Has it been this long?

After taking their latest 3-game series at Miller Park – nearly two months ago, the Brewers finally play the Cubs once again. Of course, the Brewers used their time away from the division rival wisely; on May 11, the Brewers were 18-14, the Cubs 17-14. Since, the Brewers are 24-22, the Cubs 20-24. That ever-so-slightly-above-.500 stretch by the Brewers (during the Cubs’ rough stretch due to injuries and offensive ineffectiveness) produced the slightest of margins in the standings.

So, if you want to look at it any particular way, think of these two teams as completely even, as they were two months ago, with a chance to once again turn their season in another direction.

Seth McClung (0-0, 5 G, 1 GS, 6.55 runs average, 2.20 IP/G; 0 quality starts) @ Ryan Dempster (0-2, 5 GS, 4.10 runs average, 6.14 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)

McClung pitched well in his first start of the season. I know, I know, 3 runs allowed in 4 innings is not good by any consideration or measurement, but look at how he approached the game. First, he began by working his fastball, and nothing but his fastball, to start the game. According to my scorecard from the game, McClung did not throw more than a handful of breaking balls or off-speed pitches through the first couple of frames.

During what could have been a disastrous 2^nd inning, McClung really turned in a fantastic effort with men on base, limiting the damage with a key groundout to Prince, and then closing up the inning without allowing more than 2 runs to score. That entire sequence was the key to the game, which allowed the Brewers to stay close, allowing them to eventually tie the game after McClung left.

After his rocky inning, McClung slowed things down, throwing his breaking ball slower, and throwing more off-speed pitches in general. I think he showed a willingness to adjust when his fastball wasn’t getting the job done, and he recovered nicely to keep the game close, and hopefully stretch himself out for his next start.

Like his rotation-mate Carlos Zambrano, Dempster had a rough start to the season and is slowly coming around. Of course, he’s not pitching at his 2008 level, when he was a top ace in the NL, but Dempster is producing serviceable innings for the Cubs, hovering right around average. An interesting note: what was called a “change up” last year is now being classified as a “splitter” for Dempster – all in the name of neutralizing opposite-handed batters, I suppose.

Jeff Suppan (1-2, 5 GS, 5.33 runs average, 5.74 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Carlos Zambrano (1-1, 5 GS, 3.18 runs average, 6.80 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)

I almost feel as though I hammered home on Suppan’s quality start stretch one too many times. As he usually does, Suppan is following a strong, quality stretch with a few rough starts. So it goes, right?

Does anyone else find it funny that since his remarks about retiring, in the midst of his suspension, Zambrano is having the best stretch of his season?

Fact of the day: Behind Johan Santana and Brandon Webb, Zambrano has the best career Adjusted ERA+ (individual ERA compared to league average ERA) of active pitchers 30 or younger (with a cut off above 1000 innings or so).

Braden Looper (1-1, 5 GS, 6.11 runs average, 5.60 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Rich Harden (1-2, 4 GS, 5.41 runs average, 5.83 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

It seems that everytime I write one of these, I expect Looper to be in the midst of a rough stretch, but really, his last 5 starts have been strong. He is in the midst of a two-consecutive quality start stretch, throwing the ball aggressively and attempting to get quick outs. On national television, he pitched a particularly strong start against the Mets, during which Orel Hershiser noted that Looper actually throws two splitters – a fast one, and a slow one.

Harden is starting to put things together against after returning from the disabled list. The righty is not pitching as his usual dominant self – although his approach hasn’t really changed. He remains a fastball (around 92 MPH) and change up specialist, using the latter “ghost pitch” to keep hitters off balance.

Mike Burns (1-1, 2 GS, 4.39 runs average, 6.15 IP/GS; 1 quality start) @ Ted Lilly (1-2, 5 GS, 3.78 runs average, 6.66 IP/GS; 4 quality starts)

Thus far, as a replacement, Burns turned in a tough debut start and a strong quality start, turning around his luck against the New York Mets. His approach is balanced, and he is simply working to throw strikes, which could serve as a strong lesson to the Brewers’ rotation in 2009 as a whole. Of course, the real benefit of his approach is that he balances his off-speed and breaking pitches (consisting of a curve, slider, and a split or change) against a fastball that he throws almost 59% of the time. Burns’ current stretch of starts is already the longest of his career in the big leagues, so there is a sense of adventure each time he takes the mound, as a player that can hopefully reclaim his career in his 30s.

