Brewers Message Board

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

MrQuestions — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:01:12 GMT

mikeyjay21:
I found these interesting, especially with Gamel. Brewer fans seem to have launched Gamel into the same upper tier status as LaPorta. But I think his big season in AA is causing him to be a bit overrated. Not only is defense a problem, but consider that scouts initially felt he had a lower ceiling than LaPorta for a reason, and the fact that he's only in AA so he can work with Don Money. There is a chance that these AA stats are a bit misleading and that he might not be able to adjust as well to major league pitching, and all things being equal, I'd say he's still a step below the top prospects in the league. I am not at all as comfortable with writing Gamel into the future lineups as others seem to be.

I don't know, it seems to me that LaPorta was perceived as having a higher ceiling because there was absolutely no doubt about his power. Gamel has shown that he is developing very good power this year, and it has launched him into elite prospect status. I don't think he'll be top 10 BA or anything, but probably around #20-#30 in the same range Laporta was in this year. I agree with you guys that defense is still a big question... he's got to play a position.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

Jim Breen — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:40:10 GMT

mikeyjay21:
I found these interesting, especially with Gamel. Brewer fans seem to have launched Gamel into the same upper tier status as LaPorta. But I think his big season in AA is causing him to be a bit overrated. Not only is defense a problem, but consider that scouts initially felt he had a lower ceiling than LaPorta for a reason, and the fact that he's only in AA so he can work with Don Money. There is a chance that these AA stats are a bit misleading and that he might not be able to adjust as well to major league pitching, and all things being equal, I'd say he's still a step below the top prospects in the league. I am not at all as comfortable with writing Gamel into the future lineups as others seem to be.

Anyone who has questioned Gamel's status as a prospect is only concerned about his defense.

He has a lower ceiling than LaPorta in terms of power, not with his bat overall. LaPorta is projected to be about a .260 hitter with 35-40 home runs. Gamel is projected to be a .290-.300 hitter with 20-25 home runs. I will take Gamel's bat any day of the week...especially one who can spray it to all sides of the field.

I understand the concern about his defense. He is below-average at third, but he is getting better...even if it is slowly. There are places to hide his defense if he cannot figure out third base -- and the Brewers are pretty committed to keeping him there. The Crew can stick him in left and move Braun or Hart to center. They can put him at first base if Doug decides to move Prince in the coming years.

With that said, Gamel is the best prospect in Milwaukee's system. His bat is special. Just because you cannot hit 40 homers a year does not mean you have a lower ceiling than someone who can. It's easy to forget that Gamel is hitting .370+ in a pitcher-friendly league. Scouts say the ball absolutely jumps off his bat and have heard comparables to hitters like Joe Mauer and Adrian Gonzalez. They don't have 40 homer a year power, but I'm pretty sure they would be welcome additions to the team...

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

badger80 — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:38:19 GMT

mikeyjay21:
badger80:
Todd (WI): You said you were lower on Alcides Escobar than some others, why? What are you thoughts on Mat Gamel?

Keith law: Escobar's approach at the plate is awful - swings at everything, no pitch recognition. I don't see him hitting for better than average power. He can run, has good bat speed, and has good actions at short. I don't see him as a superstar, but he's sort of acquired that sheen since the Brewers wouldn't include him in a Sabathia deal. Gamel's got power, no idea where you could play him on defense.
Chip (Chicago, IL): are Rasmus or Gamel top 10 prospects going into 2009?

Keith law: Rasmus yes, Gamel no.

I found these interesting, especially with Gamel. Brewer fans seem to have launched Gamel into the same upper tier status as LaPorta. But I think his big season in AA is causing him to be a bit overrated. Not only is defense a problem, but consider that scouts initially felt he had a lower ceiling than LaPorta for a reason, and the fact that he's only in AA so he can work with Don Money. There is a chance that these AA stats are a bit misleading and that he might not be able to adjust as well to major league pitching, and all things being equal. I am not at all as comfortable with writing Gamel into the future lineups of this team as others seem to be.

Escobar is a weird one because scouts on the SABR side are more likely to be skeptical where scouts like at Baseball America like his projectability.

I thought it was interesting that he listed LaPorta as the third prospect in the Cleveland system. He has an advanced bat, but he's not some fabulous surefire number one prospect in every system.

For the comment on Gamel's lack of position, it is nice to see that someone like Law actually thinks he has real power. One of the knocks or questions about his bat has been weather it has enough power to play in the outfield if he's moved from third base.

