A Long Time Coming
At 77-55, the Brewers are a season-high 22 games over .500.....the team has not been 23 games over the .500 mark since 10/3/92 when they were 92-69.

Red Alert
The Brewers have won 7 straight games against the Cardinals dating back to 5/11....here is a look at the stats from those seven games:

                             Brewers            Cardinals
Runs/Game . . . . . 7.0 (42/7). . . . . . 2.1 (15/7)
Starter ERA . . .1.72 (9/47.0) . .. 4.93 (23/42.0)
Team BA . . . . .290 (75/259). . . ..208 (47/226)
Home Runs. . . . . . . . . . .13 . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

For Starters
Brewers starters are 14-5 with a 2.72 ERA over the last 23 games (159ip, 48er) and have had 18 quality starts during this stretch.....Brewers starters have posted a 3.86 ERA for the season, which is third in the Majors.

Fine ‘Penmanship
Brewers relievers have a 1.94 ERA over their last 17 games (46.1ip, 10er) to lower their overall ERA from 4.16 to 3.81.

The Braun Supremacy
Since making his big-league debut on 5/25/07, Ryan Braun ranks among the Major League leaders in the following:
Category MLB Rank
Total Bases (580) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1st
Extra-Base Hits (139) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1st
Home Runs (67) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2nd
Slugging Percentage (.614) . . . . . . . . . .2nd
RBI (189) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3rd
Hits (295) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9th
Braun has played 234 career games

Catching Up
Jason Kendall has thrown out 29 of 74 runners attempting to steal this season (39.2%, 2nd MLB) after throwing out just
13 of 124 runners last season (10.5%).....his 29 CCS leads the Majors.

Cards vs. Parra
Rick Ankiel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..429 (3-7, 2k)
Brian Barton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..000 (0-4, 2bb, 2k)
Chris Duncan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..000 (0-1)
Juan Encarnacion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..667 (2-3)
Troy Glaus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..400 (2-5, 1bb, 1k)
Cesar Izturis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..200 (1-5, 1bb)
Jason LaRue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..000 (0-3)
Felipe Lopez . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..000 (0-3, 1k)
Ryan Ludwick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..300 (3-10, 1hr, 1bb, 3k)
Aaron Miles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..375 (3-8, 3bb)
Yadier Molina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..286 (2-7, 2bb)
Albert Pujols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..500 (4-8, 1hr, 3bb)
Skip Schumaker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..143 (1-7, 4k)

Brewers vs. Wainwright
Braun. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333 (5-15, 2hr, 1bb, 3k)
Cameron. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333 (1-3)
Counsell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .500 (1-2)
Durham. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .250 (1-4, 1k)
Fielder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .286 (4-14, 4bb, 4k)
Hall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .188 (3-16, 1hr, 1bb, 2k)
Hardy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .188 (3-16, 1bb, 3k)
Hart. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133 (2-15, 3k)
Kapler. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .000 (0-1)
Kendall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333 (4-12, 1k)
Weeks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .273 (3-11, 3bb, 1k)

A reason to like the Cardinals



Hopefully the Gridiron Girl's charm will work for Manny tonight. Seems to have worked for Riske.

And some notes from today's Daily Drink

From the St. Louis point of view - Cards season leaning toward disappointment. The Brewers own the Cardinals. Cards go down. Sheets turns the table.

Ryan Braun has the right idea. Don't be content with a split. Go for the kill tonight. Take the birds out.

Bugs and Cranks has a look at the new Ryan Braun uniform. BrewTownBeat calls Milwaukee superior to St. Louis in Beer and Baseball. SI writer with why CC should win the Cy Young. Right Field Bleachers interviews "the Doorman." A tentative playoff schedule. The Bucky Channel is not thrilled about instant replay.