Lilly is the Cubs’ most valuable pitcher, and it’s not really close. In terms of runs prevented, only he, Randy Wells, and Carlos Zambrano are notably above average, with Ryan Dempster right around average (2.1 RP), and Rich Harden and Sean Marshall below average. Thus far, Lilly is much more of a slider artist than a change up artist, relegating his most prominently featured career off-speed pitch to the bottom of his arsenal. There are no surprises with Lilly; no walks, good control, and changing speeds, throwing all of his pitches.

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I think that when people state that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, they don’t seriously understand just how good he is, and just how far ahead he is, compared to his competition.

Not only is Santana the best pitcher in baseball, he is just entering his 30-year-old season -- placing him in a category of young aces that we can reasonably expect to watch for a good portion of the next decade; he is the only active pitcher at age 30 or younger to boast multiple seasons on the list of most-valuable seasons from 1954-present.

One way to judge pitchers is to utilize ERA+, which measures individual ERA against league ERA, presenting the result on a scale of 100+ (100 = average, +100 = above average). Looking at the top career ERA+ of active pitchers 30 or younger, we can see that Santana tops the list (although it is close, with Brandon Webb).

Top Career ERA+ (active, 30 or younger)

1. Johan Santana (144 ERA+)

2. Brandon Webb (142 ERA+)

3. Carlos Zambrano (127 ERA+)

4. Mark Buehrle (123 ERA+)

5. Danny Haren (123 ERA+)

6. C.C. Sabathia (121 ERA+)

7. Jake Peavy (119 ERA+)

8. Josh Beckett (117 ERA+)

9. Ben Sheets (116 ERA+)

10. John Lackey (115 ERA+)

Another way to measure pitchers is individual VORP, or Value Over Replacement Pitcher, which counts the number of runs above or below average for an individual player. For pitchers, VORP is based around the number of runs prevented against the league average, gauged over time (i.e., IP).

Here we can see that Santana is clearly separated from his peers. Whereas he posted one VORP above 80, and three over 70, only one of his active-list competitors can boast even one VORP above 70 (although a disclaimer should note that the Sabathia trade last year split-up a good season that probably would have been around 70-75 on the VORP scale).

Best seasons by pitchers under age 30, 1999-2008

1. Pedro Martinez, 2000 (116.7)

2. Pedro Martinez, 1999 (102.3)

3. Johan Santana, 2004 (89.5)

4. Derek Lowe, 2002 (80.8)

5. Johan Santana, 2006 (79.6)

6. Jake Peavy, 2007 (77.0)

7. Cliff Lee, 2008 (76.5)

8. Barry Zito, 2002 (75.3)

9. Tim Hudson, 2003 (75.2)

10. Kevin Millwood, 1999 (74.7)

11. Johan Santana, 2008 (73.6)

12. Johan Santana, 2005 (73.0)

13. Roy Oswalt, 2006 (72.4)

14. Tim Hudson, 2002 (72.3)

15. Tim Lincecum, 2008 (72.3)

16. Joe Mays, 2001 (71.5)

17. Roy Halladay, 2003 (71.2)

18. [deleted, Roy Halladay, 2008]

19. Freddy Garcia, 2001 (70.4)

20. Brandon Webb, 2006 (68.9)

21. Roy Halladay, 2006 (68.0)

22. Mark Prior, 2003 (66.9)

23. Roy Halladay, 2002 (66.4)

24. Brandon Webb, 2007 (66.1)

25. Brad Radke, 1999 (65.7)

26. Dontrelle Willis, 2005 (65.2)

27. C.C. Sabathia, 2007 (65.2)

28. Roy Oswalt, 2005 (65.1)

29. Ben Sheets, 2004 (65.0)

30. Bronson Arroyo, 2006 (64.9)

31. Fausto Carmona, 2007 (64.0)

32. Carlos Zambrano, 2004 (62.8)

33. Brad Penny, 2007 (61.7)

34. Mark Buehrle, 2002 (61.5)

35. Mark Mulder, 2002 (61.4)

36. Jarred Washburn, 2002 (60.9)

37. John Lackey, 2007 (60.7)

38. Carl Pavano, 2004 (60.6)

39. Mike Hampton, 2000 (60.4)

Best Pitchers with Most Valuable Seasons – Under Age 30:

