cor232000:

I would do a 5, year 80 million dollar deal for Lackey.  It's a big risk, but as you said could reap a big reward as well.  If he gets hurt or it blows up in your face, you trade Prince anyways to rebuild somewhat..  It's a big risk for the Brewers, but you're gonna have to roll the dice at some point before Braun and Fielder's time together is over, IMO.

I tend to agree.

It's a big risk, but I'm starting to think it would be a bigger risk not to throw everything at the wall for the last two years of the Fielder/Braun combo, because once that combo is gone it's unlikely we'll see something as good as it for a while.

Things need to be carefully considered and all aspects need to be looked at, but I can see a way where this would make sense.

Lake County:

As opposed to any other type of MLB speculation on 11-6?

 

I meant more about the fact that it's, at best, a longshot that they'll even make a serious run at him.

Einsteinhood:

cor232000:

I would do a 5, year 80 million dollar deal for Lackey.  It's a big risk, but as you said could reap a big reward as well.  If he gets hurt or it blows up in your face, you trade Prince anyways to rebuild somewhat..  It's a big risk for the Brewers, but you're gonna have to roll the dice at some point before Braun and Fielder's time together is over, IMO.

I tend to agree.

It's a big risk, but I'm starting to think it would be a bigger risk not to throw everything at the wall for the last two years of the Fielder/Braun combo, because once that combo is gone it's unlikely we'll see something as good as it for a while.

Things need to be carefully considered and all aspects need to be looked at, but I can see a way where this would make sense.

Wha?!?

When I say this, you call it "instant gratification"

This is a total changing of the tune for you.

brewhawk:

Einsteinhood:

cor232000:

I would do a 5, year 80 million dollar deal for Lackey.  It's a big risk, but as you said could reap a big reward as well.  If he gets hurt or it blows up in your face, you trade Prince anyways to rebuild somewhat..  It's a big risk for the Brewers, but you're gonna have to roll the dice at some point before Braun and Fielder's time together is over, IMO.

I tend to agree.

It's a big risk, but I'm starting to think it would be a bigger risk not to throw everything at the wall for the last two years of the Fielder/Braun combo, because once that combo is gone it's unlikely we'll see something as good as it for a while.

Things need to be carefully considered and all aspects need to be looked at, but I can see a way where this would make sense.

Wha?!?

When I say this, you call it "instant gratification"

This is a total changing of the tune for you.

No, it isn't.

I've said it before. I made the case for trying to get Halladay this summer based on this notion.

We actually had a whole discussion about this at some point within the context of trading or not trading Fielder (either you push hard to get the chamionship with him or you trade him, you don't play it half assed).

This isn't a new notion for me. It is the first time I've extended the notion towards this player in specific, but it's not at all a new concept.

 

You have anything to add other than silly gotcha BS?

This off-season scares the crap out of me.

 

I agree with Einstein in that maybe you have to go for it with Lackey.

 

However, I don't think the Brewers will get him simply because of the fact that he's the best P out there. Other teams will outbid for him.

So then Melvin will panic and sign some crappy pitchers like Washburn that the sports radio zealots will love and will send the Brewers back to 1984.

brewguru:

However, I don't think the Brewers will get him simply because of the fact that he's the best P out there. Other teams will outbid for him.

So then Melvin will panic and sign some crappy pitchers like Washburn that the sports radio zealots will love and will send the Brewers back to 1984.

That is the terrifying thing about all this.

Like Badger said, Melvin is probably doing this backward. Spend money on the bats you need to fill the gaps and use the trade pieces you have to upgrade the pitching is probably the right play, but that ain't happening apparently.

I guess this is why Melvin does not impress me as a GM.

Any one on this board could identify Lackey as the top FA pitcher. While he is a fine pitcher, I would not over pay him as he approaches 32 years of age.

Which is exactly what you do when you sign top shelf FA pitchers, you grossly over pay.

I want to see a little more creativity out of the guy.

Right now there are two or three pitchers who other GMs will ID who have struggled previously or are cominig off two injury filled seasons that will be solid front of the rotation starters in 2010. The good GMs will identify a guy like that.

Some of it luck but there are GMs who seem to get lucky on a regular basis.

Melvin is not one of them.

brewguru:

This off-season scares the crap out of me.

 

I agree with Einstein in that maybe you have to go for it with Lackey.

 

However, I don't think the Brewers will get him simply because of the fact that he's the best P out there. Other teams will outbid for him.

