Brewers Message Board

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

willie key — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:13:58 GMT

wisblue:

willie key:

Wisblue,

We all know it can happen. The Brewers could not make the playoffs (luckily we have you to keep our high hopes in line). Heck they could lose the next 29 and finish under .500 everything is mathematically possible. BTW busting my chops on mathematically false accusations was a little over the top. If the Brewers go 16-13 the Cards have to play .679 ball just to tie. Lets say the we go 15-14, which BTW is the definition of "tanking it" with more than half the games against terrible (not just teams you think are bad, but terrible) teams. Here's what the Cards have to do to beat us out of the WC (go 19-9). Hou (2-1), Ariz (5-2), Fla (2-1), Chi (3-3), Pitt (2-1), Cin (5-1). Maybe they can go on that kind of run, They havent proven anything to me.

Im not saying its in the bag, the point is not measuring schedules against each other, its measuring our schedule. Its hard for a team to catch up four games when the competition is playing a majority of games against easy teams. Lets say we go 10-6 or 11-5 against the crappy teams. You know how bad we have to be to end up 15-14. Since May, I dont think we have had a bad run like that. I'll say it again the Cards f*** up and if we lose out to them in the WC its on us (unless they go 28-0, which Im sure you will tell me can happen)

The key to your discussion is "if the Brewers go 16-13". The Brewers may not have had a stretch like 15-14 since May, but they haven't had as many games against the top teams in the NL as they're going to have the rest of the way. The Cubs series at Miller Park is too fresh to assume anything.

Really, we aren't disagreeing. Going through the numbers this way is inevitable as the season draws to a close. I'm sure that Mets and Padres fans did it last year to convince themselves that the Phillies and Rockies were out of it.

I guess Im not making my point. You are telling us we wont make the playoffs if we dont win games. Well no S**t, that's a waste of a post. Its like you are enlightening us that if we go 12-17 we might not get in. Plus I am so sick of the Phillies/Rockies thing (not from you, but the media) that is a once in blue moon occurance. All these teams that hold out hope becuase look at the Rockies last year, they won 20 some games in a row. Well dont hold your breath. The Brewers have a big advantage, period. The Brewers could blow it, but I dont need you tell me that. I dont know what you've added to the discussion other than losing games is bad.

Answer these questions for me: 1. Do you think going 15-14 is "blowing it" or do you think there is a better than good chance of us going .500. If so give me a record in those series. Put it on paper. I want to see how pessimistic you are. 2. Do you think my prediction of St Louis series records is realisitc or do you think that they will even come close to those series records (because I dont).

Plus, I dont think we agree on the numbers. The Brewers have an 80% chance of going than not. Im trying to put a realistic spin on this. What can we honestly expect from the Brewers and from the competition. But you served your purpose, I will watch out for other teams if lose 25 of the next 29 or whatever.

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

Brewin — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:45:00 GMT

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Nt to say it is the only projection system out there, but the playoff odds as of today do paint a favorable picture for the crew...

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

wisblue — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:30:41 GMT

willie key:

Wisblue,

We all know it can happen. The Brewers could not make the playoffs (luckily we have you to keep our high hopes in line). Heck they could lose the next 29 and finish under .500 everything is mathematically possible. BTW busting my chops on mathematically false accusations was a little over the top. If the Brewers go 16-13 the Cards have to play .679 ball just to tie. Lets say the we go 15-14, which BTW is the definition of "tanking it" with more than half the games against terrible (not just teams you think are bad, but terrible) teams. Here's what the Cards have to do to beat us out of the WC (go 19-9). Hou (2-1), Ariz (5-2), Fla (2-1), Chi (3-3), Pitt (2-1), Cin (5-1). Maybe they can go on that kind of run, They havent proven anything to me.