Pedro Martinez (2): 116.7, 102.3

Johan Santana (4): 89.5, 79.6, 73.6, 73.0

Tim Hudson (2): 75.2, 72.3

Roy Oswalt (2): 72.4, 65.1

Roy Halladay (4): 71.2, 70.6, 68.0, 66.4

Brandon Webb (2): 68.9, 66.1

To give you an idea about how good a VORP above 70 or 80 is, note that since 1954 there have been 315 VORP seasons above 60; however, when you raise the VORP to 75, there have only been 94 VORP seasons at or above 75 since 1954. This means that of the VORP seasons at or above 60 (since 1954), a full 70% of those seasons fell between 60 and 75. So, if VORP postings above 60 indicate good, ace-quality value, reaching that 75 mark (or higher) indicates truly elite pitching.

85 or above? Only 32 seasons since 1954 reached that level.

Compare Webb with Santana more closely then; while their career ERA+ are similar (Santana in approx. 1600 IP, Webb in approx. 1300 IP), we can see that their individual best seasons are not close. Webb’s two best seasons are very valuable marks of 66.1 and 68.9; Santana boasts four VORP seasons above those marks.

The same goes for Peavy, Sabathia, Sheets, Zambrano, Buehrle, Beckett, Lackey, and Haren.

Santana’s final claim to elite status, over and above his peers, is his standing on that all-time, elite season list:

1. Pedro Martinez, 2000 (116.7)         217 IP,            291 ERA+,      0.74 WHIP, 284 K/32 BB

2. Roger Clemens, 1997 (116.3)         264 IP,            221 ERA+,      1.03 WHIP, 292 K/68 BB

3. Pedro Martinez, 1999 (102.3)         213.3 IP,         243 ERA+,   0.92 WHIP, 313 K/37 BB

4. Sandy Koufax, 1966 (99.8)            323 IP,             190 ERA+,     0.99 WHIP,  317 K/77 BB

5. Randy Johnson, 1999 (99.3)           271.7 IP,          186 ERA+, 1.02 WHIP, 364 K/70 BB

6. Dwight Gooden, 1985 (99.3)         276.7 IP,            228 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP, 268 K/69 BB

7. Jim Palmer, 1975 (98.7)                  323 IP,            169 ERA+,     1.03 WHIP, 193 K/80 BB

8. Pat Hentgen, 1996 (98.2)                265.7 IP,          155 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 177 K/94 BB

9. Steve Carlton, 1972 (97.3)              346.3 IP,          182 ERA+,  0.99 WHIP, 310 K/87 BB

10. Ron Guidry, 1978 (94.6)              273.7 IP,           208 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 248 K/72 BB

11. Greg Maddux, 1995 (94.2)           209.7 IP,           262 ERA+, 0.81 WHIP, 181 K/23 BB

12. Roger Clemens, 1987 (92.8)         281.7 IP,           154 ERA+, 1.18 WHIP, 256 K/83 BB

13. Dean Chance, 1964 (92.8)            278.3 IP,            198 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 207 K/86 BB

14. Randy Johnson, 2001 (90.8)         249.7 IP,          188 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP, 372 K/71 BB

15. Johan Santana, 2004 (89.5)           228 IP,            183 ERA+,     0.92 WHIP, 265 K/54 BB

16. Tom Seaver, 1971 (88.9)               286.3 IP,        193 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 289 K/61 BB

