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June 2009 - Posts
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I know the prevalent opinion is that the 2009 Brewers are not a good situational team -- and I am no different with my rants about baserunning -- but I think people are misguided on the RISP issue. The Brewers are batting well with runners in scoring position. This needs to be clarified because it's an all too common complaint: 2009 NL RISP: 10713 PA (0.276 of total PA), 3464 R (0.771 of total R). .254/.352/.396 (0.748 OPS) Brewers RISP: 650 PA (0.265 of total PA), 221 R (0.732 of total R). .251/.350/.432 (0.782 OPS)
The Brewers are a rather good team when runners are in scoring positionl the actual point that is more important is that they do not rely on RISP to score their runs as much as the average team. This is a good thing. Fewer of the Brewers' total PA occur with RISP, and they subsequently score a lower percentage of their total runs in their RISP opportunities. Why is this important? Well, it's simple: The Brewers more readily score runs through different means than other NL teams. Their hitting ability with RISP is not in question; and what is significant is that because they hit for power, they score more runs without runners in scoring position (think about solo home runs, for instance).
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A new chance to get back on track begins in Cleveland. The Brewers will likely feature a 4-man rotation with the coming days off, and probably do not need a 5th starter for two full weeks. This will keep their rotation stocked with their most effective arms at the moment, and hopefully provide a spark where Murphy’s Law has recently ruled.
Dave Bush (1-3, 5 GS, 5.85 runs average, 5.54 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Carl Pavano (3-1, 5 GS, 4.24 runs average, 6.80 IP/GS, 16 R; 4 quality starts)
Like most of the rotation recently, Bush has not been able to pile up the quality starts, although he is certainly keeping the Brewers in the game. Of note is his recent trend of simply making one mistake that knocks otherwise strong starts off track. Bush is not throwing the ball poorly; but when a pitcher is as aggressive as he is with the ball and approach, there will be times when the aggression comes back to bite that pitcher. Otherwise, Bush is probably the Brewers’ most efficient starter.
It probably isn’t all that surprising, but Pavano is touch-and-go during his comeback season. The right-hander just finished a phenomenal stretch of 8 starts, where he went 6-1, pitching 54 innings and allowing 18 runs. Of course, his April was forgettable, as was his most recent start against the Royals, where he allowed 9 runs in 4.7 innings. The righty is mainly getting by with a fastball and change up combination, although he’ll also use a slider frequently.
Yovani Gallardo (2-2, 5 GS, 2.88 runs average, 6.26 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Jeremy Sowers (1-2, 5 GS, 3.96 runs average, 5.00 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
Gallardo is recently alternating between 5 inning and 8 inning starts, and the issue of efficiency shows its face once again with the young ace. In his last four 5 IP starts, Gallardo has used at least 94 pitches in each of them, and needed 105 pitches to reach 5 IP against the Rockies. While Gallardo hardly has any eye-raising pitch counts in 2009, it is these types of inefficient starts that will wear on his arm, in which he requires between 6 and 7 innings worth of pitches to do 5 innings of work. It is a sign that he is allowing lots of hits or walks, and not retiring batters quickly. While it may be reassuring to not see more than one 120+ pitch outing for Gallardo, these 100 pitch outings should be alarming.
Sowers is back in the Indians’ rotation, filling in as a spot starter due to a recent stretch marred by rain. The left-hander throws basic lefty fare, mainly relying on a fastball, change up, and slider to record outs. Now that he is in Cleveland, he will look to continue his stretch of serviceable innings and win a permanent spot in their rotation.
Jeff Suppan (2-1, 5 GS, 4.04 runs average, 5.34 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ David Huff (2-1, 5 GS, 5.93 runs average, 4.86 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
Just keep on keepin’ on, right? Suppan is truly in the midst of one of those stretches where he pitches strong outings that give the Brewers a great chance of winning. Not technically quality starts, but he’s not surrendering too many runs, either. When the righty works off the corners, out of the zone, with strong movement, he’ll get batters to swing at bad pitches, moving off the corners as they commit to swing. This is the story of his White Sox start, where he worked a change up along with his sinkers and curveballs.
Closing the series is one of the Indians’ Top 10 prospects, featuring Baseball America’s stamp for best change up and best control in the Indians’ system. The lefty throws in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball, using his change up as his complementary pitch, which he will throw in any count. He also uses a slider against lefties, and will show a 12-to-6 curveball.
