Has it been this long?
After taking their latest 3-game series at Miller Park – nearly two months ago, the Brewers finally play the Cubs once again. Of course, the Brewers used their time away from the division rival wisely; on May 11, the Brewers were 18-14, the Cubs 17-14. Since, the Brewers are 24-22, the Cubs 20-24. That ever-so-slightly-above-.500 stretch by the Brewers (during the Cubs’ rough stretch due to injuries and offensive ineffectiveness) produced the slightest of margins in the standings.
So, if you want to look at it any particular way, think of these two teams as completely even, as they were two months ago, with a chance to once again turn their season in another direction.
Seth McClung (0-0, 5 G, 1 GS, 6.55 runs average, 2.20 IP/G; 0 quality starts) @ Ryan Dempster (0-2, 5 GS, 4.10 runs average, 6.14 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)
McClung pitched well in his first start of the season. I know, I know, 3 runs allowed in 4 innings is not good by any consideration or measurement, but look at how he approached the game. First, he began by working his fastball, and nothing but his fastball, to start the game. According to my scorecard from the game, McClung did not throw more than a handful of breaking balls or off-speed pitches through the first couple of frames.
During what could have been a disastrous 2nd inning, McClung really turned in a fantastic effort with men on base, limiting the damage with a key groundout to Prince, and then closing up the inning without allowing more than 2 runs to score. That entire sequence was the key to the game, which allowed the Brewers to stay close, allowing them to eventually tie the game after McClung left.
After his rocky inning, McClung slowed things down, throwing his breaking ball slower, and throwing more off-speed pitches in general. I think he showed a willingness to adjust when his fastball wasn’t getting the job done, and he recovered nicely to keep the game close, and hopefully stretch himself out for his next start.
Like his rotation-mate Carlos Zambrano, Dempster had a rough start to the season and is slowly coming around. Of course, he’s not pitching at his 2008 level, when he was a top ace in the NL, but Dempster is producing serviceable innings for the Cubs, hovering right around average. An interesting note: what was called a “change up” last year is now being classified as a “splitter” for Dempster – all in the name of neutralizing opposite-handed batters, I suppose.
Jeff Suppan (1-2, 5 GS, 5.33 runs average, 5.74 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Carlos Zambrano (1-1, 5 GS, 3.18 runs average, 6.80 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)
I almost feel as though I hammered home on Suppan’s quality start stretch one too many times. As he usually does, Suppan is following a strong, quality stretch with a few rough starts. So it goes, right?
Does anyone else find it funny that since his remarks about retiring, in the midst of his suspension, Zambrano is having the best stretch of his season?
Fact of the day: Behind Johan Santana and Brandon Webb, Zambrano has the best career Adjusted ERA+ (individual ERA compared to league average ERA) of active pitchers 30 or younger (with a cut off above 1000 innings or so).
Braden Looper (1-1, 5 GS, 6.11 runs average, 5.60 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Rich Harden (1-2, 4 GS, 5.41 runs average, 5.83 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)
It seems that everytime I write one of these, I expect Looper to be in the midst of a rough stretch, but really, his last 5 starts have been strong. He is in the midst of a two-consecutive quality start stretch, throwing the ball aggressively and attempting to get quick outs. On national television, he pitched a particularly strong start against the Mets, during which Orel Hershiser noted that Looper actually throws two splitters – a fast one, and a slow one.
Harden is starting to put things together against after returning from the disabled list. The righty is not pitching as his usual dominant self – although his approach hasn’t really changed. He remains a fastball (around 92 MPH) and change up specialist, using the latter “ghost pitch” to keep hitters off balance.
Mike Burns (1-1, 2 GS, 4.39 runs average, 6.15 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Ted Lilly (1-2, 5 GS, 3.78 runs average, 6.66 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)
Thus far, as a replacement, Burns turned in a tough debut start and a strong quality start, turning around his luck against the New York Mets. His approach is balanced, and he is simply working to throw strikes, which could serve as a strong lesson to the Brewers’ rotation in 2009 as a whole. Of course, the real benefit of his approach is that he balances his off-speed and breaking pitches (consisting of a curve, slider, and a split or change) against a fastball that he throws almost 59% of the time. Burns’ current stretch of starts is already the longest of his career in the big leagues, so there is a sense of adventure each time he takes the mound, as a player that can hopefully reclaim his career in his 30s.
Lilly is the Cubs’ most valuable pitcher, and it’s not really close. In terms of runs prevented, only he, Randy Wells, and Carlos Zambrano are notably above average, with Ryan Dempster right around average (2.1 RP), and Rich Harden and Sean Marshall below average. Thus far, Lilly is much more of a slider artist than a change up artist, relegating his most prominently featured career off-speed pitch to the bottom of his arsenal. There are no surprises with Lilly; no walks, good control, and changing speeds, throwing all of his pitches.