 3 G, 2 GS, 5.40 runs average, 4.43 IP/G; 2 quality starts) @ Brett Myers (1-1, 3 GS, 5.03 runs average, 6.57 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
For fans wondering about Bush’s ability to continue his successful 2008 campaign, the early results are promising. The Brewers’ beloved sinkerballer is working the quality start machine, pitching steady outings, pitching relatively deep into games, and recording outs accordingly. The only area of concern is walks, which is an odd trend for a pitcher who does not walk anyone. Bush has his work cut out for him; between the high-ceiling for Yovani Gallardo, the electric stuff of Manny Parra, and the middle rotation innings eaters, Bush is “the answer;” that is, the crucial factor for Brewers rotation success, with a chance to continue his 2008 success and turn the corner as a consistent quality MLB starter.
Once again, Myers is the center of the Phils’ rotation, working passable outings while a good portion of the remaining rotation struggles (especially their ace). Myers is the best candidate to possibly fill in as “de facto ace” should Hamels troubles continue, and his good start is promising in that regard. The righty features enough tricks in the book to keep hitters off guard, switching between two- and four-seam fastballs, and his standard 12-to-6 curve, among other secondary pitches.
-
After completing their obligations to Capitol Records, the Dandy Warhols capitalized on their own creative empire-in-progress, built up around their modern-day Factory. The Odditorium is a rehearsal space, studio, film production center, and all-around artistic and creative control center for the amorphous rock band; the Dandys started their own record label -- Beat The World Records -- around this studio, and released their sixth (official) studio record through this set up. Earth to the Dandy Warhols was the Dandys' first independent record since Rule O.K. (released almost 15 years ago), and the band released in through Beat The World Records on their website, through a yearly subscription service (which also featured presale tickets without standard fees, as well as music updates throughout the year). This past week, the band released their "April Subscription Update Media Bundle," which features nine gems -- seven audio tracks based around a KCRW radio show recorded in the Odditorium's rehearsal space, and two based around a Livewire show. Through these tracks, the band covers over half of Earth to the Dandy Warhols, offering interpretations and representations of that album's spacey, contemporary psychedelic tracks. When Earth to the Dandy Warhols was released, it received skeptical reviews by jargon-favoring reviewers, reviewers who were concerned more with which boxes a psychedelic band should fit in -- rather than which boxes a psychedelic band should tear apart. The Dandys were apparently amiss for drowning their record in effect-upon-effect, utilizing massive studio trickery to create a larger-than-life rock sound. The record is huge; it sounds rather like Physical Graffiti as a dance record. If anything, the record exposed the blindspot in hipster reviewers' psychedelic tastes -- the prejudice is against big 1970s rock, funk, and new wave, the odd side of psychedelic, and the preference is towards the organic, garagey, buzzy psychedelic of the 1960s. The KCRW sessions offer a view inside the songs, revealing stripped down live recordings, where the Dandys are at their best: picking and choosing the most powerful parts to present in a live performance. This is one of their best attributes; where layers upon layers upon layers veil their wonderfully meandering records, creating decidedly atmopsheric recordings, the band picks the most powerful parts live, revealing a different aspect of their creative vision. In case you forgot, the Dandys are a rock'n'roll band. These KCRW recordings feature especially sharp distorted passages, jangly clean guitar, endless delay and reverb, bludgeoning percussion and their live trademark -- deep, rumbling synthesizer bass. "The World The People (Come On)" spins The Byrds' "So you want to be a rock'n'roll star" for the Twenty-First Century; "Mission Control" receives a make over, with a completely different backbone for dancing live; "Welcome to the Third World" sparkles with blissful funk. "And Then I Dreamt of Yes" is angelic, featuring deep, atmospheric guitar passages and beautiful, soft vocals. The final songs, "Love Song," "Mis Amigos," and "The Legend of the Last Outlaw Trucker" are the most jangly, rumbling, straightforward rock pieces of the collection, both rhythmic and rowdy. These recordings showcase what careful listeners have known since Welcome to the Monkey House and Odditorium; the Dandy Warhols are updating psychedelic rock -- in the vein of the Byrds' "technological" tradition of folk, pop, and country psychedelic -- according to the confines of new wave dance music, promising effected guitars alongside synthesizer bass, incorporating the droning and reptitive aspects of psychedelic in a new arena. This project challenges listeners through meandering songs and free-studio creativity that is sometimes interpreted as "excessive" by critics; and yet, isn't excess -- excess for the senses, and for the intellect -- what psychedelic is all about?