Im not saying its in the bag, the point is not measuring schedules against each other, its measuring our schedule. Its hard for a team to catch up four games when the competition is playing a majority of games against easy teams. Lets say we go 10-6 or 11-5 against the crappy teams. You know how bad we have to be to end up 15-14. Since May, I dont think we have had a bad run like that. I'll say it again the Cards f*** up and if we lose out to them in the WC its on us (unless they go 28-0, which Im sure you will tell me can happen)

The key to your discussion is "if the Brewers go 16-13". The Brewers may not have had a stretch like 15-14 since May, but they haven't had as many games against the top teams in the NL as they're going to have the rest of the way. The Cubs series at Miller Park is too fresh to assume anything.

Really, we aren't disagreeing. Going through the numbers this way is inevitable as the season draws to a close. I'm sure that Mets and Padres fans did it last year to convince themselves that the Phillies and Rockies were out of it.

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

willie key — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:44:33 GMT

Wisblue,

We all know it can happen. The Brewers could not make the playoffs (luckily we have you to keep our high hopes in line). Heck they could lose the next 29 and finish under .500 everything is mathematically possible. BTW busting my chops on mathematically false accusations was a little over the top. If the Brewers go 16-13 the Cards have to play .679 ball just to tie. Lets say the we go 15-14, which BTW is the definition of "tanking it" with more than half the games against terrible (not just teams you think are bad, but terrible) teams. Here's what the Cards have to do to beat us out of the WC (go 19-9). Hou (2-1), Ariz (5-2), Fla (2-1), Chi (3-3), Pitt (2-1), Cin (5-1). Maybe they can go on that kind of run, They havent proven anything to me.

Im not saying its in the bag, the point is not measuring schedules against each other, its measuring our schedule. Its hard for a team to catch up four games when the competition is playing a majority of games against easy teams. Lets say we go 10-6 or 11-5 against the crappy teams. You know how bad we have to be to end up 15-14. Since May, I dont think we have had a bad run like that. I'll say it again the Cards f*** up and if we lose out to them in the WC its on us (unless they go 28-0, which Im sure you will tell me can happen)

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

wisblue — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:15:11 GMT

willie key:

WisBlue,

The point is not just the schedule, its that the Cards are going to have probably play .667 ball, if we just slightly play over .500. The Brewers are going to have to tank it. The Cards f*****d up this series, not us. The Cards have shown me nothing at all in beating good teams over a sustained period. Plus not all series are created equal. The Cubs could be mailing it in by the last series

This is mathematically false. If the Brewers play "slightly over .500", they would go 15-14 and finish 92-70. To equal that, the Cardinals would have to go 18-10 (.642). I think we have to expect that the Cardinals can do that well down the stretch. For the Brewers to win half of their remaining games they are going to have to do better than they have historically against the Phillies, Mets, Cubs, and Reds AND avoid another appearance of the PNC hex.

Again, the Brewers have an edge, but it's hardly a large or insurmountable one. The schedule doesn't help them, in fact I think it works more against them. Either way, they have to show that they can finish down the stretch, and it's anyone's guess if they can do that.

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

wisblue — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:01:40 GMT

ike1024:

wisblue:

Please explain to me how the Cardinals schedule is "much tougher". Would you rather play 4 mediocre teams (2 of whom have no playoff hopes) or two weak teams and two strong teams who are fighting it out for the playoffs? It's a push at most, but I would rather be avoiding the best teams in the league down the stretch. The Phillies and Mets are in that category, and the Diamondbacks aren't. When it comes to the last few weeks, the difference between the non-contenders who are closer to .500 and the ones that are far below it is not that great because they are probably all going to be trying new players.

I think it depends on the pitching matchups to be honest. If it sets up for the Cardinals to face Webb/Haren four times, then 7 against the D-Backs will be tougher than 7 against the Mets/Phillies.

I also think you're discounting the fact that the Diamonbacks are going to be fighting for the playoffs as well, and they return a team of guys who did it last year, so they know what needs to be done.

That said, I certainly don't think the Brewers have a huge scheduling advantage over the Cards.

