badger80:

willie key:

Does anyone have Bill james 2009 predictions and compare those to what actually happened.

What would you like to see?  All of the different projections are on FanGraphs, but I think you need to look at each player individually.  I haven't found a way to sort by team.

I just wanted to see how accurate these are.  I thought they might have this together by team.

TheDude:

 I'm just wondering why James' has Braun and Fielder declining in production.  They didn't do anything ridiculous to get the numbers they produced.  That's a pretty decent drop in OBP for Prince.

It's just interesting to see that for guys who are approaching the peak of their careers.

Fielder's OBPs in 2007 and 2008 were .395 and .372, so it kind of splits the difference.  His SLG also dropped from .618 to .507.  Those projections are an increase from 2008 to 2009.

The big issue with Braun's projections is that he didn't live up to his power number.  He show increased patience at the plate, but didn't hit teh ball as hard as the projections expected.

badger80:

The big issue with Braun's projections is that he didn't live up to his power number.  He show increased patience at the plate, but didn't hit teh ball as hard as the projections expected.

I believe both Ike and I predicted that this would happen.  That Braun would be more patient, but that would lead to him letting more hittable pitches do by in order to work the count. 

I understand to an extent why there's a projected decrease, but I can also see increased power from last year since it's logical that Braun could maintain the patience, but then improve on the pitch selection = better SLG.

I think this was natural "growing pains" for a guy who was a free swinger who's changing his approach for the better.

TheDude:

badger80:

The big issue with Braun's projections is that he didn't live up to his power number.  He show increased patience at the plate, but didn't hit teh ball as hard as the projections expected.

I believe both Ike and I predicted that this would happen.  That Braun would be more patient, but that would lead to him letting more hittable pitches do by in order to work the count. 

I understand to an extent why there's a projected decrease, but I can also see increased power from last year since it's logical that Braun could maintain the patience, but then improve on the pitch selection = better SLG.

I think this was natural "growing pains" for a guy who was a free swinger who's changing his approach for the better.

I don' know if I predicted it would happen, but I sure hoped it would.

I agree that this was probably a natural progression for Braun, and should pay off down the road.

TheDude:

badger80:

The big issue with Braun's projections is that he didn't live up to his power number.  He show increased patience at the plate, but didn't hit teh ball as hard as the projections expected.

I believe both Ike and I predicted that this would happen.  That Braun would be more patient, but that would lead to him letting more hittable pitches do by in order to work the count. 

I understand to an extent why there's a projected decrease, but I can also see increased power from last year since it's logical that Braun could maintain the patience, but then improve on the pitch selection = better SLG.

I think this was natural "growing pains" for a guy who was a free swinger who's changing his approach for the better.

Braun's power has been on the decline since his rookie season.  I think he's settling into a career as a mid-30's home run hitter.  I'd like to see his double consistently above 40.

Einsteinhood:

TheDude:

badger80:

The big issue with Braun's projections is that he didn't live up to his power number.  He show increased patience at the plate, but didn't hit teh ball as hard as the projections expected.

I believe both Ike and I predicted that this would happen.  That Braun would be more patient, but that would lead to him letting more hittable pitches do by in order to work the count. 

I understand to an extent why there's a projected decrease, but I can also see increased power from last year since it's logical that Braun could maintain the patience, but then improve on the pitch selection = better SLG.

I think this was natural "growing pains" for a guy who was a free swinger who's changing his approach for the better.

I don' know if I predicted it would happen, but I sure hoped it would.

I agree that this was probably a natural progression for Braun, and should pay off down the road.

You guys are more hopeful than I am.

Einsteinhood:

I agree that this was probably a natural progression for Braun, and should pay off down the road.

In a way, he's kind of like the anti-Bill Hall.  Hall had a big year.  He didn't adjust or learn from the mistakes he was making and pitchers took advantage of that.

Braun had a big year as a rookie, took some lumps in the second year, but came back with a new approach while maintaining very good production.

badger80:

Braun's power has been on the decline since his rookie season.  I think he's settling into a career as a mid-30's home run hitter.  I'd like to see his double consistently above 40.

