Milwaukee Brewers Blog - The Junkball Blues : Ben Sheets

Pitching with two outs....

radio silence — Tue, 20 May 2008 16:44:27 GMT

Here is a link to a story I wrote for SportsBubbler's Brewers page about the Brewers starting pitching. Specifically, I analyzed the results of our starters' approaches with two outs recorded in an inning; I recorded the R, H, BB, E, and HBP allowed once two outs were recorded. Somewhat surprisingly, there was actually a significant trend in Brewers losses vs. Brewers wins: our starting pitchers systematically allow more R and BB during losses when two outs are recorded, versus wins. Perhaps not surprisingly, our pitchers that do not have the strongest stuff allow the most runs with two outs already recorded (Suppan, Bush, Villanueva), and our pitchers with stronger stuff allow fewer runs with two outs recorded (Parra, Sheets). Gallardo's sample of starts is really too small to conclude anything significant, although he also tended to allow fewer runs with two outs recorded than his counterpart.

Here are the stats:

Dave Bush: 16 H, 5 BB, 2 E, 15 R (39% H, 28% BB, 50% R)

April 3, 2008 (@ ChC) (L): 1 BB, 1 R

April 9, 2008 (vs. Cin) (L): 0 H, 1 E, 2 R

April 15, 2008 (@ StL) (L): 4 H, 3 R

April 23, 2008 (vs. Phi) (W): 3 H, 1 R

May 7, 2008 (@ Fla) (L): 3 H, 1 BB, 3 R

May 12, 2008 (vs. StL) (W): 3 H, 1 BB, 1 R

May 17, 2008 (@ Bos, 2) (L): 3 H, 2 BB, 1 E, 4 R

Carlos Villanueva: 18 H, 8 BB, 2 E, 12 R (28% H, 50% BB, 32% R)

April 4, 2008 (vs. SF) (W): 3 H, 2 BB, 0 R

April 10, 2008 (vs. Cin) (L): 1 BB, 0 R

April 16, 2008 (@ StL) (L): 1 H, 0 R

April 21, 2008 (vs. StL) (L): 2 H, 4 BB, 2 R

April 26, 2008 (vs. Fla) (W): 1 H, 1 E, 0 R

May 3, 2008 (@ Hou) (L): 1 H, 0 R

May 8, 2008 (@ Fla) (L): 5 H, 1 BB, 1 E, 6 R

May 13, 2008 (vs. LAD) (W): 3 H, 2 R

May 18, 2008 (@ Bos) (L): 2 H, 2 R

Jeff Suppan: 18 H, 8 BB, 1 HBP, 10 R (29% H, 38% BB, 32% R)

April 2, 2008 (@ ChC) (W): 4 H, 0 R

April 8, 2008 (vs. Cin) (W): 4 H, 1 BB, 1 R

April 13, 2008 (@ NYM) (W): 1 H, 1 R

April 19, 2008 (@ Cin) (W): 1 H, 1 BB, 0 R

April 24, 2008 (vs. Phi) (L): 1 H, 1 BB, 0 R

April 30, 2008 (@ ChC) (L): 2 H, 1 R

May 6, 2008 (@ Fla) (L): 2 H, 1 BB, 2 R

May 11, 2008 (vs. StL) (W): 1 H, 2 BB, 1 R

May 17, 2008 (@ Bos, 1) (L): 2 H, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 4 R

Ben Sheets: 13 H, 6 BB, 1 E, 3 R (31% H, 50% BB, 15% R)

March 31, 2008 (@ ChC) (W): 2 BB, 0 R

April 6, 2008 (vs. SF) (W): 3 H, 0 R

April 12, 2008 (@ NYM) (W): 2 H, 1 BB, 1 R

April 18, 2008 (@ Cin) (W): x

April 29, 2008 (@ ChC) (W): 2 BB, 0 R

May 4, 2008 (@ Hou) (L): 3 H, 1 E, 2 R

May 10, 2008 (vs. StL) (L): 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R

May 15, 2008 (vs. LAD) (L): 1 H, 0 R

Yovani Gallardo: 4 H, 2 BB, 1 R (21% H, 33% BB, 25% R)

