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May 2009 - Posts
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Is it me, or is everyone simply looking for excuses to dump on the Brewers rotation? And I’m talking about Brewers fans, not anyone else.
Why does it seem that people seem to take every opportunity possible to note that the Brewers’ starters are less than ideal? In fact, the Brewers starting rotation couldn’t be more average in terms of overall production, and more importantly, the distribution of that production is occurring in favorable patterns, witnessed by the Brewers’ overall quality start stats.
On the other hand, the offense sort of gets a free pass, that they’re the really talented portion of this team, and that they simply need to heat up after a cool stretch. In fact, the Brewers’ offense is just as average as the rotation, including excellent campaigns by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder thus far.
Does the presence of superstars on any team, in any regard, help the impression of that team? Note that people were touting the Astros’ offense and pitching staff prior to the season – an offense featuring Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, and Ivan Rodriguez, some bigtime superstar names, no matter how questionable the quality performance of some of those players remains. Of course, it can’t hurt to have Roy Oswalt on your ballclub, but does that skew the perception of the entire rotation? If the Brewers rotation had a couple of true 5 starters, but retained C.C. Sabathia, would that have changed anything?
The Brewers’ rotation remains underrated even after their performance has proven that they can indeed pitch, pitch quality starts, and help their team win. I don’t know why, but people have been underrating this staff for the entire off-season and most of this season thus far, and frankly, it misses the point about what is needed to win in the National League.
Johnny Cueto (3-1, 5 GS, 2.75 runs average, 7.20 IP/GS; 4 quality starts) @ Braden Looper (2-3, 5 GS, 7.00 runs average, 5.66 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
Holy efficiency! After having been run through the Dusty Baker Experience in 2008, Cueto’s arm must breathe a sigh of relief in 2009. This kid is really putting things together, in the rotational absence of Edinson Volquez, his Dominican mate. Unlike his counterpart – who threw his change up more frequently than his cross-seam fastball in 2008 – Cueto is a bigtime fastball / slider pitcher, and throws those pitches almost exclusively.
Looper is in the midst of a tough stretch, after such a bright start. It seems as though he cannot help but allow 5 runs over the course of his last 5 starts. In order for the Brewers to maintain their successful rotation, it is imperative that Looper rebound and pitch somewhere in between his current level and the level at which he started the season.
Aaron Harang (3-1, 5 GS, 3.90 runs average, 6.46 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Dave Bush (2-1, 5 GS, 3.74 runs average, 6.74 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)
Struggling for most of 2008, Harang is putting things back together in 2009, leveling those results back to that production of old. The right hander works almost exclusively with that sneaky 88-90 MPH fastball, sneaky because his height and delivery obscure the speed of the ball, as well as his secondary favorite – the slider. Should the Reds hope to continue their success in 2009, Harang will need to play an important part, and all the better, for it’s a good thing when baseball’s underrated pitchers continue stretches of good performance.
I feel like I say it every week, and every week Bush indulges me further. This sinkerballer is a home run machine lately, allowing 8 HR in his last 5 starts (he allowed 3 in his first 4 starts). Bush pitches aggressively – 62% of his pitches were strikes in his last 5 GS – and two of the consequences are hit batsmen and home runs. Yet, Bush never seems to get hurt with multi-run home runs; not one of those 8 HR was a multi-run homer.
Micah Owings (2-3, 5 G, 4 GS, 5.57 runs average, 5.38 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 5 GS, 3.00 runs average, 6.60 IP/GS; 3 quality starts)
Owings had a rough stretch of late, working one long outing out of the bullpen, and scuffling in his last 4 starts. In his 8 starts thus far, Owings allowed 5 runs in half of them. He and Braden Looper might need a vacation.