-
 After a disappointing homestand, featuring walks, impatient fans, and a power outage in the middle order, the Brewers hit New York to play the equally stunned Mets at their new ballpark.
There seems to be a consensus among journalists and analysts that the Mets fixed their bullpen when they signed J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez, even though they also got rid of one of their best relievers from 2008 to acquire Putz. Not a lot has changed otherwise about the Mets, who now play in a cavernous ballpark that doesn’t seem to lend itself well to home run derbies. The real question will be how the pitching holds up behind super-ace Johan Santana, especially in the health department.
Entering the series at 3-6, the Brewers featured an imbalance between walks and home runs during their first homestand, offsetting victories gained by a newly patient offense with unsettling bases loaded walks. As I suggested in the previous series’ preview, the team seems to be doing things well at various points of ballgames, only failing to maintain those successes consistently, and carry them forward to victory. Given the pundits’ expectations, this series in New York serves as a test for the Brewers’ improvements.
2008 Stats
Dave Bush (31 G, 4.48 runs average, 5.97 IP/G; 15 quality starts)
@ Livan Hernandez (31 GS, 6.45 runs average, 5.81 IP/GS; 11 quality starts)
Despite a tough-luck bullpen performance following his exit, Bush pitched well against the Cubs in his first start. The righty works his sinker / moving fastball off of both corners, and changes speeds consistently with his change up and bloop curveball. The next task for Bush will be to maintain consistency with his results, the same consistency he found at the close of the 2008 campaign.
Hernandez continues to bounce around the MLB, a shadow of everyone’s favorite Cuban rookie. The junktosser is now junktosser deluxe, consistently working with his slider, change ups, and sinker, which usually sits in the lower 80s at this point in his career. Now that he’s out of the AL and back to the NL, he just mind be what the Mets’ low rotation needs; and he’s certainly a familiar face around the senior circuit.
Yovani Gallardo (4 GS, 1.88 runs average, 6.00 IP/GS; 3 quality starts)
@ Johan Santana (34 GS, 2.84 runs average, 6.89 IP/GS; 26 quality starts)
Gallardo showed the best and worst faces of his game in his first two starts. The young ace pitched well in San Francisco, working without his best stuff in order to keep the Giants at bay and give the Brewers a chance to win it on offense (which he did with his bat). His second start against Cincinnati did not find the same fate, and the young ace lost control with 2-outs against the Reds, walking the bases loaded and then issuing a grand slam. The youngster continually proves that he can return from adversity, and his early 2009 campaign is just another test.
What’s left to say about Santana? Easily the best ace in the game, and really, by quite a margin. Nobody touches the lefty’s value, consistently producing elite season after elite season, all before the age of 30. Santana pitched an incredible 2008 campaign, and now works to live up to his contract for the second consecutive year. It doesn’t seem plausible that most $20 million pitching deals end poorly when one looks at Santana’s record; it seems as though Santana could finish that contract with ease, with no trouble living up to its value.
Jeff Suppan (31 GS, 5.57 runs average, 5.73 IP/GS; 14 quality starts)
@ Mike Pelfrey (32 GS, 3.86 runs average, 6.27 IP/GS; 19 quality starts)
Suppan takes the hill to close the series after an extra day of rest, which will hopefully allow the veteran to make the mechanical adjustments necessary for success on the mound. The sinkerballer simply has not had it, working off the corners, not spotting his pitches for strikes, and suffering the consequences in spades. If you’re ready to give up on him, remember that this man pitched 10 consecutive 30-start seasons, which allows him the benefit of the doubt for at least another month. If anything, Suppan is a consummate professional, and will probably find a way to patch things together.
Pelfrey’s start might be scratched, depending upon the team’s interpretation of his elbow tendonitis. The 25-year old righty features fiery sinking and cross-seam fastballs, and is looking to follow his most successful season in his career. If elbow issues keep him off the mound, the Mets will have to scramble to reorganize their rotation, and hope it doesn’t last; Pelfrey is one of the most important arms behind Santana.
More Posts « Previous page - Next page »
|
|