It will be discussed -- because people like this type of fodder -- that the 2009 Crew currently have the same record (on May 20) as the 2007 Brewers on May 15, when that 2007 season started to go downhill, with those awful mid-summer months. I'm not sure why people do this when the team is winning, but it seems like some people are so interested in criticism that they find the tiniest things to nitpick.
So, on first glance, even the runs differential looks the same:
2007 25-14: 195 RS, 161 RA
2009 25-14: 198 RS, 159 RA
But, there are key differences:
(1) Having Ryan Braun earlier in the season, and at a better performance level, along with Mike Cameron and Prince Fielder raises the Brewers' projected runs scored by approximately 12 over an entire season. If you think that is a small difference, I have a grand two bedroom apartment on the border of Lakeview and Uptown that I will be happy to sublet.
(2) The pitching staff in 2007 did have Ben Sheets, and Dave Bush was having a down year, and Yovani Gallardo was waiting in the wings. But, the early runs differential was supported by 2.75 ERA by Claudio Vargas and an ERA under 3.50 by Jeff Suppan. This year, the Crew are supporting one of the best pitching staffs in baseball with three starters (Parra, Looper, and Suppan) hovering around fringe 3/4 production -- approximately 5.00 runs average, approximately 5.40 IP/GS for each of those pitchers.
Believe me, that's a good thing. I'll put my money on Looper, Parra, and Suppan maintaining 5.00 runs average, 5.40 IP/GS production for an entire season any day of the week, and although that bet won't pay out as much as betting on Claudio Vargas to finish a season with 180 IP, 2.75 ERA, I'll gladly eat canned garbanzos with less spending money and watch a pitching staff that is actually sustainable. Watching an unsustainable pitching performance lead a team into first place is like watching the Los Angeles Clippers.
(3) Trevor Hoffman is a better closer than Francisco Cordero.
But seriously, don't you love this year's bullpen? A bunch of cheap, no-good, chumps -- except for Carlos Villanueva, Mitch Stetter, and maybe the future HOF'er Hoffman -- that simply decided to have an "on" year instead of an "off" year. I don't believe any of them, except Hoffman, are making $1 million, or much more than $1 million.
Exactly how a bullpen should be built -- reliever performance is way too difficult to project, and never very reliable. Just get a bunch of warm bodies (preferably), and stack them in close confines for 162 games, out behind the outfield wall.
BTW, making the HOF on the merit of saves is worse than doing steroids.
(4) Speaking of which, aren't our expectations simply different than in '07? That team was so hot and had such a large lead early that many of us thought that losing the division was impossible. A Brewers collapse and a couple of Mets chokes later, and I believe we all know the value of 8 game leads in the standings. In May.
Seriously, though, check this out: By May 15 in 2007, the Crew had been in 1st place for 30 days already, featuring leads no smaller than 5 games from early May through to May 15. So, that framed expectations entirely differently than this 2009 team, who is just spending their 6th day in 1st place, and their first lead above 2 games.
We know already that 2-game and 3-game leads will vanish. We know that being in 1st place for a week in May doesn't matter. But when your team spends the last half of April and most of May in first place, it changes the way you look at things.
(5) I have never before watched a team as good as the 2009 Brewers and have felt that they are underdogs. I still think of these guys as underdogs -- seems like the Crew have fewer proven veterans, and more question marks, and more guys early in their careers simply looking to establish themselves.
(6) Other clues about why it is not 2007: in 2007, Darker My Love had not yet released
2,
LOST wasn't dealing with explicit time travel, Brett Favre had only retired 7 times, and Green Day only had
one rock epic under their belts.