Let's hope our favorite HeBrewer comes out of the slump he has been in since the Crew motored into St. Louis!

Think he has one scratch hit in two games and his swing does not look good--swinging and missing

like Bill Hall did and Hall for all the heroics continues to k too much. Hope the Crew continues to

play winning baseball and that C.C. can silence the Cardinals tonight.

I have a feeling that our favorite Hebrew Hacker will put it all together.

radio silence:

I have a feeling that our favorite Hebrew Hacker will put it all together.

Don't worry! He will peak at the right time!

Brauny is fine.....he may just need a break of a game or two to get some shut eye.  I am sure that the All Star break afforded him little to no time to rest and relax.

I'm wondering what he can do to hit more. Let's throw out the BB -- his BB rate is less than 1% lower than 2007, and it's obvious he's not going to start walking this year. What I'm worried about is his hitting -- the kicker is, if he isn't walking, he needs to hit at a very high rate, which is troubling because his .269 H% is already one of the highest on the team.

Oddly enough, he's not striking out more than 2007, and his XBH% isn't too much higher at all.

Part of me thinks Braun is just figuring things out as pitchers figure him out -- and the hits will come.

But something must give.

radio silence:

I'm wondering what he can do to hit more. Let's throw out the BB -- his BB rate is less than 1% lower than 2007, and it's obvious he's not going to start walking this year. What I'm worried about is his hitting -- the kicker is, if he isn't walking, he needs to hit at a very high rate, which is troubling because his .269 H% is already one of the highest on the team.

Oddly enough, he's not striking out more than 2007, and his XBH% isn't too much higher at all.

Part of me thinks Braun is just figuring things out as pitchers figure him out -- and the hits will come.

But something must give.

It would help if he wasn't always down 0-2. He almost always swings at the 1st pitch. Teams know this and pitchers are not giving him anything to swing at. Take a pitch once in a while. Maybe he will start to see a good pitch to hit then.

badger80:

radio silence:

I'm wondering what he can do to hit more. Let's throw out the BB -- his BB rate is less than 1% lower than 2007, and it's obvious he's not going to start walking this year. What I'm worried about is his hitting -- the kicker is, if he isn't walking, he needs to hit at a very high rate, which is troubling because his .269 H% is already one of the highest on the team.

Oddly enough, he's not striking out more than 2007, and his XBH% isn't too much higher at all.

Part of me thinks Braun is just figuring things out as pitchers figure him out -- and the hits will come.

But something must give.

Like a lot of players who don't walk much, Braun will slump for weeks at a time, and he'll probably have a season or two where he really struggles.  Just because of the type of hitter he is, his numbers are really going to fluctuate from season to season.

I think that's exactly it.  If he's not going to show more plate patience (not necessarily taking walks, but being more selective), then will always go through extended slumps.  It's the curse of a free-swinger.

RobertJ is going to have a freak out of Freeway proportions when he sees this thread.  Just wait.

Part of me goes back and forth about whether or not Braun was simply lucky in 2007 -- his BABIP above .360 was ridiculous, and now his BABIP is only slightly above .300 (which is still quite good).

Braun might actually do better to strike out more if it means that he's taking more pitches, being more selective, taking slightly more pitches, and most importantly, maximizing the pitches he siwngs at.

Just watching him on national TV the other night, the crap he swings at is just awful -- sometimes it's not bad to let a strike go by if there's nothing you can do with it, it's early in the count, and you force the pitcher to make another pitch.

radio silence:

Part of me goes back and forth about whether or not Braun was simply lucky in 2007 -- his BABIP above .360 was ridiculous, and now his BABIP is only slightly above .300 (which is still quite good).

Braun might actually do better to strike out more if it means that he's taking more pitches, being more selective, taking slightly more pitches, and most importantly, maximizing the pitches he siwngs at.

Just watching him on national TV the other night, the crap he swings at is just awful -- sometimes it's not bad to let a strike go by if there's nothing you can do with it, it's early in the count, and you force the pitcher to make another pitch.

Braun wasn't lucky based on whether or not he knows how to swing the bat; luck has to deal with how those balls fell in, and the possibility that defenses can also make scouting adjustments on a guy as much as a pitcher.