Most telling overall was the comment that the Brewers system has a lot of good talent, but no one is really outstanding. That isn't a bad thing, just a fact about the group that is currently moving through the system.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

crichar3 — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:36:01 GMT

mikeyjay21:
Brewer fans seem to have launched Gamel into the same upper tier status as LaPorta. But I think his big season in AA is causing him to be a bit overrated. Not only is defense a problem, but consider that scouts initially felt he had a lower ceiling than LaPorta for a reason, and the fact that he's only in AA so he can work with Don Money. There is a chance that these AA stats are a bit misleading and that he might not be able to adjust as well to major league pitching, and all things being equal, I'd say he's still a step below the top prospects in the league. I am not at all as comfortable with writing Gamel into the future lineups as others seem to be.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

mikeyjay21 — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:26:48 GMT

badger80:
Todd (WI): You said you were lower on Alcides Escobar than some others, why? What are you thoughts on Mat Gamel?

Keith law: Escobar's approach at the plate is awful - swings at everything, no pitch recognition. I don't see him hitting for better than average power. He can run, has good bat speed, and has good actions at short. I don't see him as a superstar, but he's sort of acquired that sheen since the Brewers wouldn't include him in a Sabathia deal. Gamel's got power, no idea where you could play him on defense.
Chip (Chicago, IL): are Rasmus or Gamel top 10 prospects going into 2009?

Keith law: Rasmus yes, Gamel no.

I found these interesting, especially with Gamel. Brewer fans seem to have launched Gamel into the same upper tier status as LaPorta. But I think his big season in AA is causing him to be a bit overrated. Not only is defense a problem, but consider that scouts initially felt he had a lower ceiling than LaPorta for a reason, and the fact that he's only in AA so he can work with Don Money. There is a chance that these AA stats are a bit misleading and that he might not be able to adjust as well to major league pitching, and all things being equal, I'd say he's still a step below the top prospects in the league. I am not at all as comfortable with writing Gamel into the future lineups as others seem to be.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

shipitdear — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:21:57 GMT

badger80:

Right now the Cubs are on pace for 94 win. That is within most preseason projections and will get them into the playoffs.

Right now the Brewers are on pace for 92 wins. That is a bit above their preseason projections, but they were on the cusp before the Sabathia trade and that boosted their probability of making the playoffs.

The NL West is pretty crappy and the chances are slim that the Wild Card comes from that division.

The NL East has stronger teams from top to bottom, which will make wins tougher to come by and make it more difficult for the Wild Card to come from that division.

I think you guys are getting upset because he's not fluffing the Brewers because they're playing well right now, and that he's not bashing the Cubs because they are playing poorly right now.

It actually doesn't upset me. I put myself in the "most fans" category I outlined above. When the Brewers were 6-7 games back or whatever I gave them next to no shot at catching the Cubs. Now they've made up almost all that ground and they have CC so I'm thinking they have a decent shot at the division. If they get up by 6 games next month I'm sure I'll feel like the division is theirs. Crichar talks about the game to game mentality fans have and I'm guilty of that. I think most of us are. I remember reading the LA Times Sports Page as a kid - when the Dodgers were really good. (Grew up hating them btw) They'd win a lot more than they'd lose but when they lost the beat reporter would always just rip the hell out of them and write in the most negative tone as if the on balance winning meant nothing. I think most fans and observers ride that game to game wave and make their year end "predictions" based on what the trend is that day. It's hard not to.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

Jim Breen — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:13:10 GMT

Neds 9:
Yep, these national media guys are all alike as you say. They just predict the future based on what's going on at the moment. I still remember John Kruk during May of last season predicting the Pirates would be in 1st place at the end of June. That predicition along with the millions of other predictions these media guys make never turn out to be right. Yet, everyone treats their predicitons when their making them like they're going to be right on the money.

Wait a minute...are you telling me that ESPN can be wrong? ;)

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

Neds 9 — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:01:49 GMT

shipitdear:

Jim Breen:

badger80:

Jim Breen:

Could he have avoided bashing the Cubs any more blatantly?

Heaven forbid ESPN upsets the big market teams....

Are you talking about the first question where he said that both team can probably make the playoffs? The Brewers are currently one game behind the Cubs, the Cubs are playing below what they usually do, and are still favorites to win the division. Keep some perspective on this win streak. The Brewers will cool off at some point. They will probably hit a serious skid at least one more time before the end of the season. This race is far from over.

I was more referring to the fact that he didn't answer the question at all. I realize the Brewers are still down in the Central and will undoubtedly cool off, but Law still could have said something like..."The Brewers are playing great ball right now and have a real chance at winning the division."

Instead, he's like...I think both will make the playoffs.

I just thought it was a dumb answer.

These guys are like most fans - they "predict" the future based on what's in front of them at that moment in time. Today, it does look like both the Cubs and Brewers have a good shot at the playoffs so he "predicts" it. I remember last year hearing Gammons (who I've always liked and respected) talking about our division when the Brewers had the big lead. He said something like, "the Cubs are a good club and I think they'll contend for the wild card but I don't see them as having enough to catch the Brewers." So he basically, was just reciting what was right in front of his face at the time. I'm not even faulting it - how often do you ever hear a guy go out on a limb in answering a question like that?