Peak years for a player are what, 26-28?  So you're thinking it's likely this guy is settling while he's about to turn 26?

Much like you believe I'm too optimistic, I think it's clear you've never liked to be optimistic about Braun for a while, if not ever.

TheDude:

badger80:

Braun's power has been on the decline since his rookie season.  I think he's settling into a career as a mid-30's home run hitter.  I'd like to see his double consistently above 40.

Peak years for a player are what, 26-28?  So you're thinking it's likely this guy is settling while he's about to turn 26?

Much like you believe I'm too optimistic, I think it's clear you've never liked to be optimistic about Braun for a while, if not ever.

I want to state again for everyone that I think Braun is a great young player and am thrilled that he will play for the Brewers for more than a half decade.

What makes me cautious* about Braun is that his production is tied to his BA (and a high BABIP), so I think it will cause a lot of fluctuation in his numbers.  I'll freely admit that this is mostly opinion.  It won't surprise me if he bounces between a .290 and .330 from season to season.  When that happens, he OBP will probably be anywhere from .350-.390.  Even if he makes a lot of strides in his patience at the plate, I doubt he'll have the patience of a Prince Fielder and get in the habit of taking his base if he isn't getting a pitch, or working a walk when he's struggling a bit.  For a high contact hitter, he still strikes out a decent amount.

*By cautious, I mean that he'll be an MVP candidate every single year as some fans expect. That is a difficult thing to do.

Also, I don't like that his ISO SLG has been significantly dropping from season to season.  I know that you think this is due to a change in his approach.  I don't think that his approach is changing dramatically enough  to say that it will this drastically affect his power numbers.  Also, increased patience would cause his ISO to increase, or at least stay constant since he's swinging at better pitches.  Just something to watch.  The guy just completed his second full season, so the sky s still the limit.

Two things, badger:

(1) While I agree with you to some extent, I don't think anyone believed that a .630+ SLG was sustainable, so I'm not worried that it has decreased from that point because, well, that's superhuman.

(2) I do think going from 6.3% BB rate in 2008  to an 8+% BB rate in 2009 is significant.  I think it shows he was being more patient, which indicates a change in approach.  I think it's going to affect any player's power to let more pitches go by, and he needs time to adjust to that new approach.  Frankly, I'm shocked and excited that his SLG was essentially the same as 2008 - I think that's remarkable.

I've been labeled a Braun-hater plenty of times, but I do think that his SLG will increase as he becomes more comfortable with his patience.

ike1024:

Two things, badger:

(1) While I agree with you to some extent, I don't think anyone believed that a .630+ SLG was sustainable, so I'm not worried that it has decreased from that point because, well, that's superhuman.

(2) I do think going from 6.3% BB rate in 2008  to an 8+% BB rate in 2009 is significant.  I think it shows he was being more patient, which indicates a change in approach.  I think it's going to affect any player's power to let more pitches go by, and he needs time to adjust to that new approach.  Frankly, I'm shocked and excited that his SLG was essentially the same as 2008 - I think that's remarkable.

I've been labeled a Braun-hater plenty of times, but I do think that his SLG will increase as he becomes more comfortable with his patience.

I'm not saying that .630 was sustainable.  His SLG was .553 and .551 the past two seasons, but his ISO dropped from .286 to .231 (.310 as a rookie).  His groundball and flyball percentages flip flopped from 2007/2008 to 2009.

Ultimately, his BABIP for the past three seasons has been .367, .308, .355.  If that keeps fluctuating, he doesn't starting hitting the ball in the air like he did his first two seasons, and his walk rate doesn't make more than a 2% improvement, his numbers are going to jump around from year to year.  He'll still be productive, just not the .300/.400/.600 like some of the other elite players.

badger80:

I'm not saying that .630 was sustainable.  His SLG was .553 and .551 the past two seasons, but his ISO dropped from .286 to .231 (.310 as a rookie).  His groundball and flyball percentages flip flopped from 2007/2008 to 2009.