So, I went to dinner with the future Mrs. Radio Silence, and we mused on Gallardo's pitch count. She and I both agree that near-130 pitches in 8 innings is not as pretty to look at as near-110 pitches after 7, and since I returned to my cave, I was compelled to look at YoGa's recent game log:
April 8: 6.7 IP, 103 NP (quality start)
April 13: 5.0 IP, 100 NP
April 18: 6.0 IP, 103 NP (quality start)
April 24: 9.0 IP, 106 NP (complete game)
April 29: 8.0 IP, 116 NP (quality start)
May 4: 7.0 IP, 108 NP(quality start)
May 9: 5.0 IP, 102 NP
May 20: 5.0 IP, 94 NP
May 25: 8.0 IP, 126 NP (quality start)
Here's my problem:
(1) For a developing pitcher under 25 years old, I am a bit suspicious of pitch counts around 130 in the first place. Even in the context of an efficient start.
(2) The inefficient starts around the near-130 pitch outing are much more subtle and concerning: April 13, May 9, and May 20, for one, as well as April 18, which is slightly less alarming.
Perhaps I would let a near 130 pitch outing pass if it was a complete game, but in 8 innings, it makes me a bit more concerned, especially after throwing almost 200 pitches to complete 10 innings in his last two starts. Given his inconsistent games started workload lately, with the Cardinals rain out and what not, I'm not sure that right now was the best time to get Gallardo up near 130 pitches.
And yet, what do we do about overall efficiency? Using the MLB basic rule of thumb that 16 pitches is about the average for finishing an inning, even 126 pitches after 8 is technically an efficient outing.
But I'm wondering if we shouldn't have a descending pitch-per-inning requirement after 7 IP -- afterall, we really wouldn't consider 144 NP in a complete game to be efficient, either, would we? Pitchers that complete games are rarely in the position of simply going along in a mediocre start and completing the game for the heck of it; complete games therefore are extra-efficient starts in the era of the bullpen.
This can be seen by looking at the pitch counts in 2009 CG (9 inning and otherwise) thus far:
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Pitcher |
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IP |
NP |
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Z. Greinke |
35 |
438 |
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K. Millwood |
17 |
232 |
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M. Harrison |
18 |
213 |
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B. McCarthy |
9 |
124 |
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Je. Weaver |
17 |
215 |
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J. Saunders |
9 |
101 |
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Z. Duke |
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17 |
208 |
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C. Sabathia |
17 |
211 |
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T. Wakefield |
16 |
213 |
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M. Cain |
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9 |
111 |
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A. Cook |
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9 |
108 |
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Y. Gallardo |
9 |
106 |
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J. Guthrie |
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8 |
110 |
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R. Halladay |
9 |
103 |
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A. Harang |
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9 |
108 |
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D. Haren |
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9 |
111 |
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C. Jakubauskas |
8 |
88 |
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J. Johnson |
9 |
113 |
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K.Lohse |
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9 |
112 |
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J. Marquis |
9 |
113 |
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S. Martis |
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9 |
110 |
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M. Palmer |
9 |
109 |
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J. Peavy |
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9 |
122 |
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J. Pineiro |
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9 |
92 |
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S. Richmond |
8 |
96 |
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E. Stults |
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9 |
123 |
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J. Verlander |
9 |
118 |
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B. Zito |
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8 |
116 |
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322 |
4024 |
12.50 NP/IP |
Whereas one can expect the usual efficiency level of a starter to be around 15-17 pitches per inning, pitchers that have completed games in 2009 are working markedly more efficient outings: They are pitching, on average, between 12 and 13 pitches per inning, with only a few working complete games into the 120 pitch range, and almost nobody sneaking close to that 130 pitch mark.
I believe we can apply this judgment to 7 and 8 inning outings by youngsters by Gallardo. While we should expect pitchers to learn to work deep into games, and shouldn't be too upset with pitch counts between 100 to 110 in 7 innings, those are probably not the types of starts in which a pitcher should be expected to complete the game. That level of efficiency, while average, is not conducive to completing the game due to the number of pitches thrown, probably due to the number of baserunners, etc.
