In Brewer history only 4 players have accomplished scoring 105+ runs and driving in 100+

• Rickie's current pace is 122 Runs 106 RBI
• Ryan's current pace is 112 Runs 149 RBI

The only other Brewer's to achieve those figures in a single season....

• Yount in 1982
• Fielder in 2007
• Jaha in 1996
• Cooper in 1983

Its only 20% into the season, but its always fun to track "pace" type counting stats.  It would appear Braun is a lock, while Rickie will struggle to get to 100 RBI with the likes of Kendall and the Pitchers spot hitting in the 2 slots in front of him.

Which leads me to one final comment.....

I can't stand when people say, "the leadoff hitter only leads off once per game so who cares about OBP?"  Ugh.....thats not the point.  Its not who "leads off" that matters, it is how many people will be on base when certain batters come up.  You want high OBP guys hitting in front of Braun and Fielder, because they are your best hitters.  That is why it makes more sense to hit Braun 3rd rather than 1st.  Hitting 1st would give RB a few more AB's per year.  Sounds good.  But, his AB's with runners on base would go down dramatically with Kendall and Pitcher hitting directly in front of him.

John Jaha! You forget how good of a hitter he actually was. Injuries really derailed his career. 1996 was one hell of a year for him!

scoop82:

Its only 20% into the season, but its always fun to track "pace" type counting stats.

It's a waste of time until you're past the halfway point.

Tuffy Rhodes once had 3 home runs on Opening Day. He was "on pace" for 486. I bet you almost lost your mind over that one. 

scoop82:

 It would appear Braun is a lock,

How can he be a "lock" 20% into the season? You know the back thing could flare up at any time, right?

Yes...I think its fun to project Tuffy Rhodes and/or George Bell for 480 hr's after opening day.  If you don't, then don't

And, obviously I am saying that Braun is a "lock", if he stays healthy.  In your world, there would be no such thing as a "lock".  In fact, the word "lock" wouldn't even exist because of the "what if/ chaotic" nature of the world.  There could be no "lock".  Will the Sun come up tomorrow?  I think its pretty much a lock.  In yours the Sun may explode, or the Earthy might spin off its orbit and we would all either freeze to death or bake to death.  I mean, the sun might have exploded 4 minutes ago, but we won't find out for another 3 or so.....

If you would like to place a wager on Braun hitting 105 and 100, I will be happy to take your cash.

"It's a waste of time until you're past the halfway point."  So you are ok with projecting after 81 games, but not after 32?  Just want to make sure I understand, so that in the future I don't offend your clearly scientific sensabilities.  Especially on such hallowed ground as a sports forum for Brewer discussion.

scoop82:

Yes...I think its fun to project Tuffy Rhodes and/or George Bell for 480 hr's after opening day.  If you don't, then don't

And, obviously I am saying that Braun is a "lock", if he stays healthy.  In your world, there would be no such thing as a "lock".  In fact, the word "lock" wouldn't even exist because of the "what if/ chaotic" nature of the world.  There could be no "lock".  Will the Sun come up tomorrow?  I think its pretty much a lock.  In yours the Sun may explode, or the Earthy might spin off its orbit and we would all either freeze to death or bake to death.  I mean, the sun might have exploded 4 minutes ago, but we won't find out for another 3 or so.....

If you would like to place a wager on Braun hitting 105 and 100, I will be happy to take your cash.

 

"It's a waste of time until you're past the halfway point."  So you are ok with projecting after 81 games, but not after 32?  Just want to make sure I understand, so that in the future I don't offend your clearly scientific sensabilities.  Especially on such hallowed ground as a sports forum for Brewer discussion.

The point is, that Braun isn't healthy and probably won't be all season.

It's statistically insignificant to say someone is a "lock" after 1/5 of the season has been completed.

Do you think the Dodgers and Royals are "locks" to win their divisions?

Carlos Pena is a "lock" to win the AL home run crown?

Zach Greinke is a "lock" to win the AL ERA crown and win 30 games?

Joey Votto is a "lock" to win the NL batting crown and make a run at .400?

Carl Crawford is a "lock" to steal 100 bases?

scoop82:

Yes...I think its fun to project Tuffy Rhodes and/or George Bell for 480 hr's after opening day.  If you don't, then don't

And, obviously I am saying that Braun is a "lock", if he stays healthy.  In your world, there would be no such thing as a "lock".  In fact, the word "lock" wouldn't even exist because of the "what if/ chaotic" nature of the world.  There could be no "lock".  Will the Sun come up tomorrow?  I think its pretty much a lock.  In yours the Sun may explode, or the Earthy might spin off its orbit and we would all either freeze to death or bake to death.  I mean, the sun might have exploded 4 minutes ago, but we won't find out for another 3 or so.....

I agree with you that it's fun to screw around with projections.

A "lock" does mean something specific though, a Braun is certainly not a lock, even without injury.

Pack Attack:

John Jaha! You forget how good of a hitter he actually was. Injuries really derailed his career. 1996 was one hell of a year for him!