And now today's
The team is 22 games over the .500 mark for the first time since finishing the 1992 season at 92-70. The Brewers have already matched their best win total in a month with last nights win:
March . . . . .1-0
April . . . . . .14-12
May . . . . .. .13-16
June. . . . . . 16-10
July . . . . . . 16-11
August . . . . 16-6

Shameless self-promotion day. Here's a thread and blog post I put together on Parra. I think Yost is running him into the ground:

It's no secret to anyone that I've been on the Parra IP count / workload concern bandwagon since the beginning of the season, if not earlier. In fact, I'm pretyt sure I've been driving the thing. Well, the fact is, Parra has put together a pretty good season despite his bad start, and in terms of his overall season he is probably our second most valuable pitcher behind Sheets, and third most valuable pitcher since Sabathia was added to the rotation.

But, in his last 5 starts, the old Manny Parra, from earlier in the season, has appeared. And now we have to concern ourselves with workload once again. You see, the genius of Yost is that not only did the organization not put in place any publicized plan to limit Parra's IP; they've sent him out on the mound, continually, to inefficient outing after inefficient outing. Parra's pitch count and WHIP throughout the season are witness to the relative stress of his IP, and the fact that he's repeating his delivery a lot, a lot with men on base, and throwing a lot of pitches in particular innings when he loses control support a case that Parra has carried a stressful workload this season. Now, there are arguments that can take the blame off of Parra somewhat (he has the worst defensive efficiency of any of the team's starters), but that doesn't change the fact that his workload is both heavy and inefficient.

So now we have these trends -- Parra's season forms three neat segments thus far, divided by the few times he has pitched two consecutive quality starts. Using his first and last consecutive quality start stretches, we can divide Parra's season in the following manner:

 

April 5-May 25: 10 GS, 49.3 IP, 31 R; 932 NP (0 efficient outings)
May 30-July 25: 11 G, 10 GS, 64.3 IP, 20 R; 995 NP(4 efficient outings)
July 30-August 20: 5 GS, 29 IP, 18 R; 480 NP (1 efficient outings)

April 5-May 25: 1.72 WHIP; 18.9 NP/IP; 5.66 runs average, 4.93 IP/GS
May 20-July 25: 1.29 WHIP; 15.47 NP/IP; 2.80 runs average, 5.85 IP/G
July 30-August 20: 1.62 WHIP; 16.55 NP/IP; 5.59 runs average, 5.80 IP/GS

 

I find this progression to be worrisome for several reasons: (1) Is this simply a case of wild Manny Parra that we saw early in the season?; (2) Is Parra's incredibly inefficient workload wearing on his arm, especially repeating the delivery throughout long IP with many baserunners?; (3) Will this trend continue for approximately 10 starts, until the end of the season?

 This bothers me the most, and I don't have an answer: is keeping Parra in the rotation any longer detrimental to both his future health, his current health, and most importantly, the Brewers' playoff chances?

Just a note: Parra is approximately 6 IP beyond his workload from 2007, which isn't bad at the moment; but if the organization simply lets him go until the end of the season, if he continues to pitch into the 6th inning, he could easily add another 40-48 IP+ onto that workload. Now add in the fact that he has been terribly inefficient all season, and think about what adding more inefficient IP onto Parra's arm entails for both Parra's future, the Brewers' 2009 rotation, and the Brewers' pennant race.

radio silence:

Just a note: Parra is approximately 6 IP beyond his workload from 2007, which isn't bad at the moment; but if the organization simply lets him go until the end of the season, if he continues to pitch into the 6th inning, he could easily add another 40-48 IP+ onto that workload. Now add in the fact that he has been terribly inefficient all season, and think about what adding more inefficient IP onto Parra's arm entails for both Parra's future, the Brewers' 2009 rotation, and the Brewers' pennant race.

To me, this is a similar scenario as the one with Weeks.  The team has a problem with a player being inefficient.  The team also has few options and they're not really wise.

Very fair point, UWW.