Ultimately, his BABIP for the past three seasons has been .367, .308, .355.  If that keeps fluctuating, he doesn't starting hitting the ball in the air like he did his first two seasons, and his walk rate doesn't make more than a 2% improvement, his numbers are going to jump around from year to year.  He'll still be productive, just not the .300/.400/.600 like some of the other elite players.

 

This is a great post, Badger.

There's a lot underlying Braun's production that leads me to believe that he will continue to be more of a contact-power hitter, and it will be interesting to see how much his BB% increases, and his K% decreases. He strikes out around an average rate, so I wonder if he'll be a candidate to strike out less as his patience improves and he decides to hit more singles (as he adjusted his approach at the end of 2009).

radio silence:

badger80:

I'm not saying that .630 was sustainable.  His SLG was .553 and .551 the past two seasons, but his ISO dropped from .286 to .231 (.310 as a rookie).  His groundball and flyball percentages flip flopped from 2007/2008 to 2009.

Ultimately, his BABIP for the past three seasons has been .367, .308, .355.  If that keeps fluctuating, he doesn't starting hitting the ball in the air like he did his first two seasons, and his walk rate doesn't make more than a 2% improvement, his numbers are going to jump around from year to year.  He'll still be productive, just not the .300/.400/.600 like some of the other elite players.

 

This is a great post, Badger.

There's a lot underlying Braun's production that leads me to believe that he will continue to be more of a contact-power hitter, and it will be interesting to see how much his BB% increases, and his K% decreases. He strikes out around an average rate, so I wonder if he'll be a candidate to strike out less as his patience improves and he decides to hit more singles (as he adjusted his approach at the end of 2009).

Thanks radio.  Braun is really interesting because his game is evolving, but his surface stats has remained somewhat steady.  We've seen him his over .300 a couple times, his OBP is in .370-.380 range, his SLG is above .550, but he's doing it in different ways.  If the planets align, I believe that he could put up that "magical" season, though on the flip side I think he could put up good numbers that the expectations from his rookie season will render a disappointment.

badger80:

Braun is really interesting because his game is evolving, but his surface stats has remained somewhat steady.

 

I think this is exactly right, and a lot of people miss it by only studying at-a-glance stats, like AVG/OBP/SLG.

Braun is a rather fascinating hitter in that regard. He doesn't have the consistent backbone of a hitter like Prince. My money is on Braun eventually fluctuating more towards the contact, free swinging end, and less towards the big-time true outcomes BB%, but that is not an indictment of his future success, either.

I think he will be a very good hitter even without a type of consistent backbone.

 So people have a clearer picture of what Badger and I are saying, here is my post on Braun from the Batting Luck thread:

Ryan Braun		BIP%	BABIP		BB%	K%	HR%
2007		0.63	0.361		0.056	0.228	0.069
2008		0.677	0.305		0.063	0.195	0.056
2009		0.685	0.353		0.081	0.171	0.045

 

Ryan Braun is nothing more than a pure hitter, and I would not be surprised to see his contact continue to rise, putting more balls in play, hopefully accompanied by maintaining his 2009 BB% improvements, progressively lower K%, and progressively lower HR%.

Braun seems to show more of a desire simply to hit, and he said so at the end of the year. I see him morphing into a Moises Alou style hitter, very high average, pretty decent HR, and swinging away, for the most part.

 

Look carefully at just how different his balls-in-play %, strike out %, and BABIP is each year.

The reason I think he will gravitate towards a contact end is taking his HR% decline, balls-in-play % increase, and K% decrease (along with a BB% increase) together, Braun seems to be selectively putting more balls in play just to hit -- and not necessarily with a power stroke, which is evident not only through his ISO, which Badger posted, but also his HR% decline and to a lesser extent his K% decrease (if you take K to be correlative with HR in the sense of whipping the bat through the zone in order to generate power, which also tends to generate Ks).