Milwaukee Brewers Blog - The Junkball Blues : Milwaukee Brewers offense

Plate Approaches II

radio silence — Wed, 21 May 2008 23:12:10 GMT

I'm going to try and update the plate approaches of our team every two weeks or so, and suggest different types of line ups based on our approaches.

As I did in the first post on this topic, I am using five stats to attempt to measure a good plate approach: OBP, NP/PA, H/PA, BB/PA, and XBH/H. Basically, I am assuming that with a good plate approach a batter looks to get on base (OBP), take some pitches to find his best pitch to hit (NP/PA), attempt to hit (H/PA) or be ready to take a walk (BB/PA) -- and perhaps know the balance between those approaches, and finally, drive the ball (XBH/H). Obviously not every one of those elements is evident in every single plate approach, but I imagine that if we constructed a list of players with good plate approaches, we would find most of them successfully complete tasks such as getting on base, having a balanced approach, and sometimes driving the ball. Not only do we want players that get on base, but we want players that get to second base safely.

So, with that said, here are the most recent stat listings of our regular 8 thus far:

OBP

1. Fielder .363

2. Hart .356

3. Kendall .344

4. Weeks .330

5. Braun .321

6. Hardy .321

7. Cameron .313

8. Hall .286

NP/PA

1. Hall 4.26 (779/183)

2. Cameron 4.23 (351/83)

3. Weeks 4.04 (820/203)

4. Hardy 3.98 (673/169)

5. Fielder 3.87 (747/193)

6. Kendall 3.69 (583/158)

7. Hart 3.59 (653/182)

8. Braun 3.55 (695/196)

BB/PA

1. Fielder 12.95% (25/193)

2. Weeks 12.81% (26/203)

3. Cameron 10.84% (9/83)

4. Hardy 10.06% (17/169)

5. Hall 8.74% (16/183)

6. Kendall 7.59% (12/158)

7. Hart 6.04% (11/182)

8. Braun 4.08% (8/196)

H/PA

1. Braun 28.06% (55/196)

2. Hart 27.47% (50/182)

3. Kendall 23.42% (37/158)

4. Hardy 21.89% (37/169)

5. Fielder 21.24% (41/193)

6. Cameron 20.48% (17/83)

7. Hall 18.58% (34/183)

8. Weeks 16.75% (34/203)

XBH/H

1. Cameron 52.94% (9/17)

2. Braun 50.91% (28/55)

3. Hall 47.06% (16/34)

4. Fielder 39.02% (16/41)

5. Weeks 35.29% (12/34)

6. Kendall 29.73% (11/37)

7. Hart 28.00% (14/50)

8. Hardy 21.62% (8/37)

Placing all of these stats together, and ranking the players, we get the following ranking of plate approaches:

Plate Approaches (total)

1. Fielder 16

2. Cameron 19

3. Weeks 22

4. Kendall 24 (.344)

5. Braun 24 (.321)

6. Hall 24 (.286)

7. Hart 25

8. Hardy 26

Fielder's plate approach is tops, and Cameron's is high despite a low OBP because of his relative balance between H and BB, his ability to hit extra bases with high frequency, and his patience. Then follow Weeks and Kendall, with Braun moving to fifth because of his OBP and patience, although he is the best pure hitter and near the top for extra base hits. Rounding out the bottom of the order are Hall, Hart, and Hardy. Hart is near the bottom, even though he has a high OBP, because he does not have a balanced approach between H and BB, he does not see a lot of pitches, and he is not hitting extra base hits frequently.

Here are some other variation line ups:

First, let's look at the best line up that takes into account nothing other than hitting (H/PA) and OBP.

H / OBP

1. Hart 4

2. Fielder 6 (.363)

3. Kendall 6 (.344)

4. Braun 6 (.321)

5. Hardy 10

6. Weeks 12

7. Cameron 13

8. Hall 15

This line up is my favorite: it considers OBP and XBH/H:

Power / OBP:

1. Fielder 5

2. Braun 7

3. Cameron 8

4. Hart 9 (.356)

5. Kendall 9 (.344)

6. Weeks 9 (.330)

7. Hall 11

8. Hardy 14

Finally, here's our best line up for patience (NP/PA) and OBP:

Patience / OBP

1. Fielder 6

2. Weeks 7

3. Hart 9

4. Kendall 9

5. Cameron 9

6. Hall 9

7. Hardy 10

8. Braun 13

What is our best line up?

radio silence — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 05:56:00 GMT

It is quite clear that the Brewers are winning without production from offensive powers Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Others are hitting below their norms as well, to varying degrees: J.J. Hardy, Corey Hart, and Bill Hall.