Well, for starters, the Cardinals will NOT be facing Webb OR Haren in their 3 game series next week because those guys are scheduled to go Saturday and Sunday in the DBacks more important games against the Dodgers. They won't be facing Oswalt in their series against the Astros this weekend either. The Brewers will be facing Santana (vs Sheets) on Monday, and Sabathia is not scheduled to pitch against either the Mets or Phils. I also note that Suppan's next two starts figure to be against the best pitchers of the Pirates (Maholm) and Padres (Peavy), making those games (theoretically against weak teams) tougher to win.

I am not discounting the fact that the Diamondbacks are fighting for a playoff spot. I just don't think they're very good, especially when they get past their top two pitchers. Maybe I'm swayed by the fact that the Brewers have gone 10-4 against them the last two seasons (even after the 5 run debacle in July) but have had trouble with the Mets (4-5) and Phils (3-6).

As I've said before, the Brewers advantage is not in the schedule, it's in the 3 1/2 game lead they currently have. They control their own destiny, but still have to prove that they can take advantage of that.

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

alffan — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:34:09 GMT

wisblue:

Einsteinhood:

wisblue:

The Cardinals are really in great shape. They have 7 games against the Diamondbacks, where the Brewers have 7 against the much stronger Mets and Phils. They could easily erase most of the 3 1/2 game deficit right there. The rest of the schedules are pretty much the same.

Are you kidding me?

This is worthy of Pravda in it's heyday.

The Cards have a much tougher schedule the rest of the way, as has been pointed out numerous times everywhere, and they play their next 13 against teams over .500 while the Brewers get the Pirates, Mets, Padres and Reds.

Where the hell did you come up with this crap?

This is not crap, it's simply the facts. The schedules are very close to even at best. Not all "above .500" teams are created equal. I personally think that the Mets (74-60) and Phillies (73-60) are a lot tougher than the Astros (67-66), Marlins (68-65 and fading), and DBacks (68-65 after getting swept by the Padres). Both teams play home and homes with the Cubs and Reds and a road series at Pittsburgh, so those cancel out. The differences in the schedules are that the Cards play 3 with the Astros, 7 with the Dbacks, and 3 with the Marlins, while the Brewers play 4 with the Phils, 3 with the Mets, 3 at home with the Pirates, and 4 with the Padres. Of these the Brewers theoretically have the two toughest series and the two weakest. The Cards just got done dusting off the Marlins (who are fading badly) 3 of 4 in Florida, so I don't see them being that dangerous.

Please explain to me how the Cardinals schedule is "much tougher". Would you rather play 4 mediocre teams (2 of whom have no playoff hopes) or two weak teams and two strong teams who are fighting it out for the playoffs? It's a push at most, but I would rather be avoiding the best teams in the league down the stretch. The Phillies and Mets are in that category, and the Diamondbacks aren't. When it comes to the last few weeks, the difference between the non-contenders who are closer to .500 and the ones that are far below it is not that great because they are probably all going to be trying new players.

Personally, I think the Brewers schedule is as tough or tougher than the Cardinals, and I can defend that argument without getting insulting about it.

This was pleasant. My plane landed and the Brewers were up 3-1... before I could get out the door of the airport it was 4-3 and by time I got to my car 5-3. I was getting play by play on the phone from someone. I hear Cameron missed the cutoff guy (or maybe didn't throw it to one) and Hardy bounced the supposed out at the plate.

Just seems like this team can't close teams out. They came so close last year and the infamous Ramirez home run ignited the Cubs run to the pennant. Here the Brewers had their chance to at least dispose of the Cardinals. However, a great manager and clutch players delivered in the pinch for St. Louis.

In all fairness, are the Brewers a good team? The answer is yes.

Are they a great team? Probably, not.

I was at the Yankees-Red Sox game last night. The Red Sox knew all they had to do was really win one game in that series and the Yankees were pretty much through and they not only won one - they won the first two.