17. Jim Palmer, 1976 (88.7)                315 IP,            130 ERA+,     1.08 WHIP, 159 K/84 BB

18. Greg Maddux, 1997 (88.5)           232.7 IP,          189 ERA+, 0.95 WHIP, 177 K/20 BB

19. Kevin Brown, 1996 (88.4)            233 IP,            216 ERA+,     0.94 WHIP, 159 K/33 BB

20. Bob Gibson, 1969 (88.3)              314 IP,            164 ERA+,     1.10 WHIP, 269 K/95 BB

21. Sandy Koufax, 1963 (88.1)          311 IP,             159 ERA+,     0.88 WHIP, 306 K/58 BB

22. Tom Seaver, 1973 (87.7)               290 IP,           175 ERA+,     0.98 WHIP, 251 K/64 BB

23. Pedro Martinez, 1997 (87.6)         241.3 IP,         219 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP, 305 K/67 BB

24. Randy Johnson, 1995 (87.5)         214.3 IP,         192 ERA+, 1.05 WHIP, 294 K/65 BB

25. Vida Blue, 1971 (87.4)                 312 IP,            185 ERA+,     0.95 WHIP, 301 K/88 BB

26. Sandy Koufax, 1965 (87.4)          335.7 IP,          160 ERA+, 0.86 WHIP, 382 K/71 BB

27. Jim Palmer, 1973 (86.3)                293.3 IP,         156 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 158 K/113 BB

28. Roger Clemens, 1998 (86.3)         234.7 IP,          174 ERA+,  1.10 WHIP, 271 K/88 BB

29. Early Wynn, 1956 (85.7)              277.7 IP,          154 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP, 158 K/91 BB

30. Bob Gibson, 1968 (85.4)              304.7 IP,         258 ERA+, 0.85 WHIP, 268 K/62 BB

31. Jimmy Key, 1987 (85.4)               261 IP,           164 ERA+,     1.06 WHIP, 161 K/66 BB

32. Randy Johnson, 2000 (85.0)         248.7 IP,        181 ERA+, 1.12 WHIP, 347 K/76 BB

Resources:

Most Valuable Pitching Seasons, 1954-2007. The Junkball Blues.

Most Valuable Pitching Seasons by pitchers under 30, 1999-2008. The Junkball Blues.

Baseball Prospectus, VORP for Pitchers. 2008 MLB.

Baseball Reference, Active Leaders for Adjusted Career ERA+.

I am sorry this is late -- I forgot to submit it before rushing off to work early.

***

Fernando Nieve (3-0, 4 G, 3 GS, 1.31 runs average, 5.18 IP/G; 3 quality starts) @ Braden Looper (0-1, 5 GS, 7.18 runs average, 5.26 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

Sometimes the most quiet of moves make the loudest noise once they hit the big leagues; enter Fernando Nieve. The slider-balling righty was claimed off of waivers by the Mets in spring training, and has provided phenomenal performances in the absence of Jon Maine and Oliver Perez. A lot of times, we spend so much time complaining about injury-plagued times, or times wrought with ineffectiveness, that we forget the benefits of hard times: sometimes a player takes the chance provided to him during those times and turns in special performances.

After a troublesome stretch, Looper pitched a quality start in his last outing, hopefully a sign of things to come for the right-hander. The splitter expert is throwing his fastball(s) much less frequently in 2009 than 2008, leaving his splitter to fill an incredibly prominent role. With Bush out to injury and Parra to ineffectiveness, Looper is the next Brewers pitcher on the slippery slope to accountability, and although the veteran is pitching as a #4 starter for the Brewers, the growing sense seems to be that the Brewers need him to reclaim the approach that made him one of the top #3 starts in 2008 NL.

Johan Santana (2-3, 5 GS, 6.24 runs average, 6.06 IP/GS; 3 quality starts) @ Mike Burns (0-1, 1 GS, 6.32 runs average, 5.70 IP/GS; 0 quality starts)

Where did the best pitcher in baseball go? In the midst of injury problems plaguing the Mets’ rotation, their #1 ace, the most valuable pitcher in the league, fell off of the face of the earth, replaced by someone with much more human numbers. I suppose we cannot always expect aces to be effective all the time, or to have their best stuff all the time, or to consistently dominate – hardly anyone is that good; but after all of these years, I guess it’s just surprising to see Santana put together a prolonged stretch of tough starts.