So then Melvin will panic and sign some crappy pitchers like Washburn that the sports radio zealots will love and will send the Brewers back to 1984.

Exactly right.

I am already sensing another custom-made 80 win season for 2010. At least Melvin made some moves, I guess.

Randy Wolf is a similar pitcher to Lackey and would come for half the price

brandx:

Randy Wolf is a similar pitcher to Lackey and would come for half the price

No, he's not.

He's not even CLOSE.

Einsteinhood:

brandx:

Randy Wolf is a similar pitcher to Lackey and would come for half the price

No, he's not.

He's not even CLOSE.

Oh, and there was much written last offseason about the fact that he wasn't willing to leave the west coast and the Dodgers are extremely likely to resign him anyway.

Not generally a Buster Olney fan (at all) but this is undeniably interesting....

 

Where top available aces could land

Sunday, November 8, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

More than 125 pitchers will be available in the winter after all the free-agent filings and non-tenders are completed. But far too few front-line starting pitchers -- the kind who can lead a pitching staff through a long summer, the type who can carry the responsibility of being a staff's ace -- will be on the market.

Roy Halladay certainly fits that description, and it's fairly evident his time in Toronto is nearing an end. He will be eligible for free agency after next season and has told the Blue Jays that above all else, he wants a chance to win. Toronto is in the midst of restructuring, and Halladay's timeline might not fit the team's timeline, as new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos conceded recently during an online chat. The Jays won't market Halladay as they did in July, but they will listen to the offers that inevitably will be thrown at them.

Some rival executives are convinced that Atlanta's Javier Vazquez, who was arguably one of the four best pitchers in the National League this past season, will be traded in the weeks ahead. Vazquez will make $11.5 million next season before becoming eligible for free agency, so the Braves might be compelled to move him now to take advantage of his value. Atlanta needs a right-handed-hitting outfielder, and the other possible trade pieces on the Braves' pitching staff -- Derek Lowe (who is owed $45 million over the next three seasons) and Kenshin Kawakami (owed $13.3 million over the next two seasons) -- do not generate much enthusiasm among some rival talent evaluators.

Vazquez went 15-10 in 2009 with a 2.87 ERA, 238 strikeouts and just 44 walks in 219.1 innings after posting ERAs of 4.84, 3.67 and 4.74 in his previous three seasons with the White Sox. The Braves have other pitchers around which to build their staff -- Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and the newly signed Tim Hudson -- and probably could get a decent young hitter in return for Vazquez.

Meanwhile, John Lackey, the best available free-agent pitcher, is capable of leading a staff, as he has demonstrated for years with the Angels. The concern about Lackey's health -- the 31-year-old missed the beginning of the past two seasons with elbow trouble -- probably will preclude him from signing a nine-figure deal, but he'll get more money than any other pitcher in the winter.

A handful of teams are said to be ready and willing to pay the price to land an ace.

1. Milwaukee Brewers: Remember, it was only a year ago when Milwaukee offered CC Sabathia a $100 million deal, so the Brewers clearly are prepared to pay big dollars for a big-time starting pitcher. And they have a clear need: Even with rising star Yovani Gallardo anchoring the staff, Milwaukee ranked dead last in starters' ERA at 5.37 and 27th in rotation innings this past season.

The Brewers conceivably could enter into trade conversations for Vazquez or Halladay, but this course would be problematic. Milwaukee traded aggressively in 2007 and 2008, most notably for Sabathia, and this depleted its farm system. Trading a top young player for a one-year rental like Vazquez or Halladay might not make sense.

It probably would make more sense for the Brewers to take a serious run at Lackey, who as a free agent would not cost them talent in trade. He would take pressure off Gallardo and fit their team culture.

The Brewers also could easily structure a Lackey deal to fit their payroll into the future. Jeff Suppan's contract will expire after next season, and the only real long-term obligation the Brewers have set in stone is to young slugger Ryan Braun, who is signed through the 2015 season. Milwaukee just reduced salary obligations by trading J.J. Hardy to the Twins and replacing Mike Cameron (who made $10 million last season) with Carlos Gomez.

Look, there will be questions about the Brewers' lineup next season given that they will have a group of hitters who don't do certain things very well -- Gomez doesn't get on base consistently, Jason Kendall doesn't hit for power (a .305 on-base percentage this past season), Rickie Weeks doesn't seem to stay healthy and Corey Hart has been a picture of inconsistency.

But the Brewers cannot win unless they improve their starting pitching dramatically, and Lackey, if healthy, would do that.