My biggest complaint about Yost teams has been their inability to close teams out. The last two years we've seen them get so close to putting a team away, but they just can't seem to get over the hump. When I saw that 3-1 lead in the 8th, I was really hoping they could close it out and make a statement.

I did say coming in a split with the Cards would be suffice and this wasn't a killer loss necessarily on paper. However, I hope they can bounce back this weekend.

We also know that PNC Park has not been friendly to the Brewers. Do not underestimate the Pirates. Look what they did to fat mouth Zambrano yesterday. This series is important for Milwaukee with the Phils playing the Cubs.

The Brewers really need 2 of 3 at the very least. They've got some tough games coming up. Phillies and Mets are very much in the race - and the Cards kept themselves in it with the comeback tonight.

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

ike1024 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:29:41 GMT

wisblue:

Please explain to me how the Cardinals schedule is "much tougher". Would you rather play 4 mediocre teams (2 of whom have no playoff hopes) or two weak teams and two strong teams who are fighting it out for the playoffs? It's a push at most, but I would rather be avoiding the best teams in the league down the stretch. The Phillies and Mets are in that category, and the Diamondbacks aren't. When it comes to the last few weeks, the difference between the non-contenders who are closer to .500 and the ones that are far below it is not that great because they are probably all going to be trying new players.

I think it depends on the pitching matchups to be honest. If it sets up for the Cardinals to face Webb/Haren four times, then 7 against the D-Backs will be tougher than 7 against the Mets/Phillies.

I also think you're discounting the fact that the Diamonbacks are going to be fighting for the playoffs as well, and they return a team of guys who did it last year, so they know what needs to be done.

That said, I certainly don't think the Brewers have a huge scheduling advantage over the Cards.

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

willie key — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:29:21 GMT

WisBlue,

The point is not just the schedule, its that the Cards are going to have probably play .667 ball, if we just slightly play over .500. The Brewers are going to have to tank it. The Cards f*****d up this series, not us. The Cards have shown me nothing at all in beating good teams over a sustained period. Plus not all series are created equal. The Cubs could be mailing it in by the last series

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

ike1024 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:23:47 GMT

willie key:

ike1024:

willie key:

I'll count for you. 77 wins and 56 losses

Smart man - would you like to be team Radio / Ike's campaign advisor (isn't it weird that advisor can also be accurately spelled adviser?)?

I need to know what's your stance on the hot button issue: Rickie Weeks

I think everyone knows where I stand on our future all-star five hitter :)

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

wisblue — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:22:18 GMT

Einsteinhood:

wisblue:

The Cardinals are really in great shape. They have 7 games against the Diamondbacks, where the Brewers have 7 against the much stronger Mets and Phils. They could easily erase most of the 3 1/2 game deficit right there. The rest of the schedules are pretty much the same.

Are you kidding me?

This is worthy of Pravda in it's heyday.

The Cards have a much tougher schedule the rest of the way, as has been pointed out numerous times everywhere, and they play their next 13 against teams over .500 while the Brewers get the Pirates, Mets, Padres and Reds.

Where the hell did you come up with this crap?

This is not crap, it's simply the facts. The schedules are very close to even at best. Not all "above .500" teams are created equal. I personally think that the Mets (74-60) and Phillies (73-60) are a lot tougher than the Astros (67-66), Marlins (68-65 and fading), and DBacks (68-65 after getting swept by the Padres). Both teams play home and homes with the Cubs and Reds and a road series at Pittsburgh, so those cancel out. The differences in the schedules are that the Cards play 3 with the Astros, 7 with the Dbacks, and 3 with the Marlins, while the Brewers play 4 with the Phils, 3 with the Mets, 3 at home with the Pirates, and 4 with the Padres. Of these the Brewers theoretically have the two toughest series and the two weakest. The Cards just got done dusting off the Marlins (who are fading badly) 3 of 4 in Florida, so I don't see them being that dangerous.