110 in 7 innings is acceptable, but to get to 9 innings, that likely requires another 30 pitches on that type of efficiency level; and while completed the game is pretty much out of the question (or should be), 8 innings becomes the judgment call:
According to efficiency ratings in complete games in 2009, the average NP for a 9 IP complete game is around 113 pitches. So, how do we judge a 126 pitch, 8 inning outing, which is technically an efficient outing? How heavily to we weigh complete game data such as that presented above against the potential of working a pitcher beyond 7 innings?
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I've kind of been lying low with analysis posts lately. Not lost for words; just waiting; waiting to see what this transitional period into replacement players and batting order adjustments brings to the team. Random notes; (1) The replacement at 2B is pretty decent, even if the bats of McGehee, Iribarren, and Counsell don't offer big pop. Here are their combined stats at 2B since Weeks went down: 55 PA, 46 AB, 15 H, 2 2B, 8 K/7 BB, 2 SF; .326/.400/.370. That .400 OBP looks nice. At any rate, they haven't been making outs very frequently at 2B since Weeks went down. (2) True outcomes comparison: Pitching (1783 PA): 55 HR, 172 BB, 312 K (24 HBP) Batting (1805 PA): 53 HR, 193 BB, 377 K (25 HBP) The offensive walks are making this team right now. (3) The home runs have really been flying lately. I think that's why the team's pitchers have such a low BABIP. In their last 5 GS: Looper, 8 HR; Bush, 8 HR; Suppan, 7 HR; Gallardo, 3 HR; Parra, 2 HR. That's 28 HR in 25 GS. That number of batted balls out of play has to influence defensive efficiency and BABIP.
Of course, the Brewers are 15-10 in their last 25 GS, so count your blessings. (4) The bullpen is doing its job. 3.59 runs average, 45 leads converted (16 SV, 29 HLD), 8 blown leads, .849% leads converted. (5) Braun and Fielder in their last 10 games: 82 PA, 68 AB, 19 H, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR; 11 K/12 BB, 2 HBP; .279/.402/.382 Great OBP, but again, the power just isn't there right now. (6) June could provide an important test for the Brewers: AL roadtrip through Cleveland and Detroit as the weather warms up, another roadtrip through the southern branch of the NL East, homestands against the White Sox, Twins, Giants, and Rockies, and the beginning of a series against the Mets. A lot of teams that have talent, maybe not the W-L record right now, but a lot of teams that could match up very well against the Brewers. Good challenge, middle of the season looming....
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Now, that was a roadtrip. Road sweet road once again leaves the Brewers with a winning mark over an extended trip, and a 14-11 road mark that is one of the best in the National League. In fact, the only teams that have better road winning percentages on the road than the Brewers have also played fewer than 25 road games (Atlanta has 20, Cincinnati 21, and Philadelphia 22).
Only Colorado has a larger split between road games (26) and home games (17) than the Brewers (25 and 19), in cases where teams have played more road games than home games (St. Louis and Houston have the opposite case of extreme home dates thus far).
So, if I told you in March that the Brewers would play 6 more road games than home games through Memorial Day weekend, post a good winning percentage on the road, and boast a 214 to 191 runs differential through 44 games, what would you say?
Last 5 GS (unless otherwise listed)
Chris Carpenter (1-0, 1 GS, 0.00 runs average, 5.00 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 5 GS, 3.44 runs average, 6.80 IP/GS; 3 quality starts)
How fast would you expect a slider to be? Or, if a pitcher threw a fastball just under 93 MPH, how fast would you expect a slider to be? In my opinion, there is some type of tracking discrepancy regarding Carpenter’s second attempt at a new season, which occurred against the Cubs last week. Carpenter reportedly throws a slider this year that averages between 88 and 89 MPH, off of his 92.8 MPH average fastball, but a closer look at his most recent GameDay suggests that he’s actually throwing something that is closer to a cutter. Now, it wouldn’t be surprising if he threw a slider with little horizontal break and therefore mostly vertical break (which is rather slight compared to his curveball), but what I can’t get beyond is the idea that Carpenter’s slider is averaging 88.5 MPH. That’s a really, really hard slider for a pitcher who is “only” throwing a 92.8 MPH fastball.