Mr. Replacement gets yet another chance to rest up the Brewers’ bullpen, and to fill a void, to potentially keep the universe from collapsing in on itself – or, at the very least, the Brewers’ rotation. The righty could probably serve as a role model for the remainder of the rotation: he throws his fastball frequently, and therefore relegates his secondary pitches to their rightful status as secondary pitches. This pitcher prefers secondary pitchers of the curving and “splitting” variety; on the verge of turning 31 (fittingly, on the day the Bastille was raided), Burns once again receives a shot to grab his career, and to steady it. To force the issue, staying in the major leagues.

Mike Pelfrey (1-2, 5 GS, 8.18 runs average, 5.06 IP/GS; 0 quality starts) @ Yovani Gallardo (3-2, 5 GS, 2.20 runs average, 6.54 IP/GS; 3 quality starts)

I really, really like FanGraphs. Fantastic website, with nice, brief, thought provoking articles, and some of the best scouting-stats on the planet (their plate discipline and pitch selection stats are incredibly useful for displaying the actual nuts and bolts of baseball performance). However, my only complaint is that they fail to distinguish between the 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs in their pitch selection sections; I understand that while they could not possibly capture all the instances of a pitcher doing something different with his approach on a certain pitch in a certain situation, posting one simple average fastball fails to capture the true approach of a pitcher such as Mike Pelfrey, who will feature a couple of different fastballs, at different velocities, different movements, which explains exactly how he throws his fastball nearly 80% of the time.

Gallardo provides a perfect example for how pitch counts should be viewed with young pitchers. In the first case, we should view skeptically pitch counts that approach 130. But, we should not equate that skepticism with condemning working deep into ballgames. And, we should not equate that skepticism with a certain “hard” pitch count that is always good – for instance, 100 pitches in 7 innings is fantastic, passable in 6, and awful in 5. 115 pitches in 5 is unacceptable, in 6 innings is awful, and in 7 is passable. Working into the 8^th, recording outs into the 8^th, on fewer than 120 pitches? That’s very strong. What I would like to see more of is equating pitch counts with efficiency in actual big league games.

I hate to see a young arm consistently work through 5 innings on 100 pitches much more than I am concerned with a young arm that works between 7-8 innings on 110-120 pitches. While hard pitch counts in some cases can help pitchers, I feel as though the pitch count movement should gravitate towards rolling pitch counts, which lead managers to pull pitchers earlier when they are struggling to finish 5 innings in fewer than 90 pitches, and encourage managers to allow youngsters to work into (and through) the 8^th into the 120 pitch range.

More of the same; the fans still think the Brewers are probably a bad team, but that’s old hat. That’s occurred since December. Now, of course, the trick is convincing people that when you lose the effectiveness of two starters almost simultaneously, you’re going to hit some rough times.

This coming stretch of games, over the next 3-4 weeks, is a crucial point for the Brewers. Not to win, not to lose, but to stay put; to stay even. With two rotational replacements inked for the moment, there is no better time for the Brewers to simply stay the course, win in whatever ways possible.

I think people underrate the effect losing two starters that opened the season as rotational mainstays. That surely does not mean a team is bad, but to those that would like to be convinced of its truth, there is usually no better time to point out that the team looks bad.

Matt Cain (4-0, 5 GS, 2.33 runs average, 6.94 IP/GS; 4 quality starts) @ Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 5 GS, 2.67 runs average, 6.06 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

Let’s call this a power match-up: two of the Top 10 NL pitchers (minimum 64 IP) face one another to open the series; both are on rather strong stretches as well, although Gallardo’s outings are a touch shorter than those of Cain.

Cain is so good because of the simplicity of the whole operation: 92 MPH fastball, change, curve, slider, thrown at rather equal clips. The 75 MPH curve is Cain’s main off-speed choice, followed by the 86 MPH change and the 85 MPH slider. Few hits, a touch high on the walks, but that’s obviously not hurting his overall results. A “regular” righty, meat and potatoes ace.

Gallardo put together one of his first efficient and long starts when he took the hill in Detroit. The righty really only has two other outings this season that were more efficient than his 107 pitch, 7 IP effort in Hockeytown: in consecutive starts from April 24 to April 29, Gallardo collected his first complete game in 106 pitches, and then followed that with a 116 pitch, 8 inning affair. If Gallardo can keep this kind of efficiency, his consistency will follow, and his pitch workload will immensely improve.