I believe the time to do something about Parra was April and May, and obviously it's much more difficult to shut a player down late in the season and then expect him to get right back to his previous level when the playoffs or crucial September games come.

This isn't meant to be a game of "I told you so" on my part either, to criticize Melvin and Yost, but it's quite clear from the start that they had no plan with Parra, and it was always an awfully big gamble with an arm that is under control for at least another 5 years, recovering from serious surgery a couple years back, and not prepared for a full workload.

The real trouble is, if the gamble was that Parra would only show ill effects from a large workload in 2009, any workload-related trouble during the pennant race gives the Brewers a return they might not be prepared to handle.

I share your concerns Radio. Couple of questions, the two days off this week will give Manny a couple of extra days to rest. Will that help? Is not the team more concerned with pitch count than innings, especially pitches per inning? If so, has Manny had any innings where his pitch count was high? I would not like to see Manny's arm compromised because of the pennant chase. I would rather see the team skip him a turn and give him some extra rest than risk an injury.

You've got the questions exactly right, edd... 

eddg:

Couple of questions, the two days off this week will give Manny a couple of extra days to rest. Will that help?

I certainly think it cannot hurt.

Is not the team more concerned with pitch count than innings, especially pitches per inning?

I believe this is absolutely the case, and this is where Manny's case is difficult: his inefficient stretches this season were so inefficient that his pitches got too high early in ballgames to ever reach that "red alert" of 120 pitches. 

Parra's overall pitch counts don't tell the full story... 

If so, has Manny had any innings where his pitch count was high?

....because during his inefficient stretches, he averages just about 20 pitches per inning. The way that breaks down, with his WHIP, means that Parra is throwing a bad type of IP -- high pitch workloads in that IP and  high workload from the stretch. It's the types of changes between different mechanical approaches (such as stretch vs. wind up), coupled with a high workload throughout those approaches, as well as the ineffectiveness or control issues that cause a high amount of baserunners that really worry me.

I would not like to see Manny's arm compromised because of the pennant chase. I would rather see the team skip him a turn and give him some extra rest than risk an injury.

Right on, edd.

What I never get about these young arms is that in a lot of cases, it simply takes two weeks in the bullpen early on, and maybe a couple of prep starts at AAA to effectively limit a workload, especially when a pitcher is terribly inefficient, as Manny is -- I mean, the kid only has 5 efficient starts all season, so not only is his IP workload being pushed, but it's being pushed with a lot of inefficient innings.

If the Brewers can continue to play very good ball and have the Wild Card wrapped up in the final week, I think we could see Manny in the bullpen a bit and giving someone else a spot start (DiFelice?).  That would help lower his innings total too. 

Great point, Jim.

I think that would be a good thing, as Manny would need to adjust to the pen -- I cannot see any way it could be reasonably suggested that he ought to start in the playoffs after his workload during the season.

I also share the same concerns RE Parra.

My question is: How can the team help rectify the situation? Do you skip a few starts? Do you spot start him, like Jim Breen suggested?

You'd have to think management is somewhat aware of this potential problem, right? If so, you'd have to think a plan is in the works.

Jim Breen:

If the Brewers can continue to play very good ball and have the Wild Card wrapped up in the final week, I think we could see Manny in the bullpen a bit and giving someone else a spot start (DiFelice?).  That would help lower his innings total too. 

About the handeling of Parra this year: Who else would you put in?  McClung?  It is obvious McClung could not sustain more than 5 innings after his 3-5 quality starts (and I don't think they were all quality). 

A manager or anyone in charge has to balance risk/reward.  The opportunity cost would is too great to give up.

A joyous, yet sad day for Cubs fans.  They completed the sweep in Pittsburgh, increasing their road record to 34-31 and division lead to 5.5 games... but it is the last of the Pirates for the season... a team they beat like a drum to the tune of 14-4.  Last time the flag will fly for a win over the Pirates...  Nice shutout boys.

