From Rome to NBA Rookie of the Year?
PER Diem: Nov. 2, 2009
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By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Gary Dineen/Getty ImagesRookie Brandon Jennings has given Bucks fans something to be excited about early in the season.
Blake Griffin? Tyreke Evans? Humbug. The rookie of the year race saw its first hat thrown in the ring this past weekend, and it didn't belong to either of those two.
Instead, Milwaukee rookie Brandon Jennings -- the 10th overall draft pick who most had thought would need quite a bit of seasoning -- rose to the fore with two very strong performances. On Friday, he nearly became the second rookie in NBA history to post a triple-double in his debut, finishing with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists, and then he added to his luster with a 16-point third-quarter explosion in a win over Detroit on Saturday.
Fortunately, Bucks-Pistons was part of my Saturday night viewing schedule, so I was treated to the lefty knocking in one jumper after another to help Milwaukee regain the lead, followed by an around-the-back reverse layup in transition that brought the house down. In the Bucks' 96-85 win, Jennings scored 24 points on 9-of-15 shooting, and after the admittedly small sample of two games, he leads all first-rounders in player efficiency rating.
His performance is a major surprise given how poorly he played in Europe last season. Normally there's a very reliable translation between how a player performs in Euroleague games and how he'll perform in the NBA. Jennings' translated stats were 11.4 points per 40 minutes, 34.1 percent shooting and an 8.06 PER. Suffice it to say that it seems he'll comfortably exceed that projection.
Obviously, his was a special case. The typical translation involves a European player who has played multiple years in that environment and is much more familiar with the style of play across the pond. Jennings went to Rome straight out of high school and by all accounts improved significantly as the season went on.
Nonetheless, the early returns have been a surprise, particularly regarding his shooting. In 16 Euroleague games, Jennings shot just 11-of-41 on 3s, and that's at a shorter distance than the pro line. This season, he's already 5-for-9 from distance in his two games. And with a smooth, high-arcing stroke, there doesn't seem to be any reason he can't continue to shoot well. Similarly, he shot only 45.7 percent on 2s overseas, which is fairly awful (the league average was 51.8 percent), but that hasn't been a problem for him stateside, either (11-for-22 so far).
Scouts also questioned Jennings' bona fides as a point guard, but he's involved teammates reasonably well in his first two games. He had only three assists Saturday but lost several potential dimes to misses by teammates -- most notably when Hakim Warrick flubbed a perfect alley-oop in transition. His instincts are definitely more as a scorer, but he was very patient offensively in the Detroit game.
If he has a weakness, it's at the defensive end. Jennings is quick and will get his share of steals, but fouls are a concern. He had five in each of the Bucks' first two games, and at that rate he'll have a hard time averaging enough minutes to snag the rookie of the year award. He had a lot of trouble with the size of Detroit's Rodney Stuckey during the first half especially, and big guards may give him trouble all season. He'll get a stern test against one of the biggest -- Chicago's Derrick Rose -- in his next game Tuesday night.
Nonetheless, his European experiment appears to have been a beneficial experience. Jennings got a chance to play and improve, not to mention a serious ego check. Although he didn't put up great numbers in Rome, his learnings from playing there enabled him to be among the league's readiest rookies, even though he never played one collegiate game.
That, clearly, will be food for thought for other youngsters who contemplate the same decision. In fact, it eventually could undermine the NBA's efforts to raise the age minimum from 19 to 20 years old, because it doesn't really help the league if its future stars are laboring in obscurity in Europe rather than building fans in the NCAA. If Jennings does end up as a surprise rookie of the year winner, the current trickle of prep stars across the Atlantic could quickly become a torrent.