2. Texas Rangers: They were one of the teams most aggressively pursuing Halladay at the trade deadline, and if they could land one of the big three available aces -- Halladay, Vazquez or Lackey -- they could have a formidable pitching staff next season if Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz (13 hits allowed in 31 innings with 39 strikeouts) continue to develop as expected.

Lackey would fit for many reasons -- he grew up and played college ball in Texas; he's had success in the AL West Division -- but it's unknown whether the Rangers have any chance to make an aggressive multiyear offer for the right-hander, given how their ownership is in a state of flux. The timing just might not be right.

Rather, the Rangers might be more inclined to make a deal for a one-year fix like a Halladay or Vazquez, and there already are rumblings that the Braves and Rangers have discussed Vazquez. What would the Rangers have to surrender?

First baseman Chris Davis could fit in Atlanta, but he's coming off a poor season and probably wouldn't be enough. Talent evaluators for other teams wonder whether Josh Hamilton is in the Rangers' long-term plans. "Who knows what to expect?" one scout asked. "He's had one great season and he was hurt most of last season, and when he did play, he wasn't that great." Hamilton had an OPS of .741 in 89 games for the Rangers in 2009.

What about Nelson Cruz, who emerged at age 29 to have a solid season of 33 homers and a .856 OPS? For the Braves, he would be relatively cheap, could have some impact hitting fifth or sixth in their lineup and has the potential for high impact. There would be questions about Cruz's home-road splits (his OPS at home last season was 153 percentage points higher in Texas than on the road), but there might be some common ground for the Braves and Rangers here.

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: They set themselves up for Lackey's possible departure by trading for Scott Kazmir in August, and based on how negotiations progressed -- or didn't -- they seem to have a fairly hard line on what kind of investment they're willing to make in Lackey, whom they know better than any other team. They could be OK if he walks away, so long as Kazmir continues to improve and Ervin Santana bounces back.

But they obviously would have a big hole at the front of their rotation, and on paper they do match up with the Jays in some ways for a deal for Halladay. Toronto could use young infielders, and the Angels have a wealth of young infielders.

The hardworking, diligent Halladay would be a perfect fit for Mike Scioscia's clubhouse and the organization's culture. (Then again, Halladay would be a perfect fit just about anywhere.)

What follows is pure speculation: Could the Jays and Angels structure something around Halladay and Howie Kendrick (plus others), who could play first base for Toronto and give the Jays an excellent young core of hitters with Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Travis Snider?

4. Los Angeles Dodgers: Could use an ace, but it's unclear whether they are willing or able to land one. The great unknown, of course, is how much the McCourts' impending divorce will affect roster structuring, but it's hard to imagine L.A. getting deep into the bidding for Lackey. And the Dodgers really don't match up well with the Braves for any kind of Vazquez deal, because presumably they wouldn't consider trading Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier.

Los Angeles is expected to move at least one of its many arbitration-eligible players via trade. You might match Halladay with what the Dodgers have to offer -- Canada native Russell Martin plus others. But remember that Martin's OPS has dropped 162 points during the past two seasons. He also is climbing swiftly up the arbitration ladder; his salary might climb from $3.9 million last season to $6 million next season. In the end, the Dodgers might not get the ace they need.

Einsteinhood:

Remember, it was only a year ago when Milwaukee offered CC Sabathia a $100 million deal, so the Brewers clearly are prepared to pay big dollars for a big-time starting pitcher.

 

Not really though Buster.

Steves Stoners:

Einsteinhood:

Remember, it was only a year ago when Milwaukee offered CC Sabathia a $100 million deal, so the Brewers clearly are prepared to pay big dollars for a big-time starting pitcher.

 

Not really though Buster.

Yeah, well, expecting Buster to connect those dots (unless someone does it for him) is asking too much.

 MLBTR made their annual "guesses" on where they thought people were going.  I obviously wouldn't put much stock into it but they guess on Lackey to the Yankees.

 Washburn and Doug Davis to the Brewers

34.  Doug Davis - Brewers.  Davis was claimed off waivers by the Brewers in August, but they couldn't work out a deal with the D'Backs.  At the time, Davis liked the idea of returning to Milwaukee.  He'll probably have to back off his three-year demand to make it happen.

35.  Jarrod Washburn - Brewers.  Perhaps the Brewers won't sign these two mid-tier lefties, but they do figure to acquire a pair of starters somehow.  Washburn could make it easier on the Brewers by providing a hometown discount.  Otherwise, trading Mat Gamel could net an arm.