Barry Zito (3-2, 5 GS, 5.60 runs average, 5.46 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Seth McClung (0-0, 5 G, 5.63 runs average, 1.60 IP/GS; n/a quality starts)

It seems rather odd, but talk of Zito’s fastball slowing down seem really over-exaggerated. Given the way people talk about him, I thought that he used to throw 88 or 89 consistently, but really, it couldn’t have been that consistent; during his great years in Oakland, he averaged 87 MPH at his very best, and sat around 86 in his last season on the other side of the bay. His first two seasons in San Francisco saw his fastball drop to 84-85 MPH (closer to 85 MPH last year), and now he’s back up between 86 and 87. Oddly enough, he is now featuring a third breaking / off-speed pitch, which comes in between 79 and 80 MPH, and he throws it more frequently than his bloop curveball (which is now thrown as hard as ever).

Big Seth McClung, one of last year’s rotational heroes, one of last year’s best swingmen in the NL, one of Brewers’ fans new favorite folk heroes, the kind that roams the mountaintops so heartily and leave footprints so large that entire rivers following in his trail; big Seth McClung is at it again. With Bush on the DL with a microtear, McClung takes over and looks to accomplish precisely what he did last year: work consistently out of the rotation, keep the team in games, and pitch a few quality starts in the meantime.

Jonathan Sanchez (0-4, 5 GS, 7.59 runs average, 4.74 IP/GS; 0 quality starts) @ Jeff Suppan (2-1, 5 GS, 4.50 runs average, 5.60 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

One swingman in, another one out? America’s favorite erratic left-hander west of the Mississippi, Sanchez is pitching for his rotational life. Manager Bruce Bochy says that it’s all in the breaking balls and change ups, or more specifically, Sanchez’s inability to control them. Of course, it would help if he threw them. In a distinctly anti-Manny Parra breakthrough, Sanchez throws his fastball over 70% of the time, and splits time equally between his breaking ball and change up.

Suppan’s stretch of serviceable, quality starts was snapped during a 5 inning, 7 run affair against the Twins, but we should not despair yet. Suppan showed signs of cracking on May 26, too, during a 3.7 inning, 5 run affair against the Cardinals. From that outing, he returned with four straight serviceable and quality starts, allowing only 7 runs in 23 innings.

Researching the Twins' starters this year, I have found a lot of things intriguing about them. Here are their pitch selections (data from FanGraphs):

Kevin Slowey: 89 MPH fastball (69.2%), 84 MPH slider (13.5%), 83 MPH change and 74 MPH curve (around 8.5% each)

Glen Perkins: 89 MPH fastball (67.2%), 82 MPH slider (16.5%), 81 MPH change (16%)

Nick Blackburn: 90 MPH fastball (62.3%), 86 MPH cutter (22.3%), 77 MPH curveball (10.5%)

Scott Baker: 91 MPH fastball (60.7%), 83 MPH slider (22.4%), 78 MPH curve, 84 MPH change (around 8% each)

Francisco Liriano: 91 MPH fastball (58.3%), 86 MPH slider (26.7%), 84 MPH change (15%)

By contrast:

Yovani Gallardo: 92 MPH fastball (61.1%), 80 MPH curveball (24.5%), 85 MPH slider (8.9%), 85 MPH change (5.8%)

Manny Parra: 91 MPH fastball (55.9%), 83 MPH change (21.3%), 76 MPH curve (13.5%), 83 MPH splitter (8.6%)

Jeff Suppan: 87 MPH fastball (52%), 83 MPH slider (20.2%), 81 MPH change (16.5%), 72 MPH curve (11.2%)

Braden Looper: 89 MPH fastball (50.6%), 82 MPH splitter (32.9%), 84 MPH slider (16.5%)

Dave Bush: 88 MPH fastball (49.6%), 67 MPH curveball (18.6%), 85 MPH cutter (15.8%), 82 MPH slider and 82 MPH change (around 7.5-8.5% each)

 Here are the overall starting pitching lines:

2009 Twins rotation:  71 GS, 429.3 IP, 295 K/115 BB; 4.72 runs average

2009 Brewers rotation: 69 GS, 388.7 IP, 295 K/161 BB; 5.28 runs average

 A few things:

-Notice that although the Crew strike out batters more frequently, they walk them even more frequently.