(If you want some evidence that an 88.5 MPH slider is really hard, consider that in the 2008 National League, not one pitcher averaged a slider at or above 87 MPH, and that’s including pitchers like Johnny Cueto (94-95 MPH fastball), Ubaldo Jimenez (95-96 MPH sinker), C.C. Sabathia (94-95 MPH fastball), Matt Cain (93-94 MPH fastball), Todd Wellemeyer (93-93 MPH fastball), or Oliver Perez (92-93 MPH fastball) – and each of those guys threw a version of a slider as their main secondary pitch).
In seasons past, Carpenter used to throw an 84-85 MPH slider off of a 90-91 MPH fastball, which is a much more realistic velocity range; he featured a second fastball (probably a cutter) that worked around 86-87 MPH. I highly suspect that that is the pitch Carpenter is currently throwing above 88 MPH in 2009. At any rate, he is throwing harder than ever (his average fastball is the best of his career, and 26 of his 75 pitches on the 20th were at or above 93 MPH), although his velocity did rapidly decrease on the 20th (only 5 of those 26 pitches at or above 93 MPH came during the 4th or 5th inning).
Expect Carpenter to come out throwing hard, throwing almost nothing but fastballs and curveballs (around the mid-70s), with that bizarre little secondary fastball thrown in there around 88 or 89. Adding the little cutter / slider together with the cross-seam fastball, one might expect at least 50 of 75 pitches for Carpenter to be a fastball of some sort.
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Sometimes, aces just don’t have it. We don’t always need to search for grand meaning in every win or loss as fans. That was clearly the case in Gallardo’s last start, during which he was cuffed around to the tune of 6 runs in 5 innings, a departure from his recent stretch of quality starts. In the past, Gallardo displayed great resiliency after being beaten without his best stuff, and as the weather warms up in Miller Park, look for the ace to stay even cooler on the mound while working his array of curveballs and fastballs in whichever counts he pleases.
Adam Wainwright (2-2, 5 GS, 4.15 runs average, 6.94 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Jeff Suppan (2-1, 5 GS, 3.30 runs average, 6.00 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)
I have to say, I always thought that the Cardinals’ move of Wainwright from the bullpen to the rotation would harm the youngster’s arm, but as it turns out, Wainwright is a fine pitcher in the starting rotation. This thought occurred to me the other day, while I watched his near-complete game effort against the Cubs in St. Louis. Wainwright is evolving as a pitcher – he is throwing both his slider and his change up more frequently, and along with his collection of fastballs and patented drop curveball, his arsenal is developing into quite a robust selection.
Jeff Suppan was throwing hard in his last start. 28 of his 104 pitches were at or above 87 MPH, with several touching 88, 89 MPH, and another touching 90 MPH (I think this is significant because his average fastball in 2009 is between 86 and 87 MPH). Sometimes Suppan goes on these stretches, it seems, where he suddenly quits the cutter or the slider or the soft curveball, and hits the cross seam fastball. Suppan’s game plan, and the nature of his stuff, requires him to go to the well for different pet pitches throughout the season, and it’s always particularly fun to watch him when he does throw the harder fastball, and it’s even better when that approach brings him success.
Todd Wellemeyer (3-2, 5 GS, 4.50 runs average, 6.00 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Manny Parra (3-1, 5 GS, 5.60 runs average, 5.46 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)
Wellemeyer is in the midst of one of those “take me as I am” stretches. 3 quality starts in his last 5 GS, each of which he won. He lost his 2 non-quality starts, and tallied a perfect quality start average –4.50 runs average, 6.00 IP/GS during the 5 game stretch. We seem to spend a lot of time talking about spectacular performances, extremely lucky W-L records, or pitchers who don’t deserve the fate they received, so much so that we tend to overlook stretches where pitchers receive exactly what they deserve.