If there was any site that tracks how teams' starters are covered defensively, I'd be interested to see how shifts have changed on Braun from 2007 to 2008.

As for what Braun gives us, he is a pretty solid left fielder -- good bat, good glove. His production in 2008 is not exceptional, but there is no shame putting up the type of production he has at LF.

Whether or not Braun puts up elite production eventually is beside the point -- even if he turns out to be more like a Juan Gonzalez or Alfonso Soriano, the Crew control him at a very good price nonetheless.

What I'd like to see is Braun move to CF to maximize our OF production.

radio silence:

Braun wasn't lucky based on whether or not he knows how to swing the bat; luck has to deal with how those balls fell in, and the possibility that defenses can also make scouting adjustments on a guy as much as a pitcher.

If there was any site that tracks how teams' starters are covered defensively, I'd be interested to see how shifts have changed on Braun from 2007 to 2008.

Okay, this is not scientific, but it's an attempt to start to analyze what's qualitatively different about Braun's contact in 2008, and why his luck might be different:

First, the stats, using his BR "hits by location" and "hit trajectory" from his 2007 and 2008 splits, we can see the raw results (I looked at his hits only):

 

Braun (2008): 115 H, 26 2B, 5 3B, 24 HR; 47.8% XBH; 20.9% HR

            Infield: 16 H (13.9%)

            Outfield: 99 H (86.1%)

            In-play: 91 H (79.1%)

            Not-in-play: 24 H (20.9%)

            Pulled: 39 H (33.9%)

            Up the Middle: 60 H (52.2%)

            Opposite field: 16 H (13.9%)

 

            Ground balls: 37 H (32.1%)

            Fly Balls: 43 H (37.4%)

            Line drives: 34 H (29.6%)

            Bunts: 1 H (0.9%)

 

Braun (2007): 146 H, 26 2B, 6 3B, 34 HR; 45.2% XBH; 23.3% HR

            Infield: 11 H (7.5%)

            Outfield: 135 H (92.5%)

            In-play: 112 H (76.7%)

            Not-in-play: 34 H (23.3%)

            Pulled: 56 H (38.4%)

            Up the middle: 59 H (40.4%)

            Opposite field: 31 H (21.2%)

 

            Ground balls: 47 H (32.2%)

            Fly balls: 49 H (33.6%)

            Line drives: 49 H (33.6%)

            Bunts: 1 H (0.7%)

Okay, here's what jumps out at me in an unscientific way:

(1) More extra-base hits, but fewer HR %. Two things could be happening here: first off, if Braun is hitting home runs less frequently, the corrolary is that he's putting the ball in play more. Coupled with his walk % drop by roughly 1%, and his strike out drop by roughly 3%, we can see a couple of aspects of Braun's game that suggests that he's putting the ball in play more, which is not necessarily a good thing. Even if not putting the ball in play means more strike outs, an approach that emphasizes not putting the ball in play could also result in more selectivity (more walks) and perhaps more home runs (maybe).

Secondly, if Braun's powerful swing is resulting in more extra base hits, but fewer HR, it could mean that while he's putting balls into the air in the outfield, there might also be more outs occurring out there....

....(2) More fly balls. If Braun is hitting more hits via the fly ball, but fewer HR, it could also mean that he is recording more outs via the fly ball.

(3) Fewer line drives: I believe that if Braun is hitting fewer line drives, it could mean several things. Mainly, he's either not making good contact regularly (meaning he might be more likely to hit a fly ball and get under a ball) or his line drives are finding gloves more than the outfield grasss or a hole in the infield.

(4) Less opposite field, more up the middle. While we should generally be happy that Braun is getting fewer hits by pulling the ball (which could also mean fewer HR?), the result is not more opposite field hits, but rather more hits up the middle. Given the alignment of defenses, it could actually be the case that putting more balls up the middle results in more outs as well as more hits, if the general frequency of balls hit up the middle increases.

Those are a few things that need to be investigated more in-depth and more scientifically (i.e., total balls put in play, rather than hits alone), but there are some interesting changes in his hitting results that could account for his lower BABIP and his lower production over all.