 

sounds like richie sexton.

quicksdraw:

Pack Attack:

John Jaha! You forget how good of a hitter he actually was. Injuries really derailed his career. 1996 was one hell of a year for him!

 

sounds like richie sexton.

Jaha couldn't hold SexSon's jock.

scoop82:

I can't stand when people say, "the leadoff hitter only leads off once per game so who cares about OBP?"  Ugh.....thats not the point.  Its not who "leads off" that matters, it is how many people will be on base when certain batters come up.  You want high OBP guys hitting in front of Braun and Fielder, because they are your best hitters.  That is why it makes more sense to hit Braun 3rd rather than 1st.  Hitting 1st would give RB a few more AB's per year.  Sounds good.  But, his AB's with runners on base would go down dramatically with Kendall and Pitcher hitting directly in front of him.

Leadoff                33%
2nd                        43%
3rd                        48%
Cleanup                50%
5th                        48%
6th                        46%
7th                        46%
8th                        46%
9th                        45%

Really, aside from the leadoff spot, it doesn't matter a whole lot where you bat in the line-up as far as RBI opportunities are concerned.

You are making my point.  It has been bantered about, here and other places that it doesn't matter who leads off......because, they say, the leadoff hitter only leads off for sure 1 inning per game.  My point is validated by your chart....the spots in the order that see the most RBI opportunities are 3, 4 and 5.  That is not accidental, and its not because the leadoff guy hits first ONLY once per game.  It is because typically the leadoff hitter gets himself on base and in scoring position more often then other hitters in the lineup.

Brewguru....insignificance is subjective.  And here are my answers....

1. Do you think the Dodgers and Royals are "locks" to win their divisions? NO, cant control other division foes except head to head
2. 
   Carlos Pena is a "lock" to win the AL home run crown? NO, can't control what the other 300 hitters in the league will do.  Braun controls his destiny and has no competion.  My "lock" has him competing against only himself to achieve statistical benchmarks.
3. Zach Greinke is a "lock" to win the AL ERA crown and win 30 games? NO, again very different from Braun who controls whether he performs or doesn't.  Grienke could have a .5 era the rest of the year and finish 6-25.
4. Joey Votto is a "lock" to win the NL batting crown and make a run at .400? NO.  Winning the batting crown is a much different "lock" projection than projecting Braun is going 105 and 100.  Even if Votto hits 400.  Someone else might hit 401.  There are no such variables in Brauns case.
5. Carl Crawford is a "lock" to steal 100 bases? NO.  Not a lock, but at least he controls his destiny.
6. Is Braun more of a "lock" to reach 105 runs and 100 rbi than the above 5 propositions? YES

badger80:

I don't have any idea what you're talking about.  Who suggested that Braun lead off?  

Hasn't Radio suggested ad nauseum that Braun lead off?

brewguru:

badger80:

I don't have any idea what you're talking about.  Who suggested that Braun lead off?  

 

Hasn't Radio suggested ad nauseum that Braun lead off?

scoop82:

You are making my point.  It has been bantered about, here and other places that it doesn't matter who leads off......because, they say, the leadoff hitter only leads off for sure 1 inning per game.  My point is validated by your chart....the spots in the order that see the most RBI opportunities are 3, 4 and 5.  That is not accidental, and its not because the leadoff guy hits first ONLY once per game.  It is because typically the leadoff hitter gets himself on base and in scoring position more often then other hitters in the lineup.

 

Brewguru....insignificance is subjective.  And here are my answers....

1. Do you think the Dodgers and Royals are "locks" to win their divisions? NO, cant control other division foes except head to head
2. 
   Carlos Pena is a "lock" to win the AL home run crown? NO, can't control what the other 300 hitters in the league will do.  Braun controls his destiny and has no competion.  My "lock" has him competing against only himself to achieve statistical benchmarks.
3. Zach Greinke is a "lock" to win the AL ERA crown and win 30 games? NO, again very different from Braun who controls whether he performs or doesn't.  Grienke could have a .5 era the rest of the year and finish 6-25.
4. Joey Votto is a "lock" to win the NL batting crown and make a run at .400? NO.  Winning the batting crown is a much different "lock" projection than projecting Braun is going 105 and 100.  Even if Votto hits 400.  Someone else might hit 401.  There are no such variables in Brauns case.
5. Carl Crawford is a "lock" to steal 100 bases? NO.  Not a lock, but at least he controls his destiny.
6. Is Braun more of a "lock" to reach 105 runs and 100 rbi than the above 5 propositions? YES

 

But how does Braun control how much the hitters get on base in front of him? 

You said Greinke could have a 5 ERA the rest of the year, well Braun could hit .110 with runners in scoring position.

scoop82:

Is Braun more of a "lock" to reach 105 runs and 100 rbi than the above 5 propositions? YES

It's more of a lock that I win powerball than have sex with Jessica Biel, but neither is a lock.

ike1024:

scoop82:

Is Braun more of a "lock" to reach 105 runs and 100 rbi than the above 5 propositions? YES

It's more of a lock that I win powerball than have sex with Jessica Biel, but neither is a lock.

How about while winning the powerball!