-Notice that four Brewers starters have a secondary pitch at or over 20% plus a third pitch around or over 15%. Only one Twins starter features both a secondary pitch over 20% plus a third pitch around or over 15%. The rest of their starters either don't have a secondary pitch at or over 20%, or don't have a third pitch over 10%.

The direct consequence of throwing fewer fastballs is throwing more breaking pitches or change ups. In only two cases does this not apply (Bush and Blackburn) because they both prominently feature a cutter, or second fastball. (I am not counting a splitter with an 8 MPH differential as a fastball here, in the case of Looper).

-Three Twins pitchers feature the fastball at or above 62% of the time.  Two of them feature it above 67% of the time. One Brewers starter features the fastball at or above 60%.

-Four of the Twins starters feature the slider as their secondary pitch. The only one that doesn't (Blackburn) throws a cutter. 

 Two thoughts:

-It is clear that the organizational approach of the Twins has yielded a collection of similar-minded, coherent, cohesive slider/fastball pitchers who work with their fastballs rather prominently, and do not mess around with multiple pitches.

-The Brewers, it seems to me, suffer from a lack of direction with their fastballs, along with a robust collection of secondary pitches. Compared to the Twins' starters, who use a fastball and a slider almost to a fault, the Brewers' starters look downright disorganized, using their fastball less and then brag two curveballs, a slider, a splitter, and a change up as their secondary pitch.

 I have long thought that someone like Parra could benefit from a less-is-more approach, and feature just two of his pitches, rather than all four (and thus use his fastball smarter, more aggressively, and more frequently). But maybe this approach could be employed by the entire staff, and especially Jason Kendall. I have little doubt in my mind that Kendall's game-calling is well-reflected here -- tailored to each pitcher's breaking ball or change up, rather than employing a staff-wide ideology, and featuring the fastball almost so infrequently that that pitch selection conjures up images of that once-famous Harvey Wallbangers catcher that was such a fastball hitter that he prominently called breaking balls.

Something must change with Brewers pitchers: they must use their fastballs more, and more effectively, and they must cut some of their breaking balls or change ups, and focus on throwing one or two pitches well, rather than three or four pedestrian pitches.

Pitching Match-ups:

Francisco Liriano (0-3, 5 GS, 5.67 runs average, 5.40 IP/GS; 2 quality starts) @ Jeff Suppan (2-1, 5 GS, 4.04 runs average, 5.34 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

Liriano looks to continually improve his endurance, as well as his performance, in order to reclaim his performance that preceded his injury issues. He’s not quite the fireballer we remember; his fastball averages between 91 and 92 now, meaning that that wicked slider comes in slower, too.

At a time when he is most needed, Suppan has consistently worked quality starts as well as good “non”-quality starts. The junkballer is working his stuff off of the corners and out of the zone, switching his pitches enough to keep batters off balance, giving the Brewers an excellent chance to win.

Nick Blackburn (3-0, 5 GS, 2.19 runs average, 7.40 IP/GS; 5 quality starts) @ Braden Looper (1-1, 5 GS. 6.59 runs average, 5.46 IP/GS; 2 quality starts)

Over 84% of his pitches selected are fastballs, including a “cut” variety, and his recent results could hardly be any better: the righty is working consistently deep into games, keeping scoring down, and therefore gaining his fair share of wins on behalf of the Twins.

While the big story is Bush’s fatigue, Looper’s performance has also dropped off, especially his IP/GS. The splitter-pitcher is working relatively short outings and not limiting his runs allowed especially well.

Scott Baker (2-1, 5 GS, 3.97 runs average, 6.80 IP/GS; 4 quality starts) @ TBA / Dave Bush (0-3, 5 GS, 10.56 runs average, 4.26 IP/GS; 0 quality starts)

After a tough start, Baker seems to have reclaimed his magic, working consistent quality starts and working deep into games. Closing the series, Baker might be a perfect example of the Twins’ pitching approach with his fastball and slider; only Liriano throws his slider more frequently on the Twins.

This start is marked TBA, should the Brewers decided to rest the fatigued Bush’s arm.