Please explain to me how the Cardinals schedule is "much tougher". Would you rather play 4 mediocre teams (2 of whom have no playoff hopes) or two weak teams and two strong teams who are fighting it out for the playoffs? It's a push at most, but I would rather be avoiding the best teams in the league down the stretch. The Phillies and Mets are in that category, and the Diamondbacks aren't. When it comes to the last few weeks, the difference between the non-contenders who are closer to .500 and the ones that are far below it is not that great because they are probably all going to be trying new players.

Personally, I think the Brewers schedule is as tough or tougher than the Cardinals, and I can defend that argument without getting insulting about it.

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

willie key — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:21:58 GMT

ike1024:

willie key:

I'll count for you. 77 wins and 56 losses

Smart man - would you like to be team Radio / Ike's campaign advisor (isn't it weird that advisor can also be accurately spelled adviser?)?

I need to know what's your stance on the hot button issue: Rickie Weeks

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

ike1024 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:19:37 GMT

willie key:

I'll count for you. 77 wins and 56 losses

Smart man - would you like to be team Radio / Ike's campaign advisor (isn't it weird that advisor can also be accurately spelled adviser?)?

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

willie key — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:11:32 GMT

ike1024:

geddymd72:

The major losses this season were probably:

Cincinnatti early season Gagne extra innings disaster: 3-1 lead turnedinto a 4-3 loss.

Houston CV choke job 4-2 lead into a 7-4 loss

Houston Stetter disaster: 5-2 lead into 8-6 loss

Dodgers Mota choke 4-1 into a 6-4 loss

Red Sox 6-5 into a 7-6 loss

Washington loss by Mota's wild pitch in bottom of 9th: 7-6

Colorado 4-1 choke into a 6-4 loss. 5 run 8th with Mota involved.

Minnesota: 6-3 lead in the 5th choked into a 7-6 loss, primarily by the bullpen.

Cincinnatti choke job: 5-2 lead turned into a 6-5 loss by the bullpen and another wild pitch.

The Arizona choke job: 5-0 lead into a 6-5 loss in the 9th.

Then there's this game.

There's at least a good amount of multiple lead choke jobs in there. A handfull of them are multiple run leads into a multiple run losses. This bullpen can be pretty horrendous.

So I count five, I'll bet that puts Ned nowhere near that list of managers who consistently blow games like the way you descibed.

Would you like me to list the major victories that they've had? I'll bet it quantitatively blows this list out of the water, especially if we're counting games going back three months.

I'll count for you. 77 wins and 56 losses

Re: 8/27 Game Thread - Parra vs. Wainwright

ike1024 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 04:10:05 GMT

geddymd72:

The major losses this season were probably:

Cincinnatti early season Gagne extra innings disaster: 3-1 lead turnedinto a 4-3 loss.

Houston CV choke job 4-2 lead into a 7-4 loss

Houston Stetter disaster: 5-2 lead into 8-6 loss

Dodgers Mota choke 4-1 into a 6-4 loss

Red Sox 6-5 into a 7-6 loss

Washington loss by Mota's wild pitch in bottom of 9th: 7-6

Colorado 4-1 choke into a 6-4 loss. 5 run 8th with Mota involved.

Minnesota: 6-3 lead in the 5th choked into a 7-6 loss, primarily by the bullpen.

Cincinnatti choke job: 5-2 lead turned into a 6-5 loss by the bullpen and another wild pitch.

The Arizona choke job: 5-0 lead into a 6-5 loss in the 9th.

Then there's this game.

There's at least a good amount of multiple lead choke jobs in there. A handfull of them are multiple run leads into a multiple run losses. This bullpen can be pretty horrendous.

So I count five, I'll bet that puts Ned nowhere near that list of managers who consistently blow games like the way you descibed.

Would you like me to list the major victories that they've had? I'll bet it quantitatively blows this list out of the water, especially if we're counting games going back three months.