wisblue:
Thank you for some raw numbers to back up my assertion that adding Mike Cameron to the lineup would be just like adding a second Bill Hall. Exactly what an already imbalanced, dysfunctional lineup needed!! Talk all you want about Ned Yost as a manager, but nobody can win with a lineup like this unless you have exceptional pitching and defense. And, we know how the Brewers stack up there.
I added some further criteria to my plate approach analysis here. What I questioned is, how much an extra base hit should be counted as the goal of PA -- that is, a batter's first goal is to get on base, and perhaps rather than getting a hit, the batter's best goal, or best possible outcome, could be getting to second without needing a sacrifice or a stolen base. So, on some level, I'd like to see what adding extra base hits does to the value of our club, so I did....
...here's what I found....
One amendment to this list I would like to also suggest is utilizing the number of extra base hits as an analysis of the plate approach. Part of me wonders if it would be best to consider that a player's plate approach might best be judged by (1) the ability to get on base, (2) the ability to collect extra bases (i.e., get to second without requiring an SB or sacrifice), (3) number of pitches, (4) number of hits, and (5) number of walks.
One could argue that given two players that hit and get on base equally, the player that collects more extra base hits is more valuable because of their ability to get to second.
Here's how the Brewers look in XBH/PA, and here's how that changes our rankings of plate approaches:
Adjusted: XBH
Braun: 10.5% (16/152)
Hall: 8.9% (13/145)
Cameron: 8.5% (4/47)
Kendall: 8.1% (10/124)
Weeks: 7.4% (12/163)
Fielder: 7.4% (11/149)
Hart: 7.1% (10/141)
Hardy: 3.0% (4/132)
Adjusted Rankings
Fielder: 19
Kendall: 20
Hall: 22 (.278)
Cameron: 22 (.277)
Weeks: 23
Hardy: 24
Hart: 25 (.357)
Braun: 25 (.296)
What is interesting about this shift is that Fielder and Kendall remain the most valuable batters based on plate approaches, even considering their ability to hit extra base hits. Cameron and Hall jump up to the middle of the order -- even with their shortcomings to get on base, their slugging ability might make their vacations on the basepaths more meaningful. Oddly enough, Weeks remains at 5, Hardy and Hart fall to the bottom of the order, and even his ability to slug an extra base hit in 10% of his PA does not bring Braun out of the 8th spot (although now he's tied with Hart, who is arguably more valuable because of his OBP all together....)
Cameron becomes a more valuable batter for the middle of the order when we consider his ability to get to second via extra base hit; added to the rest of his plate approach, extra base hits increase his value, just as the value of XBH increases Hall's line up position. Oddly enough, Hart's current power woes drop him in the line up, and Hardy is dropped as well because of his inability to hit for power.
I don't know what entirely to conclude from all of this --- I don't want to be seen as making any grand claims, but I wonder what a modified line up based off of this analysis would loook like. To get rid of the GIDP problems, for instance, I'd bat Kendall first and Fielder second. Then, I'd swap Hart for Hall because of Hart's OBP....here's the line up we'd get:
1. Kendall
2. Fielder
3. Hart
4. Cameron
5. Weeks
6. Hardy
7. Hall
8. Braun
Obviously Braun's value increases once he gets more hits, takes more pitches, and gets on base better. His value is difficult to judge right now because he's not doing much well. But I could eventually see swapping him for Cameron in this line up, or I'd also like to see what he could do leading off, with Fielder second....
....just some thoughts....nothing really conclusive....
BIGGER BATS HIT MORE HOME RUNS!
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