Most of our debates around here dance around one point, but rarely seem to tackle it directly: run scoring does not depend upon putting the ball in play, so much as it is framed by how the ball is put in play. Subsequently, an approach at the plate is framed or outlined by balls not put in play -- home runs, walks, hit by pitch, and strike outs -- which in turn help to shape the value of a batter's balls in play. In a search for the evasive plate discipline, or patience, we can in turn study the ratios between K, BB, and HR.

For instance, it is not simply a bad thing to K. It is a bad thing to K and not hit HR in a complementary ratio; it is a bad thing to K and not BB; but all three outcomes must be taken in order. Similarly, it is not always a good thing to be a contact hitter and put the ball in play frequently; if that is shaped by excessive K, no BB, and no HR, contact approaches become less valuable.

In understanding the circumstances by which a player puts the ball in play, we are understanding their luck. Luck is not here meant to be something insulting to a hitter, as most people who believe in moral desert in baseball believe luck to be. Luck is pervasive; every aspect of a hitter's approach encounters luck in one way or another, simply by the manner of circumstances in which the hitter finds himself.

This basic balance between the percentage of balls in play ((PA-HR-BB-K-HBP)/PA) and BABIP will reveal more foundational aspects of a hitter's approach than his AVG/OBP/SLG splits, and looking at batting luck over a period of years will be more instructive about hitting trends than the AVG/OBP/SLG taken together. The point is not to explain that a hitter hit a certain way, but to attempt to comprehend why. 

This is a simple survey of Brewers' 2009 batting luck, and those players' 2007-2009 progressions. I have also included HR/PA, BB/PA, and K/PA to help frame the type of balls not put in play by a batter. As I said, it is not simply a good or bad thing to strike out, and not simply a good or bad thing to be a contact hitter; there are degrees of patience, discipline, power, etc., that also frame those aspects of hitting, which keep us from making sweeping general claims. 

 

NL Averages	`	BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.706	0.301		0.085	0.173	0.027
2008		0.697	0.298		0.088	0.181	0.027
2009		0.0693	0.299		0.09	0.184	0.025

 

 

Jason kendall		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.834	0.259		0.06	0.082	0.006
2008		0.813	0.265		0.085	0.077	0.003
2009		0.766	0.27		0.087	0.11	0.004

 

Ick. Exhibit A against contact hitting. Kendall is exactly the type of contact hitter that baseball doesn't need. Increasing K in 2009, negligable home run total, and rather steady batting average on balls in play.

Ick.

 

Prince Fielder		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.596	0.283		0.132	0.178	0.073
2008		0.62	0.298		0.121	0.193	0.049
2009		0.597	0.315		0.153	0.192	0.064

 

This is a thing of beauty. Prince hit more home runs than 2008, while striking out more frequently than his last huge HR total season (2007), and of course, those walks picked up big time.

Prince's BABIP might be likely to drop a little bit in 2010, but the main trend that we should keep in our minds here is Prince's phenomenal K/BB ratio. 

 

Rickie Weeks		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.557	0.287		0.154	0.229	0.032
2008		0.627	0.277		0.118	0.205	0.025
2009		0.611	0.313		0.074	0.241	0.056

 

Joe Average Fan cheered mightily at the sight of Weeks' apparent hitting breakout this year, but I am more skeptical of Weeks' 2009 than his steady 2007-2008 trends. 

What do we make of Weeks' complete lack of discipline in 2009? Sure, he hit more home runs, and sure enough, his BABIP came around in a big way. But look at his actual trends: his strike outs increased by 4%, walks dropped 4%, and while this is made worthwhile by a 3% increase in HR frequency, what happens should Weeks maintain his ridiculous K/BB (worse than 3/1) rate and the home runs don't come again in 2010?

I am not confident about what we'll see from Weeks in 2010.

 

Casey McGehee		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		DNP	DNP		DNP	DNP	DNP
2008		0.68	0.235		0	0.32	0
2009		0.7	0.33		0.086	0.17	0.041

 

The good news is that McGehee burst onto the MLB scene in 2010. The bad news is that his BB% increased over his minor league norms, and so did his BABIP and HR%.

Not good for 2010. Trade now.

 

J.J. Hardy		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.781	0.279		0.063	0.114	0.041
2008		0.722	0.305		0.083	0.156	0.038
2009		0.697	0.26		0.092	0.183	0.024
Alcides Escobar		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		DNP	DNP		DNP	DNP	DNP
2008		0.75	0.667		0	0.25	0
2009		0.813	0.304		0.03	0.134	0.007

 

Escobar made major strides in the minors during 2009, improving his discipline and power numbers. He didn't take that to the majors, which means he has his work cut out for him in 2010. He won't go anywhere as a player with a K/BB that is worse than 4/1, and a BB% lower than 5%.

Hardy's luck was due to drop, and it fell in a bad way, which looked even worse given that his steady 2007-2008 HR rate dropped, and he struck out a lot more.