Yep, these national media guys are all alike as you say. They just predict the future based on what's going on at the moment. I still remember John Kruk during May of last season predicting the Pirates would be in 1st place at the end of June. That predicition along with the millions of other predictions these media guys make never turn out to be right. Yet, everyone treats their predicitons when their making them like they're going to be right on the money.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

Jim Breen — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:58:01 GMT

badger80:
Right now the Cubs are on pace for 94 win. That is within most preseason projections and will get them into the playoffs.
Right now the Brewers are on pace for 92 wins. That is a bit above their preseason projections, but they were on the cusp before the Sabathia trade and that boosted their probability of making the playoffs.
The NL West is pretty crappy and the chances are slim that the Wild Card comes from that division.
The NL East has stronger teams from top to bottom, which will make wins tougher to come by and make it more difficult for the Wild Card to come from that division.
I think you guys are getting upset because he's not fluffing the Brewers because they're playing well right now, and that he's not bashing the Cubs because they are playing poorly right now.

Nah. I just thought it was stupid he didn't take a stand. I would have rather him say the Cubs would win the division than avoid the question entirely.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

badger80 — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:54:55 GMT

Right now the Cubs are on pace for 94 win. That is within most preseason projections and will get them into the playoffs.

Right now the Brewers are on pace for 92 wins. That is a bit above their preseason projections, but they were on the cusp before the Sabathia trade and that boosted their probability of making the playoffs.

The NL West is pretty crappy and the chances are slim that the Wild Card comes from that division.

The NL East has stronger teams from top to bottom, which will make wins tougher to come by and make it more difficult for the Wild Card to come from that division.

I think you guys are getting upset because he's not fluffing the Brewers because they're playing well right now, and that he's not bashing the Cubs because they are playing poorly right now.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

shipitdear — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:43:39 GMT

Jim Breen:

badger80:

Jim Breen:

Could he have avoided bashing the Cubs any more blatantly?

Heaven forbid ESPN upsets the big market teams....

Are you talking about the first question where he said that both team can probably make the playoffs? The Brewers are currently one game behind the Cubs, the Cubs are playing below what they usually do, and are still favorites to win the division. Keep some perspective on this win streak. The Brewers will cool off at some point. They will probably hit a serious skid at least one more time before the end of the season. This race is far from over.

I was more referring to the fact that he didn't answer the question at all. I realize the Brewers are still down in the Central and will undoubtedly cool off, but Law still could have said something like..."The Brewers are playing great ball right now and have a real chance at winning the division."

Instead, he's like...I think both will make the playoffs.

I just thought it was a dumb answer.

These guys are like most fans - they "predict" the future based on what's in front of them at that moment in time. Today, it does look like both the Cubs and Brewers have a good shot at the playoffs so he "predicts" it. I remember last year hearing Gammons (who I've always liked and respected) talking about our division when the Brewers had the big lead. He said something like, "the Cubs are a good club and I think they'll contend for the wild card but I don't see them as having enough to catch the Brewers." So he basically, was just reciting what was right in front of his face at the time. I'm not even faulting it - how often do you ever hear a guy go out on a limb in answering a question like that?

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

Greg Brock......Who? — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:41:58 GMT

It was a stupid answer. He was asked a tough question and he bailed on it by making it about both team, not one over the other.

The idea that the Cubs could crash and burn late, like the ALWAYS do, is a strange, foreign idea to a lot of these national media types.

Fine with me....more pressure added to the Cubs at this point. I will always prefer being the chaser over being the chased. Much less pressure on us right now....

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

Jim Breen — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:30:22 GMT

badger80:
Jim Breen:
Could he have avoided bashing the Cubs any more blatantly?
Heaven forbid ESPN upsets the big market teams....
Are you talking about the first question where he said that both team can probably make the playoffs? The Brewers are currently one game behind the Cubs, the Cubs are playing below what they usually do, and are still favorites to win the division. Keep some perspective on this win streak. The Brewers will cool off at some point. They will probably hit a serious skid at least one more time before the end of the season. This race is far from over.

I was more referring to the fact that he didn't answer the question at all. I realize the Brewers are still down in the Central and will undoubtedly cool off, but Law still could have said something like..."The Brewers are playing great ball right now and have a real chance at winning the division."

Instead, he's like...I think both will make the playoffs.

I just thought it was a dumb answer.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

badger80 — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:28:14 GMT

Jim Breen:
Could he have avoided bashing the Cubs any more blatantly?
Heaven forbid ESPN upsets the big market teams....

Are you talking about the first question where he said that both team can probably make the playoffs? The Brewers are currently one game behind the Cubs, the Cubs are playing below what they usually do, and are still favorites to win the division. Keep some perspective on this win streak. The Brewers will cool off at some point. They will probably hit a serious skid at least one more time before the end of the season. This race is far from over.

Re: KLaw Chat - Just the Brewers stuff (for the most part)

Jim Breen — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:21:45 GMT

Could he have avoided bashing the Cubs any more blatantly?

Heaven forbid ESPN upsets the big market teams....