radio silence:

brewhawk:

radio silence:

 For reference:

 

AL: 781 RS, 771 RA

NL: 718 RS, 727 RA

Someone is going to have to explain to me how in all of baseball, there has been one more run scored than there has been allowed.

 

Those are taken from B-R's estimates. They round without decimals.

I forgot about all those crazy fractional runs.

Bud Selig and all his innovatin' is gettin' tough to follow.

;-)

radio silence:

brewhawk:

radio silence:

 For reference:

 

AL: 781 RS, 771 RA

NL: 718 RS, 727 RA

Someone is going to have to explain to me how in all of baseball, there has been one more run scored than there has been allowed.

 

Those are taken from B-R's estimates. They round without decimals.

 

Here's a better approximation, taking NL RA/16, NL RS/16, AL RS/14, AL RA/14.

Again, this is all approximate.

AL: 781.2857 RS, 770.9286 RA (i.e., 781/771)

NL: 717.5625 RS, 726.625 RA (i.e., 718/727)

brewhawk:

radio silence:

 But it does matter for considering personnel moves in trades and free agency, which is the whole point of considering the runs environment.

Yeah.  The NL doesn't go around looking for DH's.

 

Which changes the requirements for elite offenses in the NL.

radio silence:

Jim Breen:

You make a fine point, but this does assume that Bush and Parra will maintain their 2009 production, which I find highly unlikely.

 

I agree completely Jim, but I'd be interested to know your opinion on the likely chances of improving / regressing given certain conditions, such as (a) Parra pitching more aggressively, (b) Parra gaining more endurance, (c) Bush regaining health, etc.

(a) Parra continues to say the right things during interviews regarding his aggressiveness, but he continues to throw more changeups and splitters and abandon the fastball compared to his 2007 season (despite the small sample size). He needs to up the fastball percentage and pound the strike zone like he began to during the second half.

(b) While Parra needs to gain more endurance on the mound, I think the biggest culprit is his mechanics. When he falls off in his pitching motion, his shoulder flies open. It causes his pitches to sail and lose any semblance of command. If Rick Peterson can help him pitch more aggressively and stay on more of a straight line through his pitching motion, Manny could become a solid #3.

(c) The Dave Bush we saw following the Hanley Ramirez line drive was not the Dave Bush I expect to see in 2010. The micro-tears in his biceps/triceps area caused him to battle severe arm fatigue, which eventually landed him on the DL. FanGraphs' velocity charts showed that his velocity varied dramatically from start to start. That obviously correlated to varied success on the mound.

If the offseason treats Bush well and he can return healthy in 2010, I suspect we will see the Dave Bush that helped anchor the rotation between mid-2009 and the Hanley Ramirez line drive incident.


I am quite the optimist, though...I admit.

Jim Breen:

radio silence:

Jim Breen:

You make a fine point, but this does assume that Bush and Parra will maintain their 2009 production, which I find highly unlikely.

 

I agree completely Jim, but I'd be interested to know your opinion on the likely chances of improving / regressing given certain conditions, such as (a) Parra pitching more aggressively, (b) Parra gaining more endurance, (c) Bush regaining health, etc.

(a) Parra continues to say the right things during interviews regarding his aggressiveness, but he continues to throw more changeups and splitters and abandon the fastball compared to his 2007 season (despite the small sample size). He needs to up the fastball percentage and pound the strike zone like he began to during the second half.

(b) While Parra needs to gain more endurance on the mound, I think the biggest culprit is his mechanics. When he falls off in his pitching motion, his shoulder flies open. It causes his pitches to sail and lose any semblance of command. If Rick Peterson can help him pitch more aggressively and stay on more of a straight line through his pitching motion, Manny could become a solid #3.

(c) The Dave Bush we saw following the Hanley Ramirez line drive was not the Dave Bush I expect to see in 2010. The micro-tears in his biceps/triceps area caused him to battle severe arm fatigue, which eventually landed him on the DL. FanGraphs' velocity charts showed that his velocity varied dramatically from start to start. That obviously correlated to varied success on the mound.

If the offseason treats Bush well and he can return healthy in 2010, I suspect we will see the Dave Bush that helped anchor the rotation between mid-2009 and the Hanley Ramirez line drive incident.


I am quite the optimist, though...I admit.

What do you think on the subject, Radio? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Jim Breen:

(a) Parra continues to say the right things during interviews regarding his aggressiveness, but he continues to throw more changeups and splitters and abandon the fastball compared to his 2007 season (despite the small sample size). He needs to up the fastball percentage and pound the strike zone like he began to during the second half.

Bingo!

(b) While Parra needs to gain more endurance on the mound, I think the biggest culprit is his mechanics. When he falls off in his pitching motion, his shoulder flies open. It causes his pitches to sail and lose any semblance of command. If Rick Peterson can help him pitch more aggressively and stay on more of a straight line through his pitching motion, Manny could become a solid #3.

I think #3 is a good ceiling for Parra; he reached that level in 2008 as a decent 3, and although his regression was severe in 2009, I don't think it's unrealistic to eventually expect him to reach that point again.

(c) The Dave Bush we saw following the Hanley Ramirez line drive was not the Dave Bush I expect to see in 2010. The micro-tears in his biceps/triceps area caused him to battle severe arm fatigue, which eventually landed him on the DL. FanGraphs' velocity charts showed that his velocity varied dramatically from start to start. That obviously correlated to varied success on the mound.

If the offseason treats Bush well and he can return healthy in 2010, I suspect we will see the Dave Bush that helped anchor the rotation between mid-2009 and the Hanley Ramirez line drive incident.

The Crew needs Bush to get healthy, he's a very important step in between Gallardo's trips to the mound every 5 days.

What I am concerned about is how bad his control was upon attempting to retutn from injury. I hope that was temporary.