Series Preview: How the Minnesota Twins approach pitching....

Researching the Twins' starters this year, I have found a lot of things intriguing about them. Here are their pitch selections (data from FanGraphs):

Kevin Slowey: 89 MPH fastball (69.2%), 84 MPH slider (13.5%), 83 MPH change and 74 MPH curve (around 8.5% each)

Glen Perkins: 89 MPH fastball (67.2%), 82 MPH slider (16.5%), 81 MPH change (16%)

Nick Blackburn: 90 MPH fastball (62.3%), 86 MPH cutter (22.3%), 77 MPH curveball (10.5%)

Scott Baker: 91 MPH fastball (60.7%), 83 MPH slider (22.4%), 78 MPH curve, 84 MPH change (around 8% each)

Francisco Liriano: 91 MPH fastball (58.3%), 86 MPH slider (26.7%), 84 MPH change (15%)

By contrast:

Yovani Gallardo: 92 MPH fastball (61.1%), 80 MPH curveball (24.5%), 85 MPH slider (8.9%), 85 MPH change (5.8%)

Manny Parra: 91 MPH fastball (55.9%), 83 MPH change (21.3%), 76 MPH curve (13.5%), 83 MPH splitter (8.6%)

Jeff Suppan: 87 MPH fastball (52%), 83 MPH slider (20.2%), 81 MPH change (16.5%), 72 MPH curve (11.2%)

Braden Looper: 89 MPH fastball (50.6%), 82 MPH splitter (32.9%), 84 MPH slider (16.5%)

Dave Bush: 88 MPH fastball (49.6%), 67 MPH curveball (18.6%), 85 MPH cutter (15.8%), 82 MPH slider and 82 MPH change (around 7.5-8.5% each)

 Here are the overall starting pitching lines:

2009 Twins rotation:  71 GS, 429.3 IP, 295 K/115 BB; 4.72 runs average

2009 Brewers rotation: 69 GS, 388.7 IP, 295 K/161 BB; 5.28 runs average

 A few things:

-Notice that although the Crew strike out batters more frequently, they walk them even more frequently.

-Notice that four Brewers starters have a secondary pitch at or over 20% plus a third pitch around or over 15%. Only one Twins starter features both a secondary pitch over 20% plus a third pitch around or over 15%. The rest of their starters either don't have a secondary pitch at or over 20%, or don't have a third pitch over 10%.

The direct consequence of throwing fewer fastballs is throwing more breaking pitches or change ups. In only two cases does this not apply (Bush and Blackburn) because they both prominently feature a cutter, or second fastball. (I am not counting a splitter with an 8 MPH differential as a fastball here, in the case of Looper).

-Three Twins pitchers feature the fastball at or above 62% of the time.  Two of them feature it above 67% of the time. One Brewers starter features the fastball at or above 60%.

-Four of the Twins starters feature the slider as their secondary pitch. The only one that doesn't (Blackburn) throws a cutter. 

 Two thoughts:

-It is clear that the organizational approach of the Twins has yielded a collection of similar-minded, coherent, cohesive slider/fastball pitchers who work with their fastballs rather prominently, and do not mess around with multiple pitches.

-The Brewers, it seems to me, suffer from a lack of direction with their fastballs, along with a robust collection of secondary pitches. Compared to the Twins' starters, who use a fastball and a slider almost to a fault, the Brewers' starters look downright disorganized, using their fastball less and then brag two curveballs, a slider, a splitter, and a change up as their secondary pitch.

 I have long thought that someone like Parra could benefit from a less-is-more approach, and feature just two of his pitches, rather than all four (and thus use his fastball smarter, more aggressively, and more frequently). But maybe this approach could be employed by the entire staff, and especially Jason Kendall. I have little doubt in my mind that Kendall's game-calling is well-reflected here -- tailored to each pitcher's breaking ball or change up, rather than employing a staff-wide ideology, and featuring the fastball almost so infrequently that that pitch selection conjures up images of that once-famous Harvey Wallbangers catcher that was such a fastball hitter that he prominently called breaking balls.

Something must change with Brewers pitchers: they must use their fastballs more, and more effectively, and they must cut some of their breaking balls or change ups, and focus on throwing one or two pitches well, rather than three or four pedestrian pitches.

Pitching Match-ups:

  

Francisco Liriano (0-3, 5 GS, 5.67 runs average, 5.40 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Jeff Suppan (2-1, 5 GS, 4.04 runs average, 5.34 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

 

Liriano looks to continually improve his endurance, as well as his performance, in order to reclaim his performance that preceded his injury issues. He’s not quite the fireballer we remember; his fastball averages between 91 and 92 now, meaning that that wicked slider comes in slower, too.

 

At a time when he is most needed, Suppan has consistently worked quality starts as well as good “non”-quality starts. The junkballer is working his stuff off of the corners and out of the zone, switching his pitches enough to keep batters off balance, giving the Brewers an excellent chance to win.

 

Nick Blackburn (3-0, 5 GS, 2.19 runs average, 7.40 IP/GS; 5 quality starts) @ Braden Looper (1-1, 5 GS. 6.59 runs average, 5.46 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

 

Over 84% of his pitches selected are fastballs, including a “cut” variety, and his recent results could hardly be any better: the righty is working consistently deep into games, keeping scoring down, and therefore gaining his fair share of wins on behalf of the Twins.

 

While the big story is Bush’s fatigue, Looper’s performance has also dropped off, especially his IP/GS. The splitter-pitcher is working relatively short outings and not limiting his runs allowed especially well.

 

Scott Baker (2-1, 5 GS, 3.97 runs average, 6.80 IP/GS; 4 quality starts) @ TBA / Dave Bush (0-3, 5 GS, 10.56 runs average, 4.26 IP/GS; 0 quality starts)

 

After a tough start, Baker seems to have reclaimed his magic, working consistent quality starts and working deep into games. Closing the series, Baker might be a perfect example of the Twins’ pitching approach with his fastball and slider; only Liriano throws his slider more frequently on the Twins.

 

This start is marked TBA, should the Brewers decided to rest the fatigued Bush’s arm.

Comments

 

DaveinEG said:

Great analysis.

Considering Brewer pitchers face opposing pitchers, you would think their fastball percentage would be slightly higher than an AL team.

I completely agree that Kendall is part of (not all) the problem.  There's an old theory about the fastball:  use it or lose it.  Guys that fall in love with offspeed pitches over time tend to lose velocity on the fastball.  A good example right now with the Brewers is Villanueva.  Now Villanueva has a great change, but his fastball is sitting in the 87-90 range.  When he came up from the minors as a starter in 06 and 07, he was often hitting 91-92.

June 24, 2009 9:03 AM

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About This Blog

I'm Nicholas Zettel, and I've got the Junkball Blues. All I need for a cure is a sinkerball pitcher here, a curveball specialist there, and a bunch of guys with fastballs that top out in the high-80s. And those days when the knuckleball wasn't a speciality pitch, and pitchers simply kept one in their back pocket? That's what I'm talking about!

I write for Sportsbubbler.com, and this is the research I compile along the way. I love power-speed combo players, garbage time relievers, and the walking medicine cabinets that played baseball in the 1960s and 1970s, and got away with it.

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