Gabe Kapler and Jason kendall are absolutely hitting the cover off of the ball.

What happens if the current production levels are maintained for the entire season? Well, the whole scenario does not look good for the offense; using the Baseball Musings Line Up Analysis tool, we can see that the Brewers will average around 4.33 runs per game, maxing out at 4.849 runs per game and bottoming out at 3.721.

So, what should the Brewers do to increase the chances of scoring 4.849 runs per game? Here is the line up suggested by the Line Up Analysis tool. I completely guessed the pitching numbers. I will work a more precise pitcher average tomorrow.

1, Jason Kendall
2. Gabe Kapler
3. Bill Hall
4. Corey Hart
5. Rickie Weeks
6. Pitcher
7. Prince Fielder
8. Ryan Braun
9. J.J. Hardy

I would pay $75 for box seats to see that line up.

Here's our worst line up right now:

1. Ryan Braun
2. Pitcher
3. Prince Fielder
4. Corey Hart
5. J.J. Hardy
6. Rickie Weeks
7. Bill Hall
8. Jason Kendall
9. Gabe Kapler

And our current line up? Well, that's apparently such a bad option that the tool did not even suggest a line up with Rickie Weeks leading off, Jason Kendall hitting ninth, and Braun/Fielder batting 3/4.

My favorite?

1. Hart
2. Kapler
3. Braun
4. Kendall
5. Weeks
6. Pitcher
7. Fielder
8. Hall
9. Hardy

So, how do we get the life back into this offense? And what's our best line up right now?

W-L Snapshot

radio silence — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 05:38:31 GMT

Here are the results of all of my patience surveys thus far. There is a definite trend emerging. Not sure if it means anything or can really be a trend thus far...

Brewers Patience W-L

Wins (3.91)

3.87

3.67

4.29

3.48

4.08

4.00

3.90

3.96

Losses (3.61)

3.96

3.41

3.20

3.86

Batting Efficiency

radio silence — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 04:36:34 GMT

The Brewers had a nice series win in Chicago, and the offense had three distinct outings; they were able to scratch out one win in a close game, win another one more easily by scoring a bunch of runs, and they lost a relatively close game (it required the Cubs to utilize their set up Crew for the second time in four games).

Here are the efficiency numbers. I think it's safe to say that, on the whole, the offense had a moderate showing with some bright spots, but they also have room to improve. It's quite clear that this team can knock pitchers around when they force those pitchers to throw a lot of pitches; but the real test will be how frequently they can scratch out wins in game situations like Monday and, to a lesser extent, Thursday, when the opposing starter is working (relatively) efficiently.

[quote]

Zambrano: 6.7 IP, 89 pitches; 23 PA (13.28 NP/IP, 3.87 NP/PA)

Dempster: 6.0 IP, 91 pitches; 23 PA (15.17 NP/IP, 3.96 NP/PA)

Lilly: 4.7 IP, 77 pitches; 21 PA (16.38 NP/IP, 3.67 NP/PA)

Total: 17.3 IP, 257 pitches, 67 PA; 14.86 NP/IP, 3.84 NP/PA

[/quote]

Zambrano was the only pitcher that was clearly efficient, throwing just over 13 pitches per IP, although the Crew still saw a good number of pitches, all things considered. The Dempster start was fair on both sides; the Crew saw the most pitches per PA in the whole series, but did not convert those pitches into a lot of runs. Dempster was, in turn, moderately efficient, despite throwing so many pitches per PA. Lilly gave up a good number of runs, although the Brewers saw the fewest NP per PA in his start; but, those PA were especially efficient, resulting in several hits and a hit batsman. It is apparent that Lilly had pretty good control, but the Brewers managed to hit him, which drove up his pitch count.

I have a decent feeling about this offense going into the weekend after seeing almost 4 pitches per PA against a starter that made his first start since 2004. Hopefully the Brewers can build upon this positive indication of patience against two younger pitchers that are attempting to make the move from the bullpen/spot starter role (Correia and Sanchez, specifically).