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If you speak with random, average Americans, you'll more often than not find striking similarities that transcend the conventional "liberal" and "conservative" monikers that people brandish about as though it were a true political chasm (in reality, the American battle for political real estate in the name of "conservatives" and "liberals" covers a lot about as small as a single European center-right party or moderate party). More than Democrat or Republican, your average American will be strikingly populist. It doesn't matter if you were raised off the Cottage Grove Green Line or Christ King Church in Wauwatosa; the good chances are that most common Americans share, more than anything, the view that things are as they seem, and that we have unobstructed perceptual access to things as they are. I hesitate to call this a position of realism; realism would be something like the position that we have direct perceptual access to the world around us, and the intellectual ability to process and sort reality according to concepts that allow for some critical distance from the world as it appears. Your common American's populism stops at, things are as they appear. That this type of view transcends class and race in many significant ways should not be surprising, because this view does not seek to overthrow the status quo or the political order as it stands; its approach places the power with each individual's perceptual devices in such a way that each American can maintain their deep distrust in bureaucracy, their deep individualism, and a type of relativism that ultimately allows us to often state that "you may disagree with me, but you cannot disprove me or take away my opinion, for it is my opinion." Ironically, the average American's distrust in bureaucracy results not in a revolutionary furor against the liberal state, but in a complacency that this is the best government possible simply because it maintains a radical individualism backed by the power that things are as they seem. Thus, political battles in America are not over actual ideological differences, but the mere power to control one specific aspect of the prevalent ideology; to gain official influence over the perception of things are as they seem. *** This explains, in my opinion, the merciless position of baseball following the steroids era, and the baseball writers, fans, and common person's opinions about MLB players using steroids. Not only are players guilty until proven innocent -- a clearly populist version of justice where the sheriff and judge share the same office and the latter forms his verdict before he actually enforces justice; but players are guilty on whatever hearsay is available. And where there is not evidence clearly proving one or the other verdict (i.e., that Sammy Sosa did or did not use steroids), there always remains visual evidence, the ability to perceive that things are as they seem, and know with certainty that any individual's perceptual judgment cannot be refuted by any other. Things are as they seem, are as they appear, in every regard. And when this strikes an entire era of baseball, not simply for those players implicated in the Mitchell report, held guilty not in courts of law but in courts of baseball (which are much more harsh and far less just), the writers will not tarnish an abstract, bureaucratic organization (the Hall of Fame) any more than its very reputation and history harms itself. The writers will simply enforce yet another rule of American populism, an acceptance of things existing as they seem, without any critical distance, without any concern for actual justice -- for justice is unnecessary when every person is their own judge in every matter. And the American regime will last forever, or merely indefinitely, so long as the distrust of abstract bureaucracy is itself merely concerned with individual authority, leaving no room for critical analysis, reflection; or, in a word, justice.
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What type of value should a player that played in the "steroids" era exhibit in order to make it into the Hall of Fame? This is on my mind lately, because of Sammy Sosa's recent retirement, as well as the retirement of other big time sluggers that played throughout the Roarin' 90s. Sosa seems to me a perfect case, because although he is one of the most prolific home run hitters of all time, his actual value against his era and environment is not what you'd expect. The 609 HR and career .534 SLG is very impressive, but his overall line of .273/.344/.534 was not as valuable in his environment as his career HR suggest; that is, Sosa's overall production (which probably will not come into question for a HOF ballot) does not follow the significance of his greatest contribution to the game of baseball. In his time, the average player went .268/.338/.422; so, once again, we see that Sosa's .534 SLG is king; but along with that, we see that he did not make outs at a better rate than the average player (he is basically within 1% range of the average OBP during his career). This affects his value as a hitter, even if it does not diminish his prolific counting stats. All of this is good for a career 128 OPS+, which compares his career OPS to the average OPS of his career (100 is average, 200 is phenomenal; think of every number, such as 128, as an indication of the percentage above average that the player produced; so, it'd be something like, Sosa was better than 28% of his peers throughout his career). Here are some other notable 128 OPS+ careers: Moises Alou, Mickey Cochrane, Keith Hernandez, Kent Hrbek, John Olerud, Jim Rice, Joe Torre, and Jimmy Wynn. Moises Alou is my favorite comparison to Sammy Sosa for one key reason: although he does not have the counting stats and probably won't make the HOF for that reason, his value as a player is rather similar to Sosa. Basically, Alou's value to Sosa is that he did other things that hit home runs; we can note that although his career SLG does not match Sosa's, his career OBP is 2.5% higher than Sosa's, which is not an insignificant mark. Alou never hit 40 HR in a season, but he also never struck out 100 times in a season, and he also hit for a higher average. Moises Alou's career .303/.369/.516, with 332 HR exhibit a different type of player production. Of course, he had a different role; he spent his career hitting behind some of the great sluggers of the time; whereas Sosa could always be found batting 3rd or 4th, Alou spent most of his time in the 5th spot, with other prominent time in the 4th spot. There are other aspects that intrigue me about Alou vs. Sosa; for instance, Alou's career was much more balance. Although he didn't have half the PA Sosa did before age 30, Alou was a more balanced .292/.348/.488; Sosa was .264/.318/.493 before age 30. After age 30? Sosa went .283/.371/.579, against Alou's .308/.378/.528. It should be noted that this is the timeline in which Sosa was hitting his MVP seasons and simply mashing the ball; Alou's numbers can't hang in the SLG department (although no one would call a .528 SLG bad), but notice that his numbers are much more balanced compared to his seasons before the big 3-0. I'm not sure if my point is that Alou should make the HOF. I believe that the Jim Rice prototype opens up many interesting questions that can challenge our perception of what HOF players from the 1990s should look like. What I do believe is that if Sammy Sosa has a case based upon his prolific home run totals, Moises Alou has a case based upon his more balanced hitting, good power, better discipline, and overall comparable value. Even if Alou doesn't stack up in the pure counting stats, his value as a player is rather similar, and I believe that that should be a challenge to HOF voting techniques.