I don't know what to say other than not only did Hardy look completely lost in person, but also on paper. Is it just Murphy's Law, and moreover, is trading Hardy such a good idea with Escobar leaving a few question marks as well?

Mark me down as generally perplexed about our SS situation.

 

Ryan Braun		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.63	0.361		0.056	0.228	0.069
2008		0.677	0.305		0.063	0.195	0.056
2009		0.685	0.353		0.081	0.171	0.045

 

Ryan Braun is nothing more than a pure hitter, and I would not be surprised to see his contact continue to rise, putting more balls in play, hopefully accompanied by maintaining his 2009 BB% improvements, progressively lower K%, and progressively lower HR%.

Braun seems to show more of a desire simply to hit, and he said so at the end of the year. I see him morphing into a Moises Alou style hitter, very high average, pretty decent HR, and swinging away, for the most part.

 

Mike Cameron		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.607	0.298		0.103	0.246	0.032
2008		0.553	0.296		0.106	0.28	0.049
2009		0.588	0.304		0.119	0.248	0.038

 

Cameron is pretty damn consistent, isn't he?

 

Corey Hart		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.696	0.321		0.064	0.175	0.042
2008		0.755	0.293		0.041	0.166	0.03
2009		0.676	0.305		0.091	0.195	0.025

 

Everything went right for Hart in 2007, and that's excellent, but now he's morphing into a useful hitter after dropping off in 2008. His marked BB% increase in 2009 is really promising, and if he can work the strike outs down a little bit more (if he's not going to be hitting home runs as frequently as 2007), I think we can see Hart morph into a very useful hitter for the 2010 Brewers.

There is an outside chance, if you look at it a certain way, that Hart's sudden discipline improvements, should they stick, will eventually yield more power through better selectivity at the plate, and better patience. Should Hart's power return a little bit to better than average levels, and he continues to walk, he could become more than a useful bat.

Warboss74:

This is a nice read Radio. I do think it's dificult to gauge Rickie's luck on 37 games, though.

Two things jump out at me, small sample or not. (1) Declining walk rate, from 2007-2008, magnified in his 2009 campaign. (2) Large BABIP jump. 

I am suspicious that Weeks could became a completely different style of hitter in that short of time, and skeptical that a continuation of a below average walk rate will nevertheless bring Weeks good hitting results.

I am also skeptical of the home run jump.

 Thanks, Jim. As always, I appreciate your promotion and linking of my stuff. You and ATK do really good work at Bernie's Crew...can I just say that given the new "Twitter" aspect of the internet, where simply linking someone counts as discussing their work, your guys' insistence of summarizing and briefly analyzing blog posts and news articles is really welcome and appreciated....

 Update:

 

Carlos Gomez		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.712	0.273		0.057	0.194	0.014
2008		0.705	0.33		0.041	0.231	0.011
2009		0.711	0.286		0.063	0.206	0.009

Gomez is an odd type of bat. He doesn't do anything. He puts the ball in play at an average to slightly above average rate, but that's only because he doesn't walk or hit home runs. He strikes out a lot without compensating in another aspect of his approach.

In order to be a successful hitter, Gomez will need to develop a backbone on the plate, on which he can rely when his BABIP isn't there, in order to keep the outcomes of his approach consistent. Lack of patience, lack of power, lack of impact contact, really, lack of an identity at the plate.

I would like to see Gomez develop an identity. Do something. If you're going to strike out, hit home runs and extra base htis, or walk a lot. If you're not going to hit for power, stop striking out and put the ball in play all the time. Do something that indicates that there is a cohesive approach at the plate that can therefore yield productive outcomes.

radio silence:

 Update:

 

Carlos Gomez		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.712	0.273		0.057	0.194	0.014
2008		0.705	0.33		0.041	0.231	0.011
2009		0.711	0.286		0.063	0.206	0.009

Gomez is an odd type of bat. He doesn't do anything. He puts the ball in play at an average to slightly above average rate, but that's only because he doesn't walk or hit home runs. He strikes out a lot without compensating in another aspect of his approach.

In order to be a successful hitter, Gomez will need to develop a backbone on the plate, on which he can rely when his BABIP isn't there, in order to keep the outcomes of his approach consistent. Lack of patience, lack of power, lack of impact contact, really, lack of an identity at the plate.

I would like to see Gomez develop an identity. Do something. If you're going to strike out, hit home runs and extra base htis, or walk a lot. If you're not going to hit for power, stop striking out and put the ball in play all the time. Do something that indicates that there is a cohesive approach at the plate that can therefore yield productive outcomes.

He clearly needs to improve his game on multiple fronts to be good.

The scouting report from BA in 2007 said he had "plus raw power" and maybe if he can get consistent playing time, continue to develop his selectivity that power will start to translate.

 Bump for Robert.

Radio: For instance, it is not simply a bad thing to K. It is a bad thing to K and not hit HR in a complementary ratio; it is a bad thing to K and not BB; but all three outcomes must be taken in order.

Sounds like an Adam Dunn commercial. Too bad he is so terrible on defense or he would be one of the more valuable players in the league