Parra’s recent performances leave a lot of question marks: were the high baserunner totals and efficiency problems during his recent quality start stretch a hint of things to come? Or should we have purchased stock in his recent consecutive quality start streak as a sign of success for Parra? It’s not often that one can look at a pitcher’s best stretch ever – such as Parra’s four consecutive quality starts – and simply say, that might have been a sign of more trouble to come.
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Tell me this isn’t fun.
The Brewers faced their first hint of adversity this week, losing starting second baseman Rickie Weeks to a wrist injury, opening a platoon frenzy at second and third base by Ken Macha, the Brewers’ shrewd psychological guru. Making up for stretches of offensive inactivity by stringing together a crucial big inning here or there, and riding on the coattails of a ridiculously effective bullpen, the hot streak continues. Sure, you can throw a loss in there, but who cares, really? The Brewers won yet another series, and are maintaining a torrid winning pace in May.
Character is formed by the habitual actions, emotions, desires, and experiences of a person, and collectively, it seems to be the case that we’re seeing a test of the Brewers’ development over the last few years, right here, right now. Receiving trials such as the 2009 season has provided and answering with strong, resilient performance is not a given whatsoever; and yet here we stand with the Brewers winning their first series without their second baseman, with a new rotating cast of personalities, a fine start on which to build.
This stretches beyond their training as minor leaguers to prepare their physical skills; Brewers success in 2009 will also require psychological strength and a clear resolve to win. The type of resolve that is hopefully instilled by two close playoff races in two seasons, including the divisional collapse in 2007, and the improbable Wild Card in 2008. From these experiences, I guarantee you that we’re seeing a Brewers team develop that is more than the aggregate of their on-field performance.
Last 5 GS (unless otherwise noted)
Manny Parra (3-1, 5 GS, 3.41 runs average, 5.80 IP/GS; 4 quality starts) @ Kevin Slowey (3-1, 5 GS, 3.64 runs average, 5.94 IP/GS; 3 quality starts)
Parra enters Minneapolis on the best stretch of his career thus far. The shapeshifting lefty – power fastball, lots of breaking pitches – pitched 4 quality starts in his last 4 GS. But, not everything is in the clear; despite the quality starts, the lefty is not pitching efficient outings. In his last 4 GS, his consecutive quality starts, Parra threw 428 pitches, almost 18 pitches per inning. While it is encouraging that Parra can keep up the quality outings, one might wonder how long he can maintain that level of pitching efficiency.
Slowey hasn’t quite reached his 2008 level of production, but he’s getting closer to that performance level. The righty is working his fastball almost 70% of the time in 2009, a sharp contrast to the curveballing change up artists that the Brewers faced in 2 of 3 games in Houston. Complementing the fastball with his slider, batters will mostly see those two pitches from Slowey, with curves and changes thrown in from time to time for good measure. Of course, Slowey will look to replicate his last successful outing against the Brewers at the Metrodome.
Braden Looper (2-2, 5 GS, 6.59 runs average, 5.46 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Anthony Swarzak (0-0, 0 GS)
Looper is in the midst of a rough stretch, but that’s okay. He is keeping the Brewers close even in his less-than-quality outings, which is a crucial trait for a middle rotation pitcher. The key of Looper’s production is that it is sustainable – that is, this is an entirely realistic level of performance for 2009, both the good and the bad. Which is probably rather promising to the Brewers’ chances of success.
Young Swarzak makes his first major league start against the Brewers. The right-hander reportedly has nasty stuff, although according to him, he’s just a guy who tries to establish his fastball early, to both sides of the plate, throw some curveballs, a few change ups, and he is also learning a slider (according to an interview with Mike Ashmore). Sounds like a sound approach! He is pitching very well to start 2009, and will likely be a welcome addition to the Twins’ rotation.
Dave Bush (2-0, 5 GS, 4.22 runs average, 6.40 IP/GS; 4 quality starts) @ Scott Baker (1-3, 5 GS, 5.40 runs average, 6.00 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
Bush is on a tear right now, yet another Brewer on a 4-consecutive quality start streak. The beauty of pitching aggressively is that even when you make mistakes – such as allowing home run balls – there is probably not anyone on base to add extra damage. This is Dave Bush’s secret, and explains why the righty sinkerballer can get by with strong results while allowing home runs.