April 20, 2008 (@ Cin) (L): 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R

April 25, 2008 (vs. Fla) (L): 1 H, 0 R

May 1, 2008 (@ ChC) (W): 1 H, 1 R

Manny Parra: 12 H, 4 BB, 2 E, 4 R (25% H, 18% BB, 16% R)

April 5, 2008 (vs. SF) (W): x

April 11, 2008 (@ NYM) (L): x

April 17, 2008 (@ StL) (W): x

April 22, 2008 (vs. StL) (W): 4 H, 1 E, 1 R

April 27, 2008 (vs. Fla) (L): 3 H, 2 BB, 0 R

May 3, 2008 (@ Hou) (L): 2 H, 1 BB, 0 R

May 9, 2008 (vs. StL) (W): 1 H, 1 R

May 14, 2008 (vs. LAD) (L): 2 H, 1 BB, 1 E, 2 R

Wins: 35 H, 12 BB, 2 E, 11 R with two outs recorded

Losses: 46 H, 20 BB, 4 E, 1 HBP, 34 R with two outs recorded

Part of me wonders if we can isolate the problems with two outs recorded to scouting approaches, pitching plans, or perhaps even composure on the mound. I suppose it's not entirely implausible that runs are likely to score with two outs -- after all, while the first two outs of an inning are recorded, teams can advance runners, or string together a walk or hit earlier in the inning, and cash that run in later. However, part of me thinks that this is one aspect of the pitching that stands out -- some of our starters are not merely allowing runners that are already on base to score with two outs; rather, they record two outs, and then allow home runs, or allow walks and hits after the outs are recorded.

Given the Brewers' recent fortunes, I believe there is a lot that we can analyze and find concern with; this is one aspect of our team's performance that is affecting the Brewers' ability to remain competitive in each and every game.

The 2004 Ratio?

radio silence — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 15:57:00 GMT

Don't ask me how, but Sheets' strike outs are climbing after recovering that arm slot that was used earlier in his career; and, there's a correlation between ground ball out% and K/9 IP for Sheets...

GO/AO

2004: 216 GO, 223 AO; 49%

2005: 137 GO, 190 AO; 42%

2006: 91 GO, 108 AO; 46%

2007: 131 GO, 184 AO; 42%

2008: 24 GO, 25 AO; 49%

K/9 IP

2004: 10.02

2005: 8.09

2006: 9.85

2007: 6.75

2008: 7.83

Sheets is striking more than one batter per game out in 2008 than in 2007, which is a good sign to go along with his arm angle recovery and "comfortable" GO/AO ratio. He's nowhere near his 2004-2006 ratios, but getting over that threshold of 7.00 K/9 IP is a good start, and he's getting closer to 8.00 K/9 IP....

The Value of Ben Sheets

radio silence — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 15:42:00 GMT

With Sheets' walk year in full effect, there are numerous debates about what the Brewers should do with their ace right hander. Some say trade, some say let him walk, and some say sign, and there's a lot of in-between.The issue is often complicated by comparing Sheets' production to a position player's, or pointing out that we need to keep our position players (perhaps more than we need to keep Sheets).

So, I dove into Sheets' post-breakout game logs, and asked myself this question: how many batters does a pitcher that pitches better than 2/3 quality starts face during those quality starts throughout a season.

Here's what I found:

2004: 23 QS, 641 PA

2005: 16 QS, 473 PA

2006: 11 QS, 297 PA

2007: 14 QS, 381 PA

Quality starts: 64 QS, 1792 PA

Total: 97 GS, 2592 PA

The value in Sheets, I take it, is that in a full season he is likely to pitch well over 20 quality starts, and during those quality starts he will face almost as many batters as an everyday player that bats 1-3 (ex., Prince Fielder went to the plate 681 times in 2007).

So, not only does a starting pitcher face more batters in an entire season than an everyday player accumulates PA; a high quality start pitcher like Sheets will face almost as many batters in his quality starts alone as most batters face in an entire season (or very near that number...)