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The National League Central is an intriguing division. At the start of the season, every analyst and most fans (myself included) handed the division to the Cubs, but most overlooked an important caveat: that the Cubs were not as strong as their 2008 version, and the Brewers’ pitching was not as bad as everyone claimed. Of course, in tripping over themselves to point out that the Brewers’ rotation would be weak without C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets, most overlooked the importance of featuring a strong bullpen, and the impact that those guys sitting out beyond the left field fence can impart on a group pf 25 men.
Now, we have ourselves a competitive division. The Cubs have not yet started it up, but they will; the Cardinals and Reds are both keeping pace. And the Brewers. The club with the average pitching staff, an average offense with a high ceiling, and a strong bullpen, keeps on working towards winning results.
People might like to make more of the current losing streak – as if the team is finally falling towards their predestined fate prescribed by every talking head, but that would be to lose sight of what a baseball season is all about.
After 60 games, here we are. A strong runs differential, driven by above average pitching, and a spot in the midst of a division race. Could you ask for anything else?
Clayton Richard (2-1, 5 GS, 3.60 runs average, 6.00 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Jeff Suppan (2-1, 5 GS, 3.46 runs average, 5.20 IP/GS; 1 quality start)
Richard opens the series for the White Sox in the midst of a strong stretch of starts. One of three left-handers on the Sox staff that features a change up as the prominent secondary pitch (John Danks and Mark Buehrle both throw the change up as their most prominent complementary pitch), Richard usually has trouble with his control, but when he puts it together, he can keep batters off balance with a good fastball and his secondary arsenal.
Amidst questions about whether or not the Brewers pitching can sustain itself throughout the season (it can), Suppan is quietly pitching a strong stretch of starts, once again. The veteran’s results seem to be loudest when he pitches poorly and gets hit hard; but nobody seems to praise the virtues of a veteran innings eater any longer. Working one of two handfuls of pitches in order to keep batters off balance, Suppan walks a perfect balance between nibbling and pitching, and must live on the outer limits of the zone in order to find success.
Jose Contreras (1-0, 1 GS, 8 IP, 0 R; 1 quality start) @ Manny Parra (1-3, 5 GS, 10.16 runs average, 5.14 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)
Everybody’s favorite fork-balling Cuban is back from the minors! After an awful start to the season, Contreras was optioned to AAA Charlotte in order to straighten things out. The definition of a pure pitcher, Contreras completely loses it from time to time, switching arm angles without strong mechanics backing up his moves, shooting his pitches every which way around the zone. When he’s on, look for Contreras to pitch from low side-arm to high three-quarters, throwing a riding fastball, his famous forkball, and a slider to boot.
Consistency eludes Parra once again. The left-hander is pitching well enough to stay in the rotation (6 of 12 starts are quality starts, 7 starts feature at least 5 IP, 3 or fewer R). When he is bad, however, he is awful, which is troublesome for the young left-hander, who still suffers from pitching around the outside of the zone, failing to solidify a strong pitching sequence with his best pitch, failing to pitch aggressively with his fastball, and losing control and pitching with inefficient results. Every other start, you’re likely to receive a quality start from Parra; the issue of focus, however, is what happens in the other half of his starts.
Mark Buehrle(1-1, 5 GS, 3.78 runs average, 7.14 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Braden Looper (2-1, 5 GS, 6.06 runs average, 5.94 IP/GS; 3 quality starts)
A timeless, classic lefty, no? You could write an instructional book based on his Buehrle pitches with a fastball that averages no more than 87 MPH, and works an entire arsenal of pitches with success. The lefty prominently features a cutter and a change up to neutralize righties, and he will also throw a curveball and a slider. Of course, you won’t see him throw that cross-seam fastball more than 40% of the time, meaning that this perennial top rotation pitcher lives on location, deception, and movement.
Along with Suppan – everybody’s least likely vote for most successful pitcher on the Brewers’ staff, Looper is putting together the best stretch of starts recently. It never changes with this guy, does it? He knows exactly what he needs to do to keep his team in the game, and will spin pedestrian stuff into strong results with good frequency. Count this as another vote in favor of average, veteran innings eaters. The steady approach of an average veteran is sometimes stronger and more valuable than the inconsistent approach of a youngster with better stuff and a higher ceiling.
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