To close the series, the Twins have yet another fastball / slider artist, although this one is more prolific with the slider than Slowey. Baker is having a rough go of it thus far, pitching nowhere near his 2007-2008 levels. The righty will certainly welcome some home cooking from that Metrodome turf, and his fate will rest on the patience of Brewers bats.
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It will be discussed -- because people like this type of fodder -- that the 2009 Crew currently have the same record (on May 20) as the 2007 Brewers on May 15, when that 2007 season started to go downhill, with those awful mid-summer months. I'm not sure why people do this when the team is winning, but it seems like some people are so interested in criticism that they find the tiniest things to nitpick. So, on first glance, even the runs differential looks the same: 2007 25-14: 195 RS, 161 RA 2009 25-14: 198 RS, 159 RA But, there are key differences: (1) Having Ryan Braun earlier in the season, and at a better performance level, along with Mike Cameron and Prince Fielder raises the Brewers' projected runs scored by approximately 12 over an entire season. If you think that is a small difference, I have a grand two bedroom apartment on the border of Lakeview and Uptown that I will be happy to sublet. (2) The pitching staff in 2007 did have Ben Sheets, and Dave Bush was having a down year, and Yovani Gallardo was waiting in the wings. But, the early runs differential was supported by 2.75 ERA by Claudio Vargas and an ERA under 3.50 by Jeff Suppan. This year, the Crew are supporting one of the best pitching staffs in baseball with three starters (Parra, Looper, and Suppan) hovering around fringe 3/4 production -- approximately 5.00 runs average, approximately 5.40 IP/GS for each of those pitchers. Believe me, that's a good thing. I'll put my money on Looper, Parra, and Suppan maintaining 5.00 runs average, 5.40 IP/GS production for an entire season any day of the week, and although that bet won't pay out as much as betting on Claudio Vargas to finish a season with 180 IP, 2.75 ERA, I'll gladly eat canned garbanzos with less spending money and watch a pitching staff that is actually sustainable. Watching an unsustainable pitching performance lead a team into first place is like watching the Los Angeles Clippers. (3) Trevor Hoffman is a better closer than Francisco Cordero. But seriously, don't you love this year's bullpen? A bunch of cheap, no-good, chumps -- except for Carlos Villanueva, Mitch Stetter, and maybe the future HOF'er Hoffman -- that simply decided to have an "on" year instead of an "off" year. I don't believe any of them, except Hoffman, are making $1 million, or much more than $1 million. Exactly how a bullpen should be built -- reliever performance is way too difficult to project, and never very reliable. Just get a bunch of warm bodies (preferably), and stack them in close confines for 162 games, out behind the outfield wall. BTW, making the HOF on the merit of saves is worse than doing steroids. (4) Speaking of which, aren't our expectations simply different than in '07? That team was so hot and had such a large lead early that many of us thought that losing the division was impossible. A Brewers collapse and a couple of Mets chokes later, and I believe we all know the value of 8 game leads in the standings. In May. Seriously, though, check this out: By May 15 in 2007, the Crew had been in 1st place for 30 days already, featuring leads no smaller than 5 games from early May through to May 15. So, that framed expectations entirely differently than this 2009 team, who is just spending their 6th day in 1st place, and their first lead above 2 games. We know already that 2-game and 3-game leads will vanish. We know that being in 1st place for a week in May doesn't matter. But when your team spends the last half of April and most of May in first place, it changes the way you look at things.
(5) I have never before watched a team as good as the 2009 Brewers and have felt that they are underdogs. I still think of these guys as underdogs -- seems like the Crew have fewer proven veterans, and more question marks, and more guys early in their careers simply looking to establish themselves. (6) Other clues about why it is not 2007: in 2007, Darker My Love had not yet released 2, LOST wasn't dealing with explicit time travel, Brett Favre had only retired 7 times, and Green Day only had one rock epic under their belts.
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