Jhumbe:

A joyous, yet sad day for Cubs fans.  They completed the sweep in Pittsburgh, increasing their road record to 34-31 and division lead to 5.5 games... but it is the last of the Pirates for the season... a team they beat like a drum to the tune of 14-4.  Last time the flag will fly for a win over the Pirates...  Nice shutout boys.

Then again, I'm sure you have plenty of experience with premature....um....celebration, so I'm sure you knew how to cope. 

radio silence:

Shameless self-promotion day. Here's a thread and blog post I put together on Parra. I think Yost is running him into the ground:

It's no secret to anyone that I've been on the Parra IP count / workload concern bandwagon since the beginning of the season, if not earlier. In fact, I'm pretyt sure I've been driving the thing. Well, the fact is, Parra has put together a pretty good season despite his bad start, and in terms of his overall season he is probably our second most valuable pitcher behind Sheets, and third most valuable pitcher since Sabathia was added to the rotation.

But, in his last 5 starts, the old Manny Parra, from earlier in the season, has appeared. And now we have to concern ourselves with workload once again. You see, the genius of Yost is that not only did the organization not put in place any publicized plan to limit Parra's IP; they've sent him out on the mound, continually, to inefficient outing after inefficient outing. Parra's pitch count and WHIP throughout the season are witness to the relative stress of his IP, and the fact that he's repeating his delivery a lot, a lot with men on base, and throwing a lot of pitches in particular innings when he loses control support a case that Parra has carried a stressful workload this season. Now, there are arguments that can take the blame off of Parra somewhat (he has the worst defensive efficiency of any of the team's starters), but that doesn't change the fact that his workload is both heavy and inefficient.

So now we have these trends -- Parra's season forms three neat segments thus far, divided by the few times he has pitched two consecutive quality starts. Using his first and last consecutive quality start stretches, we can divide Parra's season in the following manner:

 

April 5-May 25: 10 GS, 49.3 IP, 31 R; 932 NP (0 efficient outings)
May 30-July 25: 11 G, 10 GS, 64.3 IP, 20 R; 995 NP(4 efficient outings)
July 30-August 20: 5 GS, 29 IP, 18 R; 480 NP (1 efficient outings)

April 5-May 25: 1.72 WHIP; 18.9 NP/IP; 5.66 runs average, 4.93 IP/GS
May 20-July 25: 1.29 WHIP; 15.47 NP/IP; 2.80 runs average, 5.85 IP/G
July 30-August 20: 1.62 WHIP; 16.55 NP/IP; 5.59 runs average, 5.80 IP/GS

 

I find this progression to be worrisome for several reasons: (1) Is this simply a case of wild Manny Parra that we saw early in the season?; (2) Is Parra's incredibly inefficient workload wearing on his arm, especially repeating the delivery throughout long IP with many baserunners?; (3) Will this trend continue for approximately 10 starts, until the end of the season?

 This bothers me the most, and I don't have an answer: is keeping Parra in the rotation any longer detrimental to both his future health, his current health, and most importantly, the Brewers' playoff chances?

Just a note: Parra is approximately 6 IP beyond his workload from 2007, which isn't bad at the moment; but if the organization simply lets him go until the end of the season, if he continues to pitch into the 6th inning, he could easily add another 40-48 IP+ onto that workload. Now add in the fact that he has been terribly inefficient all season, and think about what adding more inefficient IP onto Parra's arm entails for both Parra's future, the Brewers' 2009 rotation, and the Brewers' pennant race.

Oh,oh. Suggesting that Parra has been "inefficient" may incur the wrath of RobertJ44, who thinks there is nothing wrong with Parra's numbers.

There's nothing wrong with Parra's numbers throughout the full season.

He is the most valuable pitcher on our staff behind Sheets for the entire season, and Sheets and Sabathia since the trade.

 But there is a distinct progression of his numbers, and there is a reality about how his inefficiency affects his workload and results during certain stretches.

Parra just needs to